Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Minnesota @ Philadelphia: PICK VIKINGS +14.5 (odds off sportsbook.com 12:00 noon)

From a pure numbers standpoint its hard to against the Eagles. But games are not won by talent and stats alone. They are won but who plays with the most focus and effort. Now I'm not saying the Vikings will win this straight up, but I am giving them the edge for the 14.5 cover. I know what you're thinking, the Eagles are still fighting for the 2nd seed in the NFC so they'll be playing hard in this one, but I really don'y see them paying 100% all four quarters. For starters how seriously will the take a 5-9 Vikings team with an interm head coach with rookie Job Webb under center? Now that Joe Webb has had 2 full weeks of practice with the starters I think he'll do alright. Running backs Adrian Peterson will be back for this game and I expect him to have a pretty solid game. His carries may be limited coming back from an injury, but capable back up Toby Gerhard averages a solid 4.0 yards per carry. On the outsides the Vikings still have Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice along with Shiancoe at the TE position. I fully expect the Vikings to score at least between 21-28 points in this one. The Eagles have a mediocre defense, along with the worst red zone defense in the league (Tds to FG ratio in the red zone) They'll be missing starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley who is one of the best run stoppers in the league, so expect the Vikings the pound the ball often. Phily will also be missing safety Nate Allen in this one. With Webb's strong arm I am sure they'll be taking several shots downfield to Sydney Rice.

On Phily's offensive side of the ball there really isn't much to discuss in depth. We all know what they're capable of.

Going back to my argument about teams that are "superior" but failed to win or cover the spread. I'll focus on just this weeks games:

1) Dallas -7 @ Arizona- Cards win outright
2) San Diego -9 @ Cincy- Bengals win outright
3) Washington +7 Jacksonville-Skins win outright

Dallas is clearly superior from a statistically standpoint to Arizona, but the focus and effort lacked in the first quarter and that ultimately led to their defeat. SD and Jax NEEDED to win their respective games to stay in the playoff hunt, but without focus and 100% effort they both got beaten by worse teams.

All in all I think the extra two days off will go against the Phily. Often times a good offense that's in rhythm could be disrupted with situations such as these. In the end in doesn't come down to talent. It goes down to which team is the most focused, disciplined and gives the best effort, something the Vikings will have more of tonight. About 80% of the money will be on the Eagles tonight, fade the public and bet the

Vikings +14.5

Now you guys understand what I mean by "lack of focus."

P.S. sorry about some of those typos in the analysis. I typed up that analysis on a computer where the spell check wasn't working.

**hoku808pc** · 12-28-10, 11:05 PM

Great call again tonight Maxlock...

Looking forward to your next play...

**Capybara** · 12-29-10, 12:24 AM

Awesome call tonight, Max, you really nailed the Eagles' lack of focus and the Vikings' focus. Still no idea how you predicted the latter, but you nailed it, you fukk!

Can't believe I couldn't get the fukking over in this game. I mean come on, 14 points from the Eagles? They couldn't get their shit together for one more fukkin' TD?!!?!

**HiTMaNN** · 12-29-10, 12:35 AM

Max I was with you for this play next week I am back to following you 100%! Two weeks of breaking even lets make some money!! I am lucky I loaded up the Raven's play to keep me at a profit this week

Good call!

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

Awesome call tonight, Max, you really nailed the Eagles' lack of focus and the Vikings' focus. Still no idea how you predicted the latter, but you nailed it, you fukk!

Can't believe I couldn't get the fukking over in this game. I mean come on, 14 points from the Eagles? They couldn't get their shit together for one more fukkin' TD?!!?!

The whole focus thing was difficult to explain. It's really just a lot of watching football over the years and having that gamblers sixth sense.

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by HiTMaNN

Max I was with you for this play next week I am back to following you 100%! Two weeks of breaking even lets make some money!! I am lucky I loaded up the Raven's play to keep me at a profit this week

Good call!

:

Yea two straight weeks at 4-4

..I was getting use to winning weeks. Week 17 I promise you guys I will have a winning record!

**Chucker** · 12-29-10, 01:23 AM

Good call tonight Max...heres to rockin it next week

**shopbar picks** · 12-29-10, 01:59 AM

Once again thanx max. Started my week off with a huge bang.(my local goes tue to mon.)

**RJ89** · 12-29-10, 02:13 AM

Now that the Eagles lost, the Bears clinch a first-round bye and are all but guaranteed the 2 seed. If they win and the Saints and Falcons lose they will get home-field advantage. So their game against the Packers is pretty much meaningless and I wouldn't be suprised if they rested Cutler.

**dwang0725** · 12-29-10, 10:03 AM

Good job Max. Strong finish again this week. Didn't see Minn winning outright!

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by RJ89

Now that the Eagles lost, the Bears clinch a first-round bye and are all but guaranteed the 2 seed. If they win and the Saints and Falcons lose they will get home-field advantage. So their game against the Packers is pretty much meaningless and I wouldn't be suprised if they rested Cutler.

I think he'll still play three quarters to keep the starters fresh since they have a first round bye.

Either way I think the Packers rock them. Final score 30-10

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 11:28 AM

MAXLOCK NFL Handicapping

I went through my entire thread to get a week by week documented record and here's where I stand thus far:

Before coming on SBR (undocumented record) Week 1-9: 30-15-5 ATS=67%

Documented SBR Record Week 10-16: 32-19-2=63%

Since Joining SBR week 10 here is the week by week breakdown ATS:

Week 10: 5-2-1
Week 11: 3-4
Week 12: 7-1
Week 13: 5-2-1
Week 14: 4-2-1
Week 15: 4-4
Week 16: 4-4
Total: 32-19-2

*I played every single MNF game from weeks 10-16: Won 5 lost 2. That's how you pick them in primetime!

*Last two week I'm hitting only .500 with an 8-8 ATS record. I'll get it figured it out for week 17 and the playoffs.

**HiTMaNN** · 12-29-10, 11:51 AM

**Gilly86** · 12-29-10, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

:

Yea two straight weeks at 4-4

..I was getting use to winning weeks. Week 17 I promise you guys I will have a winning record!

Probably the one poster on sbr that I have 0 doubts about when I read this

**low Q** · 12-29-10, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

I think he'll still play three quarters to keep the starters fresh since they have a first round bye.

Either way I think the Packers rock them. Final score 30-10

so is that an official pick? packers by 20?

great job, by the way, on the last 2 nights games

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by low Q

so is that an official pick? packers by 20?

great job, by the way, on the last 2 nights games

Thanks

Yes it will most certainly be an official pick for good reasons, but I still don't see a line on that game? If Phily would have won last night then GB would have probably been -6 over the Bears. Now that Phily lost, this assures the Bears the #2 seed automatically. Therefore the line on that game could sore as high as GB -10. (Chicago can still get the #1 seed with a win over GB and an Atlanta lose)

**gilbert91016** · 12-29-10, 12:50 PM

Packers -10 on Betcris

**gilbert91016** · 12-29-10, 12:51 PM

O/u 41.5

**low Q** · 12-29-10, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Thanks

Yes it will most certainly be an official pick for good reasons, but I still don't see a line on that game? If Phily would have won last night then GB would have probably been -6 over the Bears. Now that Phily lost, this assures the Bears the #2 seed automatically. Therefore the line on that game could sore as high as GB -10. (Chicago can still get the #1 seed with a win over GB and an Atlanta lose)

yep -10 on 5d

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 01:26 PM

SUNDAY EARLY RELEASE #1: odds off sportsbook.com as of 1:20 pm eastern

Houston +2.5 over Jacksonville (Personally I'd feel confident taking HOUSTON ML)

**low Q** · 12-29-10, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

SUNDAY EARLY RELEASE #1: odds off sportsbook.com as of 1:20 pm eastern

Houston +2.5 over Jacksonville (Personally I'd feel confident taking HOUSTON ML)

that's weird..... it's not listed on 5d... time to get a new book

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by low Q

that's weird..... it's not listed on 5d... time to get a new book

They announced Garrard won't play and MJD is also probably out. 5D must've taken it off because of Garrard being out, but many books still have Houston +2.5 on the board. Once 5D posts it back up it'll probably be a PK.

**CROANT** · 12-29-10, 04:35 PM

Let's go for Week 12-like results!

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by CROANT

Let's go for Week 12-like results!

Right now there's four games I like. Shooting for a 4-0 week.

**jas19illini** · 12-29-10, 06:29 PM

sportsbook.com has GB -10

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 07:12 PM

MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING WEEK 17 SLATE: odds off sportsbook.com as of 7:00 pm

1) Houston +2.5 over Jacksonville
2) St. Louis -3 over Seattle
3) Green Bay -10 over Chicago
4) *Pending*

**I'll have a write-up on the St. Louis-Seattle match up Thursday noon.

**joeygats** · 12-29-10, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING WEEK 17 SLATE: odds off sportsbook.com as of 7:00 pm

1) Houston +2.5 over Jacksonville
2) St. Louis -3 over Seattle
3) Green Bay -10 over Chicago
4) *Pending*

**I'll have a write-up on the St. Louis-Seattle match up Thursday noon.

whats your record? i like all the picks btw. adding dal might be a good idea?

**StackinGreen** · 12-29-10, 07:36 PM

I like what you're doing here, Max. These picks look very nice.

You know I'm playing GB since I said they'd go to Super Bowl pre-NYG game. I'm killin this shizzy

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by joeygats

whats your record? i like all the picks btw. adding dal might be a good idea?

Scroll up a little a few posts. I have my record broken down week by week..

Not sure about Dallas yet.

**Maxlock** · 12-29-10, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I like what you're doing here, Max. These picks look very nice.

You know I'm playing GB since I said they'd go to Super Bowl pre-NYG game. I'm killin this shizzy

Thanks man. Gb was also my pre season Superbowl pick! Still rolling with them. They're one of the hottest teams right now and I think they'll do some major damage in the playoffs.

**StackinGreen** · 12-29-10, 10:34 PM

Why so big against Chicago? If you want you can PM me, I'll tell you my thoughts too.

Keep up the good work. I'm at 7 in a row, and with Oklahoma St. covering tonight as well as Vandy 2H (only hoops team I touch) it looks like I'm on a dream run ...

**dwang0725** · 12-30-10, 10:03 AM

On it Max. Good luck this week.

**HiTMaNN** · 12-30-10, 11:58 AM

Waiting for my book to post lines when they do we are going 4 - 0 this week baby!!!

**SteelerNation704** · 12-30-10, 12:18 PM

Bookmaker has Houston as a 3 point favorite. I'm still tempted to take it if Garrard and MJD will be out...

**Maxlock** · 12-30-10, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by SteelerNation704

Bookmaker has Houston as a 3 point favorite. I'm still tempted to take it if Garrard and MJD will be out...

Wow quite a difference. I haven't checked the lines of late, but even at -3 Houston I'd still take them.