Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

**hoku808pc** · 12-25-10, 03:22 PM

5Dimes has it now... Jets +2

**low Q** · 12-25-10, 05:19 PM

Got it.thanks

**martinmobley** · 12-25-10, 06:44 PM

Some of you guys out there need to lay off the criticisms. Let max do his thing. If you don't like the way he runs his thread, start your own. If you want to put weighted units on your own bets. Do it. If you want him to prove his record, read the damn thread. You guys sound like a bunch of babies.

**Dexter** · 12-25-10, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Pretty much let's say if you have 3 picks on any given Sunday and you lose your lock but win the other 2, you'll end up 2-1 but on the losing side moneywise. My way I'd rather keep all games even and come out on top.

I'll do some hypothetical "lock testing" and see how I do. If it works well ill start using units next season.

its a more conservative way of betting and there is nothing wrong with that approach. all you have to do is hit about 53% of your plays (not that 53% is so easy) to make some money...

GL this weekend

**shopbar picks** · 12-25-10, 10:07 PM

thanx max

**shopbar picks** · 12-25-10, 10:26 PM

prev. Post. I meant thanx for info on dallas on holliday games. Nobody predicts two picks for TD`S. On to sunday

**Maxlock** · 12-25-10, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

prev. Post. I meant thanx for info on dallas on holliday games. Nobody predicts two picks for TD`S. On to sunday

**martinmobley** · 12-25-10, 11:15 PM

On to tomorrow. Max, I don't need an in depth write up, but can you give me a little info behind choosing the under on SD and cin? Also, I can only get it at 42.5 now. Would it be a no play for you then?

**TMoney33** · 12-25-10, 11:28 PM

Thanks for the ideas Max. Merry Christmas!

**Maxlock** · 12-25-10, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by martinmobley

On to tomorrow. Max, I don't need an in depth write up, but can you give me a little info behind choosing the under on SD and cin? Also, I can only get it at 42.5 now. Would it be a no play for you then?

Over/Unders are pretty tricky. Generally I dont like playing them. I think I've only played 4 or 5 all year. At 42.5 I would not play it. I'd only play it at 44, if it was 43 or 43.5, you'd have the option of buying, but at 42.5 its just too little. You can wait till gametime and see if it changes...

For this game I'm pretty much relying on numbers. With Ocho Cinco questionable and possbly out and with T.O definetly out, you'll see Cincy pound the ball often with Cedric Benson. SD is second in the league giving up only 3.7 yards per carry, they've also only given up 5 rushes all years that have eclipsed 20+ yards on one single carry, good for 3rd in that department. SD is just as good in the passing game as they give up only 170 yards in the air, good for #1 in the league. SD is also tied for first with 44 sacks. So expect Cincy to try to grind it out on the ground, with a limited Ocho Cinco and without T.O, they're whole offense wil be limited.

On San Diego's side, they'll once again be playing without TE Gates and WR Malcolm Floyd. In recent weeks SD has emphasized the ground attack with Tolbert and Matthews and occasionally Sproles. Cincy is towards the bottom the league in stopping so it should SD should continue to stay with ther ground game throughout. Cicny has a decent secondary ranking 18th in passing yards allowed so I don't expect Rivers to have a huge day.

All in all this game means little to the Bengals, while SD is still fighting for the postseason. I expect SD to put the clamps on the Bengals early. Once they have the game wrapped up in the third quarter, the Chargers will keep on pounding the ball.

San Diego 27- Cincinnatti 10

**Maxlock** · 12-26-10, 01:03 AM

I may have a solid play on the Sunday Night game between Minnesota and Phily. Check back about 2 hours before that game kicks off

**shopbar picks** · 12-26-10, 01:30 AM

max any thoughts on the chefs. I live about 3hrs north of KC. And follow the chefs . The weather will be sunny and 35degrees. My feeling is KC runs all over the titans. My local has them at -5.5. Thanx SBP

**captain** · 12-26-10, 06:34 AM

Thank you for the picks...i will follow your bets in the Cristmas time...BOL for you with the games...great to see your bets with we can make some $ too...

So Thanx again

**Maxlock** · 12-26-10, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

max any thoughts on the chefs. I live about 3hrs north of KC. And follow the chefs . The weather will be sunny and 35degrees. My feeling is KC runs all over the titans. My local has them at -5.5. Thanx SBP

I like the Chiefs to cover but you really don't know how a young team like the Chiefs will respond in a situation where they must win in order to keep ahead of the Chargers. KC has played very well at home where they are 5-0 at home. Offensively the Titans are still dangerous with the combination of Chris Johnson and the emergence of Kenny Britt. Ironically, these two teams seem alike.

The Chiefs have everything to play for while the Titans don't. Keep in mind that just because a team "needs" to win a game that doesn't always happen.

I'm not betting this game but id lean the Chiefs -5.5. Bol

**Maxlock** · 12-26-10, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by Maxlock

MAXLock NFL Handicapping Week 16 Slate (odds of sportsbook.com as of 1:00 pm Christmas day) Thursday:
1) Pittsburgh -14.5 over Carolina-WON Saturday:
2) Dallas -7 over Arizona Sunday:
3) NY Jets +1 over Chicago
4) San Diego-Cincinnati Under 44 ( get it now before it drops)
5) Baltimore -3.5 over Cleveland (recommended to buy half point to get -3)
6) Seattle +6.5 over Tampa Bay
*MNF Pending

I should have a play for the Sunday Night game-Minnesota @ Phily. I still want to see exactly how bad the weather and the snow storm will be. If I have a pick I'll get it out two hours till gametime. BOL today

**martinmobley** · 12-26-10, 09:42 AM

I agree with you here. This is why I took the chargers at -7 earlier in the week. I hate
over/unders so will just take chargers with the points today. Good luck with everything! I tailed you again today. Thanks for the hard work.

**martinmobley** · 12-26-10, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

max any thoughts on the chefs. I live about 3hrs north of KC. And follow the chefs . The weather will be sunny and 35degrees. My feeling is KC runs all over the titans. My local has them at -5.5. Thanx SBP

I wouldn't take the chiefs. I think the titans not only cover, but I think they win straight up in this position.

**rsktkr** · 12-26-10, 10:14 AM

BOL there Max

**sweethook** · 12-26-10, 12:22 PM

very nice input you have maxlock , bol man

**HiTMaNN** · 12-26-10, 01:47 PM

Tough loss last night Max, TWO PICKS in the 1st quarter? Then to fight to tie it up and the punter misses the extra point? Wow! Just wow but let's go Raven's!!!

**Palcsi** · 12-26-10, 03:33 PM

F@kk the Dallas were a bullsh!t

**shawnkang** · 12-26-10, 03:47 PM

great pick with the ravens!

**HiTMaNN** · 12-26-10, 04:30 PM

I went hard on the Ravens and ended up not going with your Jets pick this week but I did take the Hawks so see what Seattle can do.

**Maxlock** · 12-26-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by HiTMaNN

I went hard on the Ravens and ended up not going with your Jets pick this week but I did take the Hawks so see what Seattle can do.

Did you take the cincy SD under?

**CROANT** · 12-26-10, 06:56 PM

Glad to see the picks that missed are over - let's move onto Phi/Min & Atl/NO....

**shopbar picks** · 12-26-10, 06:59 PM

Nice hit on the ravens. Also took KC. Stayed away from the O/U. Thanx again. Wont get tired of saying that

**Chucker** · 12-26-10, 07:19 PM

You gonna play the Sunday nighter Max?

**martinmobley** · 12-26-10, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Chucker

You gonna play the Sunday nighter Max?

There isn't a Sunday nighter. They announced that this morning.

**HiTMaNN** · 12-26-10, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Did you take the cincy SD under?

No I am always scared of going over/unders!

Two more games to go

**Maxlock** · 12-26-10, 07:50 PM

Monday Night:
New Orleans +2.5 over Atlanta (recommend to buy half point to make it +3)

**dugdogg** · 12-26-10, 10:24 PM

i see a lot of ppl week in and week out betting on seattle and the line moving before gametime in their favor...why do ppl keep betting on seattle??

this week the game meant absolutely nothing to them and everything for the bucs. seattle is playing for the division title next week whether they won or lost today...

but regardless, they are just a terrible team, especially on the road...what is the reasoning that they would keep this within 1 score today??? both their qbs are terrible

**chimp** · 12-26-10, 11:34 PM

why NO? favs on MNF covered 10 out of the last 11 games..

**Maxlock** · 12-27-10, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by chimp

why NO? favs on MNF covered 10 out of the last 11 games..

Saints match up pretty well vs. Atlanta. New Orleans is ranked 2nd in passing yards allowed, while Atlanta is 22nd in that department. Matt Ryan is a spectacular 19-1 straight up at home but I fully expect this will be his 2nd lose @ home. New Orleans will be looking for some revenge this time around as Atlanta beat them earlier in the year in OT by a FG. Earlier on the year New Orleans wasn't clicking on all cylinders as they are now. Prior to last weeks lose to the Ravens, the Saints had scored at least 30 points in 5 consecutive games. Their defense is a liablity on the road in adverse weather, but this game will be played in a dome where the Saints speed on offense will be in full effect. The first time around Drew Brees passed for 365 yards with an amazing 79% completion rate, but had 2 INTS. I think a proven team like the Saints will be fully up for the challenge in this one. Think back to last years Superbowl when the Saints faced off against the Colts. New Orleans was a 5 point underdog as few thought that the Saints would cover let alone win straight up. Roddy White's trash talk should only add fuel to the Saint's motivation for this game. As I pointed out the Saints are exceptional against the pass ranking 2nd. They are 21st against the run allowing 117 yards on the ground per game. The first time around, Atlanta led a run heavy attack. Turner averaged 3.8 yards on the ground. In that game Turner and Snelling combined for 44 carries, while Matt Ryan passed for 228 yards with 2 TDs. In the first meeting between these two division rivals, the Saints didn't have the benefit of the explosive Reggie Bush at their disposal, but they will Monday night.

The Saints are still fighting to secure a postseason spot. Look for the Saints to come out firing and prove to Atlanta and everyone else in the NFC that they still are the defending world Champions. Currently the line is New Orleans +2.5, if you could get them at +3, then take it, otherwise bet the the ML as I fully expect the Saints to win this one straight up.

**shopbar picks** · 12-27-10, 12:59 AM

Amen max! nfl is like any baseball doubleheader. Its hard to beat any team twice in the same day. Now to the Nfl its even harder to beat a divison rival twice in the same year. Dont know the stats. But will gaurntee Max does. For all you lookers he. IS THE MAN.

**shopbar picks** · 12-27-10, 01:15 AM

Max , just one more thing, in my years of gambling. 10 years ago i said i would never bet under in any cfb/nfl game its like giving up. And have bet under 2x`s this year. Only pitt/ravens. And kc/det. Dont know if you follow formula/shiva. thread its spot on, on the overs. And unlike your thread full of no nothings that reply posts and hate winners. Thanx SBP