Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[Maxlock]

Don't worry Max, everyone I watch had a bad day today. Just one of those weeks. Looking forward to your play for MNF.

Thanks man. As long as Green bay covers ill be 3-4 on the week with a chance to even it out Monday night and go 4-4.

[HiTMaNN]

Hahahahah BRO! Everyone called you an idiot for GB's pick but they covered! Lol and The Jets won out right did you pound there money line too? I am so stupid I bet on the Saints and Cowboys ******* square plays but I don't know why I did it I just did and I paid for that from now on no stupid plays. Thank god ATL covered for me huge same as hitting the over on that game.

[Maxlock]

You bring up some good points. But you can't predict this outcome solely on stats and past play. There are quite a few variables that favor the Pack in this one, which I really don't want to go into a full write up to discuss. I'm sticking with Green Bay in this one +14 with Matt Flynn. New England 24 Green Bay 20

Right on the money by being 4 points off...Good way to end the Sunday I suppose.

[Maxlock]

I really cant recommend betting either side. Baltimore is one of those teams that plays much better at home. This year they are 5-1 @ home with the only lose coming at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore on average gives up 16.8 points per game at home. While, Drew Brees and the Saints offense should at least put up 20 points, its not really the Saints offense I'm worried about. What concerns me is the Saints defense on the road in a game where the temperature will be in the 30s. The last two times the Saints have been on the road they gave up 30 points to the Bengals and 27 to the Cowboys. New Orleans, although they have been winning on the road, does not play up to their abilities the way they do at home, while Baltimore plays much better at home. Baltimore should have success moving the ball offensively if they find a good balance between Rice and the passing game. Baltimore will be up for the challenge knowing they are facing the cream of the crop from the NFC. New Orleans may be looking ahead to next week as they are set to face Atlanta in a key divisional game next Monday. Although that wont matter if New Orleans does not win this one here, so in the Saints defense they need to win this game to keep pace with Atlanta for the division. In my opinion I can't bet this game, it really could go either way. If I had to take a side I would side with the Ravens 27-24. BOL in whatever you choose.

Although I didn't have a play on this one, someone asked me what I thought about Saints-Ravens...Well, there I was 3 points off with the correct pick.

[Maxlock]

Hahahahah BRO! Everyone called you an idiot for GB's pick but they covered! Lol and The Jets won out right did you pound there money line too? I am so stupid I bet on the Saints and Cowboys ******* square plays but I don't know why I did it I just did and I paid for that from now on no stupid plays. Thank god ATL covered for me huge same as hitting the over on that game.

Yea man I hear you. I had the most faith in the Jets out of any of my picks, that's why I made a seperate thread earlier in the week about banking the Jets. Overall I'm going into Monday 3-4, but I'm very dissapointed in the Giants collapse and through further consideration I understand why the Cardinals failed to cover even against the lowly Panthers. As for the rest of the picks I handicapped them to what I thought was the right side, but unfortuently it was just one of those weeks where they didn't fall right.

We'll even out Monday and get back at the next week.

[Maxlock]

Record to date following end of Sunday:
Documented ATS SBR record since joining week 10: 28-16-2=64%
Season ATS record: 60-31-7=66%

Week 15 Recap:

Wins: San Diego -8.5 over San Fran
NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
Green Bay +14 over New England

Losses: NY Giants -3 over Phily
Arizona +3 over Carolina
St. Louis +1 over KC
Cleveland +1.5 over Cincy

**I have a play for tommorrows game between Minnesota and Chicago that I'll release noon eastern. I'll include an indepth analysis. No over/under play, strictly team for this one.

[dwang0725]

Although I didn't have a play on this one, someone asked me what I thought about Saints-Ravens...Well, there I was 3 points off with the correct pick.

That was me. Good cap. I laid off the game and instead took a Oak/Atl parlay. Went 3-1 (SD, NYJ, Oak/Atl) on the week, the one loss being Clev. No worries with the picks, 3-4 is not the end of the world. get em next week.

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

YOU ARE STILL OUR HORSE MAXLOCK------Keep up the GOOD WORK BRO

[Maxlock]

Bears-Vikings Analysis- PICK CHICAGO -7

First things first the weather report in this game calls for game time temperatures right around 25 degrees with winds at about 15 mph. (15 mph is not enough to disrupt the passing game) Snow accumulation between 2-4 inches during the day and 1-3 inches at night. Generally, this would favor the Bears, but I don’t believe this years version of the Chicago Bears is the almighty cold weather team that we’re use to seeing in Chicago. The one factor that does help them is they did play in the cold and snow last week so they should have no surprises this time around, while the Vikings have routinely played in the dome.

The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 27-13 win @ Chicago. Now there were a few key differences in that game. Foremost, Brett Favre was under center and he did not have Sydney Rice to throw to. It’s important to note that Favre had a horrible day completing 18 of 31 passes for 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT and 44.5 QB rating. Now with 5th round rookie Job Webb set to make his start I think things could get very ugly for him. Having played last week in the snow against the Pats, this should give the advantage to the Bears as they should know what to expect now in terms of traction and getting use to the snowy condition that this game will present. Last week, Tom Brady torched the Bears because he simple had ample time in the pocket to deliver his passes. The Bears generally play a cover 2 defense and allow the front four on the defensive line to bring the pressure. The cover 2 does a good job of taking away the deep passes with safety help over the top. It limits the opponent to small underneath gains and allows the defense to swarm to the ball. DE Julius Peppers usually brings his A game for a nationally televised event and I expect nothing less from him today. The Bears are still fighting for the #2 spot in the NFC so I expect them to come out and avenge last weeks bitter lose. With Joe Webb making his first start of the season the Vikings will run the ball early and often with Adrian Peterson. Joe Webb has the resume to be a good runner like Vick, but a balky hamstring that will limit his ability to run with the combination of the Bears defense and the weather i really think Webb's ability to run will be limited. Not to mention the Bears stopped Vick in his tracks when he tried scrambling. The last times these two teams faced each other Peterson only had 51 yards on 17 carries which equates to a 3.0 average. A lot of those yards were on one 20 yard carry. The Bears rank 5th in the league giving up 3.7 yards per rush. They are tied for first in the league in creating fumbles against a rusher. With traction and holding on to the ball playing into this game I see the Bears creating a few turnover whether it’s forced by fumble or interception. If the Bears can hold Peterson to minimal gains and keep Webb in third and longs the stats point to the Bears having success as they are tied for 5th defensively in third down completion. Only 35% of third down are completed against the Bears defense.

On the Chicago offensive side of the ball Cutler and the Bears offense will have to employ a well balanced offensive attack. They have done this in recent games and this has led to their recent success. Cutler played relatively well the last time they two teams played each other. Cutler went 22 of 35 for 237, 1 sack, 3 TDs 2 Ints and 87.4 passer rating.

Some of you may think well if Matt Flynn can play well as a back up why can’t Joe Webb. As I wrote in a previous article good teams step up and play 110% with their starting QB out, especially in crucial time as the Pack are fighting for the playoffs. So it doesn’t surprise me that the Packers defense showed up yesterday, as they have all year. The reality for the Vikings is that Webb was a third stringer prior to this game who has never played a game in snowy conditions such as today. I don’t think the Vikings defense will step up and play the hero role as much because their season is all but over. If they get behind in this game by 2 TDs then they’ll really roll over. Many players on both sides have said they are not excited about playing this game on the frozen field. At least the Bears have something to play for as they are fighting with Phily for a first round bye with the #2 spot in the NFC. I really expect the Bears to come out and avenge their last week lose. Things will get tough for Job Webb early and often as he’ll struggle in his first start. I'm predicting a 24-10 victory.

Take the Bears -7

[martinmobley]

Wow... yesterday was a rollercoaster! I tailed you on all the morning picks plus added the Cowboys. 5 losses is a tough way to start any day. I took the Jets both moneyline and with the 6 points (thanks to your help) plus I added the Falcons which covered. With the Packers win in the evening I ended up coming back from a huge deficit to actually profiting a little. Let's get a win tonight and all is good!

[Maxlock]

Wow... yesterday was a rollercoaster! I tailed you on all the morning picks plus added the Cowboys. 5 losses is a tough way to start any day. I took the Jets both moneyline and with the 6 points (thanks to your help) plus I added the Falcons which covered. With the Packers win in the evening I ended up coming back from a huge deficit to actually profiting a little. Let's get a win tonight and all is good!

If the Bears cover I'll end this week 4-4, not so bad considering it was 1-4 at one point. Flippin the page and moving on after Monday.

[hugh4310]

Good luck tonight,I hope you get back a coupe of those bad loses yesterday!

[martinmobley]

I love that "brahmabull" or whatever his name is... was bashing you all day yesterday about the Packers pick. Then his post headline today was "i'm quitting gambling forever". he was whining that "it's just tooooo complicated". this is what happens when you only bet square plays.

[Maxlock]

I love that "brahmabull" or whatever his name is... was bashing you all day yesterday about the Packers pick. Then his post headline today was "i'm quitting gambling forever". he was whining that "it's just tooooo complicated". this is what happens when you only bet square plays.

The sad part is if the Pats would have covered he woulda been on here gloating how his prediction of the pats winning by at least three TDs happened..Now that the Packers covered I doubt he'll come around here

I guess ill never get the 100 sbr points I challenged him to, oh well just another tool...

[Binhduong]

Great job, Max, you can not lose all games on sunday, i am glad all your loses were on noon games, so i doubled up plus juices on your last two games. Because i had been tailed you since you post here. Looks like i have part time jobs, because i am not big grambler but just want to make extra money..... thanks Max.

[Stevedore]

It happens Max, don't sweat it bro. Shocked at how the Rams and Browns played yesterday; thought at least one of them would have covered. Bad teams in December usually get waxed but yesterday they did well except for the Browns and Rams.

At least my boys came through for all of us. Completely dominated the Pats in every statistical category yet still lost. They've perfected the art of losing the close ones this year, 6 losses by a total of 20 points. Pack getting anything over 4 should be an automatic play moving forward.

[HiTMaNN]

Got my pick in Max also for shits and giggles I took the over on a small bet BOL

[sweethook]

mr. maxlock i been around a while i may cant pick winners but i dam sure can pick a capper. i dont care what they say your a 100% in my book

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

GOOD LUCK GUYS------THANKS MAXLOCK For WHAT YOU DO------"DA DEARS BABY"

[geauxtac1911]

Max...if rumors are true and farve plays, how does that change your analysis? Thanks!

[Maxlock]

"Max...if rumors are true and farve plays, how does that change your analysis? Thanks!"

I believe the Bears are still the play. From what I heard so far Webb will still start and Favre is scheduled to be backup. I don't think Favre will be effective if he does play. People still have the old image of Favre of being successful and leading the Vikings to the NFL championship game. We have to go by Favre's play this year, which has been out right horrendous. Not to mention he hasn't practiced in over two weeks or so. The last time Favre faced the Bears he threw three INTs and had 44% QB rating. His shoulder and ankle are shot- which means his mobility is very limited and his arm strenght is also limited.

The last report I read was that they'd test his arm out 2 hours to gametime and see how it holds up. With that news the line has dropped to 7 in most places. If for some reason he is announced the starter I can see the line dropping to 6.5/6. AT THIS TIME I just don't see Favre starting nor playing this game due to his current condition and the fact that Joe Webb had all the practice reps, while Favre has had 0 over the past couple weeks.

[geauxtac1911]

Thanks!

[martinmobley]

Great job, Max, you can not lose all games on sunday, i am glad all your loses were on noon games, so i doubled up plus juices on your last two games. Because i had been tailed you since you post here. Looks like i have part time jobs, because i am not big grambler but just want to make extra money..... thanks Max.

Careful buddy... there's ups and downs.. don't bet money you don't have and i wouldn't count on it as a steady source of extra income. That being said... good luck tonight!

[HiTMaNN]

Chicago Bears
Spread -7 (-110)
$500

[Maxlock]

Chicago Bears
Spread -7 (-110)
$500

cheers to all Chicago backers.

[Maxlock]

"Max...if rumors are true and farve plays, how does that change your analysis? Thanks!" I believe the Bears are still the play. From what I heard so far Webb will still start and Favre is scheduled to be backup. I don't think Favre will be effective if he does play. People still have the old image of Favre of being successful and leading the Vikings to the NFL championship game. We have to go by Favre's play this year, which has been out right horrendous. Not to mention he hasn't practiced in over two weeks or so. The last time Favre faced the Bears he threw three INTs and had 44% QB rating. His shoulder and ankle are shot- which means his mobility is very limited and his arm strenght is also limited. The last report I read was that they'd test his arm out 2 hours to gametime and see how it holds up. With that news the line has dropped to 7 in most places. If for some reason he is announced the starter I can see the line dropping to 6.5/6. AT THIS TIME I just don't see Favre starting nor playing this game due to his current condition and the fact that Joe Webb had all the practice reps, while Favre has had 0 over the past couple weeks.

Peterson out, Favre in. I had a larger written analysis based on the fact that Favre was ruled OUT at the time and Joe Webb would start. Nonetheless, Bears -7 are still the play

[buurrdman]

Maxlock the line i have is 5.5 is it going down because of Favre playing? Thought it would stay the same since AP is out!

[Maxlock]

Maxlock the line i have is 5.5 is it going down because of Favre playing? Thought it would stay the same since AP is out!

Yes its due to Favre. I'm hopeing the NFL doesnt have an incredible fix on this game and have Favre end his career on a winning note. It's worrying me at the moment but I'm sticking with my initial guns and say Bears cover despite Favre playing. I think Favre will struggle with no AP and no practice time in 2 weeks.

[buurrdman]

Ya i thought the same thing! Im on the bears train though at -6!!! BOL!!

[aznjeff07]

i would think bears 1st half would be a better bet with farve having no real time to prepare. thoughts?

[Maxlock]

i would think bears 1st half would be a better bet with farve having no real time to prepare. thoughts?

I really don't do those type of bets, I can't advise either way. Bol in whatever you choose. Go Bears!!

[aznjeff07]

didn't play it, was just wondering bc with your reasoning it'd make sense imo

[jas19illini]

hey max, if you have a little spare time, can you elaborate on what you found in the Arizona game (after the game was over) that led you to make an incorrect pick with them? Doesnt have to be really in depth, just something short and sweet. Thanks if you can.

[Maxlock]

Bears-Vikings Analysis- PICK CHICAGO -7 First things first the weather report in this game calls for game time temperatures right around 25 degrees with winds at about 15 mph. (15 mph is not enough to disrupt the passing game) Snow accumulation between 2-4 inches during the day and 1-3 inches at night. Generally, this would favor the Bears, but I don’t believe this years version of the Chicago Bears is the almighty cold weather team that we’re use to seeing in Chicago. The one factor that does help them is they did play in the cold and snow last week so they should have no surprises this time around, while the Vikings have routinely played in the dome. The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 27-13 win @ Chicago. Now there were a few key differences in that game. Foremost, Brett Favre was under center and he did not have Sydney Rice to throw to. It’s important to note that Favre had a horrible day completing 18 of 31 passes for 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT and 44.5 QB rating. Now with 5th round rookie Job Webb set to make his start I think things could get very ugly for him. Having played last week in the snow against the Pats, this should give the advantage to the Bears as they should know what to expect now in terms of traction and getting use to the snowy condition that this game will present. Last week, Tom Brady torched the Bears because he simple had ample time in the pocket to deliver his passes. The Bears generally play a cover 2 defense and allow the front four on the defensive line to bring the pressure. The cover 2 does a good job of taking away the deep passes with safety help over the top. It limits the opponent to small underneath gains and allows the defense to swarm to the ball. DE Julius Peppers usually brings his A game for a nationally televised event and I expect nothing less from him today. The Bears are still fighting for the #2 spot in the NFC so I expect them to come out and avenge last weeks bitter lose. With Joe Webb making his first start of the season the Vikings will run the ball early and often with Adrian Peterson. Joe Webb has the resume to be a good runner like Vick, but a balky hamstring that will limit his ability to run with the combination of the Bears defense and the weather i really think Webb's ability to run will be limited. Not to mention the Bears stopped Vick in his tracks when he tried scrambling. The last times these two teams faced each other Peterson only had 51 yards on 17 carries which equates to a 3.0 average. A lot of those yards were on one 20 yard carry. The Bears rank 5th in the league giving up 3.7 yards per rush. They are tied for first in the league in creating fumbles against a rusher. With traction and holding on to the ball playing into this game I see the Bears creating a few turnover whether it’s forced by fumble or interception. If the Bears can hold Peterson to minimal gains and keep Webb in third and longs the stats point to the Bears having success as they are tied for 5th defensively in third down completion. Only 35% of third down are completed against the Bears defense. On the Chicago offensive side of the ball Cutler and the Bears offense will have to employ a well balanced offensive attack. They have done this in recent games and this has led to their recent success. Cutler played relatively well the last time they two teams played each other. Cutler went 22 of 35 for 237, 1 sack, 3 TDs 2 Ints and 87.4 passer rating. Some of you may think well if Matt Flynn can play well as a back up why can’t Joe Webb. As I wrote in a previous article good teams step up and play 110% with their starting QB out, especially in crucial time as the Pack are fighting for the playoffs. So it doesn’t surprise me that the Packers defense showed up yesterday, as they have all year. The reality for the Vikings is that Webb was a third stringer prior to this game who has never played a game in snowy conditions such as today. I don’t think the Vikings defense will step up and play the hero role as much because their season is all but over. If they get behind in this game by 2 TDs then they’ll really roll over. Many players on both sides have said they are not excited about playing this game on the frozen field. At least the Bears have something to play for as they are fighting with Phily for a first round bye with the #2 spot in the NFC. I really expect the Bears to come out and avenge their last week lose. Things will get tough for Job Webb early and often as he’ll struggle in his first start. I'm predicting a 24-10 victory. Take the Bears -7

Pretty spot on for the most part. I'm very pleased with how this week ended after it started off bad. With the Monday victory I finished this week 4-4, if it wasn't for the darn Giants this could've been a winning week at 5-3. I already started working on week 16 and will post Thursday's play soon.

To finish off week 15 here are my season totals to date:

Documented ATS record since joining SBR week 10:29-16-2=64.4%
Season ATS record: 61-31-7=66.3%

[Maxlock]

hey max, if you have a little spare time, can you elaborate on what you found in the Arizona game (after the game was over) that led you to make an incorrect pick with them? Doesnt have to be really in depth, just something short and sweet. Thanks if you can.

Absolutely. Looking back at that game it was bad capping on my part. I've recognized how I capped it wrong and will learn from that mistake moving forward: Although Arizona had a very good shot at the backdoor cover +3 towards the end of the game, here's is why they ultimately failed.

-It was third stringer John Skeleton's first start on the road.
-Two bad teams facing off against each other could've gone either way, it was really a coin flip the more you look at it.
-For some reason I failed to put enough stock into the following stat, which led to Arizonas demise:
>Here is Carolinas last six games running the all with the combination of Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson.
Last week vs Arizona: 37 rushes for 158
week 14: 27 for 203
week 13: 24 for 111
week 12: 26 for 153
week 11: 22 for 120
week 10: 23 for 100

Carolina's running game cruised threw Arizonas 30th rank run defense. Arizona on average gives up 146 yards on the ground. So with the running game clicking rookie Jimmy Clausen didn't have to take an unnessary risks as he completed 13 of 19 passes. Arizona thrives off of turnovers but the opportunities were limited because they couldn't stop the running game.

That being said, I'll move on having learned from this game. Sorry guys.