RLM System Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • detroitigerz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-19-12
    • 865

    #1191
    Dunno how good Iowa is but this penn state looks good. I just pulled the trigger, double the bet size. And hope you all caught that Detroit (NCAA) game earlier!
    Comment
    • Night-Tripper
      SBR MVP
      • 12-14-09
      • 3205

      #1192
      Original criteria:

      Penn State
      Clemson
      Auburn

      Revised criteria:
      Penn State

      Clemson
      Comment
      • crockje
        SBR Sharp
        • 01-03-11
        • 384

        #1193
        Originally posted by Night-Tripper
        Original criteria: Penn State Clemson Auburn Revised criteria: Penn State Clemson
        Liked penn st a lot to but man they are getting rocked out of the gate
        Comment
        • FadeThat
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-24-12
          • 14

          #1194
          Don't sleep on Texas A&M today boys
          Comment
          • Reno Gambler
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-24-09
            • 175

            #1195
            Do you put all sports on this thread or are the picks on each forum ie...CBB picks cbb forum.
            Comment
            • Night-Tripper
              SBR MVP
              • 12-14-09
              • 3205

              #1196
              Originally posted by Reno Gambler
              Do you put all sports on this thread or are the picks on each forum ie...CBB picks cbb forum.
              Everything involving RLM will be here... one stop shopping.
              Comment
              • wiseguy007
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-20-12
                • 444

                #1197
                Originally posted by consultant21
                Wiseguy how often will you be updating this throughout the day? Any more games that qualify?
                Sorry I update alot but today I was not feeling well and fell asleep.
                Comment
                • wiseguy007
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-20-12
                  • 444

                  #1198
                  UPDATE

                  Games to Watch 2/04/12

                  Based on this:

                  1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

                  2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

                  3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

                  4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



                  NCAAB

                  12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

                  2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                  3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6

                  4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3

                  4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5

                  5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

                  7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                  7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

                  NBA

                  7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

                  8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

                  9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2


                  YTD: 56-46-1
                  Comment
                  • Night-Tripper
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-14-09
                    • 3205

                    #1199
                    Upcoming original formula plays:

                    Spurs -3
                    Nets +6.5
                    Jazz -2

                    NIU +1
                    GWU +1.5
                    Northeastern +13
                    TCU +10.5
                    Northern Colorado +13

                    While the original formula allowed static lines if there was a large percentage of bets on one side... all of these plays have RLM at the present time.
                    Comment
                    • garnetandblack
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 10-23-09
                      • 42

                      #1200
                      Spurs are a play at this point right? Open -1.5 Now -3 and 74% is on Thunder
                      Comment
                      • Night-Tripper
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-14-09
                        • 3205

                        #1201
                        Originally posted by garnetandblack
                        Spurs are a play at this point right? Open -1.5 Now -3 and 74% is on Thunder
                        You're right... I had it written down and then forgot to transfer it to my post.
                        Comment
                        • Laissez Faire
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-31-12
                          • 536

                          #1202
                          Originally posted by R19
                          Laissez Faire, are you playing NHL today? I did not look until now and there are early games. I want to monitor today and see how it goes.

                          So if I understand correctly:
                          - Moneyline 63%/37% or greater
                          - Moneyline is Static or Reverse Movement on Vig
                          - Play the team the public does not favor
                          - Play the spread and possibly the moneyline smaller

                          yes I will be playing NHL tonight....Edmonton +1.5/+135 is the only thing I see thus far
                          Comment
                          • Capybara
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-17-08
                            • 11803

                            #1203
                            Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!
                            Comment
                            • R19
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-31-11
                              • 433

                              #1204
                              Kansas vs. Missouri fell off on percentages.
                              Comment
                              • Night-Tripper
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-14-09
                                • 3205

                                #1205
                                Originally posted by Laissez Faire
                                yes I will be playing NHL tonight....Edmonton +1.5/+135 is the only thing I see thus far
                                Do you play moneyline... spread... or both?
                                Comment
                                • mrtsummit
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-23-11
                                  • 349

                                  #1206
                                  I like missouri first half
                                  Comment
                                  • Night-Tripper
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-14-09
                                    • 3205

                                    #1207
                                    Originally posted by Capybara
                                    Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!

                                    Thanks... and welcome.
                                    Comment
                                    • R19
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-31-11
                                      • 433

                                      #1208
                                      Originally posted by Capybara
                                      Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!
                                      Do you see anything that we can sharpen up on in our approach?

                                      - 63% or more public on one side - some of us will play a 61% or 62%.
                                      - Reverse Line Movement - some of us will play static spreads since open as well.
                                      - > 3,000 by at least one team - some of us play if > 3,000 total plays.
                                      - No max spreads - some of us play a max spread on games.
                                      Comment
                                      • Laissez Faire
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-31-12
                                        • 536

                                        #1209
                                        Originally posted by R19
                                        IDK, looking at Odds Shark's match up it sounds like the Cats do well against Stanford. Staying off it though I want to play. The RX also has 3.0 as the open.

                                        wish I had pulled the trigger
                                        Comment
                                        • Laissez Faire
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-31-12
                                          • 536

                                          #1210
                                          Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                          Do you play moneyline... spread... or both?
                                          I watch the ML...if it fits into RLM system, then I play the ML & the spread.
                                          Comment
                                          • Night-Tripper
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-14-09
                                            • 3205

                                            #1211
                                            Originally posted by Laissez Faire
                                            I watch the ML...if it fits into RLM system, then I play the ML & the spread.
                                            Gotcha... thanks!
                                            Comment
                                            • Capybara
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-17-08
                                              • 11803

                                              #1212
                                              Originally posted by R19
                                              Do you see anything that we can sharpen up on in our approach?

                                              - 63% or more public on one side - some of us will play a 61% or 62%.
                                              - Reverse Line Movement - some of us will play static spreads since open as well.
                                              - > 3,000 by at least one team - some of us play if > 3,000 total plays.
                                              - No max spreads - some of us play a max spread on games.
                                              I think what you're doing is probably fine. I personally am a little less stringent, although I don't play all the games anyway, and I still incorporate my own feel. But for instance, I only look for 60% or over, and I don't worry too much about the total number of bets (unless it's super low).

                                              However, I do look for at least a full-point move. The only time I'd play a static spread would be if there were a massive percentage, like >75% on one side or even 80%. I never really play those. My favorite plays are usually like 65-72% on one side but a 1.5- to 2-pt move away from that side.
                                              Comment
                                              • Capybara
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-17-08
                                                • 11803

                                                #1213
                                                Oh, one more thing... I find that the BIGGEST problem with trying to coordinate RLM plays is the variance in percentages from one source to another... I jump around and use like three or four different sources, but no matter what I do, I see different info, sometimes very different.

                                                I use these to start:





                                                Then also SBR Odds, Bet Tracker, etc... I rarely find total agreement.
                                                Comment
                                                • Night-Tripper
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-14-09
                                                  • 3205

                                                  #1214
                                                  Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                                  Original formula plays:

                                                  Spurs -3
                                                  Nets +6.5
                                                  Jazz -2

                                                  NIU +1
                                                  GWU +1.5
                                                  Northeastern +13
                                                  TCU +10.5
                                                  Northern Colorado +13
                                                  South Carolina +12
                                                  Added South Carolina/static with 84% of the bets on Kentucky
                                                  Comment
                                                  • R19
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 10-31-11
                                                    • 433

                                                    #1215
                                                    Thanks for the insights Capybara.

                                                    Come on Clemson. You can do it!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Capybara
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                      • 11803

                                                      #1216
                                                      Originally posted by R19

                                                      Come on Clemson. You can do it!
                                                      WOW!! Did not see them coming back to get the cover for us!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • wiseguy007
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 01-20-12
                                                        • 444

                                                        #1217
                                                        UPDATE:

                                                        Games to Watch 2/04/12

                                                        Based on this:

                                                        1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

                                                        2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

                                                        3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

                                                        4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



                                                        NCAAB

                                                        12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

                                                        2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                                                        3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6

                                                        4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3

                                                        4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5

                                                        5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

                                                        7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                                                        7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

                                                        7:00pm 649 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +13.5 NOW +12.5

                                                        10:00pm 691 TCU Horned Frogs OPEN +12 NOW +10.5



                                                        NBA

                                                        7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

                                                        8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

                                                        9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2



                                                        YTD: 56-46-1
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Laissez Faire
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-31-12
                                                          • 536

                                                          #1218
                                                          NCAAB

                                                          12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 WIN

                                                          2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5 WIN

                                                          3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6 LOSE

                                                          4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3 WIN

                                                          4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5 WIN


                                                          I like what I'm seeing thus far
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Night-Tripper
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-14-09
                                                            • 3205

                                                            #1219
                                                            Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                            UPDATE:

                                                            Games to Watch 2/04/12

                                                            Based on this:

                                                            1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

                                                            2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

                                                            3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

                                                            4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



                                                            NCAAB

                                                            12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 W/Outright Win

                                                            2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5 W/Outright Win

                                                            3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6 L

                                                            4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3 W

                                                            4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5 W

                                                            5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

                                                            7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                                                            7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

                                                            7:00pm 649 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +13.5 NOW +12.5

                                                            10:00pm 691 TCU Horned Frogs OPEN +12 NOW +10.5



                                                            NBA

                                                            7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

                                                            8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

                                                            9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2



                                                            YTD: 56-46-1
                                                            Nice job wiseguy!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • R19
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 10-31-11
                                                              • 433

                                                              #1220
                                                              We need this today.

                                                              Clemson
                                                              "Tiger Rag"

                                                              Long ago way down in the jungle
                                                              Someone got an inspiration for a tune
                                                              And that jingle came from the jungle
                                                              Became famous mighty soon
                                                              Thrills and chills it sends through you
                                                              Hot so hot it burns you too
                                                              Though it's just the growl of the Tiger
                                                              It was written in a syncopated way
                                                              More and more they yell for the Tiger
                                                              Everywhere you go today, they're shoutin:
                                                              Where's that Tiger?
                                                              Where's that Tiger?
                                                              Where's that Tiger?
                                                              Where's that Tiger?
                                                              Hold that Tiger!
                                                              Hold that Tiger!
                                                              Hold that Tiger!
                                                              C-L-E-M-S-O...N!
                                                              Attached Files
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Laissez Faire
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 01-31-12
                                                                • 536

                                                                #1221
                                                                agreed
                                                                Comment
                                                                • garnetandblack
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 10-23-09
                                                                  • 42

                                                                  #1222
                                                                  Originally posted by R19
                                                                  We need this today.

                                                                  Clemson
                                                                  "Tiger Rag"

                                                                  Long ago way down in the jungle
                                                                  Someone got an inspiration for a tune
                                                                  And that jingle came from the jungle
                                                                  Became famous mighty soon
                                                                  Thrills and chills it sends through you
                                                                  Hot so hot it burns you too
                                                                  Though it's just the growl of the Tiger
                                                                  It was written in a syncopated way
                                                                  More and more they yell for the Tiger
                                                                  Everywhere you go today, they're shoutin:
                                                                  Where's that Tiger?
                                                                  Where's that Tiger?
                                                                  Where's that Tiger?
                                                                  Where's that Tiger?
                                                                  Hold that Tiger!
                                                                  Hold that Tiger!
                                                                  Hold that Tiger!
                                                                  C-L-E-M-S-O...N!
                                                                  oh hell no!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Laissez Faire
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                                    • 536

                                                                    #1223
                                                                    I deleted my earlier post and am keeping track of my plays today for spreads and ML's, including halves & quarters, for CBB, NBA, & NHL....will post at the end of the night (it is a large sample size for those who did not see my earlier post)

                                                                    the results have been pretty decent for underdog ML's and 1st half bets (good profit margins)...just need to figure out way to filter through so-so plays
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • tokio
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-30-10
                                                                      • 2150

                                                                      #1224
                                                                      looking good
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Capybara
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 08-17-08
                                                                        • 11803

                                                                        #1225
                                                                        Originally posted by wiseguy007


                                                                        NCAAB

                                                                        2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

                                                                        See, this is what I mean about inconsistency across sources. I just double-checked the FOUR sources I use, because I could have sworn this was not an RLM play. Sure enough, ALL FOUR sources had the OPENING LINE as a pick'em! That completely alters things, since based on that, the line moved in an expected way, the opposite of an RLM play.

                                                                        Has anyone else had any issues with this "free sports bet" site not agreeing w/ what they saw elsewhere? I was excited to discover this thread, but I hate this sort of discrepancy problem, it always seems to mess things up.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...