[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 91-76-3 - 54.4% (+9.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 4-0 (+4.00)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 15-15-1 (-.50)

2. pip2 - 18-12 (+5.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-16 (-7.96)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-14 (-.40)

7. Heart - 7-1 (+5.92)

8. Consigliere - 11-5-1 (+5.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[pip2]

I wonder if away teams playing away on the 23rd of December are less preoccupied with home-xmas-related issues:

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and H

[Heart]

Yeah I'm nervous about putting $ on games this close to Christmas. Sample size around this time is small as well. I may layoff for several days.

Great job yesterday though, fellas!

[dmitean]

I wonder if away teams playing away on the 23rd of December are less preoccupied with home-xmas-related issues:

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and H

Yes, it's a known fact actually.

[dmitean]

date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H
SU:18-15 (-0.55, 54.5%)ATS:16-16-1 (-3.32, 50.0%) avg line: -2.8O/U:12-21-0 (-6.42, 36.4%) avg total: 198.8

Under is the way to go afterwards though...

[dmitean]

I wonder if away teams playing away on the 23rd of December are less preoccupied with home-xmas-related issues:

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and H

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and p:A and H

ATS:	7-17-0 (-5.31, 29.2%

This one has even better results with much logic - since players that just came home, have a lot more things they must do before the holidays, than those that already been few days at home...

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and p:H and A
And the other way around, players that were back home, finished the things they needed and now play on the road - do very well...

ATS:	17-8-0 (4.18, 68.0%)	avg line: 4.5

[Consigliere]

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and p:A and H

ATS:	7-17-0 (-5.31, 29.2%

This one has even better results with much logic - since players that just came home, have a lot more things they must do before the holidays, than those that already been few days at home...

date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and p:H and A
And the other way around, players that were back home, finished the things they needed and now play on the road - do very well...

ATS:	17-8-0 (4.18, 68.0%)	avg line: 4.5

I like the real life aspect of this. It would make sense that this is at least a bit of a factor in the outcomes. As far as ATS trends go this is what I have active tonight...but I don't have all the trends from the spreadsheet into my automated excel tool yet.

NBA51	AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats line="" and="" streak<3="">=12 and season>=2006</o:ats>
NBA76	AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3
NBA107	HD and p:AW and p:points < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2
NBA21	p:ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10
NBA16	H and p:AW and pp:AW and season > 2008
NBA33	H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011
NBA63	p:margin >= 25 and line > p:line and season >= 2012
NBA133	H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2002 and -10.5 <= line <= -4.5
NBA154	A and 9.5 >= line >= 3.5 and tA(points) >= 103 and p:M2 <= -15 and playoffs = 0
NBA16	H and p:AW and pp:AW and season > 2008
NBA26	A and P:ats margin <= -10 and P:season = season and P:H and season > 2012
NBA33	H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011
NBA156	D and P:HL and P:margin<-9 and p:HL and p:margin>-4 and month in [11,12,2,3,4] and season>=2006

[dmitean]

195 33 Clippers +2183 76 Minny +14
171 Portland +6
171 Under in Oklahoma
156 Suns -1.5
133 Thunder -6
113 Under 191 in Miami
97 Over 191 in Miami
107 Under 193.5 in Indiana
107 Pelicans -2
54 33 Dallas +1.5
21 Wizards -3

Those are the ones that look good in my eyes. Obviously some of them point to opposite directions...

[Ronald S.]

NBA Best Bet

12/23/14 3:15 PM EST

Miami/Philadelphia Under 191.5 -105 (5dimes)

p:ats margin >= 16 and op:ats margin >= 16 and H
O/U: 56-94-1 (-4.57, 37.3%) avg total: 194.8
p:ats margin >= 16 and op:ats margin >= 16 and H and rest = 1
O/U: 28-68-1 (-7.82, 29.2%) avg total: 194.0

Play the under when both teams covered the spread by a large margin in their previous games. Trend is even better when the home team is on 1 day of rest

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12:45pm pst Reduced Basketball 708 Cleveland Cavaliers -13½ -107* vs Minnesota Timberwolves

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and season > 2011 and game number > 7 and tA(FGM + TPM*0.5)/tA(FGA) > .467 and oA(o:points in the paint) > 47 and rest < 3 and day!=Wednesday and team not in [Nuggets,Jazz,Wizards,Celtics,Magic,Laker s]

SDQL: English

It never ends well when I use a new query without seeing it in action first, and it never ends well when I make any kind of bet relating to cle, but these new queries are where I get most of my kicks, so what the heck: since 2011 and excluding the playoffs, and after 7 games into the season, and if it isn't Wednesday, if the team has not had more than 2 days rest, and if the team is not in a short list of squirrel teams that have no concept of the meaning of consistency, play the team that has an average effective field goal percentage of more than .467 when it plays against a team that on average allows its opponents to score more than 47 points in the paint.

[emceeaye]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12:45pm pst Reduced Basketball 708 Cleveland Cavaliers -13½ -107* vs Minnesota Timberwolves

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and season > 2011 and game number > 7 and tA(FGM + TPM*0.5)/tA(FGA) > .467 and oA(ooints in the paint) > 47 and rest < 3 and day!=Wednesday and team not in [Nuggets,Jazz,Wizards,Celtics,Magic,Laker s]

SDQL: English

It never ends well when I use a new query without seeing it in action first, and it never ends well when I make any kind of bet relating to cle, but these new queries are where I get most of my kicks, so what the heck: since 2011 and excluding the playoffs, and after 7 games into the season, and if it isn't Wednesday, if the team has not had more than 2 days rest, and if the team is not in a short list of squirrel teams that have no concept of the meaning of consistency, play the team that has an average effective field goal percentage of more than .467 when it plays against a team that on average allows its opponents to score more than 47 points in the paint.

Nice query. One thing I noticed, however, is that it doesn't seem to like Tuesdays of all days:

day=Tuesday and playoffs=0 and H and game number > 7 and tA(FGM + TPM*0.5)/tA(FGA) > .467 and oA(ooints in the paint) > 47 and rest < 3 and day!=Wednesday and team not in [Nuggets,Jazz,Wizards,Celtics,Magic,Laker s]

[Mako-SBR]

Yeah I'm nervous about putting $ on games this close to Christmas. Sample size around this time is small as well. I may layoff for several days.

Great job yesterday though, fellas!

Same, and was just wondering about the pre-Christmas effect last night and now see all the great insight from dmitean, Consig, pip on that exact topic. Always good stuff guys, nice!

[pip2]

Nice query. One thing I noticed, however, is that it doesn't seem to like Tuesdays of all days:

day=Tuesday and playoffs=0 and H and game number > 7 and tA(FGM + TPM*0.5)/tA(FGA) > .467 and oA(o:points in the paint) > 47 and rest < 3 and day!=Wednesday and team not in [Nuggets,Jazz,Wizards,Celtics,Magic,Laker s]

I'm getting 12-7 on Tuesdays, so I'm not able to follow you thus far...

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


527PM ET Timberwolves +13½ +100* vs Cavaliers

SDQL:

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006

SDQL: English

Play the road dog where the opponent is off a back to back or the team has one day of rest, is on a losing ATS streak and the opponent is on a winning ATS streak less but less than 3 and there is a big line over 12 on the game. There are plenty of weird angles on this game, the big KLove trade etc. The Twolves on these big lines have been about 50-50 where they have lost to the good scoring teams out west and the Cavs I don't think have covered any double digit lines this year except against the lowly Magic when Vucevic was injured. Its another when where you hold your nose and take the big dog. Going against my BB co-top dog pip2 on this one.

[emceeaye]

I'm getting 12-7 on Tuesdays, so I'm not able to follow you thus far...

Maybe I should have said that it doesn't like Tuesdays as much... while 12-7 is a winning record, it is also not very compelling for Cleveland despite an admittedly small sample size of 19. Just to see if anything systematically is happening on Tuesdays, you can eliminate the season parameter and note a 31-39 record in favor of the other side, the lowest of any day of the week. Incidently, with the season parameter in place, at 12-7, it also has the lowest WP of any day of the week....just something I noticed, and since I'm anal like that, I would probably shy away from a play...It also lost its last 3 Tuesday games.

In any case, since 2011, it's clear that the parameters you have in place have a larger effect on the outcome than simply the day of the week, so in the long run looks great overall...just my two cents

GL

[pip2]

Maybe I should have said that it doesn't like Tuesdays as much... while 12-7 is a winning record, it is also not very compelling for Cleveland despite an admittedly small sample size of 19. Just to see if anything systematically is happening on Tuesdays, you can eliminate the season parameter and note a 31-39 record in favor of the other side, the lowest of any day of the week. Incidently, with the season parameter in place, at 12-7, it also has the lowest WP of any day of the week....just something I noticed, and since I'm anal like that, I would probably shy away from a play...It also lost its last 3 Tuesday games.

In any case, since 2011, it's clear that the parameters you have in place have a larger effect on the outcome than simply the day of the week, so in the long run looks great overall...just my two cents

GL

Who knows? I wouldn't get too caught up with Tuesday performance because there are probably a million other reasons the query would not work anyway, especially since this is probably more of a day-before-Christmas Eve day than a Tuesday for the NBA. I kind of like it though because I didn't target the query for this game, and as
I was goofing around with the query in various ways, I couldn't help but notice that no matter what stuff I stuck in there or removed, it still seemed to catch this game and show an ATS win for cle. Like I said before, though, I'm probably going down on this one, but this is for fun, right?

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12-23-14 - 5:18p CT

SDQL: tS(W, N=10)>=8 and 49>=WP>=40 and o:WP>50 and total>=188

Play over a ave team on a hot streak winning 8 or 9 out their last 10 against a winning team.

[emceeaye]

Who knows? I wouldn't get too caught up with Tuesday performance because there are probably a million other reasons the query would not work anyway, especially since this is probably more of a day-before-Christmas Eve day than a Tuesday for the NBA. I kind of like it though because I didn't target the query for this game, and as
I was goofing around with the query in various ways, I couldn't help but notice that no matter what stuff I stuck in there or removed, it still seemed to catch this game and show an ATS win for cle. Like I said before, though, I'm probably going down on this one, but this is for fun, right?

Yes, for fun... It better be or its not worth it to me

Good point... If it loses, we will never know why especially when considering the countless relevant variables that can affect the outcome, and ones that were not and/or cannot be included in this or any other query.

Now, if someone were to analyze these data for real, then we might be able to achieve a more powerful tool to more accurately predict the outcome (e.g., multiple regression in SPSS) ... Just so time consuming to research the least-cost-prohibitive way to get as much relevant data as possible, to organize it meaningfully, and then analyze....

[Alex Vaile]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12-23-14 - 5:18p CT

SDQL: tS(W, N=10)>=8 and 49>=WP>=40 and o:WP>50 and total>=188

Play over a ave team on a hot streak winning 8 or 9 out their last 10 against a winning team.

Unbelievable went to ot. Didn't look good all game. Thank goodness for that

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 94-77-3 - 54.9% (+11.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 3-1 (+2.00)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 16-15-1 (+.50)

2. pip2 - 19-12 (+6.28)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 10-16 (-6.96)

5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-14 (-.40)

7. Heart - 7-1 (+5.92)

8. Consigliere - 11-6-1 (+4.65)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!

[JMon]

Unbelievable went to ot. Didn't look good all game. Thank goodness for that

nice to be on the side when it goes into OT! It wasn't too far off setting at 196 before OT.

[JMon]

NBA Best Bet

12/23/14 3:15 PM EST

Miami/Philadelphia Under 191.5 -105 (5dimes)

p:ats margin >= 16 and op:ats margin >= 16 and H
O/U: 56-94-1 (-4.57, 37.3%) avg total: 194.8
p:ats margin >= 16 and op:ats margin >= 16 and H and rest = 1
O/U: 28-68-1 (-7.82, 29.2%) avg total: 194.0

Play the under when both teams covered the spread by a large margin in their previous games. Trend is even better when the home team is on 1 day of rest

Here comes the heater!!

[JMon]

Everyone enjoy the day off!! Solid work so far everyone

[nash13]

Happy holidays everyone.

[Ronald S.]

Here comes the heater!!

Lol finally nice to get a win!

[GolfAddict84]

I'm back. Was away for a few days looking forward to getting back at it tomorrow

[Slanina]

I'm back. Was away for a few days looking forward to getting back at it tomorrow

Where did you go? Your 1 post says no one knew you left.

[JMon]

NBA Best Bet
12-25-14 9:35a ct

play Clev -6 -110

H and po:blocks>=10 and 4< line<=10 and season<=2006 and o:rest<2

fade a home dog from 5 to10, coming off a game where their opt had 10 or more blocks and their current opt is not on more than 1 days rest. Think this is a product of mako

[dmitean]

Good luck mate, but I hope you are not counting on Cleveland team to block. Sixers suck, but they are ranked 5th in the league as far as blocks go. Cleveland ranked 22...
Also, you can't count out the fact that LeBron is back to Miami.

I actually think that Cleveland should win (and good chance they cover as well) regardless of that, but I don't think it's the best game to look at queries for it and blocks surely not a good stat to measure Cleveland in...

Hope you hit it (I have Cleveland ML in two parlays - so hope you're right and I wouldn't have to sweat over it)!

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


12/25/14 10:05am Reduced Basketball 503 Oklahoma City Thunder/San Antonio Spurs Under 196 -105*

SDQL:

date in [20141225,20131225,20121225,20111225,2010 1225,20091225,20081225,20071225,20061225] and tA(o:points) < 98 and oA(o:points) < 100

(with a little side support from: season > 2012 and team=Spurs and o:team=Thunder)

SDQL: English

on xmas day for the past 9 years, when the team is averaging less than 98 points allowed per game and the opponent is averaging less than 100 points allowed, the game should go under.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here's a repeat of Pip's trend from a few days ago: Lakers +10.5

playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p:points + p:points in the paint/p:points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2

[JMon]

Good luck mate, but I hope you are not counting on Cleveland team to block. Sixers suck, but they are ranked 5th in the league as far as blocks go. Cleveland ranked 22...
Also, you can't count out the fact that LeBron is back to Miami.

I actually think that Cleveland should win (and good chance they cover as well) regardless of that, but I don't think it's the best game to look at queries for it and blocks surely not a good stat to measure Cleveland in...

Hope you hit it (I have Cleveland ML in two parlays - so hope you're right and I wouldn't have to sweat over it)!

well of course not, lol. Rather a reaction.

[pip2]

Here's a repeat of Pip's trend from a few days ago: Lakers +10.5

playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2

I love that query but I am nervous about the fact that the only reason lal qualifies for it is that Kobe sat out the last game. Today he will probably be back and throwing up a ton of midrange jumpers...

[pip2]

I love that query but I am nervous about the fact that the only reason lal qualifies for it is that Kobe sat out the last game. Today he will probably be back and throwing up a ton of midrange jumpers...

Well, got my bet in about 30 seconds before tipoff after I heard the announcer say Kobe isn't going to play today!

[emceeaye]

Well, got my bet in about 30 seconds before tipoff after I heard the announcer say Kobe isn't going to play today!

damn...and I thought it was because of Kobe that the Lakers got worked by more than 10.5 based on your sound rationale.