[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-16-14 - 10:30a CT

Play OKC OV 193.5 -110
SDQL:

H and 199.5 >= total >= 192.5 and 10 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest + pppp:rest) >= 6 and p:HFL and 2007 <= season

SDQL English:

Since 2007 with a total of 192.5 to 199.5, play over a home team coming off a home loss as a favorite playing 6 or more in 10.

I'm going down to the sportsbook right now to lay some money on that one jmon -- thanks!

[nash13]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-16-14 - 6:25 CET

Play OKC OV 193 +100 @Pinnacle

SDQL:

H and 199.5 >= total >= 192.5 and 10 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest + pppp:rest) >= 6 and p:HFL and 2007 <= season

SDQL English:

Since 2007 with a total of 192.5 to 199.5, play over a home team coming off a home loss as a favorite playing 6 or more in 10.

I an with you on this, line dropped a bit

[JMon]

good odds nash-wish I had pinny at my disposal!

[nash13]

regarding NFL queries. If you like you can post them in the NFL thread. I have about 30 of them in the sheet, but can compare them, a lot of active today.

Lions@Cardinals	Lions +1
Raiders@Chargers	Raiders +10
Raiders@Chargers	Over 44.5
Patriots@Colts	Colts -3
Eagles@Packers	Eagles +5.5
Broncos@Rams	Over 50.5
Bengals@Saints	Bengals +7

[SportsMind]

Gonna pass on posting a query and pick today. Back at it tomorrow.

[Consigliere]

Can you explain a little further what you mean by unique?

Just if there are 3 of the same bets it only counts as 1 win.

[Ronald S.]

No best bet for me today either

[Mako-SBR]

Nice one today JMon, tailing!

No Best Bet from me today, BOL all!

[JMon]

Wow, wtf lol. Just checked the okc total.

[nash13]

p:offensive rebounds + p:defensive rebounds > 50 and p:AD and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3 and total < 210 and season > 2007 and site = away

found a new one. the logic behind this: if a team had a huge rebounding game in their last match, this will boost the total points in the next game.

[Mako-SBR]

Wow, wtf lol. Just checked the okc total.

When I checked it I was in such disbelief that I thought "Oh we must have bet the under..."

[pip2]

Wow, wtf lol. Just checked the okc total.

I did one last check after the fact: if you exclude playing that query on Sundays, the success rate moves up to 85%!

[nash13]

p:offensive rebounds + p:defensive rebounds < 30 and p:A and total < 210 and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3

boosts the under.

[JMon]

Overall Group Record - 17-12 58.6% (+4.45)

Yesterday's recap 0-2 (-2.10)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 2-3 (-.60)

2. pip2 - 2-1 (+.95)

3. nash13 - 3-1 (+2.00)

4. Ronald S. - 2-1 (+.95)

5. hyahya - 2-2 (-.20)

6. Mako-SBR - 1-2 (-1.20)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 3-0 (+3.00)

9. Sports Mind - 1-0 (+1.00)

10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)

[JMon]

When I checked it I was in such disbelief that I thought "Oh we must have bet the under..." :lmao:

:lmao:, just have to laugh these types of games off. Look at the bright side, we are in a elite group of 16 games since 1995 where lines makers and a particular situation was so off..

p:ou margin<=-58

[FunkFreaker]

, just have to laugh these types of games off. Look at the bright side, we are in a elite group of 16 games since 1995 where lines makers and a particular situation was so off..

pu margin<=-58

Even 8 games SDQL show the next games of the both opponents.

[pip2]

, just have to laugh these types of games off. Look at the bright side, we are in a elite group of 16 games since 1995 where lines makers and a particular situation was so off..

pu margin<=-58

I don't care if it won or lost: that query was an awesome work of ethereal beauty. I just have to go back to L.A. now and beg them to give me my old job back...

[JMon]

Even 8 games SDQL show the next games of the both opponents.

oh ya,,that's correct...lol

[JMon]

I don't care if it won or lost: that query was an awesome work of ethereal beauty. I just have to go back to L.A. now and beg them to give me my old job back...

[Ronald S.]

Wow, wtf lol. Just checked the okc total.

Unreal. I can't believe how low that score was. I wasn't sure if I was looking at a WNBA score! As amazing as the trend was though I think we should consider that maybe bookies are off on Houston totals and still haven't adjusted. 9 out of 10 games have gone under now. Maybe they actually play defense this year!

[hyahya]

Unreal. I can't believe how low that score was. I wasn't sure if I was looking at a WNBA score! As amazing as the trend was though I think we should consider that maybe bookies are off on Houston totals and still haven't adjusted. 9 out of 10 games have gone under now. Maybe they actually play defense this year!

They're playing at a much slower pace than last year as they are currently middle of the pack in possessions per game whereas they were top 3 last year. Home/road pace splits are pretty significant at this point (103/94) so that's something we should keep an eye on.

[Ronald S.]

They're playing at a much slower pace than last year as they are currently middle of the pack in possessions per game whereas they were top 3 last year. Home/road pace splits are pretty significant at this point (103/94) so that's something we should keep an eye on.

Good insight. Total today @Memphis is in the 180's! 1st time in 2 years lol.

[Ronald S.]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/17/14 1:00 PM EST

Orlando +4 -105 (5dimes) @Pistons

AD and ats streak >= 5 and season >= 2010 and 2 <= line <= 8
ATS: 45-17-1 (3.16, 72.6%) avg line: 5.0

So since 2010, playing on ANY away dog on a 5+ game ATS streak has been 52-29-1. Any away dog on a 6 game+ ATS streak has been 24-11. (4+ ATS streak is 90-62-2). The numbers improve across the board if we restrict it to dogs between +2 and +8. So as you can see, books have been setting lines not giving enough credit to dogs in this situation. And also, the higher the ATS streak, the better they do! Orlando is on a 6 game ATS streak. While Detroit is on a 3 game ATS streak of their own, this query below shows that the higher ATS streak usually trumps the lower one.

AD and ats streak > o:ats streak and o:ats streak >= 3 and season >= 2010
ATS: 13-3-0 (9.50, 81.2%) avg line: 6.9

[Mako-SBR]

, just have to laugh these types of games off. Look at the bright side, we are in a elite group of 16 games since 1995 where lines makers and a particular situation was so off..

pu margin<=-58

Now that is funny, very nice.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/17/14 4:39PM EST

Suns -2 (-105 @ Pinny) @ Celtics
AF and -3 <= ats streak <= -1 and 1 <= o:ats streak <= 2 and 1 <= rest <= 2 and 32 < WP < 78 and playoffs = 0

An medium bad to good team, playing on the road as a favourite between 1 and 3 ATS losses against a team with 1 or 2 ATS wins in a row. Contrarian play based on recent outcomes and the line now being in a profitable position.

[dmitean]

I like Suns play. They got embarrassed at home against Charlotte, then demolished in second half in LA, by the Clippers. If Suns want to be in the playoffs, this is almost a must win for them.
Boston is really unexpected team, but Suns should roll here.

[Mako-SBR]

So since 2010, playing on ANY away dog on a 5+ game ATS streak has been 52-29-1. Any away dog on a 6 game+ ATS streak has been 24-11. (4+ ATS streak is 90-62-2). The numbers improve across the board if we restrict it to dogs between +2 and +8. So as you can see, books have been setting lines not giving enough credit to dogs in this situation.

I like this premise, because it's gotten better over time and when you ask yourself why that would be, why would it be so much more dominant than say 10 years ago, one of the potential answers is the rise of the internet bettor. Books can't make the line in these games what it really should be, i.e. the favorite laying fewer points (or even getting points at home) because the square bettor likes betting home favorites, and too much money would drop on one side, leading to too much risk exposure.

As an example, in this case Detroit is apparently getting 52% of the money wagered as of this post time, which means the supposed 50/50 money balance books aim for has been achieved.

If they adjusted the line to what it should be, reflecting Orlando as a stronger team against Detroit (and thus getting fewer points), the 52% would climb as square internet bettors tend to like home favorites, and that would tip the money into a riskier proposition for the book as more money comes in on Detroit, like 60/40 or 70/30.

ATS streaks have previously been looked down on over the years, because they lead to Martingale-esque propositions that can destroy bankrolls through either chasing or fading the streak while doubling down into oblivion. But SDQL analysis can lead to insight into +EV where the book is backed into a corner, and this game and SDQL query is a possible example of that.

Good stuff Roland, even if it's a hypothesis that is way off base it's still interesting to see how it plays out.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-17-14 - 2:30p PST

Play: NO v. POR (over 203) -110

SDQL:

AD and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and o:rest<3 and o:WP>=45 and game number<=70 and season>=2006

SDQL English:

Playing the over, when an away dog had a big previous home win by much more than was expected, on a typical amount of rest, against a solid opponent winning 45% of their games on the season or more, prior to the playoffs.

Notes: This one isn't the strongest in early November, but ramps up nicely as the season gets warmed up into December.

[Mako-SBR]

Notice: Typo in the SDQL data today, the DEN/CLE NBA game is listed as DEN +1.5, meanwhile the line is obviously higher, +11.5, which is probably where the typo came from (missed a 1).

[nash13]

NBA Best Bet

11-17-14 11:36 CET

Play: Suns -1.5 (-109@Pinny)

A and F and p:A and p:L and total >= 198

SDQL English: Play on the Away Fav when they Lost their previous Away Game and the line is 198 or higher

This my fav NBA Query. Seems to be solid year in year out. And my Fav Team needs a win

[JMon]

No best bet from me today...bol guys!!!

[Consigliere]

I like this premise, because it's gotten better over time and when you ask yourself why that would be, why would it be so much more dominant than say 10 years ago, one of the potential answers is the rise of the internet bettor. Books can't make the line in these games what it really should be, i.e. the favorite laying fewer points (or even getting points at home) because the square bettor likes betting home favorites, and too much money would drop on one side, leading to too much risk exposure.

As an example, in this case Detroit is apparently getting 52% of the money wagered as of this post time, which means the supposed 50/50 money balance books aim for has been achieved.

If they adjusted the line to what it should be, reflecting Orlando as a stronger team against Detroit (and thus getting fewer points), the 52% would climb as square internet bettors tend to like home favorites, and that would tip the money into a riskier proposition for the book as more money comes in on Detroit, like 60/40 or 70/30.

ATS streaks have previously been looked down on over the years, because they lead to Martingale-esque propositions that can destroy bankrolls through either chasing or fading the streak while doubling down into oblivion. But SDQL analysis can lead to insight into +EV where the book is backed into a corner, and this game and SDQL query is a possible example of that.

Good stuff Roland, even if it's a hypothesis that is way off base it's still interesting to see how it plays out.

Like the thought process. Where do you guys get betting split data from?

[Mako-SBR]

Like the thought process. Where do you guys get betting split data from?

It's interesting how it flows, but basically the online books sell (or provide) their wagering data to distributors like SportsInsights, etc, who then sell (or provide) the data to ESPN and other sites.

You can get it a variety of places, SBR doesn't allow external links, but if you go to ScoresAndOdds and click on "Las Vegas Odds" it will give you the side/ML/totals on the right side, or TheSpread dot com, under their NBA tab, select "Public Betting". Bunch of others too, all sharing mostly the same original source data.

[pip2]

Queries found today (only 2):

sa covers vs phx: from Tom, ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15

den covers vs cle: from mako ATS: 105-51-3 (3.22, 67.3%)
AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0

[SportsMind]

Started too late today so no best bet.