SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Love The Action]

I like the Lakers as well...not at -4 though.

Can I get your take on the total?

Good luck.

[suicidekings]

I like the Lakers as well...not at -4 though. Can I get your take on the total? Good luck.

I think back to the way their series went last year, and there were two Lakers that were visibly furious, never giving up at all. This is a big statement game for Kobe/Bynum.

I think Bynum will be in beast mode tonight on the glass, and Dallas doesn't really have an answer for him. He's going to score and defend with equal intensity, controlling the paint at both ends with no Chandler to stop him. Kobe also has a chip on his shoulder and is going to take/make a lot of shots. He'll put up no less than 30 points tonight. Otherwise, the Laker perimeter defense is much improved this season and that matchup with the Mavs perimeter shooters is the key to this game. That defensive pressure should lead to a slow tempo, halfcourt game, but 183 is a really tough number to like in this game because neither team is going to take their foot off the gas if they're ahead or give up if they're behind.

I would lean to the Under, but one 55 point quarter could sink it. So I don't like the total much.

[Love The Action]

I think back to the way their series went last year, and there were two Lakers that were visibly furious, never giving up at all. This is a big statement game for Kobe/Bynum.

I think Bynum will be in beast mode tonight on the glass, and Dallas doesn't really have an answer for him. He's going to score and defend with equal intensity, controlling the paint at both ends with no Chandler to stop him. Kobe also has a chip on his shoulder and is going to take/make a lot of shots. He'll put up no less than 30 points tonight. Otherwise, the Laker perimeter defense is much improved this season and that matchup with the Mavs perimeter shooters is the key to this game. That defensive pressure should lead to a slow tempo, halfcourt game, but 183 is a really tough number to like in this game because neither team is going to take their foot off the gas if they're ahead or give up if they're behind.

I would lean to the Under, but one 55 point quarter could sink it. So I don't like the total much.

I agree with almost everything. However, I think that slow pace you mention will be telling. Without Steve Blake, the Lakers are think at the point and I don't see Fisher pushing the pace all night. Bynum will have a huge night, no doubt, but I don't see the Mavs shooting anywhere near what they did in the finals. As you suggest, the improved Lakers' perimeter D will be in full force tonight. This is a huge adjustment putting this game all the way down to 181-183 range from the 188-190 range. Makes me think Vegas is suspecting a low scoring game here.

[suicidekings]

I agree with almost everything. However, I think that slow pace you mention will be telling. Without Steve Blake, the Lakers are think at the point and I don't see Fisher pushing the pace all night. Bynum will have a huge night, no doubt, but I don't see the Mavs shooting anywhere near what they did in the finals. As you suggest, the improved Lakers' perimeter D will be in full force tonight. This is a huge adjustment putting this game all the way down to 181-183 range from the 188-190 range. Makes me think Vegas is suspecting a low scoring game here.

100% agree. I'm just very tentative with totals in general, and this one doesn't really speak loudly to me. I think it's pretty sharp. I do like how the early money deflated the line only to have it creep back up in the afternoon. Seems like the classic total line move that speaks of a winner on the Under.

[Love The Action]

100% agree. I'm just very tentative with totals in general, and this one doesn't really speak loudly to me. I think it's pretty sharp. I do like how the early money deflated the line only to have it creep back up in the afternoon. Seems like the classic total line move that speaks of a winner on the Under.

All day, it would creep from 181.5 to 183 and as soon as it hit 183, it would always shoot back down. I bought 183 about 1 hr before the game and 10 minutes later it dropped to 182.5 until close. Classic under movement.

I had it set at 180.5, so not a ton of "value", but that is one instance where I used line movement to my benefit in conjunction with the rest of the factors which made me like the under. Too often around here, people get caught up in the line movement without realizing that it can only be used as part of the equation rather than the answer. Now I just have to worry about OT.

Hope you cash the Lakers, I think they close out the 4th strong behind Bynum and Gasol.

[suicidekings]

All day, it would creep from 181.5 to 183 and as soon as it hit 183, it would always shoot back down. I bought 183 about 1 hr before the game and 10 minutes later it dropped to 182.5 until close. Classic under movement. I had it set at 180.5, so not a ton of "value", but that is one instance where I used line movement to my benefit in conjunction with the rest of the factors which made me like the under. Too often around here, people get caught up in the line movement without realizing that it can only be used as part of the equation rather than the answer. Now I just have to worry about OT. Hope you cash the Lakers, I think they close out the 4th strong behind Bynum and Gasol.

I wish I had followed you on the Under. I'll say it now though, with 7 minutes to go in the 4Q, if the Lakers don't win this game after being swept by Dallas, the Lakers' chance of competing in the playoffs this year is much lower than I thought. That might seem like it's too bold of a statement this early, but this was THE regular season game to win for them... It's going to be close. 57-56 Mavs right now.

[Love The Action]

I wish I had followed you on the Under. I'll say it now though, with 7 minutes to go in the 4Q, if the Lakers don't win this game after being swept by Dallas, the Lakers' chance of competing in the playoffs this year is much lower than I thought. That might seem like it's too bold of a statement this early, but this was THE regular season game to win for them... It's going to be close. 57-56 Mavs right now.

Can't disagree. This is a character test for the Lakers. They are playing at home for god sakes.

[Love The Action]

1/16:

Lakers ML (-161) x2

Great call with the moneyline

[suicidekings]

Great call with the moneyline

And on the Under. Good night all around.

[suicidekings]

1/16:

Thunder -2 (-114) x1
Lakers ML (-161) x2

1/16: 2-0 (+3u)
YTD: 24-25-1 (-1.27u)

[No coincidences]

All day, it would creep from 181.5 to 183 and as soon as it hit 183, it would always shoot back down. I bought 183 about 1 hr before the game and 10 minutes later it dropped to 182.5 until close. Classic under movement.

I had it set at 180.5, so not a ton of "value", but that is one instance where I used line movement to my benefit in conjunction with the rest of the factors which made me like the under. Too often around here, people get caught up in the line movement without realizing that it can only be used as part of the equation rather than the answer. Now I just have to worry about OT.

Hope you cash the Lakers, I think they close out the 4th strong behind Bynum and Gasol.

Little movement almost = better than huge swings one way or another as far as I'm concerned.

Also, BetOnline follows the Glantz-Culver lines, which are technically the first numbers posted the day before a game:

<table id="ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="smtext2">01/15/12 1:58:31 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4.5/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">183 -110 (Open)</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/12 3:38:30 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">181.5 -110</td></tr></tbody></table>

[suicidekings]

1/17 pistons/rockets over 190 (-110) x1

1/17: 0-1 (-1.10)
YTD: 24-26-1 (-2.37u)

[suicidekings]

1/18

Nuggets +6 (-110) x1

This line is not right. Six points is too many to give to Denver here. The Sixers' greatest advantage against most teams is their depth off the bench. They can rotate highly talented athletic players in and out against teams with weak benches, and they just wear the other team out. This is pretty clear from the intensity they usually bring in the 4th quarter. Denver is not a team where they can do this with the same effect as the Nuggets have the depth and talent to hang with anyone in a high-tempo game. I feel like this will be a very close game.

[petermans23]

Hi suicidekings!

Do you have an opinion today on Minnesota-Detroit? Detroit opened +8.

Would very much appriciate your thoughts there.

Thanks.

[suicidekings]

Hi suicidekings! Do you have an opinion today on Minnesota-Detroit? Detroit opened +8. Would very much appriciate your thoughts there. Thanks.

I have no respect for the Pistons. They have some talented guards, but very little presence up front and rank in the bottom quarter in most offensive and defensive categories. Going into this game, they have a speed advantage over the slower Wolves, but that's about it, and are also on a B2B. On the other side, Minnesota is really missing Michael Beasley and JJ Barea. Ridnour missed practice Tuesday and I don't know if he's playing in this game yet.

But somehow the oddsmakers think this is the time for the Wolves to lay their largest spread of the year at -8. The only reason the Wolves are 9-4 ATS is because the books were giving them a ton of free points to start the season, owing to their tragically bad season last year (like the Carolina Panthers early ATS run this year).

So playing this game is choosing between betting a team that's being heavily overvalued by the books, or one that's exactly as bad as we all think they are. It's a pass for me.

[demens]

Denver seems like a team that if they win, they win big. But if they lose they dont cover (2-3 ats in the small sample of games so far). As long as Philly is at full strength i think they take care of the Nuggs on a b2b. Waiting on Hawes status.

[No coincidences]

1/18

Nuggets +6 (-110) x1

This line is not right. Six points is too many to give to Denver here. The Sixers' greatest advantage against most teams is their depth off the bench. They can rotate highly talented athletic players in and out against teams with weak benches, and they just wear the other team out. This is pretty clear from the intensity they usually bring in the 4th quarter. Denver is not a team where they can do this with the same effect as the Nuggets have the depth and talent to hang with anyone in a high-tempo game. I feel like this will be a very close game.

I want to take this as well, but demens is right about Denver. Makes me leery. Easy road win last night. They're every bit as good -- if not better -- than Philly, but in this spot I'm a little hesitant. Sixers seem legit. Probably a pass for me, but BOL SK.

[No coincidences]

I have no respect for the Pistons. They have some talented guards, but very little presence up front and rank in the bottom quarter in most offensive and defensive categories. Going into this game, they have a speed advantage over the slower Wolves, but that's about it, and are also on a B2B. On the other side, Minnesota is really missing Michael Beasley and JJ Barea. Ridnour missed practice Tuesday and I don't know if he's playing in this game yet.

But somehow the oddsmakers think this is the time for the Wolves to lay their largest spread of the year at -8. The only reason the Wolves are 9-4 ATS is because the books were giving them a ton of free points to start the season, owing to their tragically bad season last year (like the Carolina Panthers early ATS run this year).

So playing this game is choosing between betting a team that's being heavily overvalued by the books, or one that's exactly as bad as we all think they are. It's a pass for me.

T'Wolves have no business being favored by 8.5 against anyone, but you're right: the Pistons are just plain awful. Hard to say either way here. I sure as hell wouldn't lay the 8.5.

[demens]

I actually have no issues with the Twolves being a 9 point fav. I was actually contemplating taking that. They have been a bit better then their record. Obviously they are a bit overhyped due to some close games vs good teams and Rubio+Love. But if you look at stuff like power rankings and margin of victory they are not a bad team at all. They still dont really have it together and are prone to bad loses, like that one at home to Cavs (booo).

I likely staying away but not cause of the line, cause they are going to LA next. Not sure about their level on concentration for this one. Loves a UCLA guy, Rubio kind of wanted to play in LA, even though its not the Lakers they are facing they are nowhere near the level of great teams that take every game seriously.

[No coincidences]

I actually have no issues with the Twolves being a 9 point fav. I was actually contemplating taking that. They have been a bit better then their record. Obviously they are a bit overhyped due to some close games vs good teams and Rubio+Love. But if you look at stuff like power rankings and margin of victory they are not a bad team at all. They still dont really have it together and are prone to bad loses, like that one at home to Cavs (booo).

I likely staying away but not cause of the line, cause they are going to LA next. Not sure about their level on concentration for this one. Loves a UCLA guy, Rubio kind of wanted to play in LA, even though its not the Lakers they are facing they are nowhere near the level of great teams that take every game seriously.

Don't get me wrong -- I like the Timberwolves a lot and think they'll get even better as the season progresses. Just don't think they cover in this particular game.

[suicidekings]

1/18 Nuggets +6 (-110) x1

Nets -2 (-130) x1

Great spot for the Nets here to take advantage of the Warriors in a 4in5 and playing the last game of their cross-country road trip. I'm taking -2 (-130) as a half measure in a game where I would normally want to play the ML. I think Deron Williams really steps up tonight.

Mavs ML (-140) x2
This is a prime line. The Mavs have been in town for days, the Clippers are depleted, and playing B2B. I think Paul will not play, and if he is playing at this point, you can pretty much guarantee he's still hurting or else his status would have been confirmed as playing before now. The line is moving fast now.

1/19

Jazz -2 (-110) x2

Tough spot for the Mavs, spending a few days in LA at sea level, then going B2B @LAC & @UTA before having to travel to New Orleans. I like the Jazz to outwork what should be a tired Mavs team with Dirk not really playing how he should be yet, and Jason Kidd having an awful year so far.

[suicidekings]

This is turning into a night with more opportunity than expected. I'm really liking the Mavs tonight more and more.

[I am Happy]

Me too

[I am Happy]

You're Nugget rationale is spot on as well, IMO.

[riffraff24]

Rolling with Denver and Dallas as well. Good luck buddy!

[suicidekings]

You're Nugget rationale is spot on as well, IMO.

Rolling with Denver and Dallas as well. Good luck buddy!

That second quarter is exactly what I'm talking about with the Nuggets. Philly came out throwing haymakers from the start, but the Nuggets are so tough to maintain separation from for an entire game. Looking great so far.

[riffraff24]

Wooo! Got a tad scary there for a sec lol. Good stuff my dude

What's the most you would lay with the Mavs? Still take it at -3.5? Watching the crowd make their way to Staples from my balcony and it seems a bit dead out there haha.

[riffraff24]

CP3 missed shoot around and is still questionable.

Dirk missed practice with a cold.

[suicidekings]

CP3 missed shoot around and is still questionable. Dirk missed practice with a cold.

I think Paul being out for the Clippers hurts them more than Dirk potentially being out. I wouldn't lay -3.5 though. I like the ML and will probably just sit on my current bet. No need to go big on this one.

[riffraff24]

Yea I hear you man I was just thinking of going ML to be safe. Might even wait to see if I get a better live ML at some point in the game but Dallas coming out hot might ruin that opportunity.

[suicidekings]

1/18

Nuggets +6 (-110) x1
Nets -2 (-130) x1
Mavs ML (-140) x2

1/18: 2-0 (+2u), 1 pending

[hawley]

Good things happening in here. nice to see

[GTS925]

Thanks for the Nuggets pick. Spot on!

[Love The Action]

Nice night SK.

Any thoughts about this line movement in favor of the Clippers?

[suicidekings]

Nice night SK. Any thoughts about this line movement in favor of the Clippers?

So much random noise in the line movement because of questions surrounding Dirk/Paul. It's pretty hard to take anything meaningful out of it. Big public corrections on news of a key player's status in the final two hours before tip is probably the least meaningful money out there. There's almost always an overreaction.

Paul got ruled out first, which bumped it from -2.5 to -3.5, then Dirk's presence became a question, and it started fluctuating depending on the shop. Dirk is in the starting lineup now, but he's not 100%.

I think Dallas is unquestionably the play here, at -2 or on the ML.