LTA's NBA Plays

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 09:42 PM

no okafor kaman, nba analysts believe clippers will play good d. dont listen to much what they say but words of encouragement are needed in tough times sometimes

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by szyy604

i understand that the 64 pt 1st wont happen again tonight, but don't you think that 32 pt 4th made up for that? i'm a firm believer in law of avg in this case, and if you even that out you'd get 2 48pt quarters. still high, but not unreasonable. Also, clippers DO play faster at home given from the site your provided, and NO plays faster on the road

Yes, I do. However, I think it's more likely for these teams to have another 35-40 point quarter than a 55-60 point quarter. These teams just played and defensive adjustments will be made.

How do you figure that the Clippers play a fast pace at home. They average an 89 PACE at home which is third worst in the league. On the year, they average 88.9. Are you really suggesting that .1 supports your argument that the Clippers are a fast paced team at home? I suppose technically they are faster by .1 at home, but in reality assuming that the Clippers are all of a sudden going to run and gun with Chris Paul as your point guard is incorrect. Now I'm not saying this won't go over, but I can all but guarantee that the games PACE does not exceed 89.8 or so. Would you like to make a points wager that the PACE of the game stays under 90?

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 09:47 PM

LTA I really dont think you should quit the sides. I mean you know your discpline and management A LOT better than myself. But by doing are you inferring its not variance and rather just unpredicatable finals of games? ive seen plenty of time you hit these, and there bound to hit because majority of these the books are losing with us. They won't let that happena and will adjust, and I just think your so advanced at reading adjustments etc that you could benefit from the recent slide

**alamo** · 03-26-12, 09:48 PM

Good luck everyone who is sticking with the play (incl yours truly). Lets hope this is the start of a new winning streak.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

LTA I really dont think you should quit the sides. I mean you know your discpline and management A LOT better than myself. But by doing are you inferring its not variance and rather just unpredicatable finals of games? ive seen plenty of time you hit these, and there bound to hit because majority of these the books are losing with us. They won't let that happena and will adjust, and I just think your so advanced at reading adjustments etc that you could benefit from the recent slide

It's not that I'm giving up on sides, just laying off situational side plays based on the fatigue. Classic fatigue angles have not been doing well over the last 45 days or so. I think it may be wise to lay off for awhile and just track them for a few weeks and stick to totals and side plays from my model.

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 09:56 PM

Thats a good idea. Its the shortened season im tellin ya sharps are getting killed

**szyy604** · 03-26-12, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yes, I do. However, I think it's more likely for these teams to have another 35-40 point quarter than a 55-60 point quarter. These teams just played and defensive adjustments will be made.

How do you figure that the Clippers play a fast pace at home. They average an 89 PACE at home which is third worst in the league. On the year, they average 88.9. Are you really suggesting that .1 supports your argument that the Clippers are a fast paced team at home? I suppose technically they are faster by .1 at home, but in reality assuming that the Clippers are all of a sudden going to run and gun with Chris Paul as your point guard is incorrect. Now I'm not saying this won't go over, but I can all but guarantee that the games PACE does not exceed 89.8 or so. Would you like to make a points wager that the PACE of the game stays under 90?

I meant faster* than on the road.

**alamo** · 03-26-12, 10:24 PM

What a weird fcking game. Clips missed their first 9 shots. Since then they've gone 14/15

The Clips hit their first 8 in a row. The pace is snails pace. Were nearly at the half and these fcks can't miss.

All that said Im liking our position but it would help if they could start missing some

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-26-12, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

LTA I really dont think you should quit the sides. I mean you know your discpline and management A LOT better than myself. But by doing are you inferring its not variance and rather just unpredicatable finals of games? ive seen plenty of time you hit these, and there bound to hit because majority of these the books are losing with us. They won't let that happena and will adjust, and I just think your so advanced at reading adjustments etc that you could benefit from the recent slide

LTA or anybody...does anyone here tracks LTA NBA totals vs. sides record this season?

Been curious for awhile.

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 10:32 PM

over will be a little off pace but i think we have a good shot

**Kurtz** · 03-26-12, 10:32 PM

I know you have this belief that I secretly desire to go tout regardless of the fact that everything I have done on here says otherwise. However, if you want to see a real tout-in-waiting, check out this guy. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...1-9-units.html From what I've read, he has all the characteristics of a tout wannabe (i.e. posts on multiple forums, has monitors checking his record, only does daily threads, has a twitter etc.). That should provide you with some fun.

You called it with this guy LTA. His twitter tonight read, "early leans will be e-mailed to (financial) contributors tonight, not posted on twitter."

I appreciate all the FREE contributions you make on your thread. Best of luck on the remainder of the NBA season and beyond.

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 10:35 PM

Lta will never drop to the level of touts

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

LTA or anybody...does anyone here tracks LTA NBA totals vs. sides record this season?

Been curious for awhile.

At .500 now on sides after this evening's loss with NJ and 10 games over .500 on totals.

**Washington4skins** · 03-26-12, 10:47 PM

Thinking of throwing .25u on the hornets to come back and win at +1100; anyone have thoughts on the matter/up for an action bet?

**alamo** · 03-26-12, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I'm going to side with the books in this game and ride out the under....good luck guys if you decide to play it as well.

LTA, I may have misunderstood you but from this post I assume you stuck with the play or did you cancel the bet by buying out.

PS. Im hoping you stuck with it as its looking +ev right now

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by Kurtz

I know you have this belief that I secretly desire to go tout regardless of the fact that everything I have done on here says otherwise. However, if you want to see a real tout-in-waiting, check out this guy. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...1-9-units.html From what I've read, he has all the characteristics of a tout wannabe (i.e. posts on multiple forums, has monitors checking his record, only does daily threads, has a twitter etc.). That should provide you with some fun.

You called it with this guy LTA. His twitter tonight read, "early leans will be e-mailed to (financial) contributors tonight, not posted on twitter."

I appreciate all the FREE contributions you make on your thread. Best of luck on the remainder of the NBA season and beyond.

That guy screamed tout from a mile away. He was waiting to go on a hot streak to get all the sheep "hooked" on his plays like a drug dealer would prey on kids. That's classic touting. The problem is that right when he starts charging for picks, variance is due to kick in and he will go on a cold spell. You can see how pissed people get in here when I give out free losers, imagine how pissed they would be when they are paying for it. I have a bad feeling people are going to end up hating that guy.

That's why I've never understood those that think I have a sinister motive for posting my plays. I have no desire to ever "turn tout." While I don't begrudge someone the right to make money off their plays -- because the right to sell a unique service for which people are willing to pay is a pillar of the capitalism that I love -- it's just not something that appeals to me. That's a full time job and it's a very seedy business with lies, dirty tactics, stealing emails, fake names, etc. I understand those guys that have no other way to make money and need to feed their kids, but I love my real world career and make way more money doing that than I could ever make from selling picks. If the economy affected my career and I was unable to work or when I retire, I wouldn't mind being a paid contributor to a free site like SBR some other website that derives all of its content from advertising. I think it would be fun to write articles, give advice and provide plays for free. But I would never sell plays....that's just nothing but bad karma.

**Kurtz** · 03-26-12, 10:57 PM

I'm glad to hear that you will focus on totals for the time being. In your original post you stated, "I am a big totals player in all of the sports I handicap but especially in the NBA and WNBA. However, I will have the occasional side play (usually one or two side plays per week). I'm done with the negative variance and intend on hammering each and every one of your picks from here on out.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by alamo

LTA, I may have misunderstood you but from this post I assume you stuck with the play or did you cancel the bet by buying out.

PS. Im hoping you stuck with it as its looking +ev right now

That's correct. I rode out the under. Hopefully we have a nice slow 4th quarter as I think we will. Good luck.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-26-12, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

At .500 now on sides after this evening's loss with NJ and 10 games over .500 on totals.

Thanks for the response LTA...I just cannot emphasize enough how I suspect many different NBA handicapping methodologies are going to be skewed this year due to the shortened season.

There is simply no data to refer to for the amazing scheduling fatigue models that we see every day.

3 in 4 night games schedule for teams are common...not special like in a normal 82 game season.

BTW 162 pace...looks like the gods are starting to smile again.

Catch

**Kurtz** · 03-26-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by alamo

LTA, I may have misunderstood you but from this post I assume you stuck with the play or did you cancel the bet by buying out.

PS. Im hoping you stuck with it as its looking +ev right now

He stuck with it. Under projected at 159 at 7 minute mark of 3rd quarter.

**alamo** · 03-26-12, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That's correct. I rode out the under. Hopefully we have a nice slow 4th quarter as I think we will. Good luck.

Good to hear LTA!

On the subject of switching to totals I for one am excited that your going to fully focus on these for the time being. I have always felt you have a better feel for totals and always have that extra bit of confidence when I play totals ahead of your sides (That's not to say I don't play them as well). Your models are second to none and I, like a lot on here will continue to tail them knowing they are +ev

As always thanks for your time on here.

**Speedy88** · 03-26-12, 11:08 PM

Your under is looking good. Hope you turn it around here soon. Your due for a big day.

**alamo** · 03-26-12, 11:38 PM

Clips in the penalty and were not 3mins into the 4th. I cant believe this total is going to be close.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 11:40 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/27/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Suns over (202) 1x (Locked)

The health of the Spurs is improving as I expect Ginobli, Duncan and Parker to all suit up on Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see Neal and Splitter, although it is likely that they split. Regardless, we have two teams that have begun to play much faster of late and who are both top 10 in PACE for the season regardless. In the first game between these two teams in January, we played the over at 196 ad lost as it ended at 193. Despite that under, the books agree that this game should be higher scoring and they set this one at an opener of 201. Since that open, that number has been bet up to the 202 it currently sits. I expect over money tomorrow to push this one up to the 203 range where it should close. Both teams are top 10 in OEFF and bottom 1/3 in DEFF. If you look at the previous game, that one only hit 193 despite a 95 PACE for the game. The reason? Well, SA only shot 26% from beyond the arc, well below their league leading season average of 39%. In addition, Phoenix only shot 40% for the game and 33% from 3 point range. Finally both teams only shot about 74% from the ft line. I expect all of those numbers to improve on Tuesday night. As long as we see a similar PACE at or around 92 or 93, this game should sail over the posted total. I have this game set at 205.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**Washington4skins** · 03-26-12, 11:59 PM

Clips and Hornets aren't really cooperating, 173 with 2:32 left. Talk about a sweat!

**remypom** · 03-27-12, 12:05 AM

Feel bad for people who got it at 181.5

**Washington4skins** · 03-27-12, 12:05 AM

Wow, Ive never seen anything so fcking crazy. First, the clippers shoot with 8 seconds on the clock and a 15 point lead instead of letting the shot clock expire. Then they foul on the inbound pass and give up free throws... Not to mention that Foye, who took the shot with 8 seconds left, fouled in the corner with a min left and a 15 point lead. What a joke.

**XGamer** · 03-27-12, 12:05 AM

F*ck, the last foul killed me. I had at 181.5!

**alamo** · 03-27-12, 12:06 AM

7secs to play...Clips make a 2pt shot to bring it to 181

1sec later they foul immediately ?

0:07		84-97	Trey Thompkins makes 17-foot jumper
0:06		84-97	Reggie Evans personal foul (Greivis Vasquez draws the foul)
0:06	Greivis Vasquez misses free throw 1 of 2	84-97
0:06	New Orleans offensive team rebound	84-97
0:06	Greivis Vasquez makes free throw 2 of 2	85-97
0:00	End of the 4th Quarter

Get the fck out of here

**brucethebear** · 03-27-12, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by Washington4skins

Wow, Ive never seen anything so fcking crazy. First, the clippers shoot with 8 seconds on the clock and a 15 point lead instead of letting the shot clock expire. Then they foul on the inbound pass and give up free throws... What a joke.

I'll take a push over the loss, but seriously.....

**ram749** · 03-27-12, 12:07 AM

Meaningless free throw killed me too , sick , I had 181.5 too big swing for me on the night!

**remypom** · 03-27-12, 12:08 AM

Nba is rigged boys. Grateful he didn't get a pair n just one ft. Thought we would get a break too.. Looked good till seconds before end

**Love The Action** · 03-27-12, 12:09 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/26/2012

0 - 1 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

112 - 102 = +6.9x

Unreal last second push on that Clippers under. We had a 52 point cushion going into the 4th quarter on a 182 total...that play cashes over 75% of the time. When it rains it pours...onto Tuesday. Good luck.

**alamo** · 03-27-12, 12:14 AM

Ive never seen anything like that before. They were up 16pts. You just make a shot, 6secs to go and he barely even fouled him. The ref blew immediately. That was very very dodgy.

**Washington4skins** · 03-27-12, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by alamo

Ive never seen anything like that before. They were up 16pts. You just make a shot, 6secs to go and he barely even fouled him. The ref blew immediately. That was very very dodgy.

Why were they even shooting? Pretty standard NBA practice to take a 24 second violation with a double digit lead and less then 10 seconds on the clock. Moreover Frye, who took the shot, had fouled in the corner on a meaningless play two possessions prior! Now that is what is sketchy...