LTA's NBA Plays

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  • mikea33
    SBR MVP
    • 11-14-11
    • 2149

    #8716
    Welcome to the party Illy.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #8717
      Originally posted by TC Woods
      Wow... NJ really sucks
      It's crazy how traditional fatigue angles which have been successful over time have completely shit the bed over the last month. I may have to just stick with totals for awhile as these historically successful situational plays I like to make have not been doing well. I just can't understand how the Nets didn't come out with emotion today considering how bad Utah played. The Nets could have easily won this game had they just given a modicum of effort. Very disappointing.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #8718
        Originally posted by IllyPhilly[DOC]
        Have you still been looking at the o/u under line movement on the NOH game LTA? I really like the under 183. The over is getting of the action yet the line maybe squeaked up .5
        See post 8669.
        Comment
        • JM92
          SBR MVP
          • 01-27-12
          • 1140

          #8719
          Im loving Memphis tommorow at 5.5, getting a Wolves team without Pekovic. I know Memphis is not a team to be blowing guys out, but these game means as much for them as it does for the Wolves, who have a much more winnable game next night against the Bobcats. Statiscally all things point towards the Grizz as well.
          Comment
          • TC Woods
            SBR MVP
            • 12-17-11
            • 1780

            #8720
            Originally posted by Love The Action
            It's crazy how traditional fatigue angles which have been successful over time have completely shit the bed over the last month. I may have to just stick with totals for awhile as these historically successful situational plays I like to make have not been doing well. I just can't understand how the Nets didn't come out with emotion today considering how bad Utah played. The Nets could have easily won this game had they just given a modicum of effort. Very disappointing.
            Maybe it's time to move to MLB....

            Been disappointed with the effort by so many teams lately.
            Comment
            • Dave88
              SBR High Roller
              • 06-09-11
              • 130

              #8721
              What is it with the Jazz this season? It seems when we go against them, they win. We go with them, they lose.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #8722
                Originally posted by TC Woods
                Maybe it's time to move to MLB....

                Been disappointed with the effort by so many teams lately.
                Nah....that's loser talk. I have no reason to stop investing in the NBA. There are over two months left and the playoffs are the most profitable time of the NBA season when I will have multiple unit plays on a daily basis. I love the NBA for better or worse. I just need to adapt a little better to how this season is playing out. If you don't adapt you die. I will probably take a break from playing sides for awhile and stick to totals until these situational plays start hitting again. We'll see. I'm playing with house money many times over so I'm not exactly worried about a little slide.
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #8723
                  Originally posted by Dave88
                  What is it with the Jazz this season? It seems when we go against them, they win. We go with them, they lose.
                  I hate the Jazz
                  Comment
                  • mikea33
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-14-11
                    • 2149

                    #8724
                    Jazz burned us aplenty. Its just the NBAs weird way of saying "where amazing happens." night in and night out.

                    old teams with old legs on the last leg of a b2b2b2b2bb2b2 are out working teams that are young and freshrested at home for example. Very unpredictable and I dont think its the capping, as we all know the outlooks are right on. Just seems like the 'sharp' picks are taking a hit lately in the NBA.
                    Comment
                    • d3llan
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 02-09-12
                      • 5

                      #8725
                      LTA, where do you find your infomation about each teams pace? I can only find the total pace of the current season...
                      Comment
                      • TC Woods
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-17-11
                        • 1780

                        #8726
                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                        Nah....that's loser talk. I have no reason to stop investing in the NBA. There are over two months left and the playoffs are the most profitable time of the NBA season when I will have multiple unit plays on a daily basis. I love the NBA for better or worse. I just need to adapt a little better to how this season is playing out. If you don't adapt you die. I will probably take a break from playing sides for awhile and stick to totals until these situational plays start hitting again. We'll see. I'm playing with house money many times over so I'm not exactly worried about a little slide.


                        Thanks for setting me straight, don't want to be considered a "loser" so I will clean up my act...

                        On to the next one!!!

                        Comment
                        • szyy604
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-07-11
                          • 107

                          #8727
                          hi LTA, i haven't posted in your thread before but i've often read your stuff.

                          for the clipps game, a couple of things; with the clippers playing at home, you can't expect them to shoot 38% again, and 18.5 from 3's. I had a really hard time deciding on this game, mostly because the public is pounding the over and it doesn't make me feel good about having the over.

                          with both teams having over 102 D-eff, i expect the clippers to strive. NO excels at the 3-9ft which is where the clippers struggle to defend, on the other hand NO struggles at the rim. As far as the PACE, it worries me a lot having 2 of the top 5 slowest teams playing. But i don't think it accurately reflects the clippers capability of playing at a faster pace.

                          Bottom line is, my numbers have the clippers shooting around a 48/35 split, and should put up around 95-100 points imo. NO will prob shoot closer to 45%, and I doubt they'll put up more than 7 3's. At that number...given the "efficiency" of the spread, you'd have NO at around 85-90 points. which in my opinion is too close of an under to play.

                          what do you think?

                          your thoughts?
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #8728
                            Originally posted by d3llan
                            LTA, where do you find your infomation about each teams pace? I can only find the total pace of the current season...
                            Just an FYI, there's this crazy new website called "google" where you can get a lot of easily searchable information....I heard it works great

                            JK, There's a ton of sites out there but I really use these a lot:

                            Checkout the statistics, scores & history of every team & NBA and WNBA players and more on Basketball-Reference.com


                            The #1 site for objective sports predictions, rankings, and stats. Offers picks, odds and tools for NFL, NBA, MLB, college football and college basketball.


                            82games.com is a pioneering site covering the NBA from an analytical persepctive. Founded by a championship winning NBA stats coach and front office executive.

                            www.espn.com (look for John Hollinger stuff on there such as PER ratings)
                            NBA stats that can't be found out elsewhere! Basketball analytics glossary and NBA stats tables are being used by many who want simplified analysis.


                            There's more that I can't think of right now....good luck.
                            Comment
                            • mikea33
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-14-11
                              • 2149

                              #8729
                              LTA.........the situational plays will hit. The nets gave a lackluster effort on a game they could have won. Not for nothing, Jazz were fatigued in the 2H, even the 1H....but the Nets didnt do anything to capitilize. Its the weirdness of the shortened season
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #8730
                                Originally posted by szyy604
                                hi LTA, i haven't posted in your thread before but i've often read your stuff.

                                for the clipps game, a couple of things; with the clippers playing at home, you can't expect them to shoot 38% again, and 18.5 from 3's. I had a really hard time deciding on this game, mostly because the public is pounding the over and it doesn't make me feel good about having the over.

                                with both teams having over 102 D-eff, i expect the clippers to strive. NO excels at the 3-9ft which is where the clippers struggle to defend, on the other hand NO struggles at the rim. As far as the PACE, it worries me a lot having 2 of the top 5 slowest teams playing. But i don't think it accurately reflects the clippers capability of playing at a faster pace.

                                Bottom line is, my numbers have the clippers shooting around a 48/35 split, and should put up around 95-100 points imo. NO will prob shoot closer to 45%, and I doubt they'll put up more than 7 3's. At that number...given the "efficiency" of the spread, you'd have NO at around 85-90 points. which in my opinion is too close of an under to play.

                                what do you think?

                                your thoughts?
                                My thoughts are posted all over the last two pages, specifically where I posted the under as a play with a writeup in post 8669. Good luck.
                                Comment
                                • szyy604
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-07-11
                                  • 107

                                  #8731
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Play #2

                                  Hornets/Clippers under (182) 1x (Locked)

                                  My thoughts on this play are in numerous plays above and we just played this same matchup on the under a few days ago. I don't think we'll see another 64 point quarter like we did in that game. I think Pinny drops the juice on the over 181.5 soon and starts juicing the under so I'm jumping on the 182 while I still can. I expect a slow methodical pace in this game just like we had a few days ago. However, I don't think the Hornets will shoot 57% just like I don't think the Clippers will shoot 38%. The Clippers should improve while the Hornets take a step back. As long as both teams keep it under 47%, we should be ok at the 86.2 PACE these guys played at last week. If this one jumps to 182 on Pinny, I may have to think about buying out. However, I like the under in this spot and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
                                  do you really think this game is gonna stay at the 86.2 pace? thats extremely low, even for these 2 teams. and clippers pace increases at home.
                                  Comment
                                  • meader99
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-30-10
                                    • 4223

                                    #8732
                                    Gimme Portland tomorrow night as a strong play.
                                    Comment
                                    • szyy604
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 11-07-11
                                      • 107

                                      #8733
                                      no i understand your thoughts, valid points. I guess we'll see who's right later =]
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #8734
                                        Originally posted by TC Woods


                                        Thanks for setting me straight, don't want to be considered a "loser" so I will clean up my act...

                                        On to the next one!!!

                                        No, I didn't mean it in a mean way, more in a way of motivation. I mean, if you want to give up on the NBA because you have not had long term success then you should do what you feel comfortable with. However, I have a long term winning record in the NBA and don't plan on that changing, so it would be stupid for me to even consider giving up on the season. To me -- and just me with my own personal situation -- it would be "loser talk" for me to consider giving up. I never quit on anything. It takes more than a couple bad weeks to discourage me.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #8735
                                          Originally posted by szyy604
                                          do you really think this game is gonna stay at the 86.2 pace? thats extremely low, even for these 2 teams. and clippers pace increases at home.
                                          No they don't, you are just assuming that the Clippers play faster at home when in fact that is untrue. The Clippers play at an average PACE of 89 at home and even slower of late.

                                          Here are the stats. http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_...ced_Stats.html
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #8736
                                            Originally posted by szyy604
                                            no i understand your thoughts, valid points. I guess we'll see who's right later =]
                                            I'm more worried that Pinny just moved to 182 than anything else. Now I might have to buy out.
                                            Comment
                                            • mikea33
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-14-11
                                              • 2149

                                              #8737
                                              I think you were debating buying out of the other one and it didnt hit. Mabye itll be the opposite and hit! Let us know what ya do LTA
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #8738
                                                Originally posted by mikea33
                                                I think you were debating buying out of the other one and it didnt hit. Mabye itll be the opposite and hit! Let us know what ya do LTA
                                                I might not decide until the last minute because it depends on what the line does but will always post my decision. If it moves back to 181.5, I would surely keep the play. If it stays at 182, then I have a decision to make. Still, I don't generally buy out because that just adds to your losses over time via the juice.
                                                Comment
                                                • XGamer
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 02-05-12
                                                  • 38

                                                  #8739
                                                  So, LTA, will u buy out the play 2 since the line has moved toward 182?

                                                  PS. after i posted, i saw your post. so that means i have to keep eye on the line!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CaptainNemo89
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 03-31-11
                                                    • 89

                                                    #8740
                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                    I'm more worried that Pinny just moved to 182 than anything else. Now I might have to buy out.
                                                    LTA, what is it about this particular half-point line movement that makes you hesitate on this play? I only ask because I remember you saying you dont pay much attention to small line movements here and there. Not criticizing at all, just candidly asking
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #8741
                                                      Originally posted by CaptainNemo89
                                                      LTA, what is it about this particular half-point line movement that makes you hesitate on this play? I only ask because I remember you saying you dont pay much attention to small line movements here and there. Not criticizing at all, just candidly asking
                                                      Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • alamo
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-21-09
                                                        • 7131

                                                        #8742
                                                        Sportingbet has just moved it to 182.5

                                                        Comment
                                                        • mikea33
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-14-11
                                                          • 2149

                                                          #8743
                                                          my local still at 182
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CaptainNemo89
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 03-31-11
                                                            • 89

                                                            #8744
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.
                                                            Gotchya, thanks for the quick response. I like the emphasis you put on looking at trends and abnormalities in teams' previous matchups, its an analysis i definitely undervalued until now... goodluck on the play, im on it with ya
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mikea33
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-14-11
                                                              • 2149

                                                              #8745
                                                              there juicing the over at -102 pinnacle is
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mikea33
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-14-11
                                                                • 2149

                                                                #8746
                                                                down to -101 now
                                                                Comment
                                                                • szyy604
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-07-11
                                                                  • 107

                                                                  #8747
                                                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                  Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.

                                                                  i understand that the 64 pt 1st wont happen again tonight, but don't you think that 32 pt 4th made up for that? i'm a firm believer in law of avg in this case, and if you even that out you'd get 2 48pt quarters. still high, but not unreasonable. Also, clippers DO play faster at home given from the site your provided, and NO plays faster on the road
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #8748
                                                                    I'm going to side with the books in this game and ride out the under....good luck guys if you decide to play it as well.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • XGamer
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 02-05-12
                                                                      • 38

                                                                      #8749
                                                                      Oh well, I am on the same boat with LTA as a Winner.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • mikea33
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-14-11
                                                                        • 2149

                                                                        #8750
                                                                        LTA im excited to get even (-.1x) and let the grind continue.

                                                                        Just a winner here and there to trigger a streak
                                                                        Comment
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