Welcome to the party Illy.
LTA's NBA Plays
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mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8716Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8717It's crazy how traditional fatigue angles which have been successful over time have completely shit the bed over the last month. I may have to just stick with totals for awhile as these historically successful situational plays I like to make have not been doing well. I just can't understand how the Nets didn't come out with emotion today considering how bad Utah played. The Nets could have easily won this game had they just given a modicum of effort. Very disappointing.Comment -
JM92SBR MVP
- 01-27-12
- 1140
#8719Im loving Memphis tommorow at 5.5, getting a Wolves team without Pekovic. I know Memphis is not a team to be blowing guys out, but these game means as much for them as it does for the Wolves, who have a much more winnable game next night against the Bobcats. Statiscally all things point towards the Grizz as well.Comment -
TC WoodsSBR MVP
- 12-17-11
- 1780
#8720It's crazy how traditional fatigue angles which have been successful over time have completely shit the bed over the last month. I may have to just stick with totals for awhile as these historically successful situational plays I like to make have not been doing well. I just can't understand how the Nets didn't come out with emotion today considering how bad Utah played. The Nets could have easily won this game had they just given a modicum of effort. Very disappointing.
Been disappointed with the effort by so many teams lately.Comment -
Dave88SBR High Roller
- 06-09-11
- 130
#8721What is it with the Jazz this season? It seems when we go against them, they win. We go with them, they lose.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8722Nah....that's loser talk. I have no reason to stop investing in the NBA. There are over two months left and the playoffs are the most profitable time of the NBA season when I will have multiple unit plays on a daily basis. I love the NBA for better or worse. I just need to adapt a little better to how this season is playing out. If you don't adapt you die. I will probably take a break from playing sides for awhile and stick to totals until these situational plays start hitting again. We'll see. I'm playing with house money many times over so I'm not exactly worried about a little slide.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8724Jazz burned us aplenty. Its just the NBAs weird way of saying "where amazing happens." night in and night out.
old teams with old legs on the last leg of a b2b2b2b2bb2b2 are out working teams that are young and freshrested at home for example. Very unpredictable and I dont think its the capping, as we all know the outlooks are right on. Just seems like the 'sharp' picks are taking a hit lately in the NBA.Comment -
d3llanSBR Rookie
- 02-09-12
- 5
#8725LTA, where do you find your infomation about each teams pace? I can only find the total pace of the current season...Comment -
TC WoodsSBR MVP
- 12-17-11
- 1780
#8726Nah....that's loser talk. I have no reason to stop investing in the NBA. There are over two months left and the playoffs are the most profitable time of the NBA season when I will have multiple unit plays on a daily basis. I love the NBA for better or worse. I just need to adapt a little better to how this season is playing out. If you don't adapt you die. I will probably take a break from playing sides for awhile and stick to totals until these situational plays start hitting again. We'll see. I'm playing with house money many times over so I'm not exactly worried about a little slide.
Thanks for setting me straight, don't want to be considered a "loser" so I will clean up my act...
On to the next one!!!
Comment -
szyy604SBR High Roller
- 11-07-11
- 107
#8727hi LTA, i haven't posted in your thread before but i've often read your stuff.
for the clipps game, a couple of things; with the clippers playing at home, you can't expect them to shoot 38% again, and 18.5 from 3's. I had a really hard time deciding on this game, mostly because the public is pounding the over and it doesn't make me feel good about having the over.
with both teams having over 102 D-eff, i expect the clippers to strive. NO excels at the 3-9ft which is where the clippers struggle to defend, on the other hand NO struggles at the rim. As far as the PACE, it worries me a lot having 2 of the top 5 slowest teams playing. But i don't think it accurately reflects the clippers capability of playing at a faster pace.
Bottom line is, my numbers have the clippers shooting around a 48/35 split, and should put up around 95-100 points imo. NO will prob shoot closer to 45%, and I doubt they'll put up more than 7 3's. At that number...given the "efficiency" of the spread, you'd have NO at around 85-90 points. which in my opinion is too close of an under to play.
what do you think?
your thoughts?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8728
JK, There's a ton of sites out there but I really use these a lot:
Checkout the statistics, scores & history of every team & NBA and WNBA players and more on Basketball-Reference.com
The #1 site for objective sports predictions, rankings, and stats. Offers picks, odds and tools for NFL, NBA, MLB, college football and college basketball.
82games.com is a pioneering site covering the NBA from an analytical persepctive. Founded by a championship winning NBA stats coach and front office executive.
www.espn.com (look for John Hollinger stuff on there such as PER ratings)
NBA stats that can't be found out elsewhere! Basketball analytics glossary and NBA stats tables are being used by many who want simplified analysis.
There's more that I can't think of right now....good luck.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8729LTA.........the situational plays will hit. The nets gave a lackluster effort on a game they could have won. Not for nothing, Jazz were fatigued in the 2H, even the 1H....but the Nets didnt do anything to capitilize. Its the weirdness of the shortened seasonComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8730hi LTA, i haven't posted in your thread before but i've often read your stuff.
for the clipps game, a couple of things; with the clippers playing at home, you can't expect them to shoot 38% again, and 18.5 from 3's. I had a really hard time deciding on this game, mostly because the public is pounding the over and it doesn't make me feel good about having the over.
with both teams having over 102 D-eff, i expect the clippers to strive. NO excels at the 3-9ft which is where the clippers struggle to defend, on the other hand NO struggles at the rim. As far as the PACE, it worries me a lot having 2 of the top 5 slowest teams playing. But i don't think it accurately reflects the clippers capability of playing at a faster pace.
Bottom line is, my numbers have the clippers shooting around a 48/35 split, and should put up around 95-100 points imo. NO will prob shoot closer to 45%, and I doubt they'll put up more than 7 3's. At that number...given the "efficiency" of the spread, you'd have NO at around 85-90 points. which in my opinion is too close of an under to play.
what do you think?
your thoughts?Comment -
szyy604SBR High Roller
- 11-07-11
- 107
#8731Play #2
Hornets/Clippers under (182) 1x (Locked)
My thoughts on this play are in numerous plays above and we just played this same matchup on the under a few days ago. I don't think we'll see another 64 point quarter like we did in that game. I think Pinny drops the juice on the over 181.5 soon and starts juicing the under so I'm jumping on the 182 while I still can. I expect a slow methodical pace in this game just like we had a few days ago. However, I don't think the Hornets will shoot 57% just like I don't think the Clippers will shoot 38%. The Clippers should improve while the Hornets take a step back. As long as both teams keep it under 47%, we should be ok at the 86.2 PACE these guys played at last week. If this one jumps to 182 on Pinny, I may have to think about buying out. However, I like the under in this spot and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
meader99SBR MVP
- 10-30-10
- 4223
#8732Gimme Portland tomorrow night as a strong play.Comment -
szyy604SBR High Roller
- 11-07-11
- 107
#8733no i understand your thoughts, valid points. I guess we'll see who's right later =]Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8734No, I didn't mean it in a mean way, more in a way of motivation. I mean, if you want to give up on the NBA because you have not had long term success then you should do what you feel comfortable with. However, I have a long term winning record in the NBA and don't plan on that changing, so it would be stupid for me to even consider giving up on the season. To me -- and just me with my own personal situation -- it would be "loser talk" for me to consider giving up. I never quit on anything. It takes more than a couple bad weeks to discourage me.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8735
Here are the stats. http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_...ced_Stats.htmlComment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8737I think you were debating buying out of the other one and it didnt hit. Mabye itll be the opposite and hit! Let us know what ya do LTAComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8738I might not decide until the last minute because it depends on what the line does but will always post my decision. If it moves back to 181.5, I would surely keep the play. If it stays at 182, then I have a decision to make. Still, I don't generally buy out because that just adds to your losses over time via the juice.Comment -
XGamerSBR Rookie
- 02-05-12
- 38
#8739So, LTA, will u buy out the play 2 since the line has moved toward 182?
PS. after i posted, i saw your post. so that means i have to keep eye on the line!Comment -
CaptainNemo89SBR Hustler
- 03-31-11
- 89
#8740LTA, what is it about this particular half-point line movement that makes you hesitate on this play? I only ask because I remember you saying you dont pay much attention to small line movements here and there. Not criticizing at all, just candidly askingComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8741Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.Comment -
alamoSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-09
- 7131
#8742Sportingbet has just moved it to 182.5
Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8743my local still at 182Comment -
CaptainNemo89SBR Hustler
- 03-31-11
- 89
#8744Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8745there juicing the over at -102 pinnacle isComment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8746down to -101 nowComment -
szyy604SBR High Roller
- 11-07-11
- 107
#8747Generally you are correct, but there are no hard and fast rules. In this case, the game last week went over by 5 points because of a 64 point first quarter and over 85% of the tickets on the total cashed for the over. That game opened at 181.5 and was bet down down 181 or 180.5 depending on the outlet. In this game, the books made absolutely no adjustment in favor of the over. Instead they opened at 181.5 knowing full well that they would get even more over action in this game. In fact, most books are seeing 88% or more of pure over action. Had Pinny not moved to 182, the under would have been a clear play. However, in this case, the half point move to 182 concerns me. If it moves down before tip, I would feel better but will probably ride it out regardless because I just can't see the books giving out free money two games in a row in this matchup.
i understand that the 64 pt 1st wont happen again tonight, but don't you think that 32 pt 4th made up for that? i'm a firm believer in law of avg in this case, and if you even that out you'd get 2 48pt quarters. still high, but not unreasonable. Also, clippers DO play faster at home given from the site your provided, and NO plays faster on the roadComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#8748I'm going to side with the books in this game and ride out the under....good luck guys if you decide to play it as well.Comment -
XGamerSBR Rookie
- 02-05-12
- 38
#8749Oh well, I am on the same boat with LTA as a Winner.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#8750LTA im excited to get even (-.1x) and let the grind continue.
Just a winner here and there to trigger a streakComment
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