LTA's NBA Plays

**ph0208** · 03-25-12, 04:25 PM

Cavs shot 39% we never stood a chance

**Dtown13** · 03-25-12, 04:38 PM

Oh well, gotta find something to make up for this one. I might hedge the Heat as well. Not liking it either.

**alamo** · 03-25-12, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

To help improve your knowledge of this business. This sheds some true light on how lines are set in the "new world" of sports investing. Enjoy!

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

Just watched this LTA. Very very interesting documentary. Thanks for posting it.

**true blue 26** · 03-25-12, 04:52 PM

jesus picks been just complete garbage lately

TH · 03-25-12, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by true blue 26

jesus picks been just complete garbage lately

Agree. And this was a 2.5x play???? Seems to me like he's chasing his recent losses...

**alamo** · 03-25-12, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by TH

Agree. And this was a 2.5x play???? Seems to me like chasing losses...

Chasing losses ???

I think your in the wrong thread. LTA is up over 10x this year.

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 05:08 PM

Over analysis...and still coming up with the wrong play..trying to turn it into rocket science.

**chief42** · 03-25-12, 05:09 PM

Man I hear is complaining coming outta this thread. LTA is a winner guys, not everyday, not today, but long term. This is a marathon, not a sprint, stick with the ebbs and flows everything will work out fine and we will come out on top. Just stop complaining every time when we lose. This guy has a family and works long hours at his job and he takes what little free time he has to offer his insight so that we may make some extra cash. Appreciate what you have before it is gone.

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 05:10 PM

Well the way he is going currently alamo he will be giving that back and more...he should be faded at present.

**dlunc3** · 03-25-12, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by ph0208

Cavs shot 39% we never stood a chance

With 3:30 left in the 3rd, believe it or not the game was on pace for 209.... It was a complete collapse.

**TC Woods** · 03-25-12, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by shimeon40

Well the way he is going currently alamo he will be giving that back and more...he should be faded at present.

And you should get the fuk out of here hose bag. Go ahead and fade and keep your BS comments to yourself.

POS!

**CheeseHead** · 03-25-12, 05:20 PM

Look at the amount of total posts these guys have that are complaining..they don't talk unless it's a complaint about a loss. Pretty sure LTA is not at all concerned with it so you guys don't need to be wasting your time arguing with those people.. we'll get back those losses.

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 05:23 PM

yeah yeah you lta clowns..your all in his canoe paddling up shit creek with him..mindless cretans.

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 05:29 PM

Then why do u hover around the thread kid

**RAVENSFAN** · 03-25-12, 05:29 PM

23, and 5 posts LOL. Keep rollin LTA. Real knows real! Cavs let us down and nothin we can do about that. On to the next one!

**Redscot** · 03-25-12, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by shimeon40

yeah yeah you lta clowns..your all in his canoe paddling up shit creek with him..mindless cretans.

You hit the nail on the head, oh wait, is that your reflection in the mirror

. This game is long term.....fly by night cats crash and burn on the regular. I lost real money today, just like you. LTA probably has a bigger unit size than the both of us so he took his hit too. Simple solution if you really think he is clueless is fade him, best of luck there...long term not a winning proposition. If not, cap your games and open a thread......it's a man's world and nobody wants to here grown men bitching and whining.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-25-12, 05:37 PM

LTA can't control Antwan Jamison and the rest of the Cavs who destroyed us shooting 39%. I'm guessing those complaining lost 70% of their bankroll on this play because LTA played it for 2.5units - blame your poor bankroll management instead. -2.5 units hurts but if you have been following you will still be up 10 units and we know that we will be up more come the finals. GL if you decide to play any remaining leans LTA, will look out for them, ignore the haters and thanks for the hard work

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 05:39 PM

Guys Cavs played atrocious at home in a winnable game. Cant cap that stuff Cavs couldnt catch passes to make easy layups. Win some lose some we can still have a good night

**bmurphy003** · 03-25-12, 05:41 PM

Anyone else having thoughts on this Philly +3? I know they've played poor lately but the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on a day of rest and the Spurs are 0-3-1 in their last 4 on 0 days rest. plus with the spurs injuries seems like a no brainer to me? Wanted to know what everyone else was thinking

**dlunc3** · 03-25-12, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by bmurphy003

Anyone else having thoughts on this Philly +3? I know they've played poor lately but the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on a day of rest and the Spurs are 0-3-1 in their last 4 on 0 days rest. plus with the spurs injuries seems like a no brainer to me? Wanted to know what everyone else was thinking

on em...bol

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 05:44 PM

Im waiting to see of LTA lcks em up.
He said he had a STRONG lean towards them
Memphis minnesota and utah

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 05:44 PM

Redscot..a most sensible post

**bmur714** · 03-25-12, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

You hit the nail on the head, oh wait, is that your reflection in the mirror

. This game is long term.....fly by night cats crash and burn on the regular. I lost real money today, just like you. LTA probably has a bigger unit size than the both of us so he took his hit too. Simple solution if you really think he is clueless is fade him, best of luck there...long term not a winning proposition. If not, cap your games and open a thread......it's a man's world and nobody wants to here grown men bitching and whining.

Well said Red! I have much respect for LTA and all these usless trolls who give no contribution to this thread should GTFO!!!

Nobody is paying for his picks and its not like he goes and makes a 20x lock of the century thread either. He is one of the most disciplined cappers on here. Look at his documented history and still go call him a loser.

So if you don't like his picks go tail someone else or cap your own games and start a thread of your own. Stop adding useless noise that nobody cares about! jeezus

**SeverusSousa** · 03-25-12, 05:46 PM

I don't know if you guys are putting me in the same bag as shimeon, but i meant no disrepect. LTA always says to stay positive during games and i had a good feeling about that 4th quarter.

Love the Action is a great capper, a class act whether he wins or loses.And for me, he is also a role model. I've learned so much from him about bank management ,EV+ plays , etc. that just posting a "thank you" wouldnt be enough . Even though i dont post much, i love reading his analysis and look at this thread everyday.

Keep up the good work LTA. Greetings from Portugal.

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 05:48 PM

yes..your in the same boat severus sousa..welcome aboard

**apurvaas** · 03-25-12, 05:56 PM

Andre Iguodala-G : Iguodala is a late scratch (knee) Sunday vs. Spurs. bit.ly/H860vv

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 05:59 PM

wow great piece of info i was about to lock philly up.

Thanks

**Love The Action** · 03-25-12, 06:07 PM

Im playing philly +3 (locked)....i will try to get my usual post up soon. GL

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 06:09 PM

what else will you be playing tonight? if anything? it went off the board for me, hopefully I can get a halftime line.

**JM92** · 03-25-12, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Im playing philly +3 (locked)....i will try to get my usual post up soon. GL

Even without Iggy? I got 3.5 but wasnt able to bouht out or I would have done so.

**Love The Action** · 03-25-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/25/2012

Play #1

Suns/Cavaliers over (199) 2.5x (Locked)

This is the game I mentioned earlier and my local just opened up at 199. I have this game set at 205, giving us 6 full points of value in this matchup. Out to eat right now but I will try to get a writeup posted tomorrow. I may add to this after ref assignments are released but for now I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

I am not adding to this play because the ref assignments are not favorable for an over play. In addition, this game is now at 202.5 at Pinny so a lot of the value is gone. Consequently, I will stick with a 2.5x play on the over. This is a play I identified early as the extreme value became evident as soon as I ran this matchup through my model. In addition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the over today making this a very solid over play. These teams played under a 196.5 total in late January and yet this game opened at 199.5 telling me the books also expect a higher scoring game. Since that late January game, both offenses have improved whereby the Suns are playing at a much faster PACE which is more conducive to their traditional style of play. Both teams are now ranked in the top 10 of PACE and are top 1/3 in possession per game. I expect a fast-paced game today which highlights a point guard battle between Irving and Nash. Neither team is a defensive force and both are ranked in the bottom 10 of DEFF. In addition, Cleveland should be able to get some easy second chance points from offensive rebounds and extra scoring chances where the Cavs rank #5 and #10 respectively. Both teams are rested for this game so I don't see fatigue slowing down this pace in the least. This Cavs team is now fully in Irving's hands and I expect him to come motivated to play a great game. With Tristan Thompson getting more time in the paint, I think the Cavs future is now. I have this game set at 205 giving those who locked this game up at 199 last night a full 6 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Heat (+2) 1x (Locked)

These teams are so evenly matched that I have to roll with the points in this one. The statistical similarity on offense is striking, with both Miami and OKC ranking in the top 5 of OEFF, TS%, Floor %, EFG%, etc. just to name a few. As far as talent levels, these teams are also very similar when you consider they are ranked #1 and #2 in both efficiency differential and PER ratings (which are generally a solid way to "quantify" a "qualitative" factor such as "talent"). However, the true advantage in this game is on the defensive end of the court in turnovers where Miami's #3 rated defense in TOV% will look to pick-pocket OKC's #30 (last in the league) rated TOV% on offense. OKC's turnovers should be the key to a Miami cover/win today as this presents a true mismatch that OKC cannot answer. In addition, even though OKC has improved on defense to a DEFF ranking of #12, Miami has a DEFF #3 in the league and generally has the advantage in most defensive statistical categories (although OKC has a better DEFG% and O3P%). I have this get set at a PK giving us a full fg of value. If you look at the results from last year, OKC beat Miami in Miami as a 6 point dog and Miami won in OKC as a 1 point dog. I would not be surprised to see the same result in the home/away series for this season and I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

76'ers (+3) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**mikea33** · 03-25-12, 06:16 PM

is the card final?

**pacocn** · 03-25-12, 06:18 PM

Like em lta lets get em.

**PR9** · 03-25-12, 06:19 PM

Anyone like Boston 2nd H under 94 ? Boston with a huge lead at the half and usually slow it down in such circumstances

They also play tomorrow night and may rest people slowing it down.. sometimes reserves can come in and light it up though if its a careless wide open game

**Love The Action** · 03-25-12, 06:23 PM

Guys, dont even bother responding to the shimein troll. You cant fix the perpetually stupid and this is the same guy who will be kissing our ass on our next run just like he did a few weeks ago. The guy is just looking to get rich quick because he is a long term loser. The educated know the truth and the perpetually stupid like this troll will never know what it is like to be a long term winner. Good luck and enjoy the rest of your sunday with your families.