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  • ph0208
    SBR Rookie
    • 03-06-12
    • 44

    #8506
    Cavs shot 39% we never stood a chance
    Comment
    • Dtown13
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-17-11
      • 305

      #8507
      Oh well, gotta find something to make up for this one. I might hedge the Heat as well. Not liking it either.
      Comment
      • alamo
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-21-09
        • 7131

        #8508
        Originally posted by Love The Action
        To help improve your knowledge of this business. This sheds some true light on how lines are set in the "new world" of sports investing. Enjoy!

        http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

        Just watched this LTA. Very very interesting documentary. Thanks for posting it.
        Comment
        • true blue 26
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-07-11
          • 180

          #8509
          jesus picks been just complete garbage lately
          Comment
          • TH
            SBR Rookie
            • 02-07-12
            • 5

            #8510
            Originally posted by true blue 26
            jesus picks been just complete garbage lately
            Agree. And this was a 2.5x play???? Seems to me like he's chasing his recent losses...
            Last edited by TH; 03-25-12, 05:34 PM.
            Comment
            • alamo
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-21-09
              • 7131

              #8511
              Originally posted by TH
              Agree. And this was a 2.5x play???? Seems to me like chasing losses...
              Chasing losses ???

              I think your in the wrong thread. LTA is up over 10x this year.
              Comment
              • shimeon40
                SBR MVP
                • 03-15-12
                • 2319

                #8512
                Over analysis...and still coming up with the wrong play..trying to turn it into rocket science.
                Comment
                • chief42
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-06-10
                  • 315

                  #8513
                  Man I hear is complaining coming outta this thread. LTA is a winner guys, not everyday, not today, but long term. This is a marathon, not a sprint, stick with the ebbs and flows everything will work out fine and we will come out on top. Just stop complaining every time when we lose. This guy has a family and works long hours at his job and he takes what little free time he has to offer his insight so that we may make some extra cash. Appreciate what you have before it is gone.
                  Comment
                  • shimeon40
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-15-12
                    • 2319

                    #8514
                    Well the way he is going currently alamo he will be giving that back and more...he should be faded at present.
                    Comment
                    • dlunc3
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-31-09
                      • 9129

                      #8515
                      Originally posted by ph0208
                      Cavs shot 39% we never stood a chance

                      With 3:30 left in the 3rd, believe it or not the game was on pace for 209.... It was a complete collapse.
                      Comment
                      • TC Woods
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-17-11
                        • 1780

                        #8516
                        Originally posted by shimeon40
                        Well the way he is going currently alamo he will be giving that back and more...he should be faded at present.
                        And you should get the fuk out of here hose bag. Go ahead and fade and keep your BS comments to yourself.

                        POS!
                        Comment
                        • CheeseHead
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-03-10
                          • 439

                          #8517
                          Look at the amount of total posts these guys have that are complaining..they don't talk unless it's a complaint about a loss. Pretty sure LTA is not at all concerned with it so you guys don't need to be wasting your time arguing with those people.. we'll get back those losses.
                          Comment
                          • shimeon40
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-15-12
                            • 2319

                            #8518
                            yeah yeah you lta clowns..your all in his canoe paddling up shit creek with him..mindless cretans.
                            Comment
                            • mikea33
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-14-11
                              • 2149

                              #8519
                              Then why do u hover around the thread kid
                              Comment
                              • RAVENSFAN
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-17-10
                                • 891

                                #8520
                                23, and 5 posts LOL. Keep rollin LTA. Real knows real! Cavs let us down and nothin we can do about that. On to the next one!
                                Comment
                                • Redscot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-16-11
                                  • 2571

                                  #8521
                                  Originally posted by shimeon40
                                  yeah yeah you lta clowns..your all in his canoe paddling up shit creek with him..mindless cretans.
                                  You hit the nail on the head, oh wait, is that your reflection in the mirror . This game is long term.....fly by night cats crash and burn on the regular. I lost real money today, just like you. LTA probably has a bigger unit size than the both of us so he took his hit too. Simple solution if you really think he is clueless is fade him, best of luck there...long term not a winning proposition. If not, cap your games and open a thread......it's a man's world and nobody wants to here grown men bitching and whining.


                                  Comment
                                  • Les_Nuts
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-01-12
                                    • 931

                                    #8522
                                    LTA can't control Antwan Jamison and the rest of the Cavs who destroyed us shooting 39%. I'm guessing those complaining lost 70% of their bankroll on this play because LTA played it for 2.5units - blame your poor bankroll management instead. -2.5 units hurts but if you have been following you will still be up 10 units and we know that we will be up more come the finals. GL if you decide to play any remaining leans LTA, will look out for them, ignore the haters and thanks for the hard work
                                    Comment
                                    • mikea33
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-14-11
                                      • 2149

                                      #8523
                                      Guys Cavs played atrocious at home in a winnable game. Cant cap that stuff Cavs couldnt catch passes to make easy layups. Win some lose some we can still have a good night
                                      Comment
                                      • bmurphy003
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 01-24-12
                                        • 17

                                        #8524
                                        Anyone else having thoughts on this Philly +3? I know they've played poor lately but the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on a day of rest and the Spurs are 0-3-1 in their last 4 on 0 days rest. plus with the spurs injuries seems like a no brainer to me? Wanted to know what everyone else was thinking
                                        Comment
                                        • dlunc3
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 10-31-09
                                          • 9129

                                          #8525
                                          Originally posted by bmurphy003
                                          Anyone else having thoughts on this Philly +3? I know they've played poor lately but the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on a day of rest and the Spurs are 0-3-1 in their last 4 on 0 days rest. plus with the spurs injuries seems like a no brainer to me? Wanted to know what everyone else was thinking
                                          on em...bol
                                          Comment
                                          • mikea33
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-14-11
                                            • 2149

                                            #8526
                                            Im waiting to see of LTA lcks em up.
                                            He said he had a STRONG lean towards them
                                            Memphis minnesota and utah
                                            Comment
                                            • shimeon40
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-15-12
                                              • 2319

                                              #8527
                                              Redscot..a most sensible post
                                              Comment
                                              • bmur714
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 02-10-12
                                                • 189

                                                #8528
                                                Originally posted by Redscot
                                                You hit the nail on the head, oh wait, is that your reflection in the mirror . This game is long term.....fly by night cats crash and burn on the regular. I lost real money today, just like you. LTA probably has a bigger unit size than the both of us so he took his hit too. Simple solution if you really think he is clueless is fade him, best of luck there...long term not a winning proposition. If not, cap your games and open a thread......it's a man's world and nobody wants to here grown men bitching and whining.


                                                Well said Red! I have much respect for LTA and all these usless trolls who give no contribution to this thread should GTFO!!!

                                                Nobody is paying for his picks and its not like he goes and makes a 20x lock of the century thread either. He is one of the most disciplined cappers on here. Look at his documented history and still go call him a loser.

                                                So if you don't like his picks go tail someone else or cap your own games and start a thread of your own. Stop adding useless noise that nobody cares about! jeezus
                                                Comment
                                                • SeverusSousa
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 04-16-11
                                                  • 20

                                                  #8529
                                                  I don't know if you guys are putting me in the same bag as shimeon, but i meant no disrepect. LTA always says to stay positive during games and i had a good feeling about that 4th quarter.

                                                  Love the Action is a great capper, a class act whether he wins or loses.And for me, he is also a role model. I've learned so much from him about bank management ,EV+ plays , etc. that just posting a "thank you" wouldnt be enough . Even though i dont post much, i love reading his analysis and look at this thread everyday.

                                                  Keep up the good work LTA. Greetings from Portugal.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • shimeon40
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-15-12
                                                    • 2319

                                                    #8530
                                                    yes..your in the same boat severus sousa..welcome aboard
                                                    Comment
                                                    • apurvaas
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-09-12
                                                      • 586

                                                      #8531
                                                      Andre Iguodala-G : Iguodala is a late scratch (knee) Sunday vs. Spurs. bit.ly/H860vv
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mikea33
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-14-11
                                                        • 2149

                                                        #8532
                                                        wow great piece of info i was about to lock philly up.

                                                        Thanks
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Love The Action
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-08-10
                                                          • 10952

                                                          #8533
                                                          Im playing philly +3 (locked)....i will try to get my usual post up soon. GL
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mikea33
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-14-11
                                                            • 2149

                                                            #8534
                                                            what else will you be playing tonight? if anything? it went off the board for me, hopefully I can get a halftime line.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JM92
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-27-12
                                                              • 1140

                                                              #8535
                                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                              Im playing philly +3 (locked)....i will try to get my usual post up soon. GL
                                                              Even without Iggy? I got 3.5 but wasnt able to bouht out or I would have done so.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #8536
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/25/2012

                                                                Play #1

                                                                Suns/Cavaliers over (199) 2.5x (Locked)

                                                                This is the game I mentioned earlier and my local just opened up at 199. I have this game set at 205, giving us 6 full points of value in this matchup. Out to eat right now but I will try to get a writeup posted tomorrow. I may add to this after ref assignments are released but for now I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

                                                                I am not adding to this play because the ref assignments are not favorable for an over play. In addition, this game is now at 202.5 at Pinny so a lot of the value is gone. Consequently, I will stick with a 2.5x play on the over. This is a play I identified early as the extreme value became evident as soon as I ran this matchup through my model. In addition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the over today making this a very solid over play. These teams played under a 196.5 total in late January and yet this game opened at 199.5 telling me the books also expect a higher scoring game. Since that late January game, both offenses have improved whereby the Suns are playing at a much faster PACE which is more conducive to their traditional style of play. Both teams are now ranked in the top 10 of PACE and are top 1/3 in possession per game. I expect a fast-paced game today which highlights a point guard battle between Irving and Nash. Neither team is a defensive force and both are ranked in the bottom 10 of DEFF. In addition, Cleveland should be able to get some easy second chance points from offensive rebounds and extra scoring chances where the Cavs rank #5 and #10 respectively. Both teams are rested for this game so I don't see fatigue slowing down this pace in the least. This Cavs team is now fully in Irving's hands and I expect him to come motivated to play a great game. With Tristan Thompson getting more time in the paint, I think the Cavs future is now. I have this game set at 205 giving those who locked this game up at 199 last night a full 6 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

                                                                Play #2

                                                                Heat (+2) 1x (Locked)

                                                                These teams are so evenly matched that I have to roll with the points in this one. The statistical similarity on offense is striking, with both Miami and OKC ranking in the top 5 of OEFF, TS%, Floor %, EFG%, etc. just to name a few. As far as talent levels, these teams are also very similar when you consider they are ranked #1 and #2 in both efficiency differential and PER ratings (which are generally a solid way to "quantify" a "qualitative" factor such as "talent"). However, the true advantage in this game is on the defensive end of the court in turnovers where Miami's #3 rated defense in TOV% will look to pick-pocket OKC's #30 (last in the league) rated TOV% on offense. OKC's turnovers should be the key to a Miami cover/win today as this presents a true mismatch that OKC cannot answer. In addition, even though OKC has improved on defense to a DEFF ranking of #12, Miami has a DEFF #3 in the league and generally has the advantage in most defensive statistical categories (although OKC has a better DEFG% and O3P%). I have this get set at a PK giving us a full fg of value. If you look at the results from last year, OKC beat Miami in Miami as a 6 point dog and Miami won in OKC as a 1 point dog. I would not be surprised to see the same result in the home/away series for this season and I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.

                                                                Play #3

                                                                76'ers (+3) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Good luck.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mikea33
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-14-11
                                                                  • 2149

                                                                  #8537
                                                                  is the card final?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pacocn
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 07-05-10
                                                                    • 12934

                                                                    #8538
                                                                    Like em lta lets get em.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • PR9
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-30-11
                                                                      • 2813

                                                                      #8539
                                                                      Anyone like Boston 2nd H under 94 ? Boston with a huge lead at the half and usually slow it down in such circumstances


                                                                      They also play tomorrow night and may rest people slowing it down.. sometimes reserves can come in and light it up though if its a careless wide open game
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #8540
                                                                        Guys, dont even bother responding to the shimein troll. You cant fix the perpetually stupid and this is the same guy who will be kissing our ass on our next run just like he did a few weeks ago. The guy is just looking to get rich quick because he is a long term loser. The educated know the truth and the perpetually stupid like this troll will never know what it is like to be a long term winner. Good luck and enjoy the rest of your sunday with your families.
                                                                        Comment
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