LTA's NBA Plays

[yankeekansan]

Play #6

76'ers/Bulls under (185.5) 1x (Locked)

I got burned getting greedy with this one waiting for the key total number of 187. However, it never materialized and the steam hit dropping it from 186.5. Regardless, I still love the under in this spot in this matchup. After last night's disaster against Portland, both Thibs and Noah were furious about the Bulls defensive effort. I suspect that the Bulls bounce-back with a strong defensive effort. Generally, I would also look to back the Bulls in a spot like this. However, with Rose out, this sets up perfectly for a game under/Philly cover. In the previous two matchups, my model showed value in a total at the 181 range. We split those first two games as they were on pace to hit the under a few weeks ago, but a 59 point fourth quarter blew our under by 5 points. I don't see that happening this time, plus we are getting an extra 4 points of value. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us over 5 full points of value. The refs are generally favorable to the under, these are two of the best defensive teams according to the advanced stats and both rank in the bottom 10 in PACE. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Now this is a St. Patrick's Day card! Thanks for the all of the perspective and insight LTA... also a little late to the party, but found these active lines (reduced juice) on 5dimes.com

CLT +2
76ers/Bulls UNDER 185
Pacers -4.5
76ers +5
Spurs/Mavs UNDER 196
Jazz -8
(1X each)
Happy St. Patrick's Day guys! Drink a green beer for LTA!

And just for fun... I was able to conjure up this parlay last night in hopes of LTA's approval...

(2X)

Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/17/12 7:05pm NBA Basketball 504 Charlotte Bobcats +3½ -140* <small style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">vs</small> Toronto Raptors
				Pending	3/17/12 8:05pm NBA Basketball 507 Philadelphia 76ers/Chicago Bulls Under 186½ -130*
				Pending	3/17/12 9:05pm NBA Basketball 516 Utah Jazz -6 -140* <small style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">vs</small> Golden State Warriors

Let's get some + activity on this Happy happy St. Paddy's Day!

[Les_Nuts]

Rotoworld still has Harrington as day-to-day but Paul Pierce is highly questionable with a sprained ankle

[meader99]

I believe it is 8-3. The only game I'm not sure of is Utah played in Dallas on 3/3 and lost by 6. I can't find the closing number for that game, but I have to assume that since it was in Dallas the Mavs were probably favored by more than 6. If not, then the record is 9-2. Here is the recent trend.....
Bulls vs Portland 3/12 win

Orl vs SA 3/14 win

Lakers vs. Detroit 3/6 win

Utah vs Dallas 3/3 loss

Orlando vs Atl 2/10 win

Mil vs Detroit

Sorry I got cut off here.......Mil vs Det 2/1 was a win

Mil vs Atl 1/23 win

on 1/14 the Clips beat the Lakers after beating the Heat resulting in a loss in this system.

Thanks for the clarification Les......It appears that the record is then 8-3 with wins in 6 of the last 7.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jazz (-8) 1x (Locked)

I'm a bit late to the party with this one as I should have paid the -120 for -7 earlier this morning, but I had not fully capped the game yet and I don't make any play without going through my full process. However, I don't think the spread should matter in this game. Utah has significant advantages in the paint and should end up running away with this game. This is especially true when you consider the situational advantage of Utah as GS is playing on a 3 in 4/b2b in the thin air. When you consider the depth of Utah, Utah's statistical advantage in multiple advanced offensive and defensive categories, the Warrior's thin bench, Utah's revenge angle and the effect of fatigue on the Warriors, I think this is a must-play and I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

76'ers/Bulls under (185.5) 1x (Locked)

I got burned getting greedy with this one waiting for the key total number of 187. However, it never materialized and the steam hit dropping it from 186.5. Regardless, I still love the under in this spot in this matchup. After last night's disaster against Portland, both Thibs and Noah were furious about the Bulls defensive effort. I suspect that the Bulls bounce-back with a strong defensive effort. Generally, I would also look to back the Bulls in a spot like this. However, with Rose out, this sets up perfectly for a game under/Philly cover. In the previous two matchups, my model showed value in a total at the 181 range. We split those first two games as they were on pace to hit the under a few weeks ago, but a 59 point fourth quarter blew our under by 5 points. I don't see that happening this time, plus we are getting an extra 4 points of value. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us over 5 full points of value. The refs are generally favorable to the under, these are two of the best defensive teams according to the advanced stats and both rank in the bottom 10 in PACE. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Knicks/Pacers under (200) 1x (Locked)

This was the number I was waiting for, so I am going to jump on it now because I don't think it gets to 201 and I expect sharp money to drive it back down to the 198 range. I expect a Pacers win predicated on defense so just like in the Sixers/Bulls game, I think we have correlated plays here. Despite the recent defensive slump, the Knicks remain top ten in DEFF. When you look at the Pacers superior defensive ranking, I think they look to keep the pace slow and win a defensive battle. Now that Woodson has taken the helm, we can expect more emphasis on defense and isolation sets. Just like the Spurs, the Knicks have shot at or near 50% from the field and from behind the arc in their last two games. Because they are going against a motivated and statistically superior Pacers defense, I expect those numbers to regress down to their season averages. It's just too hard in the NBA with fatigue and defensive adjustments, to continue to shoot at such an abnormally high rate more than a couple games in a row. These teams are a combined 10-16 O/U on no rest such as tonight and both average around 190 points in such spots. In addition, as someone dmitean alluded to earlier, in the NBA you need to consider the "zig-zag" effect in these home/away b2b matchups. Generally, you will see teams play the opposite in such b2b spots. This is especially true in the playoffs and I recommend everyone familiarize themselves by reading up on the "zig-zag" NBA trend. In addition to these factors, the refs are also highly favorable to the under and my model shows value in this game (which is why I leaned to the under yesterday). The refs are Blair, Kirkland and Phillips, all of whom are having huge "under" seasons so far. I generally look to the refs lifetiem o/u records and average foul stats, but in this case we have all 3 refs having disparate under seasons and there's no reason not to ride that trend. In addition, my model has this matchup set at 196.5 which provides us with almost 4 points of value at 200. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[meader99]

Holy balls of fire!!!!!! Guy takes a day off and comes back locked and loaded trying to kill "the man."

[r1kkie]

Huge card! Best of luck!

[TC Woods]

Wow.... huge card. Appreciate your efforts LTA...

This post is for anyone that feels like helping an amateur...

If you were going to prioritize this list of 7 games into a list of projected winners, what would that be? Hope this makes sense. I'm looking to bet on 3 or 4...

Thanks in advance

[Love The Action]

Both my locals just pulled the Boston/Denver game off the board. Hmmm....

[Love The Action]

Wow.... huge card. Appreciate your efforts LTA...

This post is for anyone that feels like helping an amateur...

If you were going to prioritize this list of 7 games into a list of projected winners, what would that be? Hope this makes sense. I'm looking to bet on 3 or 4...

Thanks in advance

They are all rated the same. You need to play every game you think you have an edge. Sometimes I don't feel I have an edge and I pass, other times I will play one or two games and on rare occasions I might have a 7-8 play card if I feel I have the edge. Remember, it's not about too many plays on one day, it's about limiting yourself to +ev plays throughout the course of the season and not making plays for "action." I feel have as though I have a large edge in each of those games and might add to the stake in a few of them depending on the line -- in addition I may have one more play depending on injuries, line moves, etc. -- now it's up to you decide which one's give you the edge on the current numbers. Good luck.

[dmitean]

Love the Under in Indy for the reasons you mentioned and great write up. I can only add that Indy should react with pride to such a heavy beating and usually teams react first of all on defense. I would be surprised to see Knicks top 95 points here, so as long as Indiana doesn't score 105+ points, the bet should be a winner.
Good luck!

[Les_Nuts]

Interesting how Denver has gone from -7 at -110 to -6.5 in a few books, wonder if this has anything to do with Harrington or Pierce

[remypom]

U like bulls under again? Last time it went over!!

[XGamer]

Missed a lot of great lines. F*ck

[Love The Action]

Interesting how Denver has gone from -7 at -110 to -6.5 in a few books, wonder if this has anything to do with Harrington or Pierce

According to Sports Insights, Pierce is probable. I actually prefer that he play so that we don't have to deal with the "missing star effect." Think I might just buy it down to -6 and finalize my card. Denver is my remaining lean.

[Love The Action]

U like bulls under again? Last time it went over!!

So what? Does that mean it's going to go over again? No. Remember, these teams had to score 59 points in the 4th quarter of that game to push the total over by a mere 5 points. We should have won that game and I full expect to cash this under tonight. GL.

[Les_Nuts]

According to Sports Insights, Pierce is probable. I actually prefer that he play so that we don't have to deal with the "missing star effect." Think I might just buy it down to -6 and finalize my card. Denver is my remaining lean.

I agree, with this knock and on B2B in altitude he will not be in the best condition if he dresses anyway. I love Denver here, great spot and I think I will take the -6.5

[Love The Action]

Why did Twitter delete all the NBA Beat Writer public lists? I used to follow the public lists like the davidgonos, evanescent, fantasytips, etc., but now when I google those links and click on them it says the pages do not exist. That was a great tool because it compiled all NBA beat writer tweets into one place. WTF....

[Love The Action]

Got a bad number with the Jazz....didn't think it would come back down to -7.5. Regardless, I think this is a Utah blowout and the spread won't be a factor. After all the times we have been burned by Utah this season, they owe us one....

[Les_Nuts]

Got a bad number with the Jazz....didn't think it would come back down to -7.5. Regardless, I think this is a Utah blowout and the spread won't be a factor. After all the times we have been burned by Utah this season, they owe us one....

I have confidence in Utah tonight. Who can contain Jefferson in the paint? Still very comfortable with -8, if it goes to -7 then that would be a bit annoying but I think it goes back up soon

[Vasco]

I have confidence in Utah tonight. Who can contain Jefferson in the paint? Still very comfortable with -8, if it goes to -7 then that would be a bit annoying but I think it goes back up soon

Jefferson is out, but I still like the Jazz -8.

[absolutkaos]

Why did Twitter delete all the NBA Beat Writer public lists? I used to follow the public lists like the davidgonos, evanescent, fantasytips, etc., but now when I google those links and click on them it says the pages do not exist. That was a great tool because it compiled all NBA beat writer tweets into one place. WTF....

https://twitter.com/#!/Evanescent88/nba-beat-writers

https://twitter.com/#!/davidgonos/nba-beat-writers

still working for me bud.

[Les_Nuts]

Jefferson is out, but I still like the Jazz -8.

Just seen that, his absence is a blow but maybe it will trigger the missing star effect LTA referred to, especially since he is missing for personal reasons

[Love The Action]

Just seen that, his absence is a blow but maybe it will trigger the missing star effect LTA referred to, especially since he is missing for personal reasons

His absence has already been figured into the opening number because it's been known since Thursday that he was going to miss this game. In addition, I have confidence in Favors tonight against a depleted Warriors front court and team in general.

[Love The Action]

https://twitter.com/#!/Evanescent88/nba-beat-writers

https://twitter.com/#!/davidgonos/nba-beat-writers

still working for me bud.

I think it's something to do with the link from google then...not sure. Your link worked but when I google it the link takes me to a dead twitter page. Weird...thanks for posting the links.

[Catchn_Picks]

No value in yesterday's card...7 plays of value so far before noon today.

Are you Irish, LTA?



BOL to all.

[Love The Action]

No value in yesterday's card...7 plays of value so far before noon today.

Are you Irish, LTA?



BOL to all.

Nope...but everyone's Irish on St. Patty's day

[Les_Nuts]

I'm feeling great about all 7 plays today and also Denver if you decide to add them. Thanks for your insight LTA and GL

[Catchn_Picks]

Nope...but everyone's Irish on St. Patty's day

[mikea33]

LTA we are gnna get em all back today

[fitguy67]

TC,

You might consider taking the whole slate of 7 (each played at 4/7th of your usual bet-size), rather than your "short slate" of say 4 at your usual bet-size...

the result is the same total $-amount risked and...the same eV as if you played your short-list at full pop but with considerably lower variance (cuz u'll be avoiding "the luck of the draw" in selecting your short-slate)...

[PS3]

Nope...but everyone's Irish on St. Patty's day

[wguan2]

Al Jefferson (personal) will not play on Saturday or Sunday.

This has been reported for a few days now; we simply wanted to remind owners to get him out of active lineups. Derrick Favors is slated to start at center vs. the new-look Warriors on Sunday.

via rotoworld.

does this affect your play lta?

edit: shit sorry. skipped a few posts and just read it after i put this up here. don't mean to clutter your through. just trying to provide info. good luck today!

[Love The Action]

Guys...I think we may need to add to the Charlotte play. The Raptors just left Memphis to fly to Charlotte because their plane ended up not flying out last night after the Grizz game because of mechanical issues. You have to think this will affect Toronto negatively....

http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/

Seems there was a bit of a mechanical issue with their plane late Friday night getting out of Memphis, they had to check back into their hotel there and didn’t get out until after noon, or weren’t supposed to because as I type this, they’re still back there and I’m catching a bit of the St. Patrick’s Day parade in Charlotte out of my hotel window.

(Had to get dropped off a couple of blocks from the hotel because the road was closed and was forced to cut across the parade route to get here. Felt a Ferris Bueller Moment)
Anyway, it’s the first big plane messup I can recall with these guys; they’ve been delays before but I don’t remember a plane issue keeping them back. They did get an extra night in Indianapolis a year or so ago because of weather but never mechanical issues.
Just heard everyone’s cool but they aren’t likely to get to Charlotte until about 3 p.m. local time and that’s a really short turnaround for a 7 p.m. game.
Could be another wild night ahead of us.

[pokerwhiz90]

lta how come your not playing the nuggets? boston is weary on the road, and now they have to go up against javale mcgee - which means no post presence for boston

[Love The Action]

lta how come your not playing the nuggets? boston is weary on the road, and now they have to go up against javale mcgee - which means no post presence for boston

I might.

Just waiting to see if I can get -6.5 again....this was a post from earlier:

According to Sports Insights, Pierce is probable. I actually prefer that he play so that we don't have to deal with the "missing star effect." Think I might just buy it down to -6 and finalize my card. Denver is my remaining lean.

GL