LTA's NBA Plays

[Pivotpoint]

Number just dropped to Bulls - 8 1/2 . I'll bite, 2x. Tough to back troubled Blazer team on the road with $'s. Bulls playing at a different level.

Heat looking great laying - 3 1/2.

[absolutkaos]

GL to all in the early games!

Onto the late games....has anyone heard if Ellis is playing tonight for Milwaukee? If he's in, it might be a good worth a play at -1.5 against his old team in his homecoming game. The crowd will likely show him some support, and it might even be worth a look at the O @ 208.5...it's a high total, but adding Ellis to the Milwaukee front court with Jennings is going to be like watching two waterbugs flying around the court. Thoughts?

[MrXYZ]

Ellis is a confirmed starter tonight, according to the Bucks official twitter feed.

[absolutkaos]

Ellis is a confirmed starter tonight, according to the Bucks official twitter feed.

thanks MrXYZ....I'll be getting on the Bucks @ -1.5 for a 1x play... GL all

[Love The Action]

Busy work day...only had leans on indy and indy/nyk under, but passed on both. Passing on rest of card as there are too many trade aftermath variables. Good luck to all.

[bmur714]

Busy work day...only had leans on indy and indy/nyk under, but passed on both. Passing on rest of card as there are too many trade aftermath variables. Good luck to all.

Thank you for all the hard work you do and for taking the time out of your busy day to post here on SBR. Your experience and discipline has taught me lessons that will benefit me for the long haul.

[meader99]

Interesting trend to look for. It appears that after a team beats the Heat, they lose their next game ATS quite frequently.

[Dexter]

Interesting trend to look for. It appears that after a team beats the Heat, they lose their next game ATS quite frequently.

do you have that exact ATS record?

[absolutkaos]

On both the plays with you... miami my biggest of the night--hopefully they dont let up. They are a tough matchup for philly.. Philly at least a minimal chance against anyone in the east but them this yr imo... just dont matchup at all with them (watch philly comeback and win this now haha).

On port as well... Rose is confirmed out for tonight..

BOL

Good wins tonight dlunc3!

[MrXYZ]

Dodged a bullet with those Indy leans LTA, great discipline to pass on a big card. Good luck tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

Thank you for all the hard work you do and for taking the time out of your busy day to post here on SBR. Your experience and discipline has taught me lessons that will benefit me for the long haul.

Very humbling and one of my main goals for posting on SBR...thanks for seeing the big picture!

[Love The Action]

do you have that exact ATS record?

Look at this guy....always data mining for a new system. Always working....that's why he's the best "system" guy on, not only the board, but all of the betting sites from what I can tell. Dex is one of the few consistent winners out there.

[Love The Action]

Dodged a bullet with those Indy leans LTA, great discipline to pass on a big card. Good luck tomorrow.

Late lean was Spurs and the Spurs/OKCover...would've split those four games but would've also split my head if I actually bet that Indy/NYK under. Wow, almost 140 points in the 2h

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/16/2012

0 - 0 = 0x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

102 - 87 = +13.25x

No plays yesterday, but we will be back with a vengeance today with possibly the biggest card of the season as there are numerous great value and situational plays worth making on today's card. Now its just a matter of getting the numbers I am looking to lock up. I am rested, relaxed and ready to take on the books. Good luck!

[dmitean]

I like this card as well. Hope our thoughts will be similar

[remypom]

Thas what I'm talking about lta lock and load baby

[unitedlad]

Happy St. Paddy's Day everyone. Unfortunately I think I'm going to miss all the plays today Pints of Guinness are calling my name. BOL to everyone, hope today is the day were variance shows it's beautiful side. Let's clean up!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[dmitean]

One of the main rules in NBA betting is when two teams play B2B, take the losing team in the first game, to win the second game.
I think it should be an easy win. Good luck!

[dmitean]

Haywood's absence is huge for Dallas as far as defense goes. They are 4 - 2 in favor of the Over without him and on 4 Over results straight. I agree that 197.5 is a bit too high, but not enough for me to play it. Spurs also has much higher scores on the road than at home. Agree with the logic, but staying away.
Hope you nail it!

P.S. also wondering how Spurs will play with Jax. Should be great upgrade for them on both ends of the floor.

[Vasco]

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Like the plays so far LTA. I liked Indy yesterday too, you have to figure they will be out for blood after that embarrassment. Any lean on the Jazz/Warriors total? I kinda like over 202 in that one. I think the Jazz will put up well over 100, it's just a matter of Golden State being able to keep up.

[M.W.]

With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs.

Mavs certainly played at a slow pace on Thursday. Charlotte had just 20 possessions in the 2Q. Unfortunately they scored on 15 of them, but we will see more defensive intensity here, and you are probably right about the pace. Good luck.

[dmitean]

Very interesting the fact that Spurs in B2B spots, are 4U - 1O when they cover ATS and 3O - 2U whey they not.
Another interesting fact that exactly 365 days ago, teams played in Dallas and the total was 200 and Spurs were 2 points dogs (similar both total and line) and Spurs won 97 - 91.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Haywood's absence is huge for Dallas as far as defense goes. They are 4 - 2 in favor of the Over without him and on 4 Over results straight. I agree that 197.5 is a bit too high, but not enough for me to play it. Spurs also has much higher scores on the road than at home. Agree with the logic, but staying away.
Hope you nail it!

P.S. also wondering how Spurs will play with Jax. Should be great upgrade for them on both ends of the floor.

I agree 100% about Haywood, which almost kept me off this play. However, I just couldn't pass up the value as I believe this is one of the most distorted lines today due to public perception. The Spurs have shot 50% or better from the field AND from beyond the arc two games in a row and are due for a regression against a solid defense. After a big win yesterday where their older starters played heavy minutes, combined with a rested Dallas defense (albeit without Haywood), is a nice spot for sneaky under especially when you consider that this matchup should not be set in the high 190's. We are easily getting 4-5 point of value because of the recent high scoring by the Spurs and the fact that Dallas has hit 4 overs in a row. The books know the public eats that stuff up. There's just too much value to pass up up IMHO. Good luck on your plays bud!

[Love The Action]

Anyone have any inside scoop to the injury of Denver's Al Harrington?

I have four more very strong leans and possible plays for today depending on the numbers I can get. This could be the biggest card of the season as I feel there are some great value out there, plus some great situational plays. This is definitely going to be a step-out day for me. Good luck.

[dmitean]

Love the Cats play. Took them straight up and hope they do the job. The only worry is that they are 0 - 3 this season ATS as 2 points dogs at home (and I was on them twice from those three games, so obviously they let me down before).
They own Toronto big time and get them in a perfect spot.
Hope we cash in today

[absolutkaos]

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

monster day! let's get out of the slump with a 4-0 day!! Happy St Pattys & BOL all!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jazz (-8) 1x (Locked)

I'm a bit late to the party with this one as I should have paid the -120 for -7 earlier this morning, but I had not fully capped the game yet and I don't make any play without going through my full process. However, I don't think the spread should matter in this game. Utah has significant advantages in the paint and should end up running away with this game. This is especially true when you consider the situational advantage of Utah as GS is playing on a 3 in 4/b2b in the thin air. When you consider the depth of Utah, Utah's statistical advantage in multiple advanced offensive and defensive categories, the Warrior's thin bench, Utah's revenge angle and the effect of fatigue on the Warriors, I think this is a must-play and I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

[PS3]

You like Denver LTA?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-4) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup now as the lines are moving, but will try to give you my thoughts later. Most of the market is at -4.5 but Legends is hanging -4 so I am jumping on it now. After last night's embarrassment, I expect the Pacers to play inspired basketball and Barbosa should add some more scoring off the bench which was not available last night. The Pacers have already sold out for this game and I expect a great atmosphere from the Indy fans. I have this game set at -5 and I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Mavericks under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Spurs are coming off two huge scoring, great shooting performances, but playing against a struggling Dallas team that must win with defense. With the Spurs on a b2b and their core playing heavy minutes against OKC last night, I expect a slower PACE and lock-down defense by the Mavs. I have this game set at 193 and was looking to get 197. As soon as I saw 197.5, I had to jump on it. I will try to get a full writeup posted later. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bobcats (+2) (Locked)

This is a great situational play with value. Toronto is coming off an emotional OT win over Memphis where their starters all saw over 40 minutes. Even though Toronto has revenge, I don't see them motivated for this one. On the other side, Charlotte is always desperate for a win and will be playing at home after resting in their own beds for a night. While Toronto has an advantage statistically on both offense and defense, the disparity is not that far and Charlotte should not be getting 2 points. I have this game set at PK giving us a full FG of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bobcats for 1x.

Play #4

76'ers (+5) 1x (Locked)

These teams are statistically too close for the Sixers to be getting 5-6 points when Rose will not play. If Rose does play, I may buy out but KC Johnson the Bulls beat writer who historically pretty accurate in these types of things says Rose is most likely out. Both teams are on b2b, although Philly had to travel. Nevertheless, the Bulls cannot continue to cover big spreads against upper echelon teams without Rose. I have this game set more around +3 with Rose out, so I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jazz (-8) 1x (Locked)

I'm a bit late to the party with this one as I should have paid the -120 for -7 earlier this morning, but I had not fully capped the game yet and I don't make any play without going through my full process. However, I don't think the spread should matter in this game. Utah has significant advantages in the paint and should end up running away with this game. This is especially true when you consider the situational advantage of Utah as GS is playing on a 3 in 4/b2b in the thin air. When you consider the depth of Utah, Utah's statistical advantage in multiple advanced offensive and defensive categories, the Warrior's thin bench, Utah's revenge angle and the effect of fatigue on the Warriors, I think this is a must-play and I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

76'ers/Bulls under (185.5) 1x (Locked)

I got burned getting greedy with this one waiting for the key total number of 187. However, it never materialized and the steam hit dropping it from 186.5. Regardless, I still love the under in this spot in this matchup. After last night's disaster against Portland, both Thibs and Noah were furious about the Bulls defensive effort. I suspect that the Bulls bounce-back with a strong defensive effort. Generally, I would also look to back the Bulls in a spot like this. However, with Rose out, this sets up perfectly for a game under/Philly cover. In the previous two matchups, my model showed value in a total at the 181 range. We split those first two games as they were on pace to hit the under a few weeks ago, but a 59 point fourth quarter blew our under by 5 points. I don't see that happening this time, plus we are getting an extra 4 points of value. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us over 5 full points of value. The refs are generally favorable to the under, these are two of the best defensive teams according to the advanced stats and both rank in the bottom 10 in PACE. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

You like Denver LTA?

Is Harrington going to play?

[meader99]

do you have that exact ATS record?

I believe it is 8-3. The only game I'm not sure of is Utah played in Dallas on 3/3 and lost by 6. I can't find the closing number for that game, but I have to assume that since it was in Dallas the Mavs were probably favored by more than 6. If not, then the record is 9-2. Here is the recent trend.....
Bulls vs Portland 3/12 win

Orl vs SA 3/14 win

Lakers vs. Detroit 3/6 win

Utah vs Dallas 3/3 loss

Orlando vs Atl 2/10 win

Mil vs Detroit

[Les_Nuts]

I believe it is 8-3. The only game I'm not sure of is Utah played in Dallas on 3/3 and lost by 6. I can't find the closing number for that game, but I have to assume that since it was in Dallas the Mavs were probably favored by more than 6. If not, then the record is 9-2. Here is the recent trend.....
Bulls vs Portland 3/12 win

Orl vs SA 3/14 win

Lakers vs. Detroit 3/6 win

Utah vs Dallas 3/3 loss

Orlando vs Atl 2/10 win

Mil vs Detroit

Spread was Dallas -7.5 in this game