LTA's NBA Plays

**visualrealism** · 03-06-12, 09:10 PM

BOL to you LTA and all your picks.

**chief42** · 03-06-12, 10:14 PM

shut the **** up people, whining about a play doesn't change the outcome. Go do something else productive and stop sweating every ebb and flow of the game.

**NaccAttack** · 03-06-12, 11:02 PM

nice hit on the under!

**alamo** · 03-06-12, 11:05 PM

LTA, Thanks for your initial feedback and then subsequent play on the Knicks under. I was going to play over till I saw what you said. You turned what would have been a -1x into a +1x for me which for all intense purposes was a 2x win for me

**bmur714** · 03-06-12, 11:07 PM

1-1 today -.1 units

that's a blessing compared to LB's loss of 35u with the HOU/BOS game

Thank you LTA

**G-manFan** · 03-06-12, 11:09 PM

Isn't it funny how people get quiet when your pick is looking good the whole way through. One post per hour for the Knicks game, earlier and yesterday people were posting faster than they could think.

Thanks for the plays LTA, truly appreciate what you do!,!,!

**CheeseHead** · 03-06-12, 11:11 PM

It's a long season...we'll take a break-even night. Keep on grindin' LTA, thanks for posting your plays.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-06-12, 11:15 PM

That DAL/NYK Under play was very good handicapping. Most cappers are afraid to go under on Knicks games. They are capable of lighting it up. Excellent read.

Ty and BOL.

**ph0208** · 03-06-12, 11:39 PM

Joined up specifically to say thank you LTA with the NYK/DAL. Took an in play -4.5 on the Mavs too. They like to blow their big leads do the Mavs, but you can always rely on Dirk to bring it home in the end.

**ClausensHands** · 03-07-12, 12:16 AM

Who could expect Hawks to shoot that well, especially Smith and his eyes-closed jumper. Wish he had would done some more patented between-the-leg step back jumper/brick but it was strangely absent. Nice job on Dal/Ny.

I hear ya on the Heat, looked/smelled of easy money but nothing wrong at all with 1-1. BOL tmrw.

**talbotia** · 03-07-12, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by bmur714

1-1 today -.1 units

that's a blessing compared to LB's loss of 35u with the HOU/BOS game

Thank you LTA

And by half a point

**SiMON2g** · 03-07-12, 05:59 AM

Alot of the people in this thread expect too much from LTA, just be grateful for his plays. LTA, you're a breathe of fresh air man, respect.

**Love The Action** · 03-07-12, 06:16 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/6/2012

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

94 - 75 = +19.05x

Good luck on Wednesday...

**Love The Action** · 03-07-12, 06:49 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/7/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Sixers under (178) 1x (Locked)

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis points to the under. We have two top defenses, against two jump shooting offenses that are poor offensive rebounding teams, that play a slow half court pace. I have this game set at 174.5 giving us some nice value. Had I been able to get an early opener of 179.5, this would have been a multiple unit play. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x with the possibility of adding to that stake before tip. Good luck.

**yanekk** · 03-07-12, 07:01 AM

Thanks for the pick, I really appreciate your work here. Short question, you mentioned the Overs would become playable iirc, still you mainly take the Under. Just Variance?

**JM92** · 03-07-12, 07:03 AM

Bad luck last night, I actually went 1-2 since I also had the Pacers - 7.0. Ended up getting a little bit back on the Mavs in game but really got mad about those Josh Smith jumpers in the first half.

I would have not liked this under but after the game last night in OT, I think Boston slows it down even more tonight and we have a really slow paced game. So I'm also rolling with that. Thanks for the early play.

GL ALL.

PS: What did I said here about the Pistons? Damn.

**Love The Action** · 03-07-12, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by yanekk

Thanks for the pick, I really appreciate your work here. Short question, you mentioned the Overs would become playable iirc, still you mainly take the Under. Just Variance?

I don't understand the question. I play what has value. Whether it's an over or an under makes no difference to me. In this case, there is value on the Celts/Sixers under. If I thought there was value on the over and the other factors I evaluate also pointed to the over, I would play that. Each game is different.

**NOREGRETS** · 03-07-12, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by NOREGRETS

Thanks LTA!! EVERYONE is on Lakers tonight. I may wait to see what the Pistons line climbs to (possibly 6.0, 6.5 or even 7.0?) and pull the trigger (small) with the Pistons, strictly as a fade play. Tough for me to go against Lakers with Pistons, but that is why I like it even more. Thoughts?

**NOREGRETS** · 03-07-12, 08:08 AM

Thank you LTA, my book is at 177, let's get this.

**pacocn** · 03-07-12, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

I don't think you will have any regrets on this one.

No regrets i hope you played the Pistons yesterday.

**NOREGRETS** · 03-07-12, 08:42 AM

Nope.

**pacocn** · 03-07-12, 09:25 AM

NR, I don't think you will have any regrets if you play
the Hornets +5 tonight. Bol

**Love The Action** · 03-07-12, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/7/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Sixers under (178) 1x (Locked)

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis points to the under. We have two top defenses, against two jump shooting offenses that are poor offensive rebounding teams, that play a slow half court pace. I have this game set at 174.5 giving us some nice value. Had I been able to get an early opener of 179.5, this would have been a multiple unit play. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x with the possibility of adding to that stake before tip. Good luck.

Play #2

Raptors (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a good spot to fade the majority and Im going to play the so-called "sharp" side in this one with the raptors as I think the books are tipping their hand opening houston at -1.5. A few days ago, houston beat toronto by 3 points as 9 5 faves. Standard adjustments should have the raptors as +3.5 dogs, but instead they open at +1.5. I think the books are enticing houston money with this short line. Houston is in a worse fatigue spot and coming off ot, which could explain some of this adjustment but not 2 full points from three days ago when these teams last played. The raptors have the better defense and have been an ats machine lately. I dont think we have a ton of value here, but I think we see a strong defensive effort with the raptors playing at home with revenge and I expect a toronto win. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the raptors for 1x. Good luck.

**PistolPete13** · 03-07-12, 10:43 AM

Posting a play at 10:35 am and people were complaining the other day that you posted too late.
Amazing the entitlement people feel.

Thanks for the research and picks during your work-day LTA.

Many of us TRULY appreciate it.

**groovybrandone** · 03-07-12, 10:45 AM

i'm up early for picks! get'em LTA.

thinking about taking the over on the OKC/PHX game but i have a meeting in a few, so i'll think about it in there

**dmitean** · 03-07-12, 11:08 AM

Love both plays LTA! Took both a bit earlier...

The series between Tor and Hou been very home court dominated and both also strong home teams, so it makes sense. Playing 3rd game in 4 nights and coming off 2 OT's and not one (against Clips they also had an OT) and going from Houston to Boston and from there to Toronto are long jorneys as well.

Love the Under as well, though took it at 179.5 the moment it was released. Barnaky as a ref can't be bad, but fading Boston and taking the Under in games of Boston on the road in B2B spots was just golden this season and with Sixers off a rest and fully focused, I just can't imagine it will be a running game. At least one team shouldn't reach 85 points and niether team will reach 95 points, so should be an Under here. Something like 89 - 80 sounds about right here...

Tons of luck to you!

**jas19illini** · 03-07-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by NOREGRETS

Nope.

Same here. Wish I had.

**dshaffe4** · 03-07-12, 11:37 AM

Yep I was eying that raptors play, my top rated play on the board tonite. LTA what do u think of the MEM/GS total I'm liking the under a lot.

**CHAZ** · 03-07-12, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #2

Raptors (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a good spot to fade the majority and Im going to play the so-called "sharp" side in this one with the raptors as I think the books are tipping their hand opening houston at -1.5. A few days ago, houston beat toronto by 3 points as 9 5 faves. Standard adjustments should have the raptors as +3.5 dogs, but instead they open at +1.5. I think the books are enticing houston money with this short line. Houston is in a worse fatigue spot and coming off ot, which could explain some of this adjustment but not 2 full points from three days ago when these teams last played. The raptors have the better defense and have been an ats machine lately. I dont think we have a ton of value here, but I think we see a strong defensive effort with the raptors playing at home with revenge and I expect a toronto win. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the raptors for 1x. Good luck.

Public all over the Rockets today too (so far anyways). I'm gonna wait alittle bit and see how or if the line moves any.

GL today LTA

**Notorious_Donk** · 03-07-12, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Public all over the Rockets today too (so far anyways). I'm gonna wait alittle bit and see how or if the line moves any.

GL today LTA

I wouldn't say "all over the Rockets". The line has been fluctuating between 1.5 and 2.

**alamo** · 03-07-12, 12:02 PM

Guys to avoid the in game clutter that can occur when a game starts on LTA's thread (I'm as guilty as anyone), Im proposing (if its ok with LTA) to start a separate thread for every game that LTA has a trade on, approx 5/10mins before game time. Personally I enjoy posting some facts about the game (Fouls, stats etc as opposed to the Over is dead, the under is gone etc). Once the thread is created we can post our thoughts be they negative or postive to detour the unnecessary from his thread. At the end of the game we can get back to talking about future games in this thread again.

I wont always be able to do but if it proves successful Im sure others can continue to carry the mantle. I will leave it to LTA to decide if :-
1. It's annoying him that people are posting game thoughts during the game on his thread
and
2. If he would prefer that we create a separate thread where we discuss the ingame thoughts as it plays out.

On behalf of everyone, I want to say thank you to LTA for his amazing work. I wish there were more ways we could pay him back. I have learned so much this year from him. His models are staggeringly accurate.

Regards,
Alamo

**ClausensHands** · 03-07-12, 12:59 PM

Love the picks and analysis. Let's do this.

**PerfectGrape** · 03-07-12, 01:07 PM

During the last 5 games, Boston's average pace was 95.4, tied for 2nd. Philly had an average ORB% of 30 last 5 games, even outrebounded the Bulls. This makes me want to take the over, even though they are 2 top defensive teams usually slow paced. Both teams look like they are on a hot streak lately. Should the trends of last 5 games be considered or lean towards the overall season stats and take the under?

**Pick'nParlays** · 03-07-12, 01:20 PM

bol lta

**Love The Action** · 03-07-12, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/7/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Sixers under (178) 1x (Locked)

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis points to the under. We have two top defenses, against two jump shooting offenses that are poor offensive rebounding teams, that play a slow half court pace. I have this game set at 174.5 giving us some nice value. Had I been able to get an early opener of 179.5, this would have been a multiple unit play. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x with the possibility of adding to that stake before tip. Good luck.

Play #2

Raptors (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a good spot to fade the majority and Im going to play the so-called "sharp" side in this one with the raptors as I think the books are tipping their hand opening houston at -1.5. A few days ago, houston beat toronto by 3 points as 9 5 faves. Standard adjustments should have the raptors as +3.5 dogs, but instead they open at +1.5. I think the books are enticing houston money with this short line. Houston is in a worse fatigue spot and coming off ot, which could explain some of this adjustment but not 2 full points from three days ago when these teams last played. The raptors have the better defense and have been an ats machine lately. I dont think we have a ton of value here, but I think we see a strong defensive effort with the raptors playing at home with revenge and I expect a toronto win. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the raptors for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Trail Blazers/Timberwolves under (195.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect both teams to make defensive adjustments in this game after love exploded and both teams shot so well a few days ago when this matchup sailed over the same total. That game was not played exceedingly fast at a 92 PACE but still went over because of some abnormally high shooting performances. Despite that game going over, the books did not adjust the total for this game in that direction. Both teams are top 12 in DEFF and play solid D. I think they will adjust enough to stop such great shooting performances. In addition, the ref asdignments are favorable to the under with mauer, et.al. I have this game set at 193 giving us two points of value but I also think the books are tipping their hand a bit in this one. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.