LTA's NBA Plays

[NotJoshRay]

Does anybody else want this hilarious Jeremy Lin stuff to continue? I mean, nothing negative, its just really funny. The first quarter has 3 mins left and he has 10 pts and 3 ast. Funniest thing I've ever seen. Good for him.

[jack meoff]

What are you thinking of this over lta?

[alamo]

What are you thinking of this over lta?

Here's my thoughts :-
Miami 1/7
Wash 2/16
from 3pt land.

And yet were only 6/7 pts off the pace. Fck these pricks throwing bricks.

[BrewCrew1]

I got em at 184.5 was hoping for 185.

[jack meoff]

Ha pray for couple ot's

[BrewCrew1]

Took the under

[GChild]

60 point qtr coming

[alamo]

Mario Chalmers, Lebron James, Jordan Crawford, Maurice Evans, Chris Singleton a combined 0/14 from 3pt land

[TC Woods]

Just how bad is Charlotte?

I laid a large sum on a TTU 85 on them... they scored 64

[Donnie Brasco]

What keeps me from pounding chicago every time they play a horrible team -13.5?!?!?!!

[alamo]

2mins to play in Wash. we need 9pts. Lets hope Washington play with a little heart here.

[Donnie Brasco]

Gotta dodge another overtime bullet in orlando

[NotJoshRay]

I counted literally 5 missed layups. Two by Lebron on finger rolls, 2 by wall on idiotic play, and that last one by cole. those things always matter.

[Catchn_Picks]

So close...Washington..you suck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Overtime in Atlanta...grrrrrrr.

[jack meoff]

I had over 196 in a teaser. Cannot believe it lost by 1.

[alamo]

2mins to play in Wash. we need 9pts. Lets hope Washington play with a little heart here.

As i feared, Were at the line 2mins to play and we need 8pts for a push. And what do you know both teams pack it in.

[m11chen]

Effing Hawks... couldn't just close the deal. My full game under may still hold... but not looking good for my 2H add.

[Catchn_Picks]

Please no double overtime.

[Catchn_Picks]

Please no double overtime.

Thank you for mercy.

[PS3]

And we cash in the ATL under!

[m11chen]

Good hit LTA.
I split the bets with full game and 2H. That's the downside of betting the half, less buffer. But feel it was a good play.

[alamo]

Both plays were correct. Washington were a disgrace from 3pt land and the FT line tonight

[Hw101]

I need jazz by 1. To have a winning day

[Speedy88]

Didn't tail you tonight or yesterday. But If my memory serves me right, I believe you have cashed two unders in a row that both went to OT (LA/BOS and now ATL/ORL).

[JM92]

Didn't tail you tonight or yesterday. But If my memory serves me right, I believe you have cashed two unders in a row that both went to OT (LA/BOS and now ATL/ORL).

I advice you to keep that memory, its working just fine!

[Kurtz]

Bovada just moved to Utah +2

[Catchn_Picks]

That makes two under cashes in a row that went into overtime and still went under.

That's good handicapping LTA.

[Speedy88]

Bovada just moved to Utah +2

not a good sign for UTA backers. Perhaps to fool some of the sharps?

[Kurtz]

No. Bodog/Bovada is notorious for moving on public money. It's a nice account to have for playing dogs and unders.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/10/2012

Play #1

Heat/Wizards over (198.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under pretty heavy here at 199.5 all the way at -123 and my local is posting 198.5. I'm going to gamble a little bit here and lock this is now because I expect some over money to hit tomorrow morning. I have this game set at 202.5 and I expect a closer at 200 or more. We have two teams that rank top 10 in PACE and have a nice history of playing fast paced, high scoring games. Miami is a juggernaut, but is playing a 3 in 4, although they are coming off a day of rest. Nevertheless, after losing to Orlando with a mediocre offensive performance, I expect Miami to come out running and looking to really run up the score. However, Washington will be motivated for this game and generally plays the upper echelon teams competitively, only to concede in the end. If you look at some of the scores against other top level and/or big name teams, you will see a correlation with the over: (i) against Orlando 212 points; (ii) against NY 200 and 195; (iii) Houston, Denver, OKC all between 207 and 220 points; (iv) against Boston 194 and 192; etc. It seems that Washington gets a little extra motivated to ramp up their scoring against the better teams, but there defense is so porous that they can't stop anyone and these games end up on the higher scoring side. In this game, I expect Wall to come motivated against the Heat and Wittman wants to play more up-tempo, so I think Wall ends up pushing the pace more and more. I would not be surprised to see the Heat score 110 or more in this one as my model has the Heat at 108.7 and the Wiz at 94.1. However, those numbers are based on the stats alone and when you look at some of the common motivational factors, I think both teams could eclipse those numbers. The Heat might just be fatigued enough to slack a little bit on defense so they can really rack up the points on offense. As I mentioned above, I have this game set at 202.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hawks/Magic under (183) 1x (Locked)

I also have a lean to the Hawks in this game, but I'm jumping on the under now as I love this one at 183. You have two teams that know each other very well and will be playing with playoff-like intensity similar to the Lakers/Celts game yesterday. Another similarity is the slow tempo with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in PACE. If you look at the possession numbers, you see that both teams also rank bottom 10 in possessions per game with an offensive effective possession rating which are bottom 1/3 of the league. Both teams are not good on the offensive boards, ranked in the bottom 11 of ORB%, but excel on the defensive rebounding side with a DRB% top 10 in the league. Finally, when you look at the offensive strengths of each team in comparison to the defensive strengths, I see both offensives getting neutralized. Orland depends on the 3 pointer to win, but Atlanta has a respectable perimeter defense from beyond the arc where they only give up about 6 three pointers a game which is 6th in the league, an opponent three point rate also rated 6th and they only allow 34% shooting on the trey. On the other hand, Atlanta has a balanced attack but will have to contend with the #2 team for opponent points in the paint in Orlando who has similarly rated perimeter defense to that of the Hawks. I have this game set at 179 giving us 4 full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz (+1) 1.5x (Locked)

Was hoping to get a better number, but it never materialized. I am jumping on the jazz now in this situational spot that I have been eyeing for days. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #3 for total of 1.5x. Correct units denoted above.

Good luck.

[marty kaan]

Added 0.50x to Play #3 for total of 1.5x. Correct units denoted above.

Good luck.

so.what did u say bout not capping for lin? how u like ya crow?

[m11chen]

I added Utah 2H -0.5, essentially getting them at +4.5 for this game, a 3.5 point cushion by waiting. BOL everyone! I think Utah has a decent chance to pull this one out, as this seems like another Westy ball hog game.

OKC with 6 assists, to 20 from Utah. Big tell right there.

[m11chen]

Sigh, dumb of me to think an overrated team like the Jazz could hang with the Thunder. Deceptive record padded by a home-heavy schedule so far. Thought they'd play hard on ESPN and at home, but they just rolled over and now turning the ball over non-stop.

For those betting this because of the Thunder 4-in-5 fatigue angle, might want to reconsider.

[Speedy88]

Jazz let us down. Jazz have made me a lot of money. Just wasn't their day.