LTA's NBA Plays
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KalibongoRestricted User
- 01-27-12
- 922
#3641Comment -
CHAZSBR MVP
- 12-09-09
- 4978
#3642LTA how do you go about getting the best lines? Grabbing a line before it moves three points like last night takes some skill. Any insight?Comment -
Nyjrkm06SBR Wise Guy
- 01-25-12
- 562
#3645liking okc ml at -130!Comment -
mailman07009SBR Sharp
- 11-11-11
- 265
#3646Hard to ignore Cleveland with the points....Comment -
fitguy67SBR Hall of Famer
- 03-13-11
- 5082
#3647I find this thread fascinating, in a good practical nuts-n-bolts educational way...an ongoing discussion of the "fundamental & technical analysis" issues of the data streams generated by betting lines. In the money-line market it's quite straightforward, but for Totals and Spreads with fairly fixed -110-ish odds things are a bit harder to conceptualize (kind of like how "time zone" conversions can drive you nuts...never quite sure whether to add or subract).
What helps me to keep "line talk" in the Totals market is to think of the "Under" market as the market for "Ceilings"...and the "Over" as the market for "Floors". Think: "under the ceiling"/"over the floor". Given fixed odds at say -110, increasing support for the Under side weighs down on the ceiling as motivated "buyers" must accept worse deals (the discomfort of a lower ceiling) if they want to get into their under play ...Conversely, increasing support on the Over side pushes up on the floor number as motivated buyers must accept worse deals (and the discomfort of a higher floor) if they want to get into a position.
As for the spreads, you can employ the same sort of "comfort" logic to the deficits or surpluses involved. If support for the favorite increases, buyers are willing to accept more discomfort (a larger deficit that must be overcome)...if support for the dog increases we have those buyers having to accept less comfort (a smaller cushion) in order to get into their desired position.
Hope this analogy helps someone else to follow the intriguing "back and forth" about line moves.Comment -
BbobbiSBR High Roller
- 12-29-11
- 181
#3648hey lta what do you think about boston -14? The line looks like it might move in their favor. But Boston has been playing good recently offensively and defensively. While the Cats have been terrible especially on the road. Pierce is also 9 points away from passing Bird in the Celtics all-time scoring list, which should bring in an excited crowd even against the cats.Comment -
JM92SBR MVP
- 01-27-12
- 1140
#3649Im already on Boston and Thunder.
Waitin' for some LTA insight to see if I make another play.Comment -
wolvereenSBR Rookie
- 09-29-09
- 44
#3650Kalibingo, in the long run, you will lose all your money. Not fun either risking 320 to win 20. Stay away!Comment -
Pick'nParlaysSBR MVP
- 02-22-08
- 3134
#3651IMHO....
This thread is hotter than hell but it's a lot harder to follow LTA in NBA. I usually get his play after the Pinny line he got has moved.
Basically, unless I want to sit here all day and blindly wait for LTA to post his play.... I maybe better off thinking for myself for once... NFL has a whole week of movement where as NBA is totally different.
Is there an SBR app? Or some way I can get a heads up when LTA posts his play? I hate checking multiple times. Especially when I have lost by a half point 3 times already this NBA season.Comment -
tonyp0387SBR Wise Guy
- 01-11-10
- 617
#3652If u have a smartphone go to thred tools nd subscribe to thread with instant email notification. Take care and gl.Comment -
Jago2008SBR MVP
- 05-18-11
- 3047
#3654Dear God, what's up with the criticism here? Particularly T-wizzle. This man (LTA) is volunteering his picks, which w/out saying to many people on this forum- has generated some great returns. I just don't understand whether its jealousy, or the fact that this man actually knows what he's doing that makes some sour.
All I know is I haven't been on this forum for a long period of time, so I haven't developed some of the "clout" that SOME people believe they carry, but LTA explains his picks and has the character to post them at no charge for everyone of us to view. If you don't like them great, if you want to criticize picks with your own opinion- ok I understand; but don't attack the guy's character. From what I've learnt he's a good guy, and he doesn't need anyone defending him. But I feel compelled to show some support for LTA, after all besides recognition, he's not being paid for these posts.
Keep this thread rocking bro, which I assume you will, but know there are many people that support you. And no I'm not homosexual.
Good luck today.
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Roto97SBR High Roller
- 01-30-12
- 166
#3655
So I did subscribe to the thread and instant email notification. Not sure if I am overlooking some option, but it only sends me one reply to the thread. And to receiver further notifications it says I have to visit the thread again.
If I am not missing something obvious, that seems to defeat the whole point of subscribing to the thread.Comment -
Les_NutsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-01-12
- 931
#3656any plays today?Comment -
absolutkaosSBR High Roller
- 12-29-11
- 213
#3657i never found the email notifications very useful either... it actually never worked properly for me... and if im reading it correctly, you would get an email everytime a message is posted in the thread by anyone, not only LTA's posts (which would be the ideal situation)....Comment -
CheeseHeadSBR Sharp
- 12-03-10
- 439
#3658i never found the email notifications very useful either... it actually never worked properly for me... and if im reading it correctly, you would get an email everytime a message is posted in the thread by anyone, not only LTA's posts (which would be the ideal situation)....Comment -
absolutkaosSBR High Roller
- 12-29-11
- 213
#3659exactly, i mean we are getting great picks that are hitting over 50% for free.... how can we really ask LTA to do more? if it was simply a forum feature that LTA could turn on in the thread he owns, or that users could select "notifiy me when thread owner posts" that would be HUGE.... lookin forward to tonights picks.... GL allComment -
That GuySBR Wise Guy
- 01-13-12
- 973
#3660No plays today?Comment -
SlickRick1382SBR MVP
- 10-15-11
- 3838
#3661Definitely would be a nice feature for SBR to add...just something where you could get a notification when a certain poster makes any post. Wish LTA had a Twitter at least, I know a lot of guys do that so that's easy to get instant notifications on...but for free you gotta take what you can get I supposeComment -
pacocnSBR Posting Legend
- 07-05-10
- 12934
#3664Roto, thanks, she is a beauty also.Comment -
pacocnSBR Posting Legend
- 07-05-10
- 12934
#3665Lets get back to basketball who else likes the Warriors tonight
at home. Okc overtime last night, late into Oak town, and Warriors
rested.Comment -
Donnie BrascoSBR Wise Guy
- 01-04-11
- 862
#3666Love gsw at homeComment -
dlunc3SBR Hall of Famer
- 10-31-09
- 9129
#3667best bet for the gsw game is the warriors team total over 102Comment -
GChildSBR MVP
- 12-11-10
- 3885
#3669Should we report a missing person??Comment -
That GuySBR Wise Guy
- 01-13-12
- 973
#3670The total for GSW game is at 208... seems a little high. Liked the over at 204 when it opened but now the under looks like could be good value.Comment -
Donnie BrascoSBR Wise Guy
- 01-04-11
- 862
#3671Sure hes fine. After the idiots in this forum took over, cant blame him. Killed the golden goose!Comment -
NYSportsGuy210SBR Posting Legend
- 11-07-09
- 11347
#3672Would I be considered retarded for putting $350 on Oklahoma State ML (-130) tonight?Comment -
dlunc3SBR Hall of Famer
- 10-31-09
- 9129
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Donnie BrascoSBR Wise Guy
- 01-04-11
- 862
#3674Yes, gsw as home dog has performed too well, esp against unrested team.Comment -
Donnie BrascoSBR Wise Guy
- 01-04-11
- 862
#3675Assuming you all mean ok city?Comment
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