LTA's NBA Plays

[Dexter]

you can subscribe to the thread so that everytime someone posts it emails you. I get my emails immediately on my phone, so my phone is buzzing all day with every meaningless post that is made haha its all worth it though when LTA posts a last second gem

there has to be a way to get emails only from the thread owner....

[Donkeys2012]

Stephen Curry is the most overrated player in the NBA. Total POS.

[Love The Action]

Curry and Ellis a combined 3-15 for 8 points. Plus, only 13 total free throw attempts in the first half. Both of those number have to improve in the 2h. If this game begins to move toward the averages, we should see Curry and Ellis get hot and around 25 or so free throw attempts between both teams in the 2h. We need 106 points to cash which is within reach. Perhaps the 2h over would be the best play of any. GL

[Donkeys2012]

Yea these clowns need to start putting the ball in the hoop. Ellis and Curry are killing us.

[Catchn_Picks]

Kind of sloppy play too. Not sharp passes, GS trying to look to cool instead of winning.

Weird game...they break out with run and gun and then go back into timing that is just a bit off.

confusing game, imo.

[That Guy]

This is painful to watch...

[jack meoff]

Definitely lost. Can only hope for ot.

[Donkeys2012]

The ends of these quarters has been terrible.

[PolishSensation]

Game is close, maybe OT?

[jack meoff]

Let's battle back tomorrow. Fuk these two teams

[Donkeys2012]

Yea these two teams are terrible.

[That Guy]

Need more than overtime at the rate these "professionals" are going... Pathetic
But.. Being on the OT!!

[lakerboy]

you can subscribe to the thread so that everytime someone posts it emails you. I get my emails immediately on my phone, so my phone is buzzing all day with every meaningless post that is made haha its all worth it though when LTA posts a last second gem

[suicidekings]

What the hell is with all this defensive pressure? I don't like this new incarnation of the Warriors. Take me back to 2009 when they couldn't put the totals high enough.

[Gio-man77]

I didn't get to bet on this game, but I'm pushing for OT
for all you guys who did. GL

[riffraff24]

Kings finally get their first bucket of the 4th half way through it. wtf. need OT

[Donkeys2012]

Kings are the Joke of the NBA especially in the 4th quarter. This is the last time I bet a game involving the kings. They are on the OFF LIMITS list now.

[sportfan]

quit betting the overs in the NBA this year , have seen many games stay under even with overtime Denver/grizz today for example

[sportfan]

This game prolly stay under even with OT as well , total at 198 what a joke .

[kl06ty]

1 point game...wow....too bad its only 2.8 seconds...

[riffraff24]

......deleted

[Donkeys2012]

Damn cousins. That missed free throw gonna cost us OT.

[kl06ty]

praying for a miracle OT lol...this is so pathetic

[sportfan]

need some miracle to send it to OT

[jas19illini]

I capped the totals for all seven games tonight and went 6-1. The only game that I actually bet? Fukkin SAC/GS. I must have the worst luck ever. Siiiigh....

[Redscot]

I capped the totals for all seven games tonight and went 6-1. The only game that I actually bet? Fukkin SAC/GS. I must have the worst luck ever. Siiiigh....

Ouch I feel your pain, I'm little sore myself atm. Lost that 76ers coveron Reddick's meaningless 3 pt. and last night lost my Celtics cover on Irving;s meaningless 3pt. at the buzzer.......grrrrrrrrrr.

Oh well. Gonna keep on grinding it out with LTA, lady luck should come around soon.

[JM92]

You can add me here. Because I started out really bad the season, I've been only playing 1/2 games a day (sometimes 3/4 on the big cards), only the real confident plays... im 1.2 units up, so I'm doing a lot better than I was. But take this, just last nite, had I went on all the plays I liked, 6-3. I only went with my favorites... 1-3. Seriously. I cant believe this shit of a season. Its only my first betting, and I think im still hangover from the playoffs. I won like 20 units on flat stake there, 4-0 the Dallas Lakers series on the sides, 5-1 the Bulls/Miami and 5-1 the Heat/Dallas. Guess I started over confident. been learning a lot from this thread and other around here though. Lets get'em tonight LTA.

Im likin' the Over @ the Orlando game. The Wiz defense sucks, 3s are sure to get back rainin' someday. The Magic suck in my mind but I are good enough to beat this kinds of teams. On the other hand, the Wizards should look to run of the long boards of the Magic jump shoots and will take advantage of the poor 1x1 defense.

[Love The Action]

A lot of talk in here about people regretting not playing their leans. As an fyi, just because you would have had a good night last night playing all your leans, does not mean that would transfer over to future nights. You need to develop a process of selecting plays that works for you. You cant play every game on the board night in and night out and be successful because the juice would eat you up. What I would challenge you to do is cap every game and use your capping to predict the score. Then, track that for a whole season. Over the long term, you will learn that playing all of your leans would be a losing proposition because of the juice. In fact, I am willing to bet those that had winning leans last night, have the opposite record tonight.

While you should play every game where you perceive there to be an edge because of an oddsmaker mistake, you need to realize that those mistakes are not made in every game. In order to beat the books long term, you should know what number you want, be ready to pounce when you get it and you should beat the pinny closer. That will determine how much of an edge you really had.

For example, despite losing last night, I am very satisfied with my play on the gs/sac over because that is a long term winning play. I knew I wanted 197, I waited patiently to get it and I beat the pinny closer by 1 point. Plus, pinny was juicing the over at 198 (-107) showing late over money right before the game and the 2h over was also getting juiced on the over implying more sharpies than just us lost money on that one. Nevertheless, playing the over at 197 was a shrewd play that just didnt work out but is close to a 60% winner over the long term based on the closing number. Consequently, we gave ourselves the best chance to win but it just didn't work out. The point being that it is not possible to have such an edge in every game on the board and even though you get lucky on one night going 5-1 with your leans, the next night is more often than not going to correct itself and you will go 1-5. Instead of throwing darts and playing every game, we all need a method or process for spotting an edge, determining how much of an edge we have and the number we need to get to maximize that edge. The oddsmakers are smart and use advanced algorithms just like us. You need to be selective in order to beat them long term. Therefore, you might have 5 plays on one night or 1 play, but you should only have a play when you know you have an edge with a +ev expectation that you can calculate.

Dont regret not playing leans. Instead learn why a lean won, track the line movement and look for common factors that might repeat itself in a future play so you know what to look for. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Over the years, I have learned that you will be more successful by wagering larger amounts on fewer +ev plays, than trying to play every game on the board at smaller amounts because the juice will kill you. Learn how to spot your edge and play that edge wherever you find it. However, once you actually know how to spot and calculate that edge, you will find that such an edge does not exist in every game. You have to be selective to some extent to succeed in the long term. GL.

[Love The Action]

quit betting the overs in the NBA this year , have seen many games stay under even with overtime Denver/grizz today for example

Generally, I play more unders than overs in the nba. However, right now, the books are giving us great value on the overs because they have overadjusted toward the under. Last night had 4 overs and 3 unders and this over trend started last week. Consequently, if I were you, I would start keeping your eyes out for value on the over. I suspect over the next 30 days, you will see a reversal of the under trend. Sports investing is all about adjustment and adaptation. If you think unders are going to keep hitting at such a high rate, I would question your experience in this business. At this point, its a matter of when, not if, overs start making a big run. It is inevitable. Goid luck buddy

[Donnie Brasco]

A lot of talk in here about people regretting not playing their leans. As an fyi, just because you would have had a good night last night playing all your leans, does not mean that would transfer over to future nights. You need to develop a process of selecting plays that works for you. You cant play every game on the board night in and night out and be successful because the juice would eat you up. What I would challenge you to do is cap every game and use your capping to predict the score. Then, track that for a whole season. Over the long term, you will learn that playing all of your leans would be a losing proposition because of the juice. In fact, I am willing to bet those that had winning leans last night, have the opposite record tonight.

While you should play every game where you perceive there to be an edge because of an oddsmaker mistake, you need to realize that those mistakes are not made in every game. In order to beat the books long term, you should know what number you want, be ready to pounce when you get it and you should beat the pinny closer. That will determine how much of an edge you really had.

For example, despite losing last night, I am very satisfied with my play on the gs/sac over because that is a long term winning play. I knew I wanted 197, I waited patiently to get it and I beat the pinny closer by 1 point. Plus, pinny was juicing the over at 198 (-107) showing late over money right before the game and the 2h over was also getting juiced on the over implying more sharpies than just us lost money on that one. Nevertheless, playing the over at 197 was a shrewd play that just didnt work out but is close to a 60% winner over the long term based on the closing number. Consequently, we gave ourselves the best chance to win but it just didn't work out. The point being that it is not possible to have such an edge in every game on the board and even though you get lucky on one night going 5-1 with your leans, the next night is more often than not going to correct itself and you will go 1-5. Instead of throwing darts and playing every game, we all need a method or process for spotting an edge, determining how much of an edge we have and the number we need to get to maximize that edge. The oddsmakers are smart and use advanced algorithms just like us. You need to be selective in order to beat them long term. Therefore, you might have 5 plays on one night or 1 play, but you should only have a play when you know you have an edge with a +ev expectation that you can calculate.

Dont regret not playing leans. Instead learn why a lean won, track the line movement and look for common factors that might repeat itself in a future play so you know what to look for. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Over the years, I have learned that you will be more successful by wagering larger amounts on fewer +ev plays, than trying to play every game on the board at smaller amounts because the juice will kill you. Learn how to spot your edge and play that edge wherever you find it. However, once you actually know how to spot and calculate that edge, you will find that such an edge does not exist in every game. You have to be selective to some extent to succeed in the long term. GL.

[Love The Action]

Possible 2x or more play in the works for today depending on the number I can get. Stay tuned.....

[JM92]

A lot of talk in here about people regretting not playing their leans. As an fyi, just because you would have had a good night last night playing all your leans, does not mean that would transfer over to future nights. You need to develop a process of selecting plays that works for you. You cant play every game on the board night in and night out and be successful because the juice would eat you up. What I would challenge you to do is cap every game and use your capping to predict the score. Then, track that for a whole season. Over the long term, you will learn that playing all of your leans would be a losing proposition because of the juice. In fact, I am willing to bet those that had winning leans last night, have the opposite record tonight.

While you should play every game where you perceive there to be an edge because of an oddsmaker mistake, you need to realize that those mistakes are not made in every game. In order to beat the books long term, you should know what number you want, be ready to pounce when you get it and you should beat the pinny closer. That will determine how much of an edge you really had.

For example, despite losing last night, I am very satisfied with my play on the gs/sac over because that is a long term winning play. I knew I wanted 197, I waited patiently to get it and I beat the pinny closer by 1 point. Plus, pinny was juicing the over at 198 (-107) showing late over money right before the game and the 2h over was also getting juiced on the over implying more sharpies than just us lost money on that one. Nevertheless, playing the over at 197 was a shrewd play that just didnt work out but is close to a 60% winner over the long term based on the closing number. Consequently, we gave ourselves the best chance to win but it just didn't work out. The point being that it is not possible to have such an edge in every game on the board and even though you get lucky on one night going 5-1 with your leans, the next night is more often than not going to correct itself and you will go 1-5. Instead of throwing darts and playing every game, we all need a method or process for spotting an edge, determining how much of an edge we have and the number we need to get to maximize that edge. The oddsmakers are smart and use advanced algorithms just like us. You need to be selective in order to beat them long term. Therefore, you might have 5 plays on one night or 1 play, but you should only have a play when you know you have an edge with a +ev expectation that you can calculate.

Dont regret not playing leans. Instead learn why a lean won, track the line movement and look for common factors that might repeat itself in a future play so you know what to look for. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Over the years, I have learned that you will be more successful by wagering larger amounts on fewer +ev plays, than trying to play every game on the board at smaller amounts because the juice will kill you. Learn how to spot your edge and play that edge wherever you find it. However, once you actually know how to spot and calculate that edge, you will find that such an edge does not exist in every game. You have to be selective to some extent to succeed in the long term. GL.

That was a great read no doubt. As I said for myself, its my first season. Im only 19 years old so I wouldn't be able to bet before anyways. I have all my leans and plays tracked down on excel spread sheets and Im creating a daily notebook where I always post the "recap" of a play's result. I hope I lear more about EV+ and other statistical thing's that I consider to be highly important in the near future.

Thanks once again

[Donnie Brasco]

That was a great read no doubt. As I said for myself, its my first season. Im only 19 years old so I wouldn't be able to bet before anyways. I have all my leans and plays tracked down on excel spread sheets and Im creating a daily notebook where I always post the "recap" of a play's result. I hope I lear more about EV+ and other statistical thing's that I consider to be highly important in the near future.

Thanks once again

U sound like a bright kid, and you have certainly found a place to learn. Love that u track ur plays, that way you can see what works and what does not. And as LTA mentioned, look for factors that may repeat. I have been gambling since i was 12. I started sports investing almost a year ago, when i found LTA's baseball thread. I have learned more about the sports market from LTA, Red and the regulars here than i ever knew. They prompted me to make a model and i did for ncaaf and nfl. I am a work in progress at 36 y/o. Take advantage at 19, and most of all stay teachable!!!!and bol to all!

[JM92]

Thanks Donnie

Btw, I shall ask... I got the over on the Wizards/Magic 182.5 @ -119 odds (local bookie)... I know this is a lot of juice, but Pinny, Bet365 and other bookies are all getting the line up, and it is now @ 185 on 365 and 184.5 @ Pinny. Now the odds on Pinny are - 110 if Im not mistaken... doesn't this mean that, if I buy the points down to 182.5, the odds should be around -130, therefore making the over 182.5 @ -119 a EV+ play, even though Im paying a lot of juice? I already made the play for half my normal unit. Would like to know you guys answer (its probably not going to stay like that much longer).

Thanks in advance!

[jas19illini]

Generally, I play more unders than overs in the nba. However, right now, the books are giving us great value on the overs because they have overadjusted toward the under. Last night had 4 overs and 3 unders and this over trend started last week. Consequently, if I were you, I would start keeping your eyes out for value on the over. I suspect over the next 30 days, you will see a reversal of the under trend. Sports investing is all about adjustment and adaptation. If you think unders are going to keep hitting at such a high rate, I would question your experience in this business. At this point, its a matter of when, not if, overs start making a big run. It is inevitable. Goid luck buddy

I've def noticed this that past week. Offenses are starting to hit their stride.