LTA's NBA Plays

[BigBurk]

Hmm.. I'm not sure about that over. Awaiting some more info today (line mov, refs).

[Trivial]

Thanks for the pick last night LTA. Tailing you again today.

[Love The Action]

Hmm.. I'm not sure about that over. Awaiting some more info today (line mov, refs).

Refs are Kennedy, Orr and Smith, all with a slight historical over lean. The total is up to 193 in spots, so I am very satisfied with this play so far. GL on whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

Nice call last night . Totally agree on this game and have it at 189 1/2. Thinking about hitting it for X2.

That's a great number

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, I like this over Do you have a lean in the Wizards game ? I like the Wizards and the over.

[BigBurk]

Wizards and under lean for me. Care to share why the over?

[TC Woods]

I'm leaning towards Minnesota at Washington <194...GL

[Exxpresso]

Wizards and under lean for me. Care to share why the over?

I think this one can go over the 200 but I´m not so sure. Both teams have bad stats in points allowed. And if the defenses will struggle today I see a 200+ game.

[TC Woods]

I'm leaning towards Minnesota at Washington <194...GL

That line is currently moving quite abit

[Exxpresso]

Took the wizards over 194 at betsson at - 112. Now let´s see if this hits.

[TC Woods]

Took the wizards over 194 at betsson at - 112. Now let´s see if this hits.

Maybe we both hit, I have them at under 196

GL

[BigBurk]

Damn.. that Wizards line is moving fast. I got it at u 193½ and it now is 196½! Makes me question my bet.

[burchfield]

I just got it through local at 197 Under

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, I like this over Do you have a lean in the Wizards game ? I like the Wizards and the over.

No lean on this game on either side or total. Good luck.

[TC Woods]

I just got it through local at 197 Under

Heading south of that now

[ram1502]

No lean on this game on either side or total. Good luck.

Hey LTA, do u know off the top of your head your record when betting sides vs. your record when betting totals. From what I've noticed, you are spot on when u find value in a side...is this the case? You are far more selective when it comes to betting sides, or maybe you just find value more seldomly. Just curious. Thanks in advance and good luck today sir!

[fecgp40]

Magic/Kings over is up to 194.5 at 5 dimes. Would you play it at that number?

[Redscot]

Magic/Kings over is up to 194.5 at 5 dimes. Would you play it at that number?

In his write up he always states where he has the game set. He estimates it at 196.5 in this instance....up to you if you think those 2 points reflect enough value bro....GL

[Trivial]

Magic/Kings over is up to 194.5 at 5 dimes. Would you play it at that number?

LTA says he thinks this game ends up at 196.5. So it is up to you. I would not do it now, but that is me. You need to decide if 2 points is still worth it. Don't listen to me. Listen to that voice in your head. It is your cashola. Best of luck if you play it.

[fecgp40]

LTA says he thinks this game ends up at 196.5. So it is up to you. I would not do it now, but that is me. You need to decide if 2 points is still worth it. Don't listen to me. Listen to that voice in your head. It is your cashola. Best of luck if you play it.

Thanks. I missed where he estimated the total.

[815Sox]

Thanks. I missed where he estimated the total.

He very often includes them just so you know. I missed the play so I skipped it. Made a few political long shot bets though.

[BigBurk]

Pfew that Wizards under seems very safe.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, do u know off the top of your head your record when betting sides vs. your record when betting totals. From what I've noticed, you are spot on when u find value in a side...is this the case? You are far more selective when it comes to betting sides, or maybe you just find value more seldomly. Just curious. Thanks in advance and good luck today sir!

Profitable on both...and I will have a side play for today. Writeup coming up now.

I actually just wrote about this in my NFL thread. I play more totals because I find more "value" on totals than for sides.

As I stated in my NFL thread, I concentrate more on totals for the sports markets in which I invest because they generally provide for softer opening numbers and more +ev opportunities. In addition, you generally have less volume and more sharp action in the totals markets. Consequently, if you can stay one step ahead of the sharp action and sharp steam, you can give yourself a larger edge on totals than on sides.

I have worked very hard to develop my model and refine my natural instincts in order to predict (1) the direction the line will move and (2) when the steam will hit. There is less volume on totals than spreads so max bets make more impact and you will see more volatility in the line moves. Staying one step ahead of those line moves and the market is what gives me my edge and is why I concentrate my investements in totals.

The books know more people will plays sides rather than totals so they put more work and attention to sides.
My model detects less "value" on sides because my numbers and Vegas numbers on sides are often very close. That is why I do not play as many sides -- I just can't find an edge. However, I very often detect value on totals and that value is most often where the line will end up moving. I am, for the most part, a value player first and foremost. Consequently, I don't play as many sides because the "value" just isn't there, whereas we might find 3 points or more of value on a handful of totals every day.

[IamHD]

Love the Action

Your plays are always on top of it. I like that play. Im going to buy 3 points putting it at 188 for the Magic and Kings game.

[ram1502]

Profitable on both...and I will have a side play for today. Writeup coming up now.

I actually just wrote about this in my NFL thread. I play more totals because I find more "value" on totals than for sides.

As I stated in my NFL thread, I concentrate more on totals for the sports markets in which I invest because they generally provide for softer opening numbers and more +ev opportunities. In addition, you generally have less volume and more sharp action in the totals markets. Consequently, if you can stay one step ahead of the sharp action and sharp steam, you can give yourself a larger edge on totals than on sides.

I have worked very hard to develop my model and refine my natural instincts in order to predict (1) the direction the line will move and (2) when the steam will hit. There is less volume on totals than spreads so max bets make more impact and you will see more volatility in the line moves. Staying one step ahead of those line moves and the market is what gives me my edge and is why I concentrate my investements in totals.

The books know more people will plays sides rather than totals so they put more work and attention to sides.
My model detects less "value" on sides because my numbers and Vegas numbers on sides are often very close. That is why I do not play as many sides -- I just can't find an edge. However, I very often detect value on totals and that value is most often where the line will end up moving. I am, for the most part, a value player first and foremost. Consequently, I don't play as many sides because the "value" just isn't there, whereas we might find 3 points or more of value on a handful of totals every day.

Thanks for your response LTA! That's what I thought was the case...but my question is: when you do find value in a side, are they any more profitable than your standard 1x total play? Again thanks as always, and keep up the good work in here.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Already took Sacramento Kings +7 hosting Orlando. Are the Spurs +6 at Oklahoma City a good play?

I realize Spurs are playing their third game in four days but last year went 3-0 against the Thunder. Plus Spurs are a very good team in the regular season and have beaten some heavyweight teams already this season.

Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/8/2012

Play #1

Magic/Kings over (191) 1x (Locked)

Here is a game set up perfectly for an over play. I might add a little bit more to this one once I see the ref assignments in the morning. Bottom line is that Orlando is due for a big time offensive performance after not playing particularly well on offense against the Bulls and Sacramento is coming off a game where they shot 40% but still hit for over 100 points against another top defensive team in the Bucks because of the Kings' fast pace. I think both teams play great offensive games on Sunday. If you look at the numbers, you will see a Sacramento team which is ranked 8th in the league in PACE and 6th in possession per game on offense, but bottom 5-10 in the league in most defensive categories from DEFF to Opponent Effective FG%, Opponent True Shooting %, Opponent Shooting % and Opponent 2 point Shooting %. Therefore, these stats tell us that Sacramento gives up way too many easy baskets in the paint. Against Orlando, they will be destroyed in the paint by Howard and I suspect this will lead to much faster pace of the game because Orlando will feed Howard early which will lead to easy baskets early in the shot clock and more possessions for each team. Orlando leads the league with 29% percent of points from three pointers leading to an average of 27 points per game from beyond the arc. This is the type of inside-outside game that Sacramento cannot handle. After such a poor performance against the Bulls at home, I suspect we see an Orlando team come out pretty motivated to have a great offensive game. Last season, these teams played twice, going over posted totals of 205 and 206. This season, Pinny opened at 190.5 and was immediately hit with over money because they are way undervaluing the over in this game. The books are making a 15 point adjustment in the total between last season and this season, despite both teams having almost identical rosters. I suspect tomorrow we see an output similar to last season's games as the books are way undervaluing the over in this game. I would not be surprised to see Orlando's biggest output in points so far this season come in the game against the Kings. With or without Westphal, it is clear the Kings players have no interest in playing defense. When you go against the inside-outside game of Orlando, you need to be able to play great three point defense while playing tough down low. The Kings can't do either and I suspect we see a fast paced game with high shooting percentages and game that flies over the posted total. I have this game set at 196.5 giving us over 5 points of variance between my model and the books' line; that is just way too much value in this game to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cavaliers/Trail Blazers over (191) 1x (Locked)

This number has plummeted from a Pinny opener of 196, all the way down to 191. Pinny just jumped to 191.5, so I locked up 191 right away as I think we start to see some buy back on the over. I think the over is a steal at this number, with the Cavaliers playing very well on offense and Portland in need of a bounce back performance after getting beaten down by the Suns. As we know, when Portland runs at home, they can be very dangerous. They burned our under when they played the Lakers because of this faster pace they are playing this year. However, they are also very efficient on offense with an OEFF ranked in the top 13. However, the Cavs are surprisingly efficient on offense this year with Irving running the point and Jamison and Varajo playing well. They have some nice bench players with Sessions and Gibson and they are playing very good team basketball on offense. Cleveland is ranked 10th in Effective Shooting % and 13th in True Shooting %. Combined with a PACE that is 14th overall, I think we see a surprising offensive performance from the Cavs today. This game should be all about pace. Both teams had a day off and Portland especially will be looking to run in order to get back to the method which has been the cause of their early season success. The Cavs are happy to oblige a running team and when combined with their offensive efficiency, I think we see a game that sails over the 195 mark and maybe even into the 200's. I have this game set at 196.5 which is a hair over the Pinny opener. However, the line movement down to 191 created too much value for me to pass up after looking at the situational factors which also favor the over. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #3

Lakers (-7) 1x (Locked)

2 and 7 are the most important key numbers in the NBA. This game opened at -7 at Pinny and was immediately hit with Laker money raising the Pinny price to -114 and they just moved to -7.5 recently. As soon as I saw Pinny add the hook, I jumped on -7 which remains available at Legends and Betonline, among a few other outlets. Had this one opened at -6.5 under the key number of 7, I might have laid off this play. However, the opener at -7 plus the move to -7.5 at Pinny, gives me the confidence to play the heavy public favorite in this game. To me, this cover is all about the front court of the Lakers dominating the weakened front court of the Grizzlies who are without Z-Bo for 6-8 weeks. With only Marc Gasol as a true front court threat for the Grizzlies, I think Marc's brother Pau Gasol and especially Bynum have a field day tonight at home. This truly is a matchup nightmare for the Grizzlies because the younger Gasol cannot stop both his older brother plus a dominate Bynum. Artest (or MWP) generally has had some success stopping Rudy Gay and even if Gay has a big day, I expect Kobe's production to offset anything they get off of Gay. Based on the number, the Lakers have the far better OEFF and DEFF rankings, as well as a better half court game. Even though the younger Grizzlies might be more explosive, they are missing their best player and inspirational leader without Randolph. I have this game set at (-8.5) giving us about 1.5 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Lakers for 1x. Good luck.

[fecgp40]

Play #2 Cavaliers/Trail Blazers over (191) 1x (Locked) This number has plummeted from a Pinny opener of 196, all the way down to 191. Pinny just jumped to 191.5, so I locked up 191 right away as I think we start to see some buy back on the over. I think the over is a steal at this number, with the Cavaliers playing very well on offense and Portland in need of a bounce back performance after getting beaten down by the Suns. As we know, when Portland runs at home, they can be very dangerous. They burned our under when they played the Lakers because of this faster pace they are playing this year. However, they are also very efficient on offense with an OEFF ranked in the top 13. However, the Cavs are surprisingly efficient on offense this year with Irving running the point and Jamison and Varajo playing well. They have some nice bench players with Sessions and Gibson and they are playing very good team basketball on offense. Cleveland is ranked 10th in Effective Shooting % and 13th in True Shooting %. Combined with a PACE that is 14th overall, I think we see a surprising offensive performance from the Cavs today. This game should be all about pace. Both teams had a day off and Portland especially will be looking to run in order to get back to the method which has been the cause of their early season success. The Cavs are happy to oblige a running team and when combined with their offensive efficiency, I think we see a game that sails over the 195 mark and maybe even into the 200's. I have this game set at 196.5 which is a hair over the Pinny opener. However, the line movement down to 191 created too much value for me to pass up after looking at the situational factors which also favor the over. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Play #3 Lakers (-7) 1x (Locked) 2 and 7 are the most important key numbers in the NBA. This game opened at -7 at Pinny and was immediately hit with Laker money raising the Pinny price to -114 and they just moved to -7.5 recently. As soon as I saw Pinny add the hook, I jumped on -7 which remains available at Legends and Betonline, among a few other outlets. Had this one opened at -6.5 under the key number of 7, I might have laid off this play. However, the opener at -7 plus the move to -7.5 at Pinny, gives me the confidence to play the heavy public favorite in this game. To me, this cover is all about the front court of the Lakers dominating the weakened front court of the Grizzlies who are without Z-Bo for 6-8 weeks. With only Marc Gasol as a true front court threat for the Grizzlies, I think Marc's brother Pau Gasol and especially Bynum have a field day tonight at home. This truly is a matchup nightmare for the Grizzlies because the younger Gasol cannot stop both his older brother plus a dominate Bynum. Artest (or MWP) generally has had some success stopping Rudy Gay and even if Gay has a big day, I expect Kobe's production to offset anything they get off of Gay. Based on the number, the Lakers have the far better OEFF and DEFF rankings, as well as a better half court game. Even though the younger Grizzlies might be more explosive, they are missing their best player and inspirational leader without Randolph. I have this game set at (-8.5) giving us about 1.5 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Lakers for 1x. Good luck.

Would you consider playing this at -7.5 LTA? Thanks.

[Love The Action]

Love the Action

Your plays are always on top of it. I like that play. Im going to buy 3 points putting it at 188 for the Magic and Kings game.

I highly recommend against buying 3 points on an NBA total. That is a long term losing wager. In general, other than the rare hook, you should never buy points on an NBA total because you eliminate any value you may have found by paying a price not worth your money.

Regardless, that Magic/Kings game is now set at 195.5. If you were going to buy 3 points now, you wouldn't even get my original number of 191. At this point, I recommend you stay away from that play as there is no value left. In addition, I would strongly suggest you never spend more than -110 (except the rare -120) on an NBA total.

GL

[Love The Action]

Thanks for your response LTA! That's what I thought was the case...but my question is: when you do find value in a side, are they any more profitable than your standard 1x total play? Again thanks as always, and keep up the good work in here.

More profitable? A 1x play is a 1x play.

I think you are asking whether I hit sides at a higher rate than totals. I have found no discernible difference in the NBA in hit rate between my side plays and total plays.

[Love The Action]

Already took Sacramento Kings +7 hosting Orlando. Are the Spurs +6 at Oklahoma City a good play?

I realize Spurs are playing their third game in four days but last year went 3-0 against the Thunder. Plus Spurs are a very good team in the regular season and have beaten some heavyweight teams already this season.

Thoughts?

The points you mention above are exactly why I lean Thunder. First, fatigue spots affect older teams like the Spurs much more detrimentally than a younger team like the Thunder. Second, OKC is playing with revenge because the Spurs beat them like a rented mule last season. I suspect this is a game OKC has had circled on their schedule for awhile now. Finally, the Spurs are coming off a big win last night when they had a huge shooting night by hitting over 50% of their shots. I don't see that happening today, especially with the Spurs missing Ginobli and playing on the road. To me, the play is OKC or pass.

I might play OKC, but I missed the -5.5

[NYSportsGuy210]

I think Thunder win too....just not sure if I see a blow out or not. I see more like a 99-95 type of win or 101-95. I am just not sure.

[jas19illini]

The points you mention above are exactly why I lean Thunder. First, fatigue spots affect older teams like the Spurs much more detrimentally than a younger team like the Thunder. Second, OKC is playing with revenge because the Spurs beat them like a rented mule last season. I suspect this is a game OKC has had circled on their schedule for awhile now. Finally, the Spurs are coming off a big win last night when they had a huge shooting night by hitting over 50% of their shots. I don't see that happening today, especially with the Spurs missing Ginobli and playing on the road. To me, the play is OKC or pass.

I might play OKC, but I missed the -5.5

I like OKC tonight as well. My book has -6.

[Love The Action]

I think Thunder win too....just not sure if I see a blow out or not. I see more like a 99-95 type of win or 101-95. I am just not sure.

Dude...you dont have to play this game. Sometimes, a pass is just as smart as play. You are unsure, so you should pass. GL in whatever you choose.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Dude...you dont have to play this game. Sometimes, a pass is just as smart as play. You are unsure, so you should pass. GL in whatever you choose.

I know looks like a no play for me. I did a 6 team ML parlay today bet $50 to win $204.

Chelsea ML/ Arsenal ML/ Barcelona ML/ Steelers ML/ Trail Blazers ML/ Orlando Magic ML.

And did another just with the three soccer picks.

Plus bet three prop bets in the Steelers - Broncos game: (Longest TD play OVER 34.5 yards/ FG OVER 45.5 yards will occur/Pitt Defense will sack Denver QB before Denver defense sacks a PITT QB for $30 each prop).

Also Kings +7 hosting Orlando.

I am done today.