LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA I have a question, and maybe this is sort of a newbie question, but I am relatively new to all this.

Why dont you ever bet the over and under on a single team. For instance, the pacers nets game tonight. You seem confident that the pacers d will keep a tired nets team to a low scoring game.

The total for the nets is at 88 right now. Wouldnt that be a good spot to play just in case the pacers beat up on them enough to cover the game total?

I don't play team totals. There are too many variables and the market is difficult to get a grasp on. Perhaps one day, but for right now I concentrate on full game totals, spreads and ML plays.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. The refs are Zarba, Willard and Roe, all three of which have strong under leans, both historical and recently. Last year, these three refs were top 10 strongest o/u records favoring the over and especially Zarba, who was an over machine all year and especially the playoffs. We had this same crew in the Knicks/Kings over and it worked out well, so I am hoping we get similar results today. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Nets under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

I think this one has topped out since Pinny just moved to -109 on the under at 183, so I'm locking this one in now and getting the hook as available at Legends and other outlets. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, but the Nets are much worse with this their 4th game in 5 nights and second of a b2b. The Pacers were off yesterday and I expect their defense to suffocate the same Nets team who have struggled to score against the weak defenses of the Wiz and Cleveland, much less a defense as efficient as the Pacers. Other top defense like Orlando and the Hawks kept this Nets offense under 80. The Pacers are currently the top rate team in defensive efficiency and the Nets play a snails pace as they are bottom 5 in overall Pace. Even though the Nets defense is horrible, the Pacers have struggled this year and are very inefficient on the offensive end. Therefore, I don't expect either team to have a big scoring output. The refs are Garretson, Dalen and Lane, all three of which have a historic under lean, especially Garretson who is known to swallow his whistle at times. I have this game set at 179 and we're getting over 4 points of variance between my number and what the books are offering. That is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bucks (+5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's a spot where I think buying the hook is important as covers in Denver are always hard to come by. However, I love this play and I'm going to play the Bucks for 1.5x because of this is such a tough spot for Denver. First, you have Bucks coming off double revenge in this game against a Denver team that beat them handily both games last year. Second, you have a Denver team that just played two games against the respected Lakers and had to really grind out points against the vaunted Lakers defense (as we well know from losing on the over twice). This game is not as high profile as the Lakers games were and we may not have Denver's full attention tonight. Third, and definitely most importantly, Denver is in a HUGE fatigue spot today because this is their third game in a row and the last leg of a b2b2b2b quirk in the schedule. In addition, before playing the Lakers for two straight games, they played Portland -- another top level team -- one day before the Lakers series started. Therefore, in addition to this being a b2b2b2b spot, this will also be there 4th game in five nights and 5th game in six nights if you factor in the Utah game on December 28th. Denver has now played games on 12/28, 12/29, 12/31, 1/1 and 1/2 -- that is truly a brutal stretch of games and I believe they are tired. Now, lets look at the Bucks who are playing solid defense as usual under Scott Skiles (ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency), but who are actually playing much improved on offense as well. The Bucks now have a healthy Bogut and Delfino to help the inside/outside scoring game to go along with the addition of Jackson which takes some of the scoring load off of Jennings. Plus, we have to remember that the Bucks get Mbah a Moute back today to help out their other role players in Dunleavy, Sanders, Livingston, Gooden and Illasyova. Finally, the Bucks are in a great spot because they are coming off 2 days of rest. Most people like to back Denver at home because of the thin air advantage. However, with Denver in such a bad fatigue spot and Milwaukee coming off two days of rest, I think this sets up perfect for a Milwaukee cover. The line opened up at +5.5 on Pinny, was immediately bet down to +5 and now sits at +4.5, despite over 65% of all bets coming in on Denver. That is very solid movement in favor of the Bucks. I have the Bucks set at +2 and by buying the hook, we are getting a full 3 points of value. I love the value in such a great spot to fade Denver and I am taking the Bucks for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay

Spurs ML (-200)/Pacers ML (-260) (+107) 0.75x (Locked)

No time for a writeup as I want to get this posted, but both road favorites are rested and playing teams in really bad fatigue spots. Barea is out for the Wolves and they are in a let down spot, while the Nets are in an even worse fatigue spot than the Twolves. I'm going to parlay the Spurs and Pacers for 0.75x. Good luck.

[jonathon1995]

Whats your NBA record this year?

[upscope]

Whats your NBA record this year?

Next page over....Updated daily

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012 Recap

1 - 2 - 1 = -0.75x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

14 - 11 = +3.25x

Just a brutal push on the Bucks game. They were literally winning or covering every second of that game until the final ten seconds. They shot the three down by 3 points, missed and then fouled with a few seconds left. Denver hit both free throws and Milwaukee missed the last second shot and the game was over at a push. Just brutal. The night should have been a wash if not for adding that stupid ML parlay. The Spurs burned me big time. If you see me play another ML parlay, remind of tonight. Ugh...what a wasted night. Could have been so much more....oh well, back to the grind. Time for a breakout day after treading water for awhile.

[Dexter]

brutal push is right....cant wait till my free trial of nba league pass runs out. i don't need to watch my nba plays every night.

[Swan4brownlow]

I took Milwaukee at my book at +4.5

Was hoping they wouldn't foul after missing the 3 with 10 seconds left but not to be.

[Love The Action]

I have two strong leans, but waiting on the ref assignments.

What does everyone like today?

[jbreez]

Perhaps an Ok city cover after a poor offensive performance last night against dallas? Or maybe an over in that game since they are playing a less than stellar portland defense.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Chi cover. Think public will lose on atlanta with their strong performance with heat.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Also Portland spread. They always have close games, and with all the westbroke shit I think it has a good chance

[EasyPicks]

Under at OKC

[pacocn]

Lta, i am leaning Portland today.
Portland +5

[doin]

I have two strong leans, but waiting on the ref assignments.

What does everyone like today?

I love covers.com
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html

[moguler]

Under at Chicago.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Rockets/Lakers over (193.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy at work, so no time for a writeup but this opened at 192 and was immediately bought up to 192.5. I waited hoping to get a better number but it seems the market agrees with my assessment of this game as the line continues to go up. The lakers have shot very poorly over the last three games and kobe had struggled. I believe those struggles will end tonight against the rockets weak defense. I have this game set at 196, giving us more than a basket of value. However, I think tonight is the night the shots drop for the lakers and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Under at Chicago.

Liking that as well.

What do you think LTA?

[Bbobbi]

Hey LTA, my book is showing 191 o/u for the lakers game. Any thoughts on the line moving more under before the game?

[r1kkie]

Pinny has it at 190.5 at the moment...

[jas19illini]

Pinny has it at 190.5 at the moment...

Was just gonna say that. I got -192 at my book a little while ago, but this under movement doesn't look good for us.

[r1kkie]

Damn just moved up to 191.5... :/

[NoHero]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Rockets/Lakers over (193.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy at work, so no time for a writeup but this opened at 192 and was immediately bought up to 192.5. I waited hoping to get a better number but it seems the market agrees with my assessment of this game as the line continues to go up. The lakers have shot very poorly over the last three games and kobe had struggled. I believe those struggles will end tonight against the rockets weak defense. I have this game set at 196, giving us more than a basket of value. However, I think tonight is the night the shots drop for the lakers and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

5dimes has it at 191.5 now...

[Love The Action]

Busy at work guys...no time for a lot of comments. You can't beat the closer 100% of the time and sometimes the movement tricks you into jumping too soon which I did. However, I expect a closing number around 194 and I am sticking with the over.

Good luck with whatever you decide.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Rockets/Lakers over (193.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy at work, so no time for a writeup but this opened at 192 and was immediately bought up to 192.5. I waited hoping to get a better number but it seems the market agrees with my assessment of this game as the line continues to go up. The lakers have shot very poorly over the last three games and kobe had struggled. I believe those struggles will end tonight against the rockets weak defense. I have this game set at 196, giving us more than a basket of value. However, I think tonight is the night the shots drop for the lakers and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bobcats/Cavaliers over (188.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for a long writeup today, but the bobcats play a fast pace and were embarrassed last game by miami. They should shoot much better tonight. The cavs are very efficient on offense and I expect them to also shoot well since neither team has a reason to play defense tonight. The refs are neutral with a small under lean in crawford. Nevertheless, I have this one set at 192 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[IXL]

greetings LTA! i have been following yur thread, and i love the analysis and the insight. i had to respond and let u know , thank you for the picks. keep up the good work.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Rockets/Lakers over (193.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy at work, so no time for a writeup but this opened at 192 and was immediately bought up to 192.5. I waited hoping to get a better number but it seems the market agrees with my assessment of this game as the line continues to go up. The lakers have shot very poorly over the last three games and kobe had struggled. I believe those struggles will end tonight against the rockets weak defense. I have this game set at 196, giving us more than a basket of value. However, I think tonight is the night the shots drop for the lakers and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.


Play #2

Bobcats/Cavaliers over (188.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for a long writeup today, but the bobcats play a fast pace and were embarrassed last game by miami. They should shoot much better tonight. The cavs are very efficient on offense and I expect them to also shoot well since neither team has a reason to play defense tonight. The refs are neutral with a small under lean in crawford. Nevertheless, I have this one set at 192 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Trail Blazers (+5) 1x (Locked)

This is a fatigue spot for okc and a good matchup for portland with cook out for okc and sefolosha hobbling. With portland coming off rest, I like them to keep this close as they have against okc in recent years. I have portland set at +3.5 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[riffraff24]

Hey LTA - How do you feel about Lakers -7? I'll be at the game and want to make a small play on my boys but only if it makes sense.

Historically Kobe tends to have a strong game coming off terrible performances

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, do you think the Under in Chicago is worth a shot ? Good Luck tonight

[MrShrink]

Lakers got embarrassed by Ty Lawson and a cherry-pickin' Gallinari the other night. They have a clear frontcourt advantage on both sides of the court. They don't want this to turn into a run and gun game and get beat on another 26 fast break points by a younger, quicker Houston squad. I expect them to focus on a patient, methodical half-court attack on offense, complimented by a tight perimeter defense that forces the Rockets to funnel the ball into the paint towards Pau, Bynum, and McRoberts. Have not seen any reason at all this year to take a Lakers over at 190+. Their D is solid and they don't have the high-powered scoring of years past.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA - How do you feel about Lakers -7? I'll be at the game and want to make a small play on my boys but only if it makes sense.

Historically Kobe tends to have a strong game coming off terrible performances

I like the over better, but do lean lakers. No play for me on the side thiugh. GL

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, do you think the Under in Chicago is worth a shot ? Good Luck tonight

I like the bulls side better. Both alanta and chicago have been playing great offensive basketball as evidenced by their respective 1st and 2nd rankings in offensive efficiency. I could see this one squeaking over so I am passing on the total with a possible play on the bulls. GL

[Love The Action]

Lakers got embarrassed by Ty Lawson and a cherry-pickin' Gallinari the other night. They have a clear frontcourt advantage on both sides of the court. They don't want this to turn into a run and gun game and get beat on another 26 fast break points by a younger, quicker Houston squad. I expect them to focus on a patient, methodical half-court attack on offense, complimented by a tight perimeter defense that forces the Rockets to funnel the ball into the paint towards Pau, Bynum, and McRoberts. Have not seen any reason at all this year to take a Lakers over at 190+. Their D is solid and they don't have the high-powered scoring of years past.

Good analysis and I do agree to an extent. The lakers have the advantage down low. However, the lakers have been shooting well below league average and kobe has struggled with his shot. I don't see that continuing tonight against a weak rockets defense ranked in the bottom 8 in DEFF. Also remember that the rockets have been playing great and efficient offensive basketball ranked in the top 10 in OEFF. Once the shots start dropping for the lakers, that will lead to a quicker pace and more points. I can see the lakers breaking through for 100-110 points with houston in the mid 90's. At some point, the lakers will break through offensively and I think that is tonight. GL shrink

[MrShrink]

Good analysis and I do agree to an extent. The lakers have the advantage down low. However, the lakers have been shooting well below league average and kobe has struggled with his shot. I don't see that continuing tonight against a weak rockets defense ranked in the bottom 8 in DEFF. Also remember that the rockets have been playing great and efficient offensive basketball ranked in the top 10 in OEFF. Once the shots start dropping for the lakers, that will lead to a quicker pace and more points. I can see the lakers breaking through for 100-110 points with houston in the mid 90's. At some point, the lakers will break through offensively and I think that is tonight. GL shrink

Good points. Unfortunately, only one of us can win tonight as we both got cruddy numbers (I'm under 191.5). And that would be.... THE BOOKS!!! HAHAHAH!!!! GL.

[blaze4g]

i got lakers under -193.5

[Bbobbi]

I agree with you LTA. Houston has allowed 108.5 ppg for their first 2 away games (Memphis, Orlando) and even though I do believe they will try to work on their D a little more but it wont be enough to stop the Lakers. After a disappointing shooting performance from Kobe and the Lakers on Sunday I think they come scoring hard today with homecourt advantage. Even though Kobe said he's still going to play "his" game he will definitely be looking for bynum and pau(63%shooting combined this year) for the easy baskets. As long as the Rockets keep up I think the play is over.

BoL to everyone! Ill be on the over with LTA though!