LTA's NBA Plays

[monologue]

Omg galinari .....

[monologue]

1.1 sec, denver has anyone like durant?

[brucethebear]

I would never risk my child's future on a sporting event by doing this as my sole income. There are too many unknowns and I believe that would be wholly irresponsible. Not to mention a waste of my education However, if I can add to my child's financial stability by investing in my spare time, then I think it would be irresponsible not to do that.

Happy new year mate.

[Love The Action]

I lean over in the Indy/Detroit game, but will pass. Detroit's defense is poor enough that Indy will get some easy shots and if they get in a rhythm, they will up the pace and take full advantage. However, Indy has been winning all season with defense and Detroit has not been shooting well. I think we see a game that ends in the mid to high 180's. Both teams are in a tired spot and that typically hurts defensive efficiency more than overall scoring. Still, I don't like betting an over with Bevetta as the crew chief and neither team's offense can be trusted right now so I will pass.

[monologue]

I see! Betting is not so bad! Anyway thanks for kind reply goodluck in next games mate!

[Holdin Aces]

No, I am a sports investor for extra income. I am a new father and have a full time career that allows me some time during the week to work on the games.

I would never risk my child's future on a sporting event by doing this as my sole income. There are too many unknowns and I believe that would be wholly irresponsible. Not to mention a waste of my education However, if I can add to my child's financial stability by investing in my spare time, then I think it would be irresponsible not to do that.

This is what I like about you. Happy New Years!

[jbreez]

LTA any thoughts on San Antonio -13.5 against the Jazz at home? Seems like a pretty hefty cover to me. Especially for a team playing as much as they have in the past four days

[SlickRick1382]

I lean over in the Indy/Detroit game, but will pass. Detroit's defense is poor enough that Indy will get some easy shots and if they get in a rhythm, they will up the pace and take full advantage. However, Indy has been winning all season with defense and Detroit has not been shooting well. I think we see a game that ends in the mid to high 180's. Both teams are in a tired spot and that typically hurts defensive efficiency more than overall scoring. Still, I don't like betting an over with Bevetta as the crew chief and neither team's offense can be trusted right now so I will pass.

Did he really ask you if you do this for an allowance?

LTA, man you have some patience bro. It's one thing to ask a question to see if this is your main source of income or some supplemental form of income but the way he said it I would of just ignored him. Felt like he took a shot at you.

Hope you have a Happy New Year with your family bro. I wish you lots of success, health and happiness for 2012. See you on the flip-side next year !!!!

[PR9]

I bombed all over Detroit


this was too easy

[Redscot]

I bombed all over Detroit


this was too easy

Also on Detroit, hope it keeps rolling this way.

Jumped a G.S./Atl tease, I like both to win but think both of these games come down to the wire worse case scenario. Like the extra 4 points cushion here. GL all.

[Love The Action]

I bombed all over Detroit


this was too easy

Last time I checked, it was still the first half. As I am sure you know, a first half 10 point lead is never safe in the NBA -- especially by Detroit of all teams.

GL though, I hope it does end up being easy money for you.

[Love The Action]

I'm passing on my over lean in the Hawks/Rockets game. Just can't take it at 192 or more.

[MrXYZ]

I think the allowance thing was a translation mistake by the poster rather than a jibe.

Great answer LTA, one of the few guys on the forum that can keep sports betting in perspective. I find it amazing you're able to balance family & career commitments with
capping games & wish you success in 2012.

[PR9]

Last time I checked, it was still the first half. As I am sure you know, a first half 10 point lead is never safe in the NBA -- especially by Detroit of all teams.

GL though, I hope it does end up being easy money for you.

thanks ;-)


semi bombed on them for 1st Q and 1H as well. They were coming out to play hard tonight. Best spot ever. The line and % gave it all away

[Love The Action]

Did he really ask you if you do this for an allowance?

LTA, man you have some patience bro. It's one thing to ask a question to see if this is your main source of income or some supplemental form of income but the way he said it I would of just ignored him. Felt like he took a shot at you.

Hope you have a Happy New Year with your family bro. I wish you lots of success, health and happiness for 2012. See you on the flip-side next year !!!!

It's no biggie bud, I don't think he was taking a shot at me. At least I didn't take it that way. I just assumed that his English wasn't the best based on the way he wrote. Even if he was taking a shot -- at what I do not know -- that's not going to bother me. It takes a lot more than that to rattle my cage. This is SBR, nothing that is said on here really matters. I don't care what people think of me. I have nothing to prove.

Good luck tonight my friend. Here's wishing you and yours a very happy new year!

[Love The Action]

This is what I like about you. Happy New Years!

[Love The Action]

I think the allowance thing was a translation mistake by the poster rather than a jibe.

Great answer LTA, one of the few guys on the forum that can keep sports betting in perspective. I find it amazing you're able to balance family & career commitments with
capping games & wish you success in 2012.

Same to you GL and happy new year

[Love The Action]

Happy new year mate.

Same to you...happy new year!

[Love The Action]

Very frustrating last couple days. I left a lot of money on the table yesterday by not playing a few of my stronger leans and the same thing is happening tonight.

[SlickRick1382]

Very frustrating last couple days. I left a lot of money on the table yesterday by not playing a few of my stronger leans and the same thing is happening tonight.

Seems like a Christmas / New Years Jinx !!!!

I left a ton of money on the table and the plays I did make turned me from net +15 units as of Thursday to net -5 units. Don't think I'll ever gamble during the holidays again !!!!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/31/2011

Play #1

Knicks/Kings over (198.5) 0.50x and over (197) 0.50x for total of 1x (Locked)

Whether Amare plays or not, I think this game flyes over 200. I suspect he does play, but even if he does not play, I can't imagine the Knicks shooting under 40% three games in a row. The kings simply do not play defense. I believe getting this matchup at anything under 200 is a steal regardless of Amare's health. Therefore, even though I know there is a chance he does not play, I have to roll with the over at this small number. If you look at the total in this matchup from last season, they were set well over 200 at 219 and 208. Consequently, even if Amare does not play, I think we see the books set this number over 200 which gives me a great number here. If you look at the advanced efficiency numbers for these first few games, you will see that neither team plays defense and their defensive efficiency numbers are brutal. Therefore, I suspect we see two teams who just decide not to play defense and choose to play a fast paced run and gun style of basketball where they just try to outscore each other. I am heading to bed now, but as soon as I wake up I am going to be checking this number to see if I can still get it and put more down on it. We shall see. I have this game set at 207, so to get it almost 10 points less is true "value." I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets/Lakers over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

I just don't think a Nuggets game should be set this low right now, even though the Lakers are an under machine at the moment. To me, the Lakers are slowly but surely breaking out of their shooting slump and there is no reason for them not to hit 100 against the Nuggs because the Nuggs are playing at such a fast pace and have such a deep bench. Therefore, regardless of who is on the court, the Nuggs can put up some points. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and the Nuggs play the fastest pace in the league right now. Even though both teams do have solid defensive efficiency numbers (both top 10 as well), I think we see a great offensive game today. The Nuggs will force a fast pace and the Lakers will have no choice but to oblige. Rodney Mott is ref, along with Maddox and Zielinski. Even though Mott was the best under ref out there last year, he is 2-0 o/u this year and his lifetime stats do not evidence such a huge under lean. Therefore, I think that last year's big under results was an anomaly. The other two refs generally have no lean either way. I have this game set at 203 and we're getting over 7 points of value. Because of the strength of the Lakers defense, I am not going to put more than 1x on this one but getting 196.5 is just too good to pass up for a Nuggets game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

76'ers/Warriors under (191) 1x (Locked)

I think this total has topped out at the important number of 191. There are certain numbers which are conducive to unders: 177, 182, 191 and 212 for example are generally good numbers to take an under because of the combination of possessions that need to overcome them in any one matchup. In this game, you have Philly in a fatigue spot going against the Warriors who are coming off of two days of rest but playing without their top scorer in Monte Ellis. The Warriors will have their second best scorer with Curry, but he is not 100% and I do not expect a 30 point outburst from him. Additionally, the Philly guards are not a good matchup for Curry and their length and quickness can neutralize Curry's game. However, this play is more about GS's emerging defensive scheme under Marc Jackson. The Warriors are emphasizing defense and it shows in their results. They have held the Bulls and Knicks under 92 points in their last two games and those are both solid offensive clubs. Plus, the 76'er have been shooting lights out in all three games this season in shooting 48% or better in all three games. With the 76'ers in the second game of b2b and third game in four nights, I think they will be laboring a bit tonight and I do not expect four straight great shooting performances against this rested Warriors defense. With the combination of lack of scoring for GS and a possible regression in shooting for Philly, coupled with both teams having defensive efficiency numbers in the top 12 of the league, I think we have a great under spot here to fade the public in one of the most heavily backed overs of the day. I have this game set at 187 and it's up to 191 giving us 4 points of "value." However, I think we see some steam on the under dropping the number before game time to a closing around 189. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/31/2011

Play #1

Knicks/Kings over (198.5) 0.50x and over (197) 0.50x for total of 1x (Locked)

Whether Amare plays or not, I think this game flyes over 200. I suspect he does play, but even if he does not play, I can't imagine the Knicks shooting under 40% three games in a row. The kings simply do not play defense. I believe getting this matchup at anything under 200 is a steal regardless of Amare's health. Therefore, even though I know there is a chance he does not play, I have to roll with the over at this small number. If you look at the total in this matchup from last season, they were set well over 200 at 219 and 208. Consequently, even if Amare does not play, I think we see the books set this number over 200 which gives me a great number here. If you look at the advanced efficiency numbers for these first few games, you will see that neither team plays defense and their defensive efficiency numbers are brutal. Therefore, I suspect we see two teams who just decide not to play defense and choose to play a fast paced run and gun style of basketball where they just try to outscore each other. I am heading to bed now, but as soon as I wake up I am going to be checking this number to see if I can still get it and put more down on it. We shall see. I have this game set at 207, so to get it almost 10 points less is true "value." I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets/Lakers over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

I just don't think a Nuggets game should be set this low right now, even though the Lakers are an under machine at the moment. To me, the Lakers are slowly but surely breaking out of their shooting slump and there is no reason for them not to hit 100 against the Nuggs because the Nuggs are playing at such a fast pace and have such a deep bench. Therefore, regardless of who is on the court, the Nuggs can put up some points. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and the Nuggs play the fastest pace in the league right now. Even though both teams do have solid defensive efficiency numbers (both top 10 as well), I think we see a great offensive game today. The Nuggs will force a fast pace and the Lakers will have no choice but to oblige. Rodney Mott is ref, along with Maddox and Zielinski. Even though Mott was the best under ref out there last year, he is 2-0 o/u this year and his lifetime stats do not evidence such a huge under lean. Therefore, I think that last year's big under results was an anomaly. The other two refs generally have no lean either way. I have this game set at 203 and we're getting over 7 points of value. Because of the strength of the Lakers defense, I am not going to put more than 1x on this one but getting 196.5 is just too good to pass up for a Nuggets game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

76'ers/Warriors under (191) 1x (Locked)

I think this total has topped out at the important number of 191. There are certain numbers which are conducive to unders: 177, 182, 191 and 212 for example are generally good numbers to take an under because of the combination of possessions that need to overcome them in any one matchup. In this game, you have Philly in a fatigue spot going against the Warriors who are coming off of two days of rest but playing without their top scorer in Monte Ellis. The Warriors will have their second best scorer with Curry, but he is not 100% and I do not expect a 30 point outburst from him. Additionally, the Philly guards are not a good matchup for Curry and their length and quickness can neutralize Curry's game. However, this play is more about GS's emerging defensive scheme under Marc Jackson. The Warriors are emphasizing defense and it shows in their results. They have held the Bulls and Knicks under 92 points in their last two games and those are both solid offensive clubs. Plus, the 76'er have been shooting lights out in all three games this season in shooting 48% or better in all three games. With the 76'ers in the second game of b2b and third game in four nights, I think they will be laboring a bit tonight and I do not expect four straight great shooting performances against this rested Warriors defense. With the combination of lack of scoring for GS and a possible regression in shooting for Philly, coupled with both teams having defensive efficiency numbers in the top 12 of the league, I think we have a great under spot here to fade the public in one of the most heavily backed overs of the day. I have this game set at 187 and it's up to 191 giving us 4 points of "value." However, I think we see some steam on the under dropping the number before game time to a closing around 189. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Card is final at the above 3 plays. We absolutely demolished the closer in the Knicks/Kings game which closed at 202 giving us 5 points of value for the 0.50x wager at 197 and 3.5 points of value for the wager at 198.5. That is a very profitable play over time. Despite not winning, we also did well in the Nuggs/Lakers over by beating that closing number by 1.5 points. Hopefully we do the same with the Philly/GS under and end the day with some nice profit.

I'm heading out to celebrate the New Year with my loved ones. Good luck tonight and I wanted to take a minute to thank all the contributors in all my threads for their positive contributions and wish everyone a very healthy and happy new year!

[upscope]

Hny lta!!

[RAVENSFAN]

Went big on the 198 I got LTA! Thanks and cheers for bringing in the new year for me. Appreciate all your effort!

[brucethebear]

Knicks give us back what they cost us against the lakers.
Nice end to the year (or start of here in oz.)

[Swan4brownlow]

Good work today LTA, my own NBA punting hqas gotten off to a rocky start so I think I might tail your plays for a while. Happy new year and bol

[monologue]

I dunno what the guy was trying to say about me but it was just a simple question. I have no other intention... and sorry for bad english, what I meant was if he wagers for living or just for some extra income. Anyway thanks LTA for understanding me correctly. Happy new year to all!

[pacocn]

Lta, nice ending to 2011

[wguan2]

Congrats LTA. BOL this upcoming year in every sport. Cheers.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/31/2011 Recap

2 - 1 = +0.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

12 - 8 = +4.1x

Happy New Year!

[Exxpresso]

Happy New Year LTA
Great start into the NBA season

[Trivial]

Happy New Year LTA and the gang !

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/1/2012

Play #1

Grizzlies/Bulls under (189) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line, facing two tough defenses, I dont see either team shooting over 50% like they both did in their last game. Rose will get his mvp award and might press a little and this is the Bulls' first home game after a long road trip making this a good under spot. Both teams tend to have shooting issues against defenses like these and I like think we see a slower paced game, especially in the 2h. I have this game set at 186.5 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Great finish last night my man, lets rock 2012.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/1/2012

Play #1

Grizzlies/Bulls under (189) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line, facing two tough defenses, I don't see either team shooting over 50% like they both did in their last game. Rose will get his MVP award and might press a little during this game and this is the Bulls' first home game after a long road trip making this a good under spot. Both teams tend to have shooting issues against defenses like these and I like think we see a slower paced game, especially in the 2h. I have this game set at 186.5 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I am leaving for the morning and will be back later this afternoon. I have quite a few games with strong leans and will be locking in more games throughout the day. I will try to post them as soon as I lock them if at all possible. Otherwise, I will post them upon my return. Good luck and Happy New Year.