LTA's NBA Plays

**riffraff24** · 12-31-11, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

jesus, my book has the lakers game at 199.

I'm in vegas right now and its 199 too.

**absolutkaos** · 12-31-11, 12:36 PM

Knicks/Kings down to 196 now...

**absolutkaos** · 12-31-11, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

I'm in vegas right now and its 199 too.

I'm seeing it at 198 and getting in now...

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 01:19 PM

Big steam on the Knicks total now getting it all the way up to 200. Has anyone read any confirmations about Amare? I suspect the betting syndicates just received some off-market information about this game that Amare is playing. We're looking good now, I just wish I could have gotten a full 1x at 197 instead of having 0.50x at 197 and the other 0.50x at 198.5.

**BMaddz** · 12-31-11, 01:36 PM

i live in ny and the ny post knicks writer has amare out tonight

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by BMaddz

i live in ny and the ny post knicks writer has amare out tonight

Can you post the link?

**BMaddz** · 12-31-11, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Can you post the link?

NY Knicks NBA Basketball on SNY: News, Stats, Roster, Schedule

http://www.theknicksblog.com/2011/12/31/amare-out-tonight/

SNY's coverage of the New York Knicks NBA basketball team including news, stats, rosters, and schedule.

**jbreez** · 12-31-11, 02:52 PM

Hey LTA, im just curious. are you a US player?

**PR9** · 12-31-11, 03:11 PM

LTA. I found the following info on another board (covers) concerning the over/under on this game, I thought it would be of interest to you ~ the following is copied and pasted ~

"SO, here is info that would qualify as a LEAN (75% ref tendency with at least a 20 game sample)on the DEN/LAL game.

The three refs...

TRE MADDOX - has only one game in the past two years with either of these teams, so kind of inconsequential info and he is the wildcard. IF I had some more info on him, this might be a stronger play.

RODNEY MOTT - He has been UNDER on the last 5 DEN games he has officiated and 7 of the last 9 laker games.

GARY ZIELINSKI - Under 6 of the last 8 on DEN games and 3 of the last 4 laker games.

Trend is 21-5 combined, but has the variable of an unknown ref.

Lakers are 4 unders and 0 overs this year. DEN is 3 overs and 0 unders this year.

This total is off by 3-4 pts and should be in the 194-195 range.

ps- my sportsbook has the line at 198 right now.

**le14** · 12-31-11, 03:19 PM

thoughts on GSW +2 at home against the 76ers coming off a game?

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 03:20 PM

le Warriors are going to be missing Montae Ellis
tonight (due to personal reasons) this explains the
line.

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 03:20 PM

Lakes should get some easy buckets with
Bynum back too.

**TC Woods** · 12-31-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by PR9

LTA. I found the following info on another board (covers) concerning the over/under on this game, I thought it would be of interest to you ~ the following is copied and pasted ~

"SO, here is info that would qualify as a LEAN (75% ref tendency with at least a 20 game sample)on the DEN/LAL game.

The three refs...

TRE MADDOX - has only one game in the past two years with either of these teams, so kind of inconsequential info and he is the wildcard. IF I had some more info on him, this might be a stronger play.

RODNEY MOTT - He has been UNDER on the last 5 DEN games he has officiated and 7 of the last 9 laker games.

GARY ZIELINSKI - Under 6 of the last 8 on DEN games and 3 of the last 4 laker games.

Trend is 21-5 combined, but has the variable of an unknown ref.

Lakers are 4 unders and 0 overs this year. DEN is 3 overs and 0 unders this year.

This total is off by 3-4 pts and should be in the 194-195 range.

ps- my sportsbook has the line at 198 right now.

What "other" board on you referring to??

Thanks 4 the help

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by jbreez

Hey LTA, im just curious. are you a US player?

Yes, but I don't play offshore...as of yet.

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by PR9

LTA. I found the following info on another board (covers) concerning the over/under on this game, I thought it would be of interest to you ~ the following is copied and pasted ~

"SO, here is info that would qualify as a LEAN (75% ref tendency with at least a 20 game sample)on the DEN/LAL game.

The three refs...

TRE MADDOX - has only one game in the past two years with either of these teams, so kind of inconsequential info and he is the wildcard. IF I had some more info on him, this might be a stronger play.

RODNEY MOTT - He has been UNDER on the last 5 DEN games he has officiated and 7 of the last 9 laker games.

GARY ZIELINSKI - Under 6 of the last 8 on DEN games and 3 of the last 4 laker games.

Trend is 21-5 combined, but has the variable of an unknown ref.

Lakers are 4 unders and 0 overs this year. DEN is 3 overs and 0 unders this year.

This total is off by 3-4 pts and should be in the 194-195 range.

ps- my sportsbook has the line at 198 right now.

Thanks. I mentioned my take on all three refs in my writeup. At the end of the day, I don't put much stock in past historical trends such as those so that does not concern me.

I beat the closing number by 1.5 points so this was a +ev winning play over time and I am satisfied win or lose. In reality, consistently making +ev plays and beating the efficiency of the pinny closer is all you can control in this business. We can't go out and make the shots, but we can give ourselves a long term edge by consistently and accurately anticipating market movement in order to get the best possible price/number. That is what I accomplished with this play and because it is a profitable play in the long term, I am satisfied.

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 04:00 PM

5 points off pace after the 1st quarter....

**monologue** · 12-31-11, 04:07 PM

They rnt scoring... Damn!

**PR9** · 12-31-11, 04:11 PM

both teams something like 0/13 shooting on 3's

that's killing it

**alamo** · 12-31-11, 04:23 PM

Sick of all this negativety from EVERYBODY. STFU

**blankoblanco** · 12-31-11, 04:28 PM

come on bro, try to be positive about the negativity. i'm sick of this negativity about all the negativity

**monologue** · 12-31-11, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Sick of all this negativety from EVERYBODY. STFU

Im just frustrated bro, u STFU

**ParlayKing** · 12-31-11, 04:33 PM

On the bright side the game is close, hopefully this inspires both teams to score some more and make adjustments at the half to do so

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 04:36 PM

we got this guys, both teams will
come out firing.

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 04:38 PM

Im on the over 98 2nd half as well

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 05:08 PM

Win or lose, everyone needs to remember, this is just one out of over 400 probable NBA wagers that we will make this year.

Just trying to provide a little perspective. Whether we sweep the board, break even or whatever, it's just one piece of the overall puzzle.

It's all about long term.

Might have one or two more plays. Finishing up the card now before heading out for the night. GL

**monologue** · 12-31-11, 05:09 PM

Thats right, thanks LTA, im ur new fan

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 05:13 PM

Lta, i am an old fan, and i want to thank you for all
your hard work for 2011. Happy Holidays to you and yours.

**monologue** · 12-31-11, 05:14 PM

Just wondering.. Do u wager for living? Or just for ur allowances?

**NoHero** · 12-31-11, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by monologue

Just wondering.. Do u wager for living? Or just for ur allowances?

I too am curious.

**absolutkaos** · 12-31-11, 05:31 PM

looking forward to rollin' with you in 2012 LTA! Happy new year.

**TheSterNYK** · 12-31-11, 05:39 PM

The knicks are -1 without Amare Stoud...only clue i'll give you

**pacocn** · 12-31-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by TheSterNYK

The knicks are -1 without Amare Stoud...only clue i'll give you

What are the Knicks -1
Alex.

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by TheSterNYK

The knicks are -1 without Amare Stoud...only clue i'll give you

If I had to pick a side, I would say Sacramento will win. The loss of Amare hurts the Knicks depth, especially down low. I think Sacramento probably wins in a shootout. The Knicks will regroup when they return home. I'm not so sure about your Knicks "hint."

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 05:44 PM

Looks like we'll need OT in the Lakers game. I didn't win one over last year because of OT, but I lost almost 20 unders because of it. I am actually expecting to win quite a few overs this year via OT because an evening of the percentages is inevitable.

**Love The Action** · 12-31-11, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by monologue

Just wondering.. Do u wager for living? Or just for ur allowances?

No, I am a sports investor for extra income. I am a new father and have a full time career that allows me some time during the week to work on the games.

I would never risk my child's future on a sporting event by doing this as my sole income. There are too many unknowns and I believe that would be wholly irresponsible. Not to mention a waste of my education However, if I can add to my child's financial stability by investing in my spare time, then I think it would be irresponsible not to do that.