70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[francescosol]

Dallas is a play today! but i have not info about injuries... someone has?

[RkOiller]

Dallas
PLAYER - DESCRIPTION
Tim Thomas - Day-to-Day (personal)

GSW
PLAYER - DESCRIPTION
Kelenna Azubuike - Out For Season (knee injury)
Raja Bell - Out Indefinitely (wrist injury)
Corey Maggette - Day-to-Day (finger injury)
Vladimir Radmanovic - Out Indefinitely (sore achilles)
Anthony Randolph - Out Indefinitely (ankle injury)
Brandan Wright - Out Indefinitely (shoulder surgery)

[francescosol]

Dallas
PLAYER - DESCRIPTION
Tim Thomas - Day-to-Day (personal)

GSW
PLAYER - DESCRIPTION
Kelenna Azubuike - Out For Season (knee injury)
Raja Bell - Out Indefinitely (wrist injury)
Corey Maggette - Day-to-Day (finger injury)
Vladimir Radmanovic - Out Indefinitely (sore achilles)
Anthony Randolph - Out Indefinitely (ankle injury)
Brandan Wright - Out Indefinitely (shoulder surgery)

Great info many thanks
so, after this news, Dallas is confirmed, but i see the odds for Dallas change minute by minute, from -5 to -4 now. can someone explain this?

[barts185]

Great info many thanks
so, after this news, Dallas is confirmed, but i see the odds for Dallas change minute by minute, from -5 to -4 now. can someone explain this?

Sure - Dallas has sucked lately, and Dallas beat them by 9 in Dallas 5 days ago (the only game Dallas has won in their last 5, and they still didn't cover), so the thinking is that there's a strong motive for revenge. The last time Dallas covered a spread was on 01/24

And while it isn't showing up on any official reports that I've seen, there's a question of whether or not they will be sitting Dampier to let him heal.

[francescosol]

Sure - Dallas has sucked lately, and Dallas beat them by 9 in Dallas 5 days ago (the only game Dallas has won in their last 5, and they still didn't cover), so the thinking is that there's a strong motive for revenge. The last time Dallas covered a spread was on 01/24

And while it isn't showing up on any official reports that I've seen, there's a question of whether or not they will be sitting Dampier to let him heal.

Thanks Bart
About the system Dallas is the play from -4.5 (better less), but finally, we must wait update info about Dampier, in order to confirm the bet... i'm right?

[barts185]

Yes, but according to the Dallas papers, it's going to be a gametime decision. He didn't practice with the team yesterday, just rode an exercise bike and then had his knee iced up.

[p0l0bear01]

Hi guys,

Sorry for chiming in out of the blue. For the GSW/DAL game the data shows that it is a no play. Am I doing some thing wrong since people are posting the play is Dallas.
home:gsw
road: dallas
home win %: 0.391
road win %: 0.615
Selected team: 0
615 - 391=224
224 / 20= 11.2
plus 3 home or -3 road = 8.2
Add the line: 4.2
Result: No play

Thanks

[francescosol]

home win %: 0.391
road win %: 0.615

this is incorrect, you must take overall

Dallas 0.620
Golden State 0.265

of you calculate now with this, you will see Dallas -4 is the play

[francescosol]

the real problem is Dampier injury, so Dallas become a no play!

"Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters."

[AceofSP2107]

so are there any plays tonite

[Hawk007]

so are there any plays tonite

[francescosol]

can someone take final decision on Dallas?

[kingsr]

can someone take final decision on Dallas?

No play

[francescosol]

Dallas odds dropped to -4.5 again, maybe Dampier will play?

[francescosol]

Dallas odds dropped to -4.5 again, maybe Dampier will play?

SAN FRANCISCO -- Coach Rick Carlisle said he was leaning toward not playing Erick Dampier in tonight's game against the Golden State Warriors.

Dampier has been dealing with a left knee effusion for more than a month, causing him to miss four games, including last week's win over the Warriors.

Soreness is no longer a problem, Dampier said, but he needs to regain strength in and around the knee. Carlisle doesn't want Dampier playing in back-to-back games before the All-Star break



Finally Dallas is no play. right? confirmed?

[Welt446+]

SAN FRANCISCO -- Coach Rick Carlisle said he was leaning toward not playing Erick Dampier in tonight's game against the Golden State Warriors.

Dampier has been dealing with a left knee effusion for more than a month, causing him to miss four games, including last week's win over the Warriors.

Soreness is no longer a problem, Dampier said, but he needs to regain strength in and around the knee. Carlisle doesn't want Dampier playing in back-to-back games before the All-Star break



Finally Dallas is no play. right? confirmed?

Dallas is NOT a play because Dampier was out on Feb 3rd and has not been back for a week.

[Biff Webster]

No play in my eyes. Everything I read is that Dampier is doubtful.

[Lnn7]

For those who wants to follow this system, the Dampier injury shouldnt matter much because they've had to dealt with his on and off injury all year long already. Yes he's a starter, but really, he's just a role player with little consequences to the team's success. Even when he does play he plays for only about 25 to 30 mins a game. His backup drew gooden is just as good as he is when dampier can't play, so i would call this injury a nonfactor and i'd call this a play.
On the other hand, the line is what it is b/c of the warrior's success against Dallas at home the past 2 years ever since that playoff series where the warriors embarrass the mavericks. For some reason, and some say it's b/c of Nelson's understanding of how Dallas play, the warriors have had incredible success against dallas considering how bad the warriors have been the past 2 years.

[barts185]

While I agree that Gooden is just as good, unfortunately, the team does not play anywhere near as well when Gooden is on the court as it does when Dampier is on the court. The season-to-date numbers for Kidd-Terry-Marion-Nowitzki-Dampier vs. Kidd-Terry-Marion-Nowitzki-Gooden are much in favor of the first group.

[PatrickBateman]

http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/02/mavericks-center-erick-dampier-more-doub.html

Pretty much assuring he will not be playing tonight

[jcygts6]

so dallas won tonight... are the plays cavs and portland tomarrow? Both teams have starters out.

[nivekk1400]

nice nice

[francescosol]

Mavs 127
Warriors 117

No play was very bad choice

[francescosol]

i have a question:
This system could also be applied to college basketball? could be also applied to other sports like Baseball?

[Skyline]

Cavs game will probably be a double digits spread game so it won't be a system play. Portland is another play but Brandon Roy is out however i think they can handle it without him. My pick for this game would be Portland even if the system doesn't say that's a play.

[Lnn7]

Like I said, it should have been a play because Dampier is pretty much a nonfactor to Dallas' success. Drew Gooden had much better game than Dampier would have had in place of his absence. Injury is really subjective, you have to consider who's injure and how big of an impact is the injury to the success of the team. If you compare the Brandon Roy injury to Eric Dampier, it's a no brainer to call the blazers game a no play b/c brandon roy is a huge part of portland's success while eric dampier has very little contribution to dallas success considering his replacement is probably a better player and they're used to dealing with his on and off injury not just this year but for as long as they've had him.

[Lnn7]

Using better judgement on injury, i would call this system now 16-4. Counting the blazers game as a no play b/c of brandon roy and dallas game as a play b/c dampier is not a major factor plus they're used to playing w/o him and they have a good replacement for him.

[fsugolf]

gl to anyone betting tonight

[barts185]

Using better judgement on injury, i would call this system now 16-4. Counting the blazers game as a no play b/c of brandon roy and dallas game as a play b/c dampier is not a major factor plus they're used to playing w/o him and they have a good replacement for him.

For using better judgement on injury, are you looking at each player individually, or 5-man units and how they perform with / without certain players?

[aoz1122]

2 Games Qualify Mathematically today:

02/09/10 A Dallas 7 32 19 62.745098% NO 2.0392
02/09/10 H Denver -7 34 17 66.666667% YES -2.0392
Dallas qualifies, but played yesterday NO PLAY


02/09/10 A Oklahoma City -1 29 21 58.000000% YES -3.3019
02/09/10 H Portland 1 30 23 56.603774% NO 3.3019
Portland Qualifies, Roy and Przybilla still injured.

Let the injury debate continue.....

[HoulihansTX]

Roy and Przyb, Oden, and all the others have been INJ for more than a week. So now their lineup is considered to be starters, not replacements.

[cashil]

So portland is a go?

[Hawk007]

Roy has been out since 1/22, qualifies. Blazers are 6-4 ats without him. IMHO, play small if at all with the best player on the team out.

GL

[jcygts6]

any plays for tomarrow? I got portland and Clippers for tomarrow. Let me know if this is right

[owll52]

any plays for tomarrow? I got portland and Clippers for tomarrow. Let me know if this is right

Portland played last night, Clippers are a play at +6 or better, Griffin is out for the season so you might want to factor that in.