70% math plays 2009-10 tracking
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Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#176Comment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#177No plays tonightComment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#178Yes the Clippers in no way could be a loss last night, since they covered the +5...However depending on how you view injuries it doesn't necessarily mean it is Win...Seems like since the plays are based on opening lines, maning you would play the game immediately the line came out, the warmup injury does not void the bet...just a newbies take.
Now how do line movements affect plays? For example, if the opening Fave is a bet at -5 and the spread moves to -4.5, it is obviously still a play. If in the same scenario, the line moves from -5 to -5.5, and the math still says it is a play, is it still considered a play?Comment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#179i think he meant it was a "no play" with the injury, not a loss. but those that played it, won. so it's all good. but as far as counting toward the system, it was a "no play". but like someone else has previously mentioned, ignoring the injury filter may be something you can look to play the games outside the system at your own discretion.
bateman, either find the spreadsheet from the first post or so, or look on page 2 or 3 at some of the breakdowns of the formulas. meestermike did a few, and some others.
lets say team 1 (win% = .500) is playing at team 2 (win% = .750). the line is team1 +4 / team2 -4
better % team is selected team. (team 2)
take the difference:
750-500=250
divide by 20:
250/20=12.5
add 3 if playing at home/subtract 3 if playing away
12.5+3=15.5
then add spread of the selected team
15.5+(-4)=11.5
any final number over 10 is a play, a negative number means fade the selected team (play the opposite)
since a spread of -4.5 and -5 would still leave the final number >10, then the play is good up to -5.
-5.5 would be a no play. -16 would be a play the opposite side.
the use of opening lines is used just to keep track of the system.Comment -
MeestermikeSBR Sharp
- 11-21-06
- 329
#180The reason I treated it as a system loss was the fact that when I wagered, no injury was present. I could not void my bet at my book as I was not near a phone or computer.
The opening line of Mem -5 said play other side insofar as the system at that point was telling me. So I played LAC but in hindsight the system should be a win on LAC.
Sorry for the confusion.
System record should be 10-4 and not 9-5Comment -
thenry2289SBR High Roller
- 01-09-10
- 116
#182any plays for tomorrow??Comment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#183again, thanks Meestermike for keeping track!Comment -
SawyerSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-01-09
- 7761
#184Do you know its record for previous seasons? (2006-2007 etc)Comment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#186Sorry, I may have been unclear losturmarbles. I understand the math behind it and what deems a play and what doesn't. Simply put my question was...If an opening line of say -7 works out through the formula to be a no play, but throughout the day the line moves to -6.5 or -6 and mathematically goes over the number of 10....then this is a no play, is that correct? Because we are basing it on opening lines?
Again, I am not questioning the system itself, but it just seems that the number moving in your favor should be beneficial. However, do we just stick to opening numbers to make keeping a record easier or does this system preclude line movement for a reason. i.e.- my example from above....though the line moves down, the play is still a no play because of the opening line (Is this part of the formuala or a way to make keeping track easier?)
Thanks everyone for keeping track of this and sorry if I am confusing things, I am just trying to fully understand. BOL!Comment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#187Sorry, I may have been unclear losturmarbles. I understand the math behind it and what deems a play and what doesn't. Simply put my question was...If an opening line of say -7 works out through the formula to be a no play, but throughout the day the line moves to -6.5 or -6 and mathematically goes over the number of 10....then this is a no play, is that correct? Because we are basing it on opening lines?
Again, I am not questioning the system itself, but it just seems that the number moving in your favor should be beneficial. However, do we just stick to opening numbers to make keeping a record easier or does this system preclude line movement for a reason. i.e.- my example from above....though the line moves down, the play is still a no play because of the opening line (Is this part of the formuala or a way to make keeping track easier?)
Thanks everyone for keeping track of this and sorry if I am confusing things, I am just trying to fully understand. BOL!
my thoughts are if it becomes a play because the spread changed, then it should be a system play. that any team could be a system play given the right spread. the only exception to me is when the spread move helps it get under the "no spread greater than 9.5" filter. formula wise if it was a play and got filtered out by the >9.5 spread, and then the spread moves and the filter doesn't apply anymore, i think those plays have all lost this year.Comment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#188Suns +5 looks like a play - Scratch that -NO PLAYComment -
HoulihansTXBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-12-09
- 30566
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aoz1122SBR Hustler
- 11-13-09
- 84
#190Phoenix +5 IS NOT a play. You may want to check your math again.
Phoenix would need +6.5 in order to be a play mathematically.Comment -
HoulihansTXBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-12-09
- 30566
#192Thank GOd, b/c I never bet against the system.Comment -
og4667SBR MVP
- 09-17-09
- 2438
#193suns are also a JM B Bet tonight, that could be why the public is all over themComment -
CLASSIC ROCKSBR Wise Guy
- 07-23-09
- 574
#194I like the fact that there are not a whole lot of plays to this system!Comment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#195i guess that's up to you to decide. the system never says anything about using opening lines. however out of the few plays that opened at one number and were "no plays", but later the line moved where they would be considered system plays, have almost all lost.
my thoughts are if it becomes a play because the spread changed, then it should be a system play. that any team could be a system play given the right spread. the only exception to me is when the spread move helps it get under the "no spread greater than 9.5" filter. formula wise if it was a play and got filtered out by the >9.5 spread, and then the spread moves and the filter doesn't apply anymore, i think those plays have all lost this year.Comment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#196No plays tonight.Comment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#197losturmarbles,
Thanks for clearing things up...Let's make some moneyComment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#198No plays on either game tonightComment -
ChiSox5615SBR Hustler
- 01-15-10
- 63
#199Bulls look like a play tonightComment -
thenry2289SBR High Roller
- 01-09-10
- 116
#201Welt 446 do we have any plays for today???
I see chisox said the bulls today,...???Comment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#202The line opened at a pk in some places and bulls -1 in others...Either way, the math doesn't equate a play from what i can tell.Comment -
thenry2289SBR High Roller
- 01-09-10
- 116
#203Yea when I did it the math didn't workout...
Any others??Comment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#204No plays tonight. Everything that would qualify is ruled out by injury.Comment -
therber2Restricted User
- 12-22-08
- 3715
#205no play on the bulls. Close though. You guys ever get a close play, and play it small if there are other supporting factors for the pick? For another thread I know, but just curious.Comment -
Welt446+SBR High Roller
- 12-04-09
- 185
#206I've been keeping track of some of the plays that are close and they have a fairly good percentage (this is for numbers that fall at about 3 or under or 7 and above). It's 10-5 since I started keeping track but I haven't put any money on it yet.Comment -
ChiSox5615SBR Hustler
- 01-15-10
- 63
#207oh man, yea i'm a dumbass and added three instead of subtracting, I keep thinking its plus three on the road for some reason. My badComment -
PatrickBatemanSBR Sharp
- 03-29-08
- 367
#208Which ones are ruled out by injury?Comment -
JohnAnthonySBR Hall of Famer
- 04-30-09
- 5110
#209Took the Bulls anyway"I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."
- D.H. LawrenceComment
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