70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

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  • Welt446+
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-04-09
    • 185

    #176
    Originally posted by barts185
    I'm not sure how this would be a loss.

    1) There was an injury, so I thought it would be a no play. Even though based on opening lines, I'm presuming (correct me if I'm wrong) that if injury information comes out during the day, the correct thing to do would be to get off the game. Or is it just if the injury information is known overnight?


    2) You had to have won your bet. The Clippers only lost by 2. The line was never that low.


    So I could understand either a no play or a win, but not sure why it would count as a loss and would appreciate the explanation of why it would count as a loss.

    Thanks,
    Bart
    I concur
    Comment
    • Welt446+
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-04-09
      • 185

      #177
      No plays tonight
      Comment
      • PatrickBateman
        SBR Sharp
        • 03-29-08
        • 367

        #178
        Yes the Clippers in no way could be a loss last night, since they covered the +5...However depending on how you view injuries it doesn't necessarily mean it is Win...Seems like since the plays are based on opening lines, maning you would play the game immediately the line came out, the warmup injury does not void the bet...just a newbies take.

        Now how do line movements affect plays? For example, if the opening Fave is a bet at -5 and the spread moves to -4.5, it is obviously still a play. If in the same scenario, the line moves from -5 to -5.5, and the math still says it is a play, is it still considered a play?
        Comment
        • losturmarbles
          SBR MVP
          • 07-01-08
          • 4604

          #179
          i think he meant it was a "no play" with the injury, not a loss. but those that played it, won. so it's all good. but as far as counting toward the system, it was a "no play". but like someone else has previously mentioned, ignoring the injury filter may be something you can look to play the games outside the system at your own discretion.

          bateman, either find the spreadsheet from the first post or so, or look on page 2 or 3 at some of the breakdowns of the formulas. meestermike did a few, and some others.

          lets say team 1 (win% = .500) is playing at team 2 (win% = .750). the line is team1 +4 / team2 -4

          better % team is selected team. (team 2)
          take the difference:
          750-500=250
          divide by 20:
          250/20=12.5
          add 3 if playing at home/subtract 3 if playing away
          12.5+3=15.5
          then add spread of the selected team
          15.5+(-4)=11.5

          any final number over 10 is a play, a negative number means fade the selected team (play the opposite)

          since a spread of -4.5 and -5 would still leave the final number >10, then the play is good up to -5.

          -5.5 would be a no play. -16 would be a play the opposite side.

          the use of opening lines is used just to keep track of the system.
          Comment
          • Meestermike
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-21-06
            • 329

            #180
            The reason I treated it as a system loss was the fact that when I wagered, no injury was present. I could not void my bet at my book as I was not near a phone or computer.

            The opening line of Mem -5 said play other side insofar as the system at that point was telling me. So I played LAC but in hindsight the system should be a win on LAC.

            Sorry for the confusion.

            System record should be 10-4 and not 9-5
            Comment
            • bpw6
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-24-09
              • 235

              #181
              Originally posted by bustabook
              didn't you have another thread with this same system? i remember seeing something pretty recently about a 70% system.

              good stuff though, thanks.
              good stuff~
              Comment
              • thenry2289
                SBR High Roller
                • 01-09-10
                • 116

                #182
                any plays for tomorrow??
                Comment
                • mundane
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-25-08
                  • 3592

                  #183
                  again, thanks Meestermike for keeping track!
                  Comment
                  • Sawyer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-01-09
                    • 7761

                    #184
                    Do you know its record for previous seasons? (2006-2007 etc)
                    Comment
                    • Vesuvius
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-19-08
                      • 3886

                      #185
                      Originally posted by Sawyer
                      Do you know its record for previous seasons? (2006-2007 etc)
                      Hit about 70% last season.

                      -----

                      1/14 No Plays Tonight
                      Comment
                      • PatrickBateman
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-29-08
                        • 367

                        #186
                        Sorry, I may have been unclear losturmarbles. I understand the math behind it and what deems a play and what doesn't. Simply put my question was...If an opening line of say -7 works out through the formula to be a no play, but throughout the day the line moves to -6.5 or -6 and mathematically goes over the number of 10....then this is a no play, is that correct? Because we are basing it on opening lines?

                        Again, I am not questioning the system itself, but it just seems that the number moving in your favor should be beneficial. However, do we just stick to opening numbers to make keeping a record easier or does this system preclude line movement for a reason. i.e.- my example from above....though the line moves down, the play is still a no play because of the opening line (Is this part of the formuala or a way to make keeping track easier?)

                        Thanks everyone for keeping track of this and sorry if I am confusing things, I am just trying to fully understand. BOL!
                        Comment
                        • losturmarbles
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-01-08
                          • 4604

                          #187
                          Originally posted by PatrickBateman
                          Sorry, I may have been unclear losturmarbles. I understand the math behind it and what deems a play and what doesn't. Simply put my question was...If an opening line of say -7 works out through the formula to be a no play, but throughout the day the line moves to -6.5 or -6 and mathematically goes over the number of 10....then this is a no play, is that correct? Because we are basing it on opening lines?

                          Again, I am not questioning the system itself, but it just seems that the number moving in your favor should be beneficial. However, do we just stick to opening numbers to make keeping a record easier or does this system preclude line movement for a reason. i.e.- my example from above....though the line moves down, the play is still a no play because of the opening line (Is this part of the formuala or a way to make keeping track easier?)

                          Thanks everyone for keeping track of this and sorry if I am confusing things, I am just trying to fully understand. BOL!
                          i guess that's up to you to decide. the system never says anything about using opening lines. however out of the few plays that opened at one number and were "no plays", but later the line moved where they would be considered system plays, have almost all lost.
                          my thoughts are if it becomes a play because the spread changed, then it should be a system play. that any team could be a system play given the right spread. the only exception to me is when the spread move helps it get under the "no spread greater than 9.5" filter. formula wise if it was a play and got filtered out by the >9.5 spread, and then the spread moves and the filter doesn't apply anymore, i think those plays have all lost this year.
                          Comment
                          • Welt446+
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-04-09
                            • 185

                            #188
                            Suns +5 looks like a play - Scratch that -NO PLAY
                            Comment
                            • HoulihansTX
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 02-12-09
                              • 30566

                              #189
                              Originally posted by Welt446+
                              Suns +5 looks like a play
                              I hope not, b/c I laid the mutha load on the Hawks today. Suns are a publicly backed dog today though, and the line went back up to -5. You know what they say about publicly backed DOGS....
                              Comment
                              • aoz1122
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 11-13-09
                                • 84

                                #190
                                Phoenix +5 IS NOT a play. You may want to check your math again.

                                Phoenix would need +6.5 in order to be a play mathematically.
                                Comment
                                • Welt446+
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-04-09
                                  • 185

                                  #191
                                  Originally posted by aoz1122
                                  Phoenix +5 IS NOT a play. You may want to check your math again.

                                  Phoenix would need +6.5 in order to be a play mathematically.
                                  Yeah, you're right. I took away 3 rather than adding 3 for the Hawks.

                                  Sorry
                                  Comment
                                  • HoulihansTX
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-12-09
                                    • 30566

                                    #192
                                    Thank GOd, b/c I never bet against the system.
                                    Comment
                                    • og4667
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-17-09
                                      • 2438

                                      #193
                                      suns are also a JM B Bet tonight, that could be why the public is all over them
                                      Comment
                                      • CLASSIC ROCK
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 07-23-09
                                        • 574

                                        #194
                                        I like the fact that there are not a whole lot of plays to this system!
                                        Comment
                                        • mundane
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-25-08
                                          • 3592

                                          #195
                                          Originally posted by losturmarbles
                                          i guess that's up to you to decide. the system never says anything about using opening lines. however out of the few plays that opened at one number and were "no plays", but later the line moved where they would be considered system plays, have almost all lost.
                                          my thoughts are if it becomes a play because the spread changed, then it should be a system play. that any team could be a system play given the right spread. the only exception to me is when the spread move helps it get under the "no spread greater than 9.5" filter. formula wise if it was a play and got filtered out by the >9.5 spread, and then the spread moves and the filter doesn't apply anymore, i think those plays have all lost this year.
                                          very good point! thanks losturmarbles!
                                          Comment
                                          • Welt446+
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 12-04-09
                                            • 185

                                            #196
                                            No plays tonight.
                                            Comment
                                            • PatrickBateman
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 03-29-08
                                              • 367

                                              #197
                                              losturmarbles,

                                              Thanks for clearing things up...Let's make some money
                                              Comment
                                              • Welt446+
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-04-09
                                                • 185

                                                #198
                                                No plays on either game tonight
                                                Comment
                                                • ChiSox5615
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 01-15-10
                                                  • 63

                                                  #199
                                                  Bulls look like a play tonight
                                                  Comment
                                                  • barts185
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                    • 815

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by ChiSox5615
                                                    Bulls look like a play tonight
                                                    I don't think that the Bulls are a play.

                                                    474 vs. 289
                                                    difference 185
                                                    divide by 20 9.25
                                                    Subtract 3 because they are the road team 6.25


                                                    Maybe you added 3 instead of subtracted 3?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • thenry2289
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 01-09-10
                                                      • 116

                                                      #201
                                                      Welt 446 do we have any plays for today???

                                                      I see chisox said the bulls today,...???
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PatrickBateman
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 03-29-08
                                                        • 367

                                                        #202
                                                        The line opened at a pk in some places and bulls -1 in others...Either way, the math doesn't equate a play from what i can tell.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • thenry2289
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 01-09-10
                                                          • 116

                                                          #203
                                                          Yea when I did it the math didn't workout...

                                                          Any others??
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Welt446+
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-04-09
                                                            • 185

                                                            #204
                                                            No plays tonight. Everything that would qualify is ruled out by injury.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • therber2
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 12-22-08
                                                              • 3715

                                                              #205
                                                              no play on the bulls. Close though. You guys ever get a close play, and play it small if there are other supporting factors for the pick? For another thread I know, but just curious.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Welt446+
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-04-09
                                                                • 185

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by therber2
                                                                no play on the bulls. Close though. You guys ever get a close play, and play it small if there are other supporting factors for the pick? For another thread I know, but just curious.
                                                                I've been keeping track of some of the plays that are close and they have a fairly good percentage (this is for numbers that fall at about 3 or under or 7 and above). It's 10-5 since I started keeping track but I haven't put any money on it yet.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ChiSox5615
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 01-15-10
                                                                  • 63

                                                                  #207
                                                                  oh man, yea i'm a dumbass and added three instead of subtracting, I keep thinking its plus three on the road for some reason. My bad
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • PatrickBateman
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 03-29-08
                                                                    • 367

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Which ones are ruled out by injury?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JohnAnthony
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-30-09
                                                                      • 5110

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Took the Bulls anyway
                                                                      "I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."

                                                                      - D.H. Lawrence
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ChiSox5615
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 01-15-10
                                                                        • 63

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by JohnAnthony
                                                                        Took the Bulls anyway

                                                                        me too and regretting it now, I should have known they wouldn't win on the West Coast
                                                                        Comment
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