Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

**miczz14** · 12-11-13, 08:39 AM

why philly fade? they're not that bad ATS

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 10:00 AM

Well, they have lost 10 orf their last 13 ATS and play 3 of the next 4 on the road and have generally sucked for a few weeks. The teams that they play are not great except for Portland so the spread will not be artifically high.

In the lst 10 games they are the worst team in the NBA.

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 10:30 AM

NOTE - I added Oklahoma City as an "A" pick in the experimental system

since they won last night i was not sure they would continue to be the best team in the NBA in the last 10 games. It SEEMED like they would but Indiana and Portland are pretty hot.

**raangeman** · 12-11-13, 12:39 PM

G1200- Thanks for the info..Understanding more and more as you go.. Still would like to know when to Fade or Follow a team (if possible).. I had OKC -4 last night (followed you. thanks)...

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 01:40 PM

Oh maybe I don't understand. Exactly. If it says,fade play against the team otherwise play the team. The PLAY team is always highlighted.

Feel free to PM me with any questions but I've found if someone has a question he/she is probably not the only one.

**raangeman** · 12-11-13, 02:23 PM

Grinder-- Tried to PM you.. Said I had to have 20 post and it had to go to the staff.. You may or may not get the message... My question from above was posted incorrectly.. I know the HIGHLIGHTED team is the one to play.. What I was wanting to know is when to fade a team or play the team.. Example-- Last night you had OKC and tonight you have OKC... What would make OKC a "Fade" tonight or any of the other teams that you have as a "Fade".. Is, in the case of OKC tonight, you think they will cover the 6 based on a last 5 or 10 game performance or is it that they will more than likely cover at least 1 of the next 4.. Just wanting to know how I would decide when to "fade" a team or to "play" that team ...

**Mako-SBR** · 12-11-13, 03:20 PM

So New Orleans is the system's very first H3 "C" bet of the season...interesting.

Keep up the good work Grinder, appreciated by many.

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 07:27 PM

Mako - I noticed that this afternoon.

raangeman - there are 4 systems all working here so it's a tough call and SOMETIMES the systems work against each other. It's happened a few times this year where we basically just watch the battle and play the loser when the dust settles.

The only Odd system is the experimental system where I'm looking at the RPI of teams and looking at their upcoming schedule. (more on that later).

Otherwise certain teams, when they have played an overtime game we fade Or chase. I've compiled 11 years of data on every team and some are better then others in certain situations. I've been doing a rolling average of 10 years and picking the teams that do well. THIS could be totally opposite of what I SHOULD be doing. It's a crap shoot.

I took a system the above systems that failed last year by another person and have tweaked it to what I HOPE will have better results as I saw flaws in the old ways.

I'm a contrairian, I like going against the herd but here I seem to be a chaser WHICH is actually going against the herd as I believe most "smart" people are contrairians now in NBA gambling! (Did that make any sense?).

So in the OKC example - the experimental system will sort of stick with a team for a while. I can't see any of the other systems switching from a fade to a chase overnight.

I'll explain the experimental system (my baby) later tonight which is 100% my idea. I have some cool numbers to post on that one!

**imotiv8** · 12-11-13, 09:05 PM

is the experimental a 3 game chase?

**bgilic** · 12-11-13, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by imotiv8

is the experimental a 3 game chase?

I think they are 4 game chase but I could be wrong. Grinder?

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 09:37 PM

Reference Post #256

The Systems

S1 Whenever the below teams have a winning or losing streak of 3 games ATS start the 4 game chase following that streak.

S1 Streak - 10 year totals
PLAY	Fade
Brooklyn 55-1	Brooklyn 63-1
Cleveland 63-1	Mia 53-1
Charlotte 42-0	LAL 81-2
Orlando 57-1	N.O. 54-1
Golden St 55-1	Okla 44-1
Port 50-1	Port 51-1
Utah 59-0

H3 - Whenever a team starts a home or road trip of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4 game chase in the first game being played at home - ALL Teams

O4 -Whenever a team has an OT game start the 4 game chase OR fade using the following teams.

O4 Overtime with 10 year records
Play	Fade
Boston 48-0	Toronto 56-1
NYKnicks 54-1	Miami 57-0
Brooklyn 49-1	Atl 56-0
Phoenix 39-0	LAClippers 44-0
Dallas 45-0	Sac 52-0
N.O. 49-1
Portland 55-1

Grinders Experimental System

I use RPI* to determine the best and worst teams, then look at upcoming schedule, looking at my tea leaves, tossing a 13 sided die and picking a split card I make a wise and informed decision to chase or fade.

*RPI looks at Wins and losses giving more and less points to road and home wins and losses, then looks at opposing teams W/L .Pct AND looks at THEIR opponents W/L .Pct AND looks at strength of schedule. I use a 10 game non balanced algorithm.

The numbers as of 12/10/13 H3+S1+O4 = +28.04 units

H3	W	L	S1	Chase		S1	Fade		O4	total
A	8	6	A	4	5	A	2	3	A	15	13
B	5	1	B	4	1	B	1	2	B	5	7
C	0	0	C	1	0	C	1	0	C	4	3
D	0	0	D			D			D	2	1

Experimental System +31.00units

	Chase		Fade
	W	L	W	L
A	9	7	10	4	20	11
B	5	2	5	0	10	2
C	2	0			2	0
D

WAGERING! The following wagering guidelines are used - this is a HIGH risk, high reward system. Bet accordingly and you will not know what stress really is until you have a "D" game.

Gm	Risk	Win
A	1.10units	1.00
B	2.31	2.10
C	4.85	4.41
D	10.19	9.26

**Grinder12000** · 12-11-13, 11:03 PM

12/12/13 50W-42L +33.45u

Results
49C H3 New Orleans 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
56B O4 sac fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
57A H3 Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
experimental 33-14 +33.00u
"B" Milwaukee fade San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
"A" Philly fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSS
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Thursday
No Games
Friday's known games
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 **
experimental
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00
"B" Philly fade Toronto2.31 to win 2.1

** Did I miss a N.O O4 series? They played OT on 12/02/13. hmmmm

**bgilic** · 12-11-13, 11:12 PM

Nice to see that C game close today. We will need all the funds for Wallco's NHL upcoming C games.

**Jeremylynn** · 12-12-13, 09:12 AM

Ok I used to bet with a kiss system, very profitable.....I like what you have going here and I want to get on it Friday. Just a quick question is both systems added together up over 30 units or both seperately over 30 units to make this thread over 60 unit?

**Afterimage** · 12-12-13, 10:29 AM

Ridiculously fun so far! May not last, but for now we're rollin'!!!

**Grinder12000** · 12-12-13, 11:45 AM

Jeremylynn - both are separate. I actually have more confidence in the experimental as I'm not locked into rules. I've been running the Ex system day by day using 2012 data with the same "rules" or "feelings" as I'm using this year and learning somethings along the way which I have been looking for this year. My concerns are not winning which is easy, but how NOT to lose.

Afterimage - yea - I agree 100% on your entire sentence.

I just did a quick number crunch and at this rate it truly is ridiculous. OH - 600 picks in a year. LOL We're looking at a little more then then 300units ! we might slow down a little! :-)

**on3** · 12-12-13, 02:13 PM

glad i jumped on this yesterday. will follow.

**KC Needs Hockey** · 12-12-13, 09:42 PM

I've been in on ground floor and really happy with results as with all chases though there are going to be some pains.

**Grinder12000** · 12-12-13, 11:46 PM

12/13/13
50-42 +33.45u
New Experimental 33-14 +33.00u

I feel like I was on a vacation LOL

Friday
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00
59A S1 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
EX "B" Philly fade Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10
EX "A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
EX "A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

Should be it. I'll know for sure in the morning.

Saturday's knowns

60A H3 Miami

**bgilic** · 12-12-13, 11:52 PM

I was starting to get worried Grinder.

Do you keep series number for experimental games or just wing it

Have to heard about the sign language interpreter at Nelson Mandela's funeral was fake. The deaf community will never hear the end of this story.

**raangeman** · 12-13-13, 06:51 AM

Grinder-- In post 256 S1, Brooklyn has covered 3 straight against the spread... You have both Play and Fade them.. Both have been good.. So tonight's game in Detroit you have them as a PLAY.. I'm thinking we could go either way according to the Stats.. Am I correct? "UPON FURTHER REVIEW" I now know why they are a PLAY.. Detroit has lost 3 in a row against the spread and Detroit is not one the teams listed as a play after this happens... Learning more as I go...

Thanks for everything you are doing.. Keep up the good work..

**Grinder12000** · 12-13-13, 07:16 AM

raangeman - if Brook had lost 3 in a row we would be fading, since they won 3 in a row we are chasing.

bgilic - yea winging it - do you guys want numbers? does it help?

On a funny serious note - my daughters kids are learning sign language as one kid has Down Syndrome (what an amazing affliction that really is) so I'm forced to watch signing DVDs at times. I saw that guy and thought it was some odd signing but what do I know.

Down Syndrome is amazing because people with DS KNOW they are not like others but wish they were. Their biggest problem is that they can not communicate so many are learning to sign which is much easier. I knew nothing about DS but now I will go out of my way to be friends with them as they want to be liked. They know they are odd and are embarrassed. Make a friend with a person with DS and they will be your unconditional friend for life.

**Want2Win** · 12-13-13, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

raangeman - if Brook had lost 3 in a row we would be fading, since they won 3 in a row we are chasing.

bgilic - yea winging it - do you guys want numbers? does it help?

On a funny serious note - my daughters kids are learning sign language as one kid has Down Syndrome (what an amazing affliction that really is) so I'm forced to watch signing DVDs at times. I saw that guy and thought it was some odd signing but what do I know.

Down Syndrome is amazing because people with DS KNOW they are not like others but wish they were. Their biggest problem is that they can not communicate so many are learning to sign which is much easier. I knew nothing about DS but now I will go out of my way to be friends with them as they want to be liked. They know they are odd and are embarrassed. Make a friend with a person with DS and they will be your unconditional friend for life.

My close friend's boy is DS and you are so right Grinder! They are great kids!

**Grinder12000** · 12-13-13, 11:50 AM

Just finished backtesting the 2012 Experimental system (which is really not an experment as I've been playing it for a while now).

Results are very encouraging. There were 5 "D" game losses but 4 of those all had the same characteristics. Fading teams playing 3 out of 4 at home. Only 1 "D" loss was "unforced" and that was fading a team playing ALL 4 games on the road.

Even WITH the 5 "D" game losses the system won 49 units. If I took out the plays where fading a team playing 3 of 4 at home I would NOT lose those 73.8 units but not sure how many chases I would NOT play. Probably 10? 15? So even taking out 20 chases that would give me 100 units. IN THEORY!! :-)

I guess we will find out this year.

**Jeremylynn** · 12-13-13, 12:08 PM

Sounds great grinder....you got me pumped, hope everything goes well

**LakeShow** · 12-13-13, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Just finished backtesting the 2012 Experimental system (which is really not an experment as I've been playing it for a while now).

Results are very encouraging. There were 5 "D" game losses but 4 of those all had the same characteristics. Fading teams playing 3 out of 4 at home. Only 1 "D" loss was "unforced" and that was fading a team playing ALL 4 games on the road.

Even WITH the 5 "D" game losses the system won 49 units. If I took out the plays where fading a team playing 3 of 4 at home I would NOT lose those 73.8 units but not sure how many chases I would NOT play. Probably 10? 15? So even taking out 20 chases that would give me 100 units. IN THEORY!! :-)

I guess we will find out this year.

Are you saying 4 of the 5 D losses occurred with S1 system where we faded when 3 of 4 games were home and chased when 3 of 4 games were away games?
thanks

**Mako-SBR** · 12-13-13, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by LakeShow

Are you saying 4 of the 5 D losses occurred with S1 system where we faded when 3 of 4 games were home and chased when 3 of 4 games were away games?
thanks

"experimental system", not S1.

**Grinder12000** · 12-13-13, 07:32 PM

Mako is correct - that was in back testing my EX system. I'm now going through, day by day 2010/2011. I actually like the EX over the original systems, more control.

**bgilic** · 12-13-13, 07:45 PM

Grinder - Numbering your experimental picks as series would be great for tracking purposes.

DS people and kids especially are some of the nicest and genuine people on the face of this earth. If the rest of us could be half as kind and gentle as they are the world would be a nicer place.

**Grinder12000** · 12-13-13, 08:01 PM

AND YOU GET A POINT. LOL. Inside joke

**bgilic** · 12-13-13, 08:15 PM

**bgilic** · 12-13-13, 10:51 PM

Great night over all. Nice work as always Grinder it is much appreciated. Did you go with Edmonton in NHL system? I pulled out, didn't have the guts.

**Grinder12000** · 12-13-13, 11:41 PM

12/14/13
S1,H3,O4 = 53-42 +37.55u
EX = 35-15 +35.00u
Tot 72.55u

results
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
59A S1 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
EX "B" Philly fade Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
EX "A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
EX "A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

Saturday
60A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
61A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
62A S1 LAL fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
36A EX Philly fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00

*** = best thing to do is skip playing the game and play the loser when the dust settles - we get a win AND a loss but don't pay the juice. We will make up for the winning unit with betting 2.31 on the losing team.

bgilic - yea, lost a bundle but was up so it's not THAT painful. I didn't lose the last C bet so it evens out! Wallco was due . . sadly.

**KC Needs Hockey** · 12-13-13, 11:48 PM

Hell of night this thread made the pounding of edmonton a lot more tolerable. Just some background on me, I am definitely a rage bettor/gambler. I have poor money management I'll get up something sick like 40-50 units and then lose a big bet or something and then chain bet to try and make it up. A common formula is lose a 20 unit bet and then lay 20-30 units on something outside of the system when that loses bet it all and bam not only have I lost all the units but lost the money I put in. Even though I took a loss tonight seeing all the W's on the NBA side has made me not feel like I need to go out get crazy so from a degenerate THANK YOU SOOOOO MUCH.

**CheeseHead** · 12-14-13, 03:59 AM

Hey Grinder. Good to see you made something out of that losing system last year. Lost a ton of money on it but you always had ideas of making it profitable. What do your RPI/Power Rankings look like right now? How often do you update those?

You think it's too late to join the party in here or you pretty confident there are plenty of units to win yet? Good luck man.