MrXYZ's NRL thread

That Guy · 07-08-12, 02:28 AM

Good hit on the OVER... Great to cash it before the game is over!
Thought Eels defence would have fired up for this game.

MrXYZ · 07-08-12, 06:22 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

Good hit on the OVER... Great to cash it before the game is over!
Thought Eels defence would have fired up for this game.

Thanks TG. I was expecting to sweat this one out as Parra are usually at their best against Manly. The Wolfman scoring 4 tries certainly helped!

They play the Bulldogs next week and the books will most likely offer 42.5 or even 44.5.

MrXYZ · 07-09-12, 03:59 AM

CRONULLA SHARKS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total UNDER 40.5 @2.00 x0.5

Just a small action play on the under. I might have a play at half time as well.

sportsguy04 · 07-09-12, 04:03 AM

Damn, you vs. that guy tonight.

sportsguy04 · 07-09-12, 04:49 AM

Looks like your golden.

MrXYZ · 07-09-12, 05:00 AM

Gonna try and middle this one. Got nothing to lose so I'm giving it a shot. This game could erupt in the second half.

Half time play.
Game Total OVER 34.0 @1.90 x0.5

MrXYZ · 07-09-12, 05:07 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Looks like your golden.

Had some luck go my way so far, it should be 12-10 with some of the chances they've bombed.

sportsguy04 · 07-09-12, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Had some luck go my way so far, it should be 12-10 with some of the chances they've bombed.

Im on the over myself. Thought this was going to sail over after the first 10 minutes.

Coopertrooper · 07-09-12, 05:19 AM

Don't watch all that much NRL, but this one is an absolute shocker. No luck for the over here, Roosters are very, very ordinary!

MrXYZ · 07-12-12, 09:08 PM

Round 19
Friday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

The books have set this one fairly high but the Bulldogs could cash it by themselves. Good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-13-12, 06:49 AM

Lol. Final score 32-12.

MrXYZ · 07-13-12, 09:37 PM

Saturday
WESTS TIGERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.85 x2.5

With the Panthers in disarray and the Tigers set to hit back after 3 straight losses, this should be a tryfest. Farrah's return is a bonus, though we may need a Panthers try to get this one over the line.

I'm rolling with 2.5 units as I have it set at 44.5. Good luck today.

MrXYZ · 07-14-12, 01:32 AM

Sportsbet still has 42.5, meanwhile TAB shows 44.5 & Centrebet continues to screw NRL punters, posting 45.5.

MrXYZ · 07-14-12, 08:07 AM

Cash that winner!!!

hedgejob · 07-14-12, 08:58 AM

MrXYZ · 07-14-12, 11:11 PM

Sunday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total over 37.5 @2.00 x1

Looking at these two teams the trend favours the under but I'm seeing the real possibility of a higher scoring game than expected. So I'm fading the public and rolling in the opposite direction. It's worth a shot, however as always manage your risk accordingly.

Good luck today.

MrXYZ · 07-14-12, 11:17 PM

I found it @2.00 at Sportsbet.

MrXYZ · 07-15-12, 01:02 AM

It's halftime and Dragons lead 12-4. Got this one wrong, sorry guys. If not for Morris running away for that spectacular try it would be even worse. I'm buying out. It could backfire if the total ends up at 36.

Game Total UNDER 35.5@1.90 x1

MrXYZ · 07-15-12, 01:23 AM

12-10. It's turning into a grind to the finish type game.

MrXYZ · 07-15-12, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 19
Friday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

Saturday
WESTS TIGERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.85 x2.5

Sunday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total over 37.5 @2.00 x1

Game Total UNDER 35.5@1.90 x1(a buy out play at half time, see above)

A modest profit for the round but it's been a frustrating last 2 weeks as I've struggled to break out past 25 units. I've been cashing overs all season as there's been plenty of value so far but the books have started to just their numbers. Look at the Raiders/Titans game at 46.5. Under was the play but it was a scorefest.

My goal is 30 units and I'm almost there but the NRL has entered that tough stretch between the end of Origin and the start of the Finals when it buries punters and kills bankrolls. It might a good idea to take some time off.

Round 19: 2-2 +1.02 units $51
2012 NRL season record: 41-40 +27.605 units $1380.25 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 07-15-12, 04:33 AM

Monday Night Football
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

Another high total but this game could explode for 50+ points. Souths should have no trouble against the Roosters and I'm expecting the highest scoring game of the round.
This could be my last NRL play for a while so let's cash one more winner. Tail or fade, good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-16-12, 06:05 AM

12 points in 2 minutes to cash the over! what an amazing finish by the Bunnies!

MrXYZ · 07-17-12, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Monday Night Football
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

Souths win 24-22 & cash the over in style. Feels good to be on the right side of a crazy NRL finish.

This was the low scoring round that had always been just around the corner. It ended the easy run of overs and it'll be interesting to see what the books come up with for round 20.

1-0 +0.90 units $45
2012 NRL season record: 42-40 +28.505 units $1425.25 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 07-20-12, 04:41 AM

Round 20
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game total OVER 38.5 @1.95 x0.5

Small play, good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-20-12, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 20
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game total OVER 38.5 @1.95 x0.5

Got this one wrong. Barba's try saving tackles and that disallowed Bulldogs effort late in the game killed any chances of the over.

0-1 -0.50 units -$25
2012 NRL season record: 42-41 +28.005 units $1400.25 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 07-21-12, 04:32 AM

SOUTH SYDNEY vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
Game Total UNDER 38.0 @1.90 x1

MrXYZ · 07-21-12, 04:50 AM

10-0 Souths. F**k. Not looking good.

MrXYZ · 07-21-12, 09:07 PM

Favourites have been getting killed this round, with Titans, Parra and The Knights involved in major upsets. I might have a play on the Sharks game. Even though my model says this one goes under I am wary of the Raiders terrible defense.

The other game is too close to call, for an action play I'd take the Panthers to beat the Roosters.

MrXYZ · 07-21-12, 10:18 PM

Dediced to go with my plays, here they are:

CRONULLA SHARKS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total UNDER 41.5 @1.90 x1.5

PENRITH PANTHERS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
PANTHERS ML @1.91 x1

Good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-22-12, 03:51 AM

CASH 'EM BOTH!!! THAT RAIDERS/SHARKS GAME UNDER IS MY FAVOURITE WINNER OF THE YEAR!

Sol · 07-22-12, 05:19 AM

Well done buddy. Absolutely stunned the under hit. Helped to turn my weekend around a bit.

MrXYZ · 07-23-12, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by Sol

Well done buddy. Absolutely stunned the under hit. Helped to turn my weekend around a bit.

Thanks Sol. Felt good to bank that one! I re-watched the second half and that disallowed Canberra try probably saved us. Ref called a forward pass but it looked fair.

hawley · 07-23-12, 04:58 AM

I had the over, didn't see the game but did read commentary that Carney missed an absolute sitter of a conversion.

MrXYZ · 07-23-12, 05:01 AM

Halftime Live Play
NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total OVER 54.5 @1.88 x1

MrXYZ · 07-23-12, 05:05 AM

Most books have it at 55.5. Went with Centrebet's 54.5. Though I don't think it matters as this game could light up for 60+. I'm expecting 2 tries in the last 10 minutes.