MrXYZ's NRL thread

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  • MrXYZ
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-11
    • 2342

    #526
    NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs WESTS TIGERS

    It's MNF so I laid off this one, but might have a small live play. The Knights rebounded from another terrible start to lead at half time! They could upset here.
    Comment
    • MrXYZ
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-11
      • 2342

      #527
      Game Total OVER 51.5 @1.88 x1.5
      Comment
      • MrXYZ
        SBR MVP
        • 02-18-11
        • 2342

        #528
        Originally posted by MrXYZ
        Game Total OVER 51.5 @1.88 x1.5
        Huge upset by the Knights, winning 38-20 in a typical MNF game. They finally put together a solid effort. Their next game is against Parra so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Meanwhile the Tigers get a bye and plenty of time to think about losing 2 games in a row against inferior teams.

        Unless something stands out, I will most likely pass on round 17 & return for an Origin 3 play. Good luck till then.

        1-0 1.32 units $66
        2012 NRL season record: 31-33 +24.275 units $1213.75 Unit size is $50.
        Comment
        • MrXYZ
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-11
          • 2342

          #529
          Round 17
          Saturday
          NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
          Game Total OVER 39.5 @1.90 x2

          Both teams lack the discipline to play the grind-out footy that many are expecting to see tonight. With 2 of the worst NRL defenses on display, we'll need players to hold onto the ball in attack to cash the over.

          As far as picking a side, the line at -2.0 is a trap, strictly for action punters and no play is my advice.
          Good luck.
          Comment
          • MrXYZ
            SBR MVP
            • 02-18-11
            • 2342

            #530
            Sunday
            SOUTHS vs PENRITH
            Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1


            Comment
            • baskets
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-24-11
              • 11691

              #531
              Originally posted by MrXYZ
              Sunday
              SOUTHS vs PENRITH
              Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1


              oh fukk me. I'm on the under.

              20 minutes and not one point.... now 14-12 at 42"

              any chance these fukkbags put up 18 or less in the remaining time? I think it's virtually impossible
              Comment
              • baskets
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-24-11
                • 11691

                #532
                20-12 at 59'
                Comment
                • baskets
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-24-11
                  • 11691

                  #533
                  26-12 , 65"

                  not a chance the under holds. congrats on your win


                  the problem was Rabs giving up 2 tries to the Panthers
                  Comment
                  • baskets
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-24-11
                    • 11691

                    #534
                    32-12 , 71"

                    another bullshit try


                    right on 44

                    going to get fukked in the ass in this one
                    Comment
                    • baskets
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-24-11
                      • 11691

                      #535
                      wow

                      they called a try back b/c of a penalty.... at 75'

                      so it sits on 44


                      tick tock.
                      Comment
                      • baskets
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-24-11
                        • 11691

                        #536
                        lol, fukk me

                        try in the 79th minute

                        had to fukking rub it in


                        fukk my luck
                        Comment
                        • MrXYZ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-11
                          • 2342

                          #537
                          Tough beat baskets, the over was dead after the disallowed try & I was kicking myself for making that play. Then Merritt somehow twisted his arm to ground the ball right on the line. Just unbelievable.
                          Comment
                          • baskets
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-24-11
                            • 11691

                            #538
                            congrats to you. didn't mean to root against you in your thread... I just needed that under.
                            Comment
                            • That Guy
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 01-13-12
                              • 973

                              #539
                              Originally posted by baskets
                              congrats to you. didn't mean to root against you in your thread... I just needed that under.
                              I was like that with the Warriors vs Cowboys UNDER... sometimes you wish it'd just be over in the first 40 and not dragged out to give false hope..
                              Comment
                              • MrXYZ
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-18-11
                                • 2342

                                #540
                                Monday Night Football
                                ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                                DRAGONS -4.0 @1.91 x1
                                Game Total UNDER 37.5 @1.90 x2


                                In what is probably the most bizarre stat in the NRL, the Dragons have lost in Canberra for 12 straight years. In last year's game they were set for an easy win... before the Raiders staged an epic comeback to level the game with time running out. Soward slotted a field goal to seal victory, only for Gasnier's fumble off a short kick-off leading to a Dugan try. I remember this game vividly because it killed a $30 parlay that would've netted me over $1k.

                                The two teams meet again, with Dragons' offensive problems and supernatural way in which they keep losing in the nation's capital has punters hitting the Raiders line hard. But they're still amongst the NRL's worst teams and a desperate St George should keep their top 8 hopes alive. Also taking the under which is is great value. have it set at 32.5 making it worth the extra risk for 2 units.
                                Comment
                                • MrXYZ
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-18-11
                                  • 2342

                                  #541
                                  Good luck tonight. Remember it's MNF and anything could happen so manage your risk accordingly.
                                  Comment
                                  • MrXYZ
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-18-11
                                    • 2342

                                    #542
                                    For f**k's sake, 2 tries in 10 minutes.

                                    Looking down the barrel of a 3 unit burial & might have to live bet myself out of this mess.
                                    Comment
                                    • MrXYZ
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-18-11
                                      • 2342

                                      #543
                                      Live bet
                                      Under 42 @1.88 x2
                                      Comment
                                      • sportsguy04
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-21-08
                                        • 11885

                                        #544
                                        Defenses showed up 2nd half.
                                        Comment
                                        • sweepem
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 04-26-11
                                          • 459

                                          #545


                                          first and last time i played a under.
                                          Comment
                                          • MrXYZ
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-18-11
                                            • 2342

                                            #546
                                            What a joke. These clowns threw away the game again.
                                            Comment
                                            • MrXYZ
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-18-11
                                              • 2342

                                              #547
                                              Not much you can do when St George lets in 2 tries in 2 minutes, then kick you in the nuts by falling apart in defense instead of running out the clock.


                                              Round 17
                                              2-3 -2.34 units
                                              -
                                              $117
                                              2012 NRL season record: 33-36 +21.935 units $1096.75 Unit size is $50.
                                              Comment
                                              • The Bet Master
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-29-10
                                                • 2665

                                                #548
                                                They easily could of stalled more but played nice.
                                                Comment
                                                • MrXYZ
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-18-11
                                                  • 2342

                                                  #549
                                                  State of Origin Game 3
                                                  NSW vs QLD
                                                  QLD -3.5 @1.92 x1
                                                  Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x2

                                                  I'm rolling with the Queenslanders in a high scoring game. With no rain forecast, and playing at home, they should be too strong for the Blues and take the series for a record 7th straight time.

                                                  Tail or fade, good luck.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MrXYZ
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-18-11
                                                    • 2342

                                                    #550
                                                    Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                                    State of Origin Game 3
                                                    NSW vs QLD
                                                    QLD -3.5 @1.92 x1
                                                    Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x2
                                                    What a game! QLD scraped home for a historic win & cashed the over for a small profit.

                                                    1-1 +0.70 units $35
                                                    2012 NRL season record: 34-37 +22.635 units $1131.75 Unit size is $50.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MrXYZ
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-18-11
                                                      • 2342

                                                      #551
                                                      Round 18

                                                      Total points for Round 18
                                                      OVER 249.5 @1.90 x1

                                                      A few books are offering total round points & found this one at Centrebet. At 249.5, we get an average of 41.5 points. It's a high number, though it looks like we'll see 42.5 totals for most of the weekend's games. With at least 2 set to be tryfests & dud teams Panthers + St George on byes, it's pretty good value.

                                                      Friday
                                                      WESTS TIGERS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
                                                      Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x2

                                                      The match of the round, with the surging Bulldogs out to cement their top 4 spot against a desperate Tigers team. 38.5 is being offered across most books & it's a fair number, with a slight edge to the over thanks to the Tiger's recent defensive woes. We may have to sweat it out though. Good luck.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MrXYZ
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-18-11
                                                        • 2342

                                                        #552
                                                        Added 1 unit to wests/bulldogs total
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrXYZ
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-18-11
                                                          • 2342

                                                          #553
                                                          MELBOURNE STORM vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                                                          Game total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x0.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MrXYZ
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-18-11
                                                            • 2342

                                                            #554
                                                            Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                                            Friday
                                                            WESTS TIGERS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
                                                            Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x2

                                                            MELBOURNE STORM vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                                                            Game total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x0.5
                                                            Bulldogs cashed the easy 2 unit winner with a 32-20 score. Meanwhile the Raiders toppled the Storm 40-12 for smaller profit. It was only a small play - I was unsure the Green Machine would get across the line...

                                                            With the Warriors/Titans putting on a 32-14 tryfest, the total for Round 18 OVER 249.5 is looking good! It only needs an average of 33.5 points for the remaining games to cash.

                                                            2-0 +2.25 units $112.5
                                                            2012 NRL season record: 36-37 +24.885 units $1244.25 Unit size is $50.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • hedgejob
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-21-09
                                                              • 2561

                                                              #555
                                                              Those overs in NRL are relentless. Trend is your friend?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MrXYZ
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-18-11
                                                                • 2342

                                                                #556
                                                                Originally posted by hedgejob
                                                                Those overs in NRL are relentless. Trend is your friend?
                                                                We've been cashing overs week after week and it's been fun. Nobody is playing grind out footy in the NRL it seems. The attacking flair & the speed of the game is unbelievable this year. Then again when the books keep offering Broncos at 38.5 it's a no brainer.

                                                                Parra/Manly & Souths/Knights are up next and at least one of those overs will hit.

                                                                At some point the run of easy money will end and the "sharps" will start making money again. The public has had it too easy. It could happen as early as next week.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MrXYZ
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-18-11
                                                                  • 2342

                                                                  #557
                                                                  MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
                                                                  Game total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Sol
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 01-29-12
                                                                    • 111

                                                                    #558
                                                                    Looks as though you will get the total points for the round, maybe with one game to spare! Great find, well done.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MrXYZ
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-18-11
                                                                      • 2342

                                                                      #559
                                                                      Originally posted by Sol
                                                                      Looks as though you will get the total points for the round, maybe with one game to spare! Great find, well done.
                                                                      Thanks Sol. And Parra just scored to cash today's over too!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • MrXYZ
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-18-11
                                                                        • 2342

                                                                        #560
                                                                        Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                                                        Total points for Round 18
                                                                        OVER 249.5 @1.90 x1

                                                                        MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
                                                                        Game total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1
                                                                        Never in doubt with Manly surviving a late charge from Parra 40-24. Souths 34-14 win over the Knights helped cash the Round 18 total, so regardless of what happens in the Sharks/Roosters MNF game this one's in the bank!

                                                                        2-0 +1.70 units $85
                                                                        2012 NRL season record: 38-37 +25.585 units $1329.25 Unit size is $50.
                                                                        Comment
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