[harthebar]

ok, not at all what tracks you want ?

No problem.. Yes like to have a look at them if you don't mind doing it

[harthebar]

JBEX, HELP ME OUT HERE......JUST NEED YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS QUESTION I WROTE...



I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.6. WHAT HORSE RACED A COMBINE WEAKEST HORSES., HAD EASY FIELDS ,...NOTE..IM NOT TAKING NOTHING AWAY FROM ANYONE



Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

No problem.. Yes like to have a look at them if you don't mind doing it

[Draynay]

Winner is Genral A Rod..... him and Wildcat are clearly the best.

[Heppy10]

i think this year hoppertunity has faced toughest combined competition, california chrome, ride on curlin, tapiture, candy boy, intense holiday, vicars in trouble, bayern

[Heppy10]

Winner is Genral A Rod..... him and Wildcat are clearly the best.

How can you be so sure when they pretty much only faced each other

[harthebar]

YES YOU ARE RIGHT, ABOUT THAT......NOW YOU MIGHT HAVE TO WATCH SOME REPLAYS, I DID , THE PUZZLE LOOKS A BIT CLEARER.., AND TOSS THE HORSES YOU KNOW YOU SHULD, DID SOCIAL INCLUSION GET IN.

I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.
6. WHAT HORSE RACED A COMBINE WEAKEST HORSES., HAD EASY FIELDS ,...NOTE..IM NOT TAKING NOTHING AWAY FROM ANYONE...

Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

i think this year hoppertunity has faced toughest combined competition, california chrome, ride on curlin, tapiture, candy boy, intense holiday, vicars in trouble, bayern

[Heppy10]

What do you guys think about Dance with fate? He only had two bad races in his life, his first career race where he was off slow and pulled going 5 furlongs, and in the BC juvenile where he broke 12th and didn't show much. Besides that he hasn't come worst then second. He has a win at three different tracks which i think is a plus, and it looks like he definitely can handle the extra distance.

The only knock on him i can see is if he's more of a turf/poly horse then a dirt horse. IMO he reminds of one of my favorite horses Animal Kingdom and he was getting the same questions if he could run on the dirt, and we know how that turned out.

My only concern is if the track is off, if it is i might have to look elsewhere

[BGboothA]

I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

OK hart, I will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to Brisnet Average Class Last 3 rating. this is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
WildCat Red 121.2
Cali Chrome 120.7
General A Rod 120.5
Tapiture 119.4
Samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
Chitu (2)
Candy Boy (2)
Commanding Curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. there are no horses taht were never passed. If I am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even CaliChrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than X lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
Cali Chrome 2 lengths
Samraat 2 lengths
WildCat 1.5 legnths
Chitu .5 lengths
General A Rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with Fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
Wicked Strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts

[harthebar]

Im not talking out of the gate, im talk once they settle into there race, like chrome, once he started racing he got the lead and passed evryone, i mean...like a horse that was 3ed 4th and got passed anywhere in the race, except at the finish line, ,in other words they were moving forward...hope that helps, social iclusion, he got passed pretty much at the finish line, where bayner got passed at top of stretch,....lets call it the first call 22.4 47.3 and so on........now let me ask you....who faced tougher fields. Cc or hopper

ok hart, i will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to brisnet average class last 3 rating. This is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
Wildcat red 121.2
cali chrome 120.7
general a rod 120.5
tapiture 119.4
samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
chitu (2)
candy boy (2)
commanding curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. There are no horses taht were never passed. If i am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even calichrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than x lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
cali chrome 2 lengths
samraat 2 lengths
wildcat 1.5 legnths
chitu .5 lengths
general a rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
wicked strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts

[kcburg]

finally a horse racing thread..

[BGboothA]

now let me ask you....who faced tougher fields. Cc or hopper

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts

CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

[CaptainBodgit]

i will only play 1 horse that ive liked for sometime...Commanding Curve

[JBEX]

ok, not at. all what tracks you want ?

Sorry for not getting back sooner. Meadowlands, Yonkers, Woodbine.. Anything
but the smallest venues interest me. Just once or twice a week would
be fine. Like to not only look at that nights races but see if my
running line method worked in any of their past races.

As far as your questions related to the Derby contenders like strength of fields
and horses passed it's just not my style to cap that way. I need a drf and to see
the whole thing in front of me to make a decision. Get a feel for it fairly quick and
for my purposes the advance talk and going by what I've seen in the preps doesn't
help me much. I'm guessing it'll be in Fridays form which will be out tomorrow so
I'll get to see it soon enough

[Draynay]

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts







CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

Great post.... and the reason I am tossing CC

[joeyp1222]

Heres my 5 early picks
wildcat red
vicars in trouble
samraat
california chrome
tapiture

[Heppy10]

All speed horses joey, you dont like any closers?

[mikemca]

Pre pps

1st-Wicked Strong
2nd-Hoppertunity
3rd-Intense Holiday
4th-Medal Count
5th-Danza
6th-California Chrome
7th-Samraat
8th-Genral A Rod
9th-Ride On Curlin
10th-Dance With Fate
11th-Candy Boy
12th-Commanding Curve
13th-Uncle Sigh
14th-Vicars In Trouble
15th-Wildcat Red
16th-Harrys Holiday
17th-Tapiture
18th-Vinceremos
19th-We Miss Artie
20th-Chitu

[BGboothA]

Heres my 5 early picks
wildcat red
vicars in trouble
samraat
california chrome
tapiture

Well Joey, if you substitute Intense Holiday for Vicar's in Trouble we are either both going to be happy or both going to be sad. Still looking at stuff though, and post draw will tell me a lot more about my feelings on Vicar's Wildcat and Samraat

[harthebar]

very close....meaning ...... that type of race .....

1	5	Hoppertunity	$14.20	$5.80	$4.20
2	3	Tapiture	-	$3.80	$2.60
3	2	Ride On Curlin	-	-	$4.60
4	4	Strong Mandate

This is such a difficult task to answer. Because for the most part we have no real comparison. Lets use their last 3 starts

CC raced against
Tamarando
Midnight Hawk
Kristo
SchoolofHardKnocks
Hoppertunity
Candy Boy
Dublin Up

Hoppertunity raced against
*California Chrome
Candy Boy
Dublin Up
Tapiture
Ride On Curlin
Strong Mandate
*Intense Holiday
*Albano
*Vicars in Trouble
Commanding Curve
Rise Up

*Lost to.

I am not sure how this helps you or how it explains it.


Lets look at some Brisnet Numbers

CC Average Race Rating = 116
Hoppertunity Average Race Rating = 116

Average Class Rating
CC = 116.8
Hop 116.6

Do what you will with that.....I will work on your other question this evening after I get a beer.

OK hart, I will take on the homework.

1. Lets look at the top 5 according to Brisnet Average Class Last 3 rating. this is usually a good indicator at what kind of competition you are running against.
WildCat Red 121.2
Cali Chrome 120.7
General A Rod 120.5
Tapiture 119.4
Samraat 119.3

2. It would be easier to list the horses that haven't raced 3 races in 2014, in fact many have raced 4 times this year.
Danza (2)
Chitu (2)
Candy Boy (2)
Commanding Curve (2)

3. This is a loaded question. there are no horses taht were never passed. If I am reading this right, you are talking about wiring the field. This has not happened all three times. Even CaliChrome was passed out of the gate and hit the first call at 2nd and 3rd. Not sure what you mean by this one.

4. Define very close? These horses were never more than X lengths back during the entire race. (last 3)
Cali Chrome 2 lengths
Samraat 2 lengths
WildCat 1.5 legnths
Chitu .5 lengths
General A Rod 1.25 lengths

5. Late closers, thats a large gap.
Dance with Fate gained 9 spots and 7+ legnths
Wicked Strong gained 5 spots and 7+ lenghts

[joeyp1222]

Well Joey, if you substitute Intense Holiday for Vicar's in Trouble we are either both going to be happy or both going to be sad. Still looking at stuff though, and post draw will tell me a lot more about my feelings on Vicar's Wildcat and Samraat

i too am waiting for the draw to tell me if wildcat is my top choice looking for about 8 different
post positions to go with

[Draynay]

Great post for the top 2.... General A Rod and Wildcat.

A speed horse inside and outside of CC ..... instant toss !

[mikemca]

Battaglia lost his mind with some of these mls



1-Vicars In Trouble 30-1
2-Harrys Holiday 50-1
3-Uncle Sigh 30-1
4-Danza 10-1
5-Cal Chrome 5-2
6-Samraat 15-1
7-We Miss Artie 50-1
8-General A rod 15-1
9-Vinceremos 30-1
10-Wildcat Red 15-1
11-Hoppertunity 6-1
12-Dance With Fate 20-1
13-Chitu 20-1
14-Medal Count 20-1
15-Tapiture
16-Intense Holiday 12-1
17-Commanding Curve 50-1
18-Candy Boy 20-1
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1
20-Wicked Strong 8-1

[sandyw123]

Well, 3 of my top 4 drew good positions I think (General A Rod, Danza, and Dance with Fate). Ride on Curlin not so much. I'll have to find an alternative. Probably either Samraat or Wildcat Red.

[harthebar]

mike how did they draw this year, i didnt see, do they , pick from a container and they go right down the line, example, post 1 they pick and pull out a horses name.....or do the ask pick and see who has first pick, and they ..the owner /trianer pick the spot...if so who had first pick

Battaglia lost his mind with some of these mls



1-Vicars In Trouble 30-1
2-Harrys Holiday 50-1
3-Uncle Sigh 30-1
4-Danza 10-1
5-Cal Chrome 5-2
6-Samraat 15-1
7-We Miss Artie 50-1
8-General A rod 15-1
9-Vinceremos 30-1
10-Wildcat Red 15-1
11-Hoppertunity 6-1
12-Dance With Fate 20-1
13-Chitu 20-1
14-Medal Count 20-1
15-Tapiture
16-Intense Holiday 12-1
17-Commanding Curve 50-1
18-Candy Boy 20-1
19-Ride On Curlin 15-1
20-Wicked Strong 8-1

[mikemca]

they pick a name(horse) and a pill(post)

It's random..no one gets to choose anything


Vicars In Trouble drew #1 right off the bat

[Easy-Rider 66]

mike how did they draw this year, i didnt see, do they , pick from a container and they go right down the line, example, post 1 they pick and pull out a horses name.....or do the ask pick and see who has first pick, and they ..the owner /trianer pick the spot...if so who had first pick

Random draw. They changed it last year from a system where a Horse was drawn and the connections had the option to pick the post.

[harthebar]

mike ,what are your post, the one's you like the most, do you like where wicked is at 20 where would you prefer him to be, im just trying to get a read on this

they pick a name(horse) and a pill(post)

It's random..no one gets to choose anything


Vicars In Trouble drew #1 right off the bat

[mikemca]

mike ,what are your post, the one's you like the most, do you like where wicked is at 20 where would you prefer him to be, im just trying to get a read on this

No don't like the 20 spot.He can still win as 2 of the last 5 winners have had the far outside post and 3 of last 5 came from aux gate but hard to take single digits.Will still use him but now looking toward Danza/Medal Count over Wicked Strong ,Hoppertunity,and Intense Holiday.

PPs still not up yet so nothing set in stone

[harthebar]

what do you mean they arent up yet ???the PPS

No don't like the 20 spot.He can still win as 2 of the last 5 winners have had the far outside post and 3 of last 5 came from aux gate but hard to take single digits.Will still use him but now looking toward Danza/Medal Count over Wicked Strong ,Hoppertunity,and Intense Holiday.

PPs still not up yet so nothing set in stone

[mikemca]

past performances aren't out yet

[harthebar]

thats what i call a brain fart, i was thinking post numbers.. ....da

as far as your comment about battag....morning lines, what do you like the most and whats the worst, i think wicked strong 8-1 should be higher, cc 5/2 to low then you go to hopp at 6-1 i was watching some past derbys, and i saw that if you have post 16-20 and some speed, its not that bad, post 1-5 your buried, ....at least with wicked strong he should stay out of trouble....

past performances aren't out yet

[Draynay]

Www.toddpletcherracing.com

[harthebar]

Happy hunting fellows its here the pps for the derby


churchill downs derby day pps.pdf

[StackinGreen]

anyone got drf pps?

[harthebar]

Yes they are right above your last blog
churchill downs derby day pps.pdf

anyone got drf pps?

YOU GET THEM,,ARE THEY OPENING UP OK