1. #1
    Aunty808
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    SYSTEM PICKS Week 6

    This is a system that is based on three stats. I use ESPN for the QBR rating rank and one other site for the Top 25 ranking and the Pass Defense ranking.

    Because of the number of games each week, I've decided to just do the Top 25 team/games.

    I will come back and update the picks with when I enter the contest, either Friday night or early Saturday and use those lines as my final number.

    Best Bets: Teams that ranked higher in all the catagories.
    (T25 Rank)
    (1) Mich
    (7) ND
    (8) Mia FL
    (15)Oreg St
    (19)NC
    (25)Kan St
    (18)Geo**

    **Using the opening lines, Geo is a 14' favorite. Early contest consensus (aka recency bias) is all over Kentucky(73%/92%) after seeing them beat Florida. Last week, this system had Kentucky as a pick because one factor I take into consideration is to take a lower ranked team, giving points to the higher ranked team. Last week, Kentucky, ranked #47, and was a one point favorite vs Florida, ranked #20, beating them 33-14. In week 4 there were two games, Utah(26) a three point fav vs UCLA(10), beating them 14-7 and Ohio St(5) a three point fav vs ND(1), winning the game outright and pushing ATS. Also worthwhile noting is that the games all stayed UNDER the total.

    Next group: Dog Consensus/Play Against
    The teams with the * are the system picks because of their higher Pass D rank, but because the contest consensus is on the DOG, I play against the system pick, going with the favorite.

    DOG / PLAY ON FAV
    *Mizzo/ LSU
    *Vtech/ Fla ST (System Pick)
    *Maryland/ Ohio St
    *Arz/ USC
    Wash St/ UCLA (System Pick)
    Ark/ Miss (System Pick)
    Okl/ Texas **

    See write up about Geo/Kentucky game. Using the opening lines, Texas(6) is a five point fav vs Okl(5). Texas ranks higher than Oklahoma in the other two catagories.

    I will finalize everything before the games. I still want to see the site's predictions on Friday so I can compare picks. The only thing that will change the picks listed above would be the consensus. I will compare it again on Friday night and make any changes in the final picks.
    BOL to all!

    EDIT: I forgot, (14) Alabama is the System Pick vs (17)TAM.
    Last edited by Aunty808; 10-03-23 at 05:00 PM. Reason: Added missed game.

  2. #2
    Aunty808
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    Wed/Thurs Games

    I had some free time and decided to try the System on the weekday games.

    Wednesday Oct 4
    (Rank) /Team /Contest Line
    (85) Jax St @ (113) MTSt-3'
    Jax St ranks higher than MTSt, QBR Jax St, Pass Defense Jax St.
    Should be a Best Best, but Jax St is a DOG Consensus (58%/63%) and becomes a play against.
    Pick: MTST-3'

    (105) Fla Int @ (69) NMexSt-6
    NMexSt ranks higher than Fla Int, QBR NMexSt, Pass Def Fla Int.
    System picks team with the higher Pass Defense rank.
    Pick: Fla Int +6

    Thursday Oct 5
    (110) Sam Houston @ (52) Liberty-19
    Liberty ranks higher than Sam H, QBR Liberty (71.9 to 21.9) Pass Defense Liberty
    Liberty ranks higher in all three catagories, makng it a Best Bet.
    Pick:Liberty-19

    (93) W Kentucky-6 @ (98)La Tech
    WKentucky ranks higher than LaTech, QBR WKentucky, Pass Defense LaTech.
    System picks team with the higher Pass Defense rank.
    Pick: LaTech+6

    (74) Neb @ (80) Ill-3
    Neb ranks higher than Ill, QBR Ill, Pass Defense Nebraska.
    System picks team with the higher Pass Defense rank, but Illinois is a lower ranked team, giving points, making Nebraska a play against. (Works with the Top 25 teams, not sure how it will do outside top 25 ranked teams.)
    Pick: Ill-3

    This game is listed in the original post as Kansas State is ranked in the Top 25 on the site that I use.
    (25) Kansas St -12 @ (83)Okl St
    Kansas St ranks higher than Okl St, QBR Kansas St (76.3 to 33.6), Pass Defense Kansas St.
    Kansas St ranks higher in all three catagories, making it a Best Bet.
    Pick: Kansas St-12

    Just wanted to try the System on some games outside of the Top 25 to see how the System performs.
    If I get decent results (more wins than losses), I'll try to do other games, time permitting.

  3. #3
    Dakota
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    good luck....appreciate all the info

  4. #4
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    good luck....appreciate all the info
    You're welcome and thanks for stopping by.

    I have the day off and will be looking into last week's matchups outside of the Top 25 to see how the System performed. I am using the updated data from the site, so the results may not be accurate because the games were played last week.

    If there are any games you would like me to run using my method, let me know.

    On a side note, this NCAAF System uses three stats, Top 25 Rank, QBR rank and Pass Defense rank. I am doing the final tweaks on my NFL System and what I found is, with the NFL, I am looking to use only the QBR ranking and an OFFENSIVE stat. I will also take into consideration the DOG consensus in my contest to get a feel of where the "public" is "betting". Another factor I will consider is my other contest pick percentage. I call those games my RED FLAG games because that's where most upsets occur.
    If a Road Fav has a pick percentage of 90% or higher, they usually, but not always, either LOSE the game outright or FAIL TO COVER the spread.

    Example of this from this past week is the Road Fav KC-8', with a pick percentage of 98%. NYJ almost pulled the upset, but came up short. Final score 23-20.

    If a Road Dog has a pick percentage of 10% or less, they are the teams that usually, but not always, WIN the games outright or COVER the spread. But, if the consensus is picking the Road Dog, it's a play against, take the Home Fav.

    Example from last week is Road Dog Ariz+14 with a 2% pick percentage. My contest had the consensus (51%) on Ariz, making Ariz a play against, play on SF.
    Final score SF 35-16.

    The NFL is a different animal. There's so much talk about fixed/rigged games. I for one, years ago, believed games were fixed and quit watching the games. What pushed me over the edge was a MNF game that Wash played. I don't remember the details but a kid I worked with was heavy into betting and I told him exactly what was going to happen in the game. Long story short, he asked me how I knew the outcome and I said to him, "figure out the storyline and you'll know who's going to win".

    Today, I have no opinion on fixed games....it is what it is. Deal with it and move on. Just be on the right side if you feel the game is fixed.

    Finally, with the NFL, if you can pick the SU winner of the game, most times the line does not matter. There's been debate on this subject too, but I won't get into it. With that thought in mind, what win games? The team that scores the most points. That's why with the NFL, I choose to use an OFFENSIVE STAT and a QBR who is capable of winning games. This NFL System has the same theme as the NCAAF

    If you don't have a QB, you don't have an offense. You don't have an offense, you cannot score points. You cannot score points, you cannot win games.

    Sorry for the length of this post, I didn't mean to write a book...
    BOL to all!

  5. #5
    Dakota
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    very informative.....just curious where u get your consensus because theres so many cons. sites with that info...thanks again

  6. #6
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    very informative.....just curious where u get your consensus because theres so many cons. sites with that info...thanks again
    I hesitate to mention specific sites because some discussion boards frown upon doing so. I got into trouble before, so I don't mention the names of the specific sites. But, there are so many to choose from. Just find one and if it fits your needs, stick with them. I did mention the covers contest consensus and didn't get in trouble, so I guess it's okay to mention that site.
    Good luck with your bets!

  7. #7
    Dakota
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aunty808 View Post
    I hesitate to mention specific sites because some discussion boards frown upon doing so. I got into trouble before, so I don't mention the names of the specific sites. But, there are so many to choose from. Just find one and if it fits your needs, stick with them. I did mention the covers contest consensus and didn't get in trouble, so I guess it's okay to mention that site.
    Good luck with your bets!
    I understand....appreciate the advice...best of luck to you

  8. #8
    Aunty808
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    Yesteday resulted in two losses.

    The good news is, both FIU an MTST both won the first half, and both games went OV the total.
    I'll be tracking this to see if it will be a worthwhile trend. Or maybe not worth the time and will just stick to the Top 25 Matchups/games.

    I did do more Saturday games. System picking:

    Using contest line when I entered yesterday

    Toledo-19
    Miss-20' O56' (tracking O/U Trend)
    Wisc-13' (Pick was Rutgers but Dog Consensus (66%/77%)
    Army-3 O49'
    CMich-3 O52 (OVER Consensus 83%)
    UTSA-14 (vsTemple Dog Consensus68%/88%)
    Clemson-21
    Rice-9' (Consensus on Rice is 74%/92%) =Red Flag! I don't like taking a team, fav or dog with a 80% or higher pick. Most times they lose.
    Colorado -4 (consensus on Col 82%/83%)
    Fresno-6
    Col St -2' (Consensus on Col St 63%/90%) = Red Flag!

    BOL to all
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: yojamminj

  9. #9
    Aunty808
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    Well, the bad news is two more losses yesterday.

    BUT, the good news is maybe I can still post the picks so everyone can FADE them! Seriously, if it continues to lose like it has the past couple days, I'll continue to post the picks and play against them in my contest.

    The other good news is I follow a certain capper on another board and he has both picks that the system is picking today. He's got Ill-3 and Kan St -11. So far he's gotten a sweep on the last 2 days college game picks. Been reading his threads for years....he's really good at capping and has a large following. Hope his luck continues and sweep the board tonight!

    BOL to all!

  10. #10
    Dakota
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    the top 25 plays may be the only ones to play....i cant believe how well they did last week

  11. #11
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    the top 25 plays may be the only ones to play....i cant believe how well they did last week
    I think what is happening is regression is kicking in. The weekday games is telling me what's gonna happen this weekend. The Top 25 is part of the System and is not immune to regression.

    Doing "Systems" for the past 20 plus years, the one thing I learned is that no matter how great your system, capping, etc is, "regression to the mean" will find you and balance everything out. In all my years visiting different forums, I have never come across any capper who kept winning week after week after week. Even the best of the best cappers knows that they are not immune to it and kinda expect it to happen, they just don't know when regression will show up. But it does, like clockwork.

    My thinking is, last week's results were too good to be true (9-1 ATS). I think the System hit it's peak last week. I truly expect regression to the hit the Top 25 list this week. We'll find out tomorrow. I can't back test week one through four because the stats keeps getting updated, so I don't know if the earlier weeks were successful or not.

    In all the years that I've done NFL systems, regression always showed up after the fourth week. Win, Win, Win, Win...Lose. Rinse and repeat.

    good luck with your bets!

  12. #12
    Dakota
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aunty808 View Post
    I think what is happening is regression is kicking in. The weekday games is telling me what's gonna happen this weekend. The Top 25 is part of the System and is not immune to regression.

    Doing "Systems" for the past 20 plus years, the one thing I learned is that no matter how great your system, capping, etc is, "regression to the mean" will find you and balance everything out. In all my years visiting different forums, I have never come across any capper who kept winning week after week after week. Even the best of the best cappers knows that they are not immune to it and kinda expect it to happen, they just don't know when regression will show up. But it does, like clockwork.

    My thinking is, last week's results were too good to be true (9-1 ATS). I think the System hit it's peak last week. I truly expect regression to the hit the Top 25 list this week. We'll find out tomorrow. I can't back test week one through four because the stats keeps getting updated, so I don't know if the earlier weeks were successful or not.

    In all the years that I've done NFL systems, regression always showed up after the fourth week. Win, Win, Win, Win...Lose. Rinse and repeat.

    good luck with your bets!
    yes, u raise some very valid points....hopefully the system u came up with will do well again today...best of luck!

  13. #13
    Aunty808
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    Moose on the Loose?

    Last week's results was 14-1-1 ATS, not 9-1 ATS.

    I did a quick check of last week's results and found that twelve of the winners were favorites, 3 dogs either won SU or won ATS and there was one PUSH.

    This week's picks are all favorites.
    Usually I read alot of threads on different boards of how they got moosed. I haven't come across anyone screaming of how they got moosed this year. But ,this year what I've noticed is, there's been more last minute front door covers. One example is the ND/Duke game. I had ND as my survivor pick and was ticked off because I thought they lost the game, but the game went down to the wire, they scored and won the game and covered the spread.

    Will the Moose show up this week?
    I think so. The System is picking all favorites this week. No way will they all win or cover the spread.

    These are the games that the consensus is picking the dog. I'll put them on the "MOOSE WATCH" game list.
    ARIZ @ USC
    MARY @ OHIO ST
    VTECH @ FLA ST
    KENTUCKY @ GEO
    WASH ST @ UCLA
    MIZZO VS LSU

    I think it's time for change in the Top 25 and Vegas let's the gambler's have a feel good moment, only to take the $$$ back next week.
    It will be interesting to see what happens today.....BOL to all

  14. #14
    Dakota
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    appreciate all of the hard work...thank u!!

  15. #15
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    appreciate all of the hard work...thank u!!
    No problem, it's something that I like to do to exercise my mind and hopefully stay sharp.
    It's looking more like an UPSET Weekend, maybe the moose will show up in the later games.

    I am tracking FADING all of the System's pick in my contest and so far I am winning. When I put the picks in right before the start of the first game, I noticed and made note of certain games which had a line movement that didn't move the right way. Need to keep track of how those games turn out and use that as another tool when deciding who to pick.

    I'm watching the OKL/Tex game....good game.....kinda cheering for Oklahoma and QB from Hawaii, Dillon Gabriel.

  16. #16
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    the top 25 plays may be the only ones to play....i cant believe how well they did last week
    I'm updating all the games and what I found is you are correct. This System works for the Top 25 teams. BUT, remember when I said the System throws out too many favorites? Well, guess what? The DOGS are in "the rest of the games" catagory. I'm glad I had the time to do the other games or I wouldn't have discovered the DOGS hideout. Regression didn't hit the System today, well maybe a little bit.....I thought the Moose would show up, which he did in a couple of games, but after looking over the games, came back and said it would be more like an UPSET day. A couple of teams in the Top 25 got UPSET, and Arizona is giving USC major stress right now.

    Anyways, I just wanted to let you know, you were right, the Top 25 is a different animal!
    Be back with the very surprising results!

  17. #17
    Aunty808
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    Updated with closing lines and Results

    I'm waiting for the two late games before posting the results of the Top 25.

    However, I did the "the rest of the games".


    "the rest of the games"...where the DOGS hangout.


    Fla Int+6'
    NMST won SU/ATS 34-17


    Liberty-21
    Liberty won SU but lost ATS vs Sam Houston 21-16

    La Tech +6
    W Kentucky won SU/ATS 35-28

    Ill-3
    Ill lost SU/ATS vs NEBRASKA 20-7 DOG ML winner

    Toledo-19
    Toledo won SU and lost ATS vs Mass 41-24

    Miss St-20' O56' (tracking O/U Trend)
    (Original post had Miss-20'/ corrected above Miss St)
    Miss St won SU but lost ATS vs W Mich 41-28
    The OV56' won. Tracking the games when both teams have a double-digit Pass Defense Rating (NOT RANKING).

    Wisc-13' (Pick was Rutgers but Dog Consensus (66%/77%)
    Wisc won SU but lost ATS due to the Moose showing up......vs Rutgers 24-13

    Army-3 O49'
    Army lost SU/ATS due to the Moose showing up......vs BC 24-27 DOG ML winner
    OV49' won

    C Mich-3 O52 (OVER Consensus 83%)
    C Mich lost SU/ATS vs Buffalo 13-37 DOG ML winner
    OV52 lost. Tracked for consensus and not system Pass Defense DD Rating.

    UTSA-14 (vsTemple Dog Consensus68%/88%)
    UTSA won SU/ATS vs Temple 49-34
    Very high Dog consensus on Temple. FADE

    Clemson-21
    Clemson won SU but lost ATS vs Wake Forest 17-12


    Rice-9' (Consensus on Rice is 74%/92%) =Red Flag! I don't like taking a team, fav or dog with a 80% or higher pick. Most times they lose.
    Yup, they lose. Rice lost SU/ATS vs UConn 13-38 DOG ML winner

    Colorado -4 (consensus on Col 82%/83%)
    Colorado won SU but lost ATS vs Ariz St 27-24.
    I think the Moose showed up here too.

    Fresno-6

    Fresno lost SU/ATS vs Wyoming 19-24 DOG ML winner

    Col St -2' (Consensus on Col St 63%/90%) = Red Flag!

    Col St (my daughter spent her freshman year there....Fort Collins is a very nice college town.)
    Col St lost SU/ATS vs Utat St 24-44 DOG ML winner

    NOTE: I do not keep a win/loss record like most cappers do. All I do is post the picks and pray I will have more winners than losers. If you need to know the actual #'s , then you will have to read and count to find the answer.

    I'll be back after the Arz/USC and Oreg St/Calf game. I really hope the DOGS pull off the upsets. A couple more upsets in the Top 25 would be nice! (I think I just jinxed Arizona and Calif.)

  18. #18
    Aunty808
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    Top 25 Games
    Updating with contest lines and results:



    (SU/ATS) PICK/SCORE

    Best Bets
    (WW) Mich-18' 52-10
    (LL) ND-6' 20-33
    (LL) Mia Fla-20 20-23
    (WW)Oreg St-7' 52-40
    (WW)No Carolina -9' 40-7
    (WW) Geo-14' 51-13
    (LL) Kan St-12 21-29


    (LL) Tex-4 30-34


    Reg Pick
    (WW) Ala-2' 26-20


    DOG Consensus/Play Against / Play on Fav

    (Dog) PICK/ SCORE/ SU/ATS
    (Ariz) USC-21 43-41 WL
    (Mizzo) LSU-5' 49-39 WW
    (VTech) Fla St-24 39-17 WL
    (Mary) Ohio St-17 37-17 WW
    (Wash St) UCLA-3' 25-17 WW
    (Ark) Miss-13 27-20 WL




    Thought regression was gonna show up today and I suppose it did a little. System had a couple of Upsets and half of the DOG consensus favorites didn't cover the spread, but at least they all won straight up. Today I learned the Upsets will occur in the Best Bet Catagory, not in the DOG consensus bunch.


    On to next week.
    Good luck to all!

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