This is a system that is based on three stats. I use ESPN for the QBR rating rank and one other site for the Top 25 ranking and the Pass Defense ranking.
Because of the number of games each week, I've decided to just do the Top 25 team/games.
I will come back and update the picks with when I enter the contest, either Friday night or early Saturday and use those lines as my final number.
Best Bets: Teams that ranked higher in all the catagories.
(T25 Rank)
(1) Mich
(7) ND
(8) Mia FL
(15)Oreg St
(19)NC
(25)Kan St
(18)Geo**
**Using the opening lines, Geo is a 14' favorite. Early contest consensus (aka recency bias) is all over Kentucky(73%/92%) after seeing them beat Florida. Last week, this system had Kentucky as a pick because one factor I take into consideration is to take a lower ranked team, giving points to the higher ranked team. Last week, Kentucky, ranked #47, and was a one point favorite vs Florida, ranked #20, beating them 33-14. In week 4 there were two games, Utah(26) a three point fav vs UCLA(10), beating them 14-7 and Ohio St(5) a three point fav vs ND(1), winning the game outright and pushing ATS. Also worthwhile noting is that the games all stayed UNDER the total.
Next group: Dog Consensus/Play Against
The teams with the * are the system picks because of their higher Pass D rank, but because the contest consensus is on the DOG, I play against the system pick, going with the favorite.
DOG / PLAY ON FAV
*Mizzo/ LSU
*Vtech/ Fla ST (System Pick)
*Maryland/ Ohio St
*Arz/ USC
Wash St/ UCLA (System Pick)
Ark/ Miss (System Pick)
Okl/ Texas **
See write up about Geo/Kentucky game. Using the opening lines, Texas(6) is a five point fav vs Okl(5). Texas ranks higher than Oklahoma in the other two catagories.
I will finalize everything before the games. I still want to see the site's predictions on Friday so I can compare picks. The only thing that will change the picks listed above would be the consensus. I will compare it again on Friday night and make any changes in the final picks.
BOL to all!
EDIT: I forgot, (14) Alabama is the System Pick vs (17)TAM.
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