Wow, what a first round
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Cerrone putting on a clinic now. His wrestling is greatly improved, as it needed to be, and he's mixing it up well. Beautiful performance so far.Comment -
Should have gone with my gut instinct, but that's easy to say in hindsight. I swear, if they now score this fight for Varner I will never bet on MMA again.Comment -
Lost all respect I had for Varner...u right about his mentality not being right...he didnt look like he wanted to fight at all!Comment -
Aldo is a killer, I think he's top three pound for pound. I'll predict Aldo by 2nd round TKO!Comment -
Specific prediction for Diaz-Noons II:
Some are talking about value with Noons for stylistic reasons. In one sense I agree, because as they point out Noons is a great striker and may well have the advantage on the feet. He also has very good takedown defense, so it will be hard (at least early on) for Diaz to get it to the ground, since wrestling is never Diaz' forte. Anyway, Diaz is usually happy to stand and bang, perhaps even more so now that he feels he has something to prove.
So I have some difficulty backing Diaz at -255, but I can't back Noons. Diaz is a more complete MMA fighter, has fought tougher opposition, should have better cardio (he's a devoted triathlete and I've never really seen him look tired in a fight), and is flat out tough. Yes, I buy into the whole tough guy persona, and I'm not ashamed to admit it. Diaz is one tough fighter, if ever there was one. He will not be stopped. Noons can win a decision or (again) by stoppage due to a cut.
The best value, in my opinion, is on Diaz in the later rounds.
Yesterday I took Diaz in round 5 at +1400, and Diaz in round 4 at +850. I also took Diaz to win by decision +460. All those odds dropped at 5dimes, some significantly so (like Diaz in round 5 at +925 today).
I expect Noons to get the better of it in the first round and perhaps the second as well, but somewhere in the third round the tide will turn. The accumulation of Diaz' punches will take its toll, and Noons will tire before Diaz. I think Diaz will finally win by submission in the fourth or (hopefully) fifth round.
Obviously a specific prediction that has a slim chance of coming true, but I think chances are enough to warrant these props given the odds.Last edited by lasker; 10-08-10, 04:38 PM.Comment -
So my bets for this event:
Diaz wins in round 4 +850: 1u to win 8.5u
Diaz wins in round 5 +1400: 1u to win 14u
Diaz to win by decision +460: 1u to win 4.6u
Thomson by 3 round decision +174, 2u to win 3.48u
Tyron Woodley -260, 2u to win 0.77uComment -
I like those
Wish I could get prop bets for Strikeforce, Im expecting a Diaz decision and Thomson decision as well. Got 2 units on Diaz/Noons going over 2.5 rounds, I think and hope it will definitely get to at least round 3 with both fighters being quite hesitant and keeping it standing for first two rounds and finding their range.
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I have Kj NOons locked in at +175. Should have pounced on +195. I have five units on KJ.Comment -
GJ Lasker. Nice night.Comment -
Thanks Ecco, you too (as usual)!Comment -
Damn that's truly guttering man! Feel for u!Comment -
My favorite fighter, and still the greatest fighter ever.Comment -
Ouch that one hurts a little. You only lost a dollar, but it's what you could have won. It's a shame we can't do like Vaughany and get something for 8 or 9 out of 10.Comment -
Yeah, it was painful. So long as I come close, though, I feel I'll hit a 10-teamer one of these days, and since I'm not risking too much I'll keep on trying, dammit
Forgot to post my picks here for UFC 120, sorry... I didn't see too many plays I liked a lot, so I just made a few comments on other forums. In the end my winners were Bisping by decision and Maldonado (who was my favorite play for the night), and I lost on Hardy inside the distance and Kongo props (to win in rd 1 or in round 2). My longshot parlays lost, as usual. Not a great night, but I'll be back with some big plays for 121.Comment -
Unloading 5 units on Schaub +155 over Gonzaga. I'll post a blog on that one later, may even add more on it. My favorite play for UFC 121, along with Hamill -160 which I wrote about earlier.Last edited by lasker; 10-17-10, 03:49 PM.Comment -
Im also liking Schaub over Gonzaga. Need to watch Gonzaga's last couple of fights again before I pull the trigger tho. From memory tho, Gonzaga seems considerably slower and less mobile then he used to be...although he was never the type of fighter to be fleet of foot, always had a kind of awkward heavy style, even the leg kick to Cro-Cop looked like it wasnt technically very good, just extremely powerful and well timed. Also, although perhaps not very significant, I watched that UFC Marines promo video thing that they did recently a few months ago were likes of Forrest Griffin, Marcus Davis, Rashad and Gonzaga went to a Marine training base with Brian Stann and took part in some training scenarios. I remember ther was one scenario which they all attempted and succeeded in doing apart from Gonzaga. He couldnt even lift himself over a wooden barrier thing and coulnt climb a rope or something! Obviously nothing should really be taken from this as he wasnt exactly puttin massive effort into the whole thing but still, he seems old and on a downward spiral to me whilst Schaub is the young hungry and athletic stud who's always improving.Comment -
hmm schaub over gonzaga is interestingComment -
Gonzaga will have a very tough time taking Schaub to the mat. Can Gonzaga win this fight on the feet? I don't see it happening. For plus money, Schaub has got to be the play.Comment -
Agreed. At Jackson's, Schaub has been preparing for wrestlers ever since his UFC debut. Nelson, Gormley, Tuchscherer, they all wanted to take him down (at least on paper... Nelson ended up standing but they couldn't have known that). Gonzaga is not the same caliber wrestler as those guys, not even close. And if he can't take this fight down he's in trouble.
Schaub's movement and takedown defense look superb. Even if Gonzaga does take him to the mat, I'm confident Schaub will be able to get back up. Gonzaga crumbles when he is hit and is also known for gassing, while Schaub is a really great striker with cardio for days. I also wonder about Gonzaga's confidence after his recent KO losses, compared with Schaub's confidence which sounds like it's skyrocketing from his recent interviews and his last two performances. Schaub should be favored here; as I expected, I think Gonzaga's been overvalued ever since his highlight reel KO of Cro-Cop.Last edited by lasker; 10-19-10, 05:21 PM.Comment -
Kampmann by submission +1300
I know I know, I'm crazy, this could never happen, etc... but I admit to thinking there might be value here. About one-third of Kampmann's wins have come by submission and of his last six wins, half of them were by submission. If he rocks Shields' it is not impossible for him to finish with a choke, a la Kampmann-Volkmann or Hughes-Almeida (in both cases, the one winning by submission was supposed to be a much inferior grappler). Shields would have been finished by RNC against Miller had the clock not saved him in round 3, as I recall. He is submittable. His jiu-jitsu is phenomenal but it's very much geared for top-position. If he gets rocked on the feet this result could certainly happen.
I'm on Shields to win by decision, as I think it's the most likely result by far, but I've included Kampmann by submission in some low-risk, high-payout parlays.Comment -
My favorite plays for this card are Schaub +155, Hamill -160, and Madsen -245, in that order.Comment -
I know TUF was quite some time ago, but Schaub was being taken down to the mat every fight and held there for a good portion of his fights. I don't think it would be that hard for Gonzaga to take him down if that's what he wanted. However, Schaub has never been to a decision and Gonzaga doesn't LNP so I still think there's value on Schaub and I can definitely see him pulling it off.Comment -
Ryan Jensen +200
I like McGee, but I don't know what he has done to convince people that he should be a -240 favorite over a seasoned UFC vet like Ryan Jensen. His win on TUF was over a relatively weak group of fighters, and the even the finale was no exception. Not saying Jensen should be favored, but I think this is much closer to a coin-toss. McGee doesn't have nearly the level of jiu-jitsu or striking to make me believe that he'll dominate this match, and I could see it going either way.Comment -
I was thinking the same thing here. I like Court a lot, but he's just too heavily favored here. Good value for Jensen. Court's very green and I'm sure his learning curve is quite high, so he may come in a much improved fighter and take this easy, but for his current body of work this line is too heavy for him.
I also agree with everything you're saying regarding Schaub/Gonzaga, I'm just waiting for the TKO/KO prop. Don't see any reason to bet on Schaub with any other outcome. Gonzaga COULD win this with TKO, but you just have to like Schaub, especially with the line.Comment -
I tend to agree, especially as neither fighter has been to decision, but be careful. It's unlikely, but Schaub might win by decision given the tendency of Jackson fighters to focus on a conservative gameplan to get the win with minimal risk. I could see him employing a similar gameplan to Guillard against Stephens, where he is sticking and moving and just avoiding Gonzaga's power while peppering him with jabs all night long. I expect Schaub to win by TKO/KO, but depending how big the odds difference is between the TKO prop and the straight up bet, this is something to consider.Comment -
i tend to agree...madsen being parlay material(just not laying those odds vs that kind of sudden power)....
i am a huge kampmann admirer....unfortunately,sometimes his fight i.q. is lacking...that and the fact he starts fights extremely slowly.....he`s almost too relaxed early on(he`s not tight)...and it`s cost him........but shields shouldn`t be an early danger.....it`s actually amazing that shields is so dominant given that his stand-up is utter shite...i remember him being unable to get the bully out of there with his stand-up on "bully beatdown"..hon
estly,i don`t know whether it`s physiological or just the fact that he has a grappler`s mentality....the guy can`t strike....
but i`ve learned my lesson wagering against elite grappler/wrestlers...so a shields via decision/kampmann sub makes sense to me....
and i think that if i were gonzaga i`d get schaub to the mat...or kick the hell out of his legs and try and set-up a high kick....gonzaga stands with schaub,he could very well get viciously dummied......
some interesting threads going on in here on 121....everybody`s respectful....
this place is top drawer...Comment -
I agree there may well be value in this, however, surely if Kampmann was able to sub Shields it would be a pretty much definite Submission of the Night which you should be able to get at better than +1300 odds? This is my logic behind going for Schaub KO of the Night rather than just Schaub to win by KO!Comment -
what sports books are offering UFC props as specific as fight/submission of the night?
BTW very much like Schaub in that spot as well, Gonzaga has never looked to good to me, folds after taking a few solid hits. Always like to hear abit about the guys training camp or motivations before making a 5 unit bet though.Comment -
I think the line is inflated due to the fact that TUF winners are 11-3 in their debuts after winning the show with Stevenson, Sadollah and Wilks being the losses. There is usually a built in assumption into ppls opinions that the UFC sets up favourable matchups for TUF winners to make them more marketable. I think this was the definitely the case over a large portion of the the earlier TUF's but I think it has lessened to an extent over the past couple seasons. I think the line is too high in this one, but It's prolly one that I will stay away from. GL!Comment
