MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

i'm just busting your balls
I feel you're off sometimes but you do have some moments of insight

it's not like you're sacrilicious or that pouyopopopop guy

Thanks for the compliment; I appreciate it. Hope you don't legit think I faked the live betting though, other posts in the thread will support it. I'm glad we're not still arguing over a thread from a week ago, though.

I didn't feel comfortable with most of my wagers on this card; the pessimist in me was expecting a tough night. Like I said, I didn't put much work into this card (which is funny, given the number of plays I made), but I'm hoping to change that for next card and put some more work in. I'll take the cash, though; profited nicely.

[MD]

I can confirm that it is difficult to post the live bets in time.

but if you couldnt post it in time why past post it

and make a big deal out of it

you certainly didnt help anyone by doing so

not to mention that it is rather "convenient"

that you past post big live wager

recouping all the losses from your pre posted losers

but who am i to question

I only posted one of the live bets after the fact. The rest were posted at the time.

If people think I'm full of shit, that wouldn't bother me. I made the effort to post the live bets in the thread so that it wouldn't look like I was pulling a Luca Fury, which is also why I quoted those posts instead of just copy/pasting, so anyone can click the blue arrows to see that my wagers were legitimate. Not much more I can do, so I'm not really concerned.

Also, Mendes -420 against Manny, and the sad part is that is probably has some value. He really needs to get a step up in opponents.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I only posted one of the live bets after the fact. The rest were posted at the time.

If people think I'm full of shit, that wouldn't bother me. I made the effort to post the live bets in the thread so that it wouldn't look like I was pulling a Luca Fury, which is also why I quoted those posts instead of just copy/pasting, so anyone can click the blue arrows to see that my wagers were legitimate. Not much more I can do, so I'm not really concerned.

Also, Mendes -420 against Manny, and the sad part is that is probably has some value. He really needs to get a step up in opponents.

funny thing is if that focking owrm fury ever leaves his parents basement and goes to vegas

i will pull his pants down in the middle of the luxor

and whip his ass with my louie belt

swear to christ

call it a 21st century initiation

into the mysteries

i will focking youtube it

will do 6 months in clarke county for that shit

if i have to

time well spent

[MD]

5dimes never gets any action on MMA after big events. $100 on Machida by decision moves it from +132 to +115, another $100 moves it to -115. If anyone wants to throw some money on "Not Machida by Decision", I suggest doing it now.

[MD]

Two maxi-bets on Jones ITD and the line hasn't moved. That Machida by decision line has recovered on 5D, for those interested in betting it. Some interesting lines released recently.

[PunisherIND]

Two maxi-bets on Jones ITD and the line hasn't moved. That Machida by decision line has recovered on 5D, for those interested in betting it. Some interesting lines released recently.

you like jones itd @ -300 better than fight itd @ -400?

[MD]

you like jones itd @ -300 better than fight itd @ -400?

God yes. Not Sonnen ITD may be the only true lock of the current lines. I think the odds of Sonnen finishing Jones are literally less than 1%. 1% would be generous.

Also, played Nelson -175 over Santiago.

[PunisherIND]

God yes. Not Sonnen ITD may be the only true lock of the current lines. I think the odds of Sonnen finishing Jones are literally less than 1%. 1% would be generous.

Also, played Nelson -175 over Santiago.

love that line on gunnar. fockin eurobook i presume.

[Grabaka]

love that line on gunnar. fockin eurobook i presume.

Paddy

[MD]

love that line on gunnar. fockin eurobook i presume.

I've been touting Gunnar for years, but the more I watch, the less I like the bet, to be completely honest with you.

[MD]

[MD]

Only one Bellator play: Large on Eduardo Dantas, in what is my biggest play of the year so far. Lock it up couzinz.

A few large plays coming up for me in the next few weeks, also.

[PunisherIND]

that shit was brutal.

did you see the highlights of dustin jacoby winning that kickboxing tourny? 24 hours notice. 3 tkos in one night. pretty nuts. there was a nasty ko in that event. guy seized up pretty bad.

[MD]

Putting more down on Eduardo Dantas. Huge bet for me, biggest of the year so far.

[Sacrelicious]

How'd you manage that one? I mean they both seem to have small hogs.

[MD]

How'd you manage that one? I mean they both seem to have small hogs.

You have to handicap according to hog potential. Dantas has a babyhog, yes, but he hasn't even hit puberty yet, so his growth potential is massive. Could see a growth spurt at any moment.

[MD]

Elvis Mutapcic -190 moderate-large over Sam Alvey. Felt as if Alvey's TUF stint pushed the line out of the absurd territories it should have been in. Elvis by domination. Very heavy line movement towards Mustapcic, though. To be honest, there's probably still value at -350. Alvey's just completely outmatched here.

[Sacrelicious]

You have to handicap according to hog potential. Dantas has a babyhog, yes, but he hasn't even hit puberty yet, so his growth potential is massive. Could see a growth spurt at any moment.

^ Some inspiring wisdom here brahs.

[MD]

Mutapcic and Alvey next. A little bit worried about this fight, due to Alvey's durability and size. He's got a very, very good chin, good cardio, and is a decent wrestler. Mutapcic looked mediocre in his last fight, and can is known to fade. If Alvey makes it out of the second round, he's got a decent shot at this. The problem is that Mutapcic is just so much faster. Alvey is too slow and plodding, and his defence is suspect. His reach won't be as big a factor due to the speed discrepancy.

Mutapcic should walk through him, but expect a rough night if it makes it to the third.

[MD]

Jesus. That guillotine was a terrible decision.

[Wilfred]

When he said and still, my feed was choppy and I though they were saying Alve lol. Thought there was a robbery.

[MD]

Elvis Mutapcic -190 moderate-large over Sam Alvey.

Mutapcic takes the decision in what was a clear but competitive fight. Good fight, very enjoyable.

When he said and still, my feed was choppy and I though they were saying Alve lol. Thought there was a robbery.

I personally gave Mutapcic all five rounds, but the third was close.

No argument for an Alvey win, even with the point deduction, in my opinion. What'd you think of the fight?

[Wilfred]

Good fight, Can't believe he went for the submission. We see that far to often in MMA where they could just end it if they keep striking but go for the submission.

[MD]

So, my plays for today are as follows.

Props: Sass by submission +200 and +160 small-moderate, Barao by decision +152 small-moderate, Swanson by decision +574 small, Gunnar Nelson by decision +431 moderate, Jimmo by decision +514 small, Manuwa/Diabate over 1.5 +150 small-moderate. The Gunnar line is an interesting case because it's normally very difficult for me to get a moderate bet (even by prop standards) down on one line, because as soon as I bet, they change the line. I bet the decision line, however, and they reset it and let me bet it again without changing the line. Lucky me.

As for my straight plays, Nedkov +100 small-moderate, Swanson -150 and -105 moderate-large, Barao -283 (and some other assorted lines, most of which are under -300) large, Diabate +210 moderate, Riddle +215 moderate, Nelson -175 moderate-large.

Nedkov is a pretty tough guy with pretty bad cardio, and there honestly isn't a ton of value in either direction, but I favour him slightly, just enough to make a bet. Swanson, I have to bet reasonably big on. I just see him having too many advantages. My gut tells me that Poirier is going to win, and win convincingly, which initially stopped me from making it anything more than a moderate wager, but I've chosen to ignore it. Swanson is probably the better striker, is fantastic at getting back to his feet when taken down, and has legitimate KO power. Poirier, on the other hand, is pretty mediocre off of his back, and his hands are very lacking. Advantages for Swanson wherever the fight goes, although it's a winnable fight for Poirier. Barao is better than Mayday everywhere, and he'll use his jab and shockingly consistent striking defence to batter him to a very clear decision, or possibly a submission, if he chooses to take McDonald down. Diabate has a big height and reach edge, and is a better technical striker than Manuwa. Given Manuwa's athleticism and his ability to force his opponent to move into his strikes, it is, again, a very winnable fight for him, but Diabate should be a slight favourite in my opinion. Riddle just scares me; he should win if he takes Mills down, which he should be able to do, but he's an absolute moron and seems to insist that he's going to stand and bang with him. Do your career and my bankroll a favour and lay all over him brah.

I've been contemplating a play on Grispi all day, and the only thing that's stopping me is that I haven't had the time to watch more footage. Everything tells me that Grispi will submit him in the first, though.

If anyone wants my analysis of any of the other fights on the card, feel free to ask. And yes bros, I will be live betting. <3

EDIT: Just played Grispi by submission +335 small. Best prop for that fight I think.

[NunyaBidness]

Gunnar Nelson by decision +431 moderate. The Gunnar line is an interesting case because it's normally very difficult for me to get a moderate bet (even by prop standards) down on one line, because as soon as I bet, they change the line. I bet the decision line, however, and they reset it and let me bet it again without changing the line. Lucky me.

Nice catch. I was happy with +242.

[MD]

Played Jimmo by decision +514 small. Ridiculous line. He's as grinding a fighter as there is in the LHW division.

[Rubber Guard]

So what are you so far? 0-3?

Goodluck the rest of the way and with your live betting. Gunnar will come through for you...hopefully not by sub. Dogs will have to keep barking for you.

I like Poirier though. By dec was at +411 the other day. Which was a great line.

[MD]

So what are you so far? 0-3?

Goodluck the rest of the way and with your live betting. Gunnar will come through for you...hopefully not by sub. Dogs will have to keep barking for you.

I like Poirier though. By dec was at +411 the other day. Which was a great line.

You sound upset.

[Rubber Guard]

Not really. I'm just tracking your picks, you are the master around here.

Good hit on Riddle. Where did you find that +500 dec prop? There was no chance he won by anything other. Crazy where the straight odds ended up.

[MD]

Not really. I'm just tracking your picks, you are the master around here.

Good hit on Riddle. Where did you find that +500 dec prop? There was no chance he won by anything other. Crazy where the straight odds ended up.

The Jimmo play? 5Dimes. It closed at +610, though, so I suppose I should have waited on it.

[MD]

So what are you so far? 0-3?

I bet you feel silly now.

[KushMoney]

What's next MD?

[MD]

I like Diabate here. Not by much, but I think he should be a slight favourite. Big reach and height edge, and a technical striking edge. Manuwa has a clear route to victory if he tries to take it to the ground, however.

[Rubber Guard]

I bet you feel silly now.

No, not that silly.

[MD]

Dem freak injuries. Oh well, that's the risk I take betting on MMA. Good showing by Manuwa, simply because he showed enough fight IQ to shoot double legs against a guy with no ground game. It would have been absurd to just stand with him at range.

No, not that silly.

Good stuff.

For your record books, I'll be up as long as Barao wins, even if Swanson loses and the decision prop bombs.