MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

yasa exactly! to show you i have more SBR points than you have real money
how else would you see if i didnt move it dumbass?

LOL.

Like an internet peacock uploading its feathers. That is pathetic.

[Dwil125]

you went 2/8 so far out of your 9 total bets..
but you're still good cause you'll be up if you manage to hit your last bet and go 3/9
you're a joke buddy

Who are these guys, and where do they come from? I never see them posting their analysis or picks, but they come on other bettors pages who there not as good as bashing picks

[MD]

Who are these guys, and where do they come from? I never see them posting their analysis or picks, but they come on other bettors pages who there not as good as bashing picks

How dare you. I'll have you know that Hannibal has won almost 10000 SBR points, a figure which most of us can only dream of. At this rate, he'll be able to afford a Playstation Vita by the end of February.

In seriousness, he got upset in another thread because I said that Glover is a mediocre striker, and now he's doing the whole "bring up our argument in every thread" thing that is so popular amongst the lower levels of internet forums. Sad, but we've all got to occupy our time somehow.

[PunisherIND]

A

In other news, contemplating playing Rashad by decision, also. May wait for a drop in odds

Love this play. Got the opener at -125. Dont think the odds will get much better though.

[MD]

I've been working more on my general gambling game recently so I haven't had much time to study this card. Pretty much all prop plays:

Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
Overeem wins in round 1* +135
Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220

Risky, but I expect value.

The fight I studied the most is Hieron vs Woodley and that fight is a killer to call. Hieron's takedown defence is outstanding, but he's a very passive striker and it tends to cost him rounds. His passiveness and his willingness to let Askren throw looping punches in round one of their fight cost him the Bellator championship. Woodley probably can't take Hieron down and hold him there for three rounds, but he's athletic enough, powerful enough and, most importantly, fast enough to pin Hieron against the cage, do enough to remain competitive on the feet and win a decision. The fight is as close to 50/50 as any I've seen recently. I don't think Hieron will finish Woodley, so +220 on an event I see happening 50% of the time is pretty good.

McCall's motivation coming into this fight is in question again, and he's a fighter who has a tendency to under-perform when he's not at his best mentally. Against Joseph Benavidez, that could very well lead to him being finished. The points handicap is the best prop for this fight by a mile. That, and the extremely questionable +900~ TKO line.

Fitch will Fitch, Reem bettors should play this prop as he hasn't finished an opponent outside of the first round in a very long time. The only time in his last dozen or so fights where the fight has made it out of the first was against Werdum. Aldo play is risky, especially given Edgar's tendency to steal decisions, but I think Aldo wins a very large percentage of the time, so getting those odds on a decision prop is gold.

Can't be assed listing my bet sizing for props, as it's hard to get much money down on them anyway, but the Fitch prop and the points handicap are the biggest, then Overeem, then Evans, who honestly is horrendously overvalued in this fight against a superior boxer with rapidly growing takedown defence, but I'm not going to bet on Nogueira with a small chance of a return, even if there's value there, simply due to my time constraints. I bought the card on UFC.com for €12.99. Unreal. Enjoy the fights, brosephs.

[Grabaka]

Youll be a minute behind on UFC.tv
Take it into mind if live betting
I have Fitch Dec and Hieron Dec too
GL

[Dwil125]

I agree with you on hieron, I think I'm going to add more on him.

[MD]

Thanks G, I wasn't aware of that. Much obliged.

I agree with you on hieron, I think I'm going to add more on him.

I wouldn't recommend it. I think Hieron has the skills to win, but his passiveness is worrying. Woodley has a couple of clear paths to victory, and I smell a questionable decision in this fight.

[vikesbills24]

Hieron is way to passive on his feet. Good wrestling TD, but he doesn't have enough skill to win standing up. Woodley's the more explosive puncher and I expect him to use that. It's going to be a close fight, but Woodley has enough flashy boxing skill to beat Hieron on the feet. I also don't really think he deserves to be in the UFC....Woodley does in my estimation.

This fight going 3 rounds is my best estimation. Wouldn't bet anything on Hieron winning by dec. however. If he is going to win, it's going to be by decision, however.

[Dwil125]

Woodleys not going to use anything but wrestling in that fight, I think im going to do a straight play on the over 2.5 also. It was -190 last i checked.

[MD]

Hieron is way to passive on his feet. Good wrestling TD, but he doesn't have enough skill to win standing up. Woodley's the more explosive puncher and I expect him to use that. It's going to be a close fight, but Woodley has enough flashy boxing skill to beat Hieron on the feet. I also don't really think he deserves to be in the UFC....Woodley does in my estimation.

This fight going 3 rounds is my best estimation. Wouldn't bet anything on Hieron winning by dec. however. If he is going to win, it's going to be by decision, however.

Hieron is the far more skilled striker. Woodley's power, speed and athleticism combined with Hieron's unwillingness to push the pace are the only reason this fight is as close as it is. Hieron certainly belongs in the UFC, I thought he beat Ellenberger.

[MD]

I've posted these parlays before, or most of them at least, so posting here again just to have them on this page:

				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
				Pending	4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
				Pending	4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

+1000~

				Win	12/15/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision
				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1107 Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision

+4100

				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision

Just under +1600.

				Pending	4/27/13 5:00pm Boxing Fighting 602 Sergio Gabriel Martinez -1050* vs Martin Murray
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -225* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -260* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -300* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

+650.

The first two parlays have some serious scratch on them.

[MD]

Pending	2/2/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1006 Not Edgar inside distance -925* vs Edgar wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1110 Not Evans inside distance -262* vs Evans wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1410 Not McCall inside distance -1525* vs McCall wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1510 Not Tibau inside distance -550* vs Tibau wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 9:00pm Props Fighting 1606 Not Hieron inside distance -585* vs Hieron wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2006 Not Figueroa inside distance -590* vs Figueroa wins inside distance

+160

[Sacrelicious]

Excellent plays MD, I'm staying away from the props and betting straight up but it looks like are on several of the same fighters. Lets get er done!

[MD]

2/2/2013 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo* -170 vs Frankie Edgar 2/2/2013 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1503 Dunham/Tibau goes 3 round distance* -195 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

+140. Should be all for tonight, unless I decide to play Aldo straight.

[Bradbatross]

Woodleys not going to use anything but wrestling in that fight, I think im going to do a straight play on the over 2.5 also. It was -190 last i checked.

Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt. He's going to clip Heiron with some hard shots.

[MD]

Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt.

It really, really didn't. Marquardt is very hittable. I think the striking will be competitive, although Hieron has a huge technical edge.

[Bradbatross]

Heiron definitely has the technical edge but Woodley has the power edge and Heiron is definitely hittable when he's worrying about defending the take down.

[MD]

Playing Dunham straight.

[Sacrelicious]

Playing Dunham straight.

I like it.

[Mercersux]

Playing Dunham straight.

Was thinking of dunham but now that ive seen Your on it...POUND TOWN !!!

[MD]

^ It's a pretty close fight, I just think Dunham has more ways to win. I was originally going to avoid, but the talk of Tibau getting married tonight and his always-tough weight cut, combined with Dunham's unreal cardio... enough to push me towards a play.

[MD]

I have Isaac +160 in live. Pretty decent chance Yves gets an undeserved decision here.

[MD]

Lucky me.

[MD]

Another note on the Dunham fight: I expect it to be ultra-competitive, with Dunham's speed and ability to avoid the clinch, combined with his cardio, leading him to a decision win, but it really is a close fight. Lots of room for robbery. Luckily for us, Tibau has a supsect chin, and Dunham has no problem throwing huge knees and kicks. Dunham probably has the ground advantage, also. If the fight is finished, I'd expect it to be on Dunham's terms. I'll spend most of the fight expecting Dunham to blast Tibau with a head kick and finish him on the ground. Still, close, and I'm not overly confident.

[Bradbatross]

Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt. He's going to clip Heiron with some hard shots.

Ended pretty much how I thought.

[MD]

2/2/13 11:28pm

$50.00

$550.00

$600.00

Win

2/2/13 11:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1202 Antonio Silva +1100* vs Alistair Overeem

Was +1100, not +1500. Oops.

All of the mad, and all of the moniez.

My other two live bets:

I played over 2.5 at -260 at the end of round one to hedge out of my Fitch bet. If Maia finishes I'll be burnt.

Playing Green +480. Not expecting it to cash, but good value in a close fight.

Posted during the fights, Hannibro, just incase you want to come at me again. You can go check the timestamps in the UFC 156 thread.

Also, need Not Evans Inside Distance to effectively seal my parlay.

[MD]

Lost these hedges:

Playing Edgar +350 live in play.

Very small bet on Frankie +700, just incase.

And these parlays crashed and burned:

				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
				Pending	4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
				Pending	4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

				Win	12/15/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision
				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1107 Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision

				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision

				Pending	4/27/13 5:00pm Boxing Fighting 602 Sergio Gabriel Martinez -1050* vs Martin Murray
				Win	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -225* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -260* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -300* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

Lost these prop plays:

Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
Overeem wins in round 1* +135

And cashed the following:

Playing Aldo -200 moderate-large.

Putting a little on Nog +440 live. Not much, it won't affect my night if I lose, but I thought Nog won that round.

More on Nog +250. I think he's up two rounds, at least one for sure.

2/2/13 11:28pm

$50.00

$550.00

$600.00

Win

2/2/13 11:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1202 Antonio Silva +1100* vs Alistair Overeem

I played over 2.5 at -260 at the end of round one to hedge out of my Fitch bet. If Maia finishes I'll be burnt.

Playing Green +480. Not expecting it to cash, but good value in a close fight.

I have Isaac +160 in live. Pretty decent chance Yves gets an undeserved decision here.

Playing Dunham straight.

2/2/2013 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo* -170 vs Frankie Edgar 2/2/2013 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1503 Dunham/Tibau goes 3 round distance* -195 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Pending	2/2/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1006 Not Edgar inside distance -925* vs Edgar wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1110 Not Evans inside distance -262* vs Evans wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1410 Not McCall inside distance -1525* vs McCall wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1510 Not Tibau inside distance -550* vs Tibau wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 9:00pm Props Fighting 1606 Not Hieron inside distance -585* vs Hieron wins inside distance
				Pending	2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2006 Not Figueroa inside distance -590* vs Figueroa wins inside distance

+160

Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220

I basically printed money tonight. Extremely profitable night pulled out of my ass when I was expecting to finish poorly after the first couple of main card fights. Also, I scored the main event 49-46 Aldo, for what it's worth. Excellent card and excellent results.

[Hannibal]

I've been working more on my general gambling game recently so I haven't had much time to study this card. Pretty much all prop plays:

Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
Overeem wins in round 1* +135
Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220

Risky, but I expect value.

once again you get worked on the majority of your bets posted before the event
but still you've had another great night!

[MMAbetMASTA]

man majority of your initial plays bust and live betting somehow sets you in profit, wish I had them live options....

Sounds like live betting was a goldmine and savior for people tonight, books done fuckkked up with those settings seems like there was some ridiculous value.

[MD]

once again you get worked on the majority of your bets posted before the event
but still you've had another great night!

You can feel free to check the time stamps on my posts; click the blue arrows next to them. The only one posted after the fact was the Bigfoot play, and that was because I didn't make it in time. Anyone actively posting in the thread, and especially the live bettors, would be able to confirm this. Most of my live plays were also posted by others in the thread. Beelze was on a lot of the same plays I was.

You sound bitter as hell. What's wrong brah? You have a rough night?

[face]

good thread. will check this thread next time






got shit pushed in like every other square.

[MD]

^Thanks bro.

Oh, also, Hannibal, my biggest play of the night was Aldo moderate-large, which I posted before the fight started.

Watching the post-fight; is the scoring really that controversial? Most seem to agree Aldo won.

[Hannibal]

i'm just busting your balls
I feel you're off sometimes but you do have some moments of insight

it's not like you're sacrilicious or that pouyopopopop guy

[DeFactoCrippler]

You can feel free to check the time stamps on my posts; click the blue arrows next to them. The only one posted after the fact was the Bigfoot play, and that was because I didn't make it in time. Anyone actively posting in the thread, and especially the live bettors, would be able to confirm this. Most of my live plays were also posted by others in the thread. Beelze was on a lot of the same plays I was.

I can confirm that it is difficult to post the live bets in time.

but if you couldnt post it in time why past post it

and make a big deal out of it

you certainly didnt help anyone by doing so

not to mention that it is rather "convenient"

that you past post big live wager

recouping all the losses from your pre posted losers

but who am i to question