EP36's College Dogpile

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #281
    June 11th [Eugene Super Regional] Oregon-Kent State Under 9 [+100]
    Gold goes for Oregon. Skulina for Kent State. Gold has a 3.50 ERA. Skulina is at 3.84. This game is likely to wind up being decided by the bullpens. Gold has had trouble going deep into games, so if they get 5-6 out of him and the game is even, that will be a win for the Ducks. Skulina is likelier to go deep into the game and can be dominating at time as his 93 Ks in 96 IP shows. This series has been about pitching and in the case of Oregon really, a continued lack of hitting. I don't think either coach is going to shy away from going to their pens early if need be and both have solid & versatile arms ready to go.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #282
      Baylor-Arkansas pitching match-up likely to be Tyler Bremer for BU & Randall Fant for Arkansas. This also shapes up to be a bullpen type game, at least that is the Hogs M.O. with Fant. They want him to go a couple turns thrrough the order and then turn it over to their bullpen. That should be good for Arkansas which has a solid pen with a lot of quality. Baylor has solid arms as well and I would be shocked if Max Garner sets foot into another save situation today. Part of last night's meltdown was not his fault, but he did no favors with a leadoff walk and a hit batsman. I still think the Bears have the edge with the bats. Problem yesterday was getting RISP home. They need to do a better job of that and keep the pressure off themselves late in the game. Not sure if I am going to play anything in this one as I have the Baylor Future pending ... likely to hedge some on Arkansas, but believe Baylor is the better team.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #283
        Great pitching all-around tonight. Need Baylor to scratch a couple runs across and take this shit. Assholes have left the bases loaded a couple times again tonight. This just has the feel of a walk off job.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #284
          How many innings do you get the leadoff man and not get a run Baylor? They're just asking to get nipped late in this game again.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #285
            Bring it Nostradamus. Bottom 9. 0-0. Bears up. Walk off time f-sticks, do it - do it.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #286
              Wow. Flukey pop fly drops for a hit and Kent State is Cinderella #2 in Omaha!
              Comment
              • ParlayininHTown
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-27-10
                • 7561

                #287
                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                Wow. Flukey pop fly drops for a hit and Kent State is Cinderella #2 in Omaha!

                Imagine if we had future bets on Stony Brook AND Kent State to advance ... Some lucky bastard out there somewhere probably did that.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #288
                  I had my finger on Kent State, but decided to concentrate on just the Baylor one this round. I thought Kent was the best shot to cash for the series as a dog. Oregon was the weakest favorite on the board in the Supers IMO. Baylor is just leaving so many opps out there. Figure sooner or later they are going to F up and lose. Just feels like they have had every shot to get a run and cannot do it.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #289
                    And there is Arkansas taking the lead in the 10th. Glad I hedged on these kunts. Baylor really has no business advancing with all the failures they've had the last two games - but I'd like to see a non-SEC team go to Omaha.

                    Sure they might make it interesting in the bottom of the 10th - but they haven't knocked in anything the last two games when they needed it - outside of a walkoff homer, Bears are done.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #290
                      Completed CWS Field:

                      Florida-S.Carolina
                      Kent State-Arkansas
                      Stony Brook-UCLA
                      Arizona-FSU

                      All four 1st round games look absolutely awesome. Florida-SC is going to be epic because you'll have either the #1 club or the defending Champs in the loser's bracket right away. Will be working on some previews. Super Regionals weren't great, but on the bright side - last year the Regionals/Supers were good and then I sucked in the CWS - so maybe some reverse mojo.
                      Comment
                      • CharlestonCock
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-05-10
                        • 485

                        #291
                        Numbers are out on 5 dimes. I cant believe Stony Brook is +3.5 at -280. Might bet the dam farm on that, no joke. Pretty sharp lines on Zona and the Criminoles. Kent St is worth a look at +155 and I dont know what to think about the Cocks and Gators....its hard to be against the Gamecocks in the CWS.... 21 Wins in a row but I fear that may end Saturday night
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #292
                          2012 Record: 26-22 [+10.18]

                          College World Series Preview: Bracket One/Day 1


                          Great guide to the teams here


                          Bracket One
                          Arizona
                          UCLA
                          Florida State
                          Stony Brook

                          Breakdown
                          Offensively, all these teams can hit. UCLA though I think is the most vulnerable to getting shut down on any given night. They lack the every game explosiveness of the other three teams in this bracket and will need their pitching to set the tone. If UCLA can keep the games lower scoring, their bullpen might be the best in this region with David Berg leading the way. From top to bottom, UCLA probably has the best pitching depth with Florida State and Stony Brook close behind. I rank Arizona just a bit behind the others due to the bullpen questions, but there is no question that the likes of Heyer, Wade and Farris can keep the team in games and let the offense rally to do the rest. FSU & Arizona have had some fielding issues, both just under .970 field percentage while UCLA & Stony Brook are at .976 and .978.

                          As crazy as it might be, Stony Brook on paper is the most complete team in this region. They have the ability to get on base and manufacture runs along with exploding for massive innings. The pitching performance of the Seawolves in the Baton Rouge Super Regional opened some eyes and should have all the teams in this bracket concerned. They are also the only team who faced adversity in both postseason rounds, having to go through multiple elimination games. UCLA has the experience of going to Omaha in 2010 with some of the same players still on the squad. FSU & Arizona have the offense to overcome any pitching hiccups. The region appears wide open.

                          Futures
                          Stony Brook to Win Bracket One +540
                          Florida State to Win Bracket One +175

                          Stony Brook vs. UCLA [5pm ET]
                          Without a doubt, Stony Brook is going to be the adopted team in Omaha this year. The Seawolves are hard to dislike and have shown that they can win in any way, shape or form against anyone. In the Regionals, they simply outslugged their way to the Super Regionals. In Baton Rouge though it was a different story as they used timely hitting and fantastic pitching to beat LSU in three games. That experience should serve Stony Brook well in this tournament as they will face great pitching and great offense in just about any game they will play. UCLA used its pitching mostly to get to Omaha. They shut down TCU in the Super Regionals and had few issues in doing the same thing in their Regional. Their offense is still somewhat of a question mark here. The Bruins did bat .309 as a team, but they rely more on execution than the explosiveness that Stony Brook throws out there with their gaudy .334 team average. The Seawolves scored over 80 more runs than UCLA and had 88 more extra base hits. This is a UCLA team that doesn't look like it can afford to get into a big hole early and battle back against a power offense like Stony Brook or any of the top tier offenses in this bracket. Pitching-wise, Stony Brook actually sports a better team ERA than UCLA for the season. It will be ace vs. ace in the opener on Friday with Tyler Johnson for Stony Brook and Adam Plutko for UCLA. Johnson has a sub-2.00 ERA and relies more on control and location. That worked to perfection against LSU as Johnson pitched a CG, allowing just four hits with four walks and just one strikeout. Plutko is a different beast with strikeout stuff [92 Ks in 112.1 IP]. He has a 2.56 ERA. Plutko has been lights out in the postseason, shutting out Creighton on three hits in the Regionals and allowing just two solo homers and six hits overall in seven innings in helping UCLA beat TCU in the Super Regional opener last week.

                          The books have set the spread @ 3.5 for this one with UCLA the favorite. The juice on the +3.5 is ridiculous @ -280, but in what figures to be a close game that Stony Brook definitely has every chance to win - it would be wise to use Stony Brook +3.5 in a parlay somewhere. Waiting for the moneyline price, but it should represent something that will be hard to pass up.

                          Florida State vs. Arizona [9pm ET]
                          Two highly potent offenses meet in the other Bracket One opener. Arizona has the better team average at .333, while FSU hit just .281 - but the run differential is small with the Wildcats scoring 451 runs and the Seminoles tallying 437. It's hard to separate the two from an explosiveness standpoint, especially after FSU laid 35 runs on Stanford in two games in the Super Regionals. Arizona continued their offensive onslaught in the Supers with 14 runs in two games, that came on the heels of the Wildcats crushing the Regional round with 47 runs in three games. Arizona won't have the large alleys of Hi-Corbett Field to gash, but TD Ameritrade Park could still be a solid park for them with its smaller dimensions. Both teams have hittable pitching staffs with FSU sporting a 3.53 ERA and Arizona carrying the highest team ERA in Omaha @ 3.93. Kurt Heyer will be opening against Brandon Leibrandt. Leibrandt was dominant in his freshman campaign and looked great in the Supers against Stanford, outshining Stanford's Mark Appel. Heyer struggled a bit against St.John's in the Supers, allowing 17 hits and six runs in 9.1 IP. He was a warrior though and gives Arizona innings and a chance to win almost every time he steps on the mound. Arizona's starters went deep in every game in the Regionals and Supers meaning that the bullpen got very little work. That is an area that could haunt Arizona at the CWS. Their bullpen is definitely not a strong suit. They have some good arms, but most of the teams in Omaha have better versaility. FSU for one with their all-World closer Benincasa. If they lead late, he is going to shut the door. If Arizona's starters falter early, it will be interesting to see how their bullpen responds. FSU's freshman combo of Leibrandt and Compton has been strong all season - but now that a National Championship is in play, do these Freshman stand tall still or crack?

                          The books have the total set @ 12.5 in this one with the juice on the under. Florida State is the slight favorite at -140 with Arizona at +100. In its first year, TD Ameritrade Park played mostly lower in the College World Series with only four of 14 games hitting for double figures. It appeared very pitcher friendly in 2011, so until proven otherwise tread lightly on these large totals. From a side perspective, Florida State looks to have the pitching edge if their youth continue to pitching like veterans. The bullpen edge may be the deciding factor if FSU gets on top.

                          *I will have selections for tomorrow's games once they list a moneyline for the Stony Brook-UCLA game and hopefully offer the ability to pick alternate totals.
                          Comment
                          • purplehazae479
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 06-02-09
                            • 226

                            #293
                            TD Ameritrade Park Omaha NE - Home team may not necessarily bat last
                            06/15/12 301 Stony Brook
                            XXXX
                            +250 OFF OFF
                            17:00 ET UCLA
                            XXXX
                            -350 OFF OFF
                            TD Ameritrade Park Omaha NE - Home team may not necessarily bat last
                            06/15/12 303 Arizona
                            XXXX
                            +105 OFF OFF
                            21:00 ET Florida State
                            XXXX
                            -135 OFF OFF
                            06/16/12 304 COLLEGE BASEBALL WORLD SERIES OFF OFF OFF
                            21:00 ET Saturday-June-16th OFF OFF OFF
                            TD Ameritrade Park Omaha NE - Home team may not necessarily bat last
                            06/16/12 305 Kent State
                            XXXX
                            +145 OFF OFF
                            17:00 ET Arkansas
                            XXXX
                            -180 OFF OFF
                            TD Ameritrade Park Omaha NE - Home team may not necessarily bat last
                            06/16/12 307 South Carolina
                            XXXX
                            +160 OFF OFF
                            21:00 ET Florida
                            XXXX
                            -200 OFF OFF
                            Comment
                            • gregm
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-14-11
                              • 3535

                              #294
                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                              2012 Record: 26-22 [+10.18]

                              College World Series Preview: Bracket One/Day 1


                              Great guide to the teams here


                              Bracket One
                              Arizona
                              UCLA
                              Florida State
                              Stony Brook

                              Breakdown
                              Offensively, all these teams can hit. UCLA though I think is the most vulnerable to getting shut down on any given night. They lack the every game explosiveness of the other three teams in this bracket and will need their pitching to set the tone. If UCLA can keep the games lower scoring, their bullpen might be the best in this region with David Berg leading the way. From top to bottom, UCLA probably has the best pitching depth with Florida State and Stony Brook close behind. I rank Arizona just a bit behind the others due to the bullpen questions, but there is no question that the likes of Keyer, Wade and Farris can keep the team in games and let the offense rally to do the rest. FSU & Arizona have had some fielding issues, both just under .970 field percentage while UCLA & Stony Brook are at .976 and .978.

                              As crazy as it might be, Stony Brook on paper is the most complete team in this region. They have the ability to get on base and manufacture runs along with exploding for massive innings. The pitching performance of the Seawolves in the Baton Rouge Super Regional opened some eyes and should have all the teams in this bracket concerned. They are also the only team who faced adversity in both postseason rounds, having to go through multiple elimination games. UCLA has the experience of going to Omaha in 2010 with some of the same players still on the squad. FSU & Arizona have the offense to overcome any pitching hiccups. The region appears wide open.

                              Futures
                              Stony Brook to Win Bracket One +540
                              Florida State to Win Bracket One +175

                              Stony Brook vs. UCLA [5pm ET]
                              Without a doubt, Stony Brook is going to be the adopted team in Omaha this year. The Seawolves are hard to dislike and have shown that they can win in any way, shape or form against anyone. In the Regionals, they simply outslugged their way to the Super Regionals. In Baton Rouge though it was a different story as they used timely hitting and fantastic pitching to beat LSU in three games. That experience should serve Stony Brook well in this tournament as they will face great pitching and great offense in just about any game they will play. UCLA used its pitching mostly to get to Omaha. They shut down TCU in the Super Regionals and had few issues in doing the same thing in their Regional. Their offense is still somewhat of a question mark here. The Bruins did bat .309 as a team, but they rely more on execution than the explosiveness that Stony Brook throws out there with their gaudy .334 team average. The Seawolves scored over 80 more runs than UCLA and had 88 more extra base hits. This is a UCLA team that doesn't look like it can afford to get into a big hole early and battle back against a power offense like Stony Brook or any of the top tier offenses in this bracket. Pitching-wise, Stony Brook actually sports a better team ERA than UCLA for the season. It will be ace vs. ace in the opener on Friday with Tyler Johnson for Stony Brook and Adam Plutko for UCLA. Johnson has a sub-2.00 ERA and relies more on control and location. That worked to perfection against LSU as Johnson pitched a CG, allowing just four hits with four walks and just one strikeout. Plutko is a different beast with strikeout stuff [92 Ks in 112.1 IP]. He has a 2.56 ERA. Plutko has been lights out in the postseason, shutting out Creighton on three hits in the Regionals and allowing just two solo homers and six hits overall in seven innings in helping UCLA beat TCU in the Super Regional opener last week.

                              The books have set the spread @ 3.5 for this one with UCLA the favorite. The juice on the +3.5 is ridiculous @ -280, but in what figures to be a close game that Stony Brook definitely has every chance to win - it would be wise to use Stony Brook +3.5 in a parlay somewhere. Waiting for the moneyline price, but it should represent something that will be hard to pass up.

                              Florida State vs. Arizona [9pm ET]
                              Two highly potent offenses meet in the other Bracket One opener. Arizona has the better team average at .333, while FSU hit just .281 - but the run differential is small with the Wildcats scoring 451 runs and the Seminoles tallying 437. It's hard to separate the two from an explosiveness standpoint, especially after FSU laid 35 runs on Stanford in two games in the Super Regionals. Arizona continued their offensive onslaught in the Supers with 14 runs in two games, that came on the heels of the Wildcats crushing the Regional round with 47 runs in three games. Arizona won't have the large alleys of Hi-Corbett Field to gash, but TD Ameritrade Park could still be a solid park for them with its smaller dimensions. Both teams have hittable pitching staffs with FSU sporting a 3.53 ERA and Arizona carrying the highest team ERA in Omaha @ 3.93. Kurt Heyer will be opening against Brandon Leibrandt. Leibrandt was dominant in his freshman campaign and looked great in the Supers against Stanford, outshining Stanford's Mark Appel. Heyer struggled a bit against St.John's in the Supers, allowing 17 hits and six runs in 9.1 IP. He was a warrior though and gives Arizona innings and a chance to win almost every time he steps on the mound. Arizona's starters went deep in every game in the Regionals and Supers meaning that the bullpen got very little work. That is an area that could haunt Arizona at the CWS. Their bullpen is definitely not a strong suit. They have some good arms, but most of the teams in Omaha have better versaility. FSU for one with their all-World closer Benincasa. If they lead late, he is going to shut the door. If Arizona's starters falter early, it will be interesting to see how their bullpen responds. FSU's freshman combo of Leibrandy and Compton has been strong all season - but now that a National Championship is in play, do these Freshman stand tall still or crack?

                              The books have the total set @ 12.5 in this one with the juice on the under. Florida State is the slight favorite at -140 with Arizona at +100. In its first year, TD Ameritrade Park played mostly lower in the College World Series with only four of 14 games hitting for double figures. It appeared very pitcher friendly in 2011, so until proven otherwise tread lightly on these large totals. From a side perspective, Florida State looks to have the pitching edge if their youth continue to pitching like veterans. The bullpen edge may be the deciding factor if FSU gets on top.

                              *I will have selections for tomorrow's games once they list a moneyline for the Stony Brook-UCLA game and hopefully offer the ability to pick alternate totals.
                              Fantastic write up EP
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #295
                                Thanks greg. I am going to work on the other bracket tonight while watching these openers. Again to highlight a point - the park in Omaha appears to play heavy towards UNDERS at least as far as big double digit totals. 10 out of 14 finished under ten runs last year so watch the first games closely to see if that holds.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #296
                                  Lines have been adjusted heavily if those listed above were correct. Stony Brook +180/UCLA -240 and 5Dimes currently does not have spreads listed any longer. Total has been dropped to 9.5 FSU out to -160. Going to let the lines settle in during the day and see if they put spreads back up for SB/UCLA.
                                  Comment
                                  • purplehazae479
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 06-02-09
                                    • 226

                                    #297
                                    yeah my book now has stony at plus 200, i took it before it got any lower

                                    haven't touched the fsu game though, waiting for your thoughts on that eaglesphan
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #298
                                      June 15th [CWS] Stony Brook +200
                                      Joining the parade on the money line in this one. Plutko is going to be a tough nut to crack, but Stony Brook saw pitching equally as good/probably better in Baton Rouge last weekend and really should have won that series in just two games. If they can jump on Plutko early, UCLA may struggle to rally with an offense that lacks explosiveness. Very important that Tyler Johnson comes out and establishes himself on the mound and shuts the Bruins down early.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #299
                                        Originally posted by purplehazae479
                                        yeah my book now has stony at plus 200, i took it before it got any lower

                                        haven't touched the fsu game though, waiting for your thoughts on that eaglesphan
                                        I'm going over some stuff for that one. Will post a play if I have one well in advance of the 9pm ET first pitch.
                                        Comment
                                        • purplehazae479
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 06-02-09
                                          • 226

                                          #300
                                          TD Ameritrade Park Omaha NE - Home team may not necessarily bat last
                                          06/15/12 303 Arizona
                                          XXXX
                                          +115 +1.5 (-175) Over 12 (-105)
                                          21:00 ET Florida State
                                          XXXX
                                          -135 -1.5 (+155) Under 12 (-115)
                                          Comment
                                          • CharlestonCock
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 09-05-10
                                            • 485

                                            #301
                                            Rolling with Stony on ML at +190 and took them +1.5 at +120. Also put a little on the under 9.5 at -115. Taking Fla St -1.5 at +160 in late night game, good luck guys and lets go Seawolves!
                                            Comment
                                            • Pew Pew
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-21-10
                                              • 2267

                                              #302
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #303
                                                I dont think I have ever seen a team score 5 on weaker hits than that first inning. AmaIngly bad luck on the ball hitting the bag. Lots of time. SB needs to get that big hit though when they get those runners on.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #304
                                                  This ump's strike zone is ridiculously inconsistent.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CharlestonCock
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 09-05-10
                                                    • 485

                                                    #305
                                                    Yea this ump is really starting to piss me off. He keeps saying "No" for balls and I even think he said "Not even close" once. Still a lot of game left but not how Stony needed to start it.

                                                    I know Pew Pew....I know....
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #306
                                                      If they had held them to five for a few innings, I would take my chances for a rally, but they just seem overwhelmed a bit by the bad luck early. Never count em out till the end, but looks like they will be in the loser's bracket.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #307
                                                        Wow. Terrible call at the plate. SB has shit luck today.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #308
                                                          Going with my gut as it has been sitting on this since lines came out.

                                                          June 15th [CWS]: Arizona-Florida State Over 12 (-115)
                                                          This may be a big total for this ballpark, but I think the large alleys suit Arizona's gap power & Florida State can mash anywhere. Certainly do not expect Heyer to give up 17 hits again, but that is still alarming especially if the Noles jump out early. Leibrandt was great @ home against Stanford and may be immune to freshman jitters, but the Arizona lineup may give him more than Omaha. Just hav the feeling one of these teams is good for 7 or more tonight.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CharlestonCock
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 09-05-10
                                                            • 485

                                                            #309
                                                            Well congrats to the bruins. SHould have known Johnson would have been worn out and I think all the fan fare and being in the spotlight really got to Stony Brook. Looked like they had a lot of nerves in the early goings.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #310
                                                              I really think it was the way UCLA scored. Johnson obviously was not sharp and got worked a little by the ump in the 1st. I think if UCLA was absolutely drilling the ball, it would have been easier to take. But the infield hits, the bad bounces definitely had to rattle them a little. Still, if they get a big hit with the bases loaded in the 2nd - it's a whole new ball game. Credit to Plutko who took advantage of their lack of patience. It will be interesting how they respond because the pressure is on them obviously for elimination - but getting blown out, the pressure might actually be lower if that makes sense.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #311
                                                                Great guide to the teams here


                                                                Bracket Two
                                                                Florida
                                                                South Carolina
                                                                Kent State
                                                                Arkansas

                                                                Breakdown
                                                                Unlike the other bracket, Bracket Two is pitching intensive. S.Carolina, Florida and Arkansas sport the top three ERAs in Omaha and were among the best in the nation. From an offensive standpoint, Florida is a clear cut above the rest - but they do rely on the long ball. Could that be their downfall in cavernous TD Ameritrade Park?

                                                                Florida certainly looks to be the most complete team. South Carolina has the mystique/experience. Arkansas has pitching for days & Kent State may have the benefit of being the team no one is talking about. Game 1 between Florida and South Carolina may be a precursor for more clashes before all is said and done in this bracket. Don't discount Arkansas though. They defy wisdom with their sometimes cold bats, but they beat Florida two of three in SEC play and won one of three against South Carolina - playing them tough in all three. I think it's more important for the Gamecocks to get the opening win so they can be flexible with Roth as the week goes on. Florida has plenty of options in their rotation to feel confident about battling out of the loser's bracket if that is where they fall. Still, I think it will be a big psychological advantage for whichever power gets the W on Saturday.

                                                                Futures
                                                                South Carolina Wins Bracket Two +240
                                                                Arkansas Eliminated First +260

                                                                Florida vs. South Carolina [9pm ET]
                                                                The sexiest match-up by far to start of the Saturday action with SEC rivals going head-2-head. Florida is sending Gamecocks' slayer Brian Johnson to the hill. South Carolina counters with Mr.Postseason, Michael Roth. Roth has become an absolute legend over the course of the past two seasons in Omaha in helping SC to a pair of National Titles. Roth is 6-0 with a 1.09 ERA in the Gamecocks 15 games in the Regionals, Super Regionals & CWS. He tamed Florida, giving up two earned runs in 6.2 IP in SC's only win in four tries against Florida this season. Johnson tossed 15+ innings against SC, allowing just four runs in helping the Gators to a pair of wins over SC. That included a CG effort in the SEC tournament. The one caveat on Johnson is that he has not pitched as a starter since then due to the Gators' rotation. Can he be sharp here? Roth is the type of pitcher who can depress what is easily the most potent offense in this bracket. Florida leads the country with 75 home runs, scoring 386 runs with a .284 average. South Carolina has some pop with 41 long balls, batting .271 and scoring 332 runs. Christian Walker leads the way.South Carolina can also slam the door shut late with Matt Price who has been through the pressure cooker in Omaha. Florida showed a few chinks in their bullpen in their closeout game in the Super Regionals as their bullpen continuously gave up leads late in that game. They have live arms in their bullpen with Austin Maddox as the anchor. Greg Larson & Stephen Rodriguez are heavily leaned on late as well.

                                                                In the four season meetings, Florida outscored S.Carolina 23-17. Johnson's two starts provided the two largest margins of victory @ five and six runs. Conversely, Roth's start resulted in a lopsided 9-3 Gamecocks' win. The total is set at just 7.5 in this one with the two solid starters on the hill. Still. none of the four regular season meetings finished under eight runs so paying the -130 on the Over might be wise. Florida is -180. S.Carolina is +130. Considering the regular season results, it seems pretty fair although I would have expected Roth's name to command SC a lower price.

                                                                Kent State vs. Arkansas [5pm ET]
                                                                Kent State is another Cinderella in Omaha, but they might just have the tools to win a game or two. Kent State will look to David Starn to set the tone in this game. Their ace is 11-3 with a 2.21 ERA. He had some wildness in the Eugene Super Regional, but worked around the walks to keep his team in the game. He won't overpower batters, but he is a precision control pitcher with a good variety of pitches that he throws for strikes. Arkansas counters with their best in D.J. Baxendale who had a 3.18 ERA and 7-5 mark. Baxendale has been roughed up a bit in his two NCAA starts, allowing nine runs in 10 IP. Baylor knocked him out after four innings in the Supers, while he lasted six against Sam Houston State - those four runs were unearned. Arkansas has a deeper pitching staff, tied for the best ERA in Omaha @ 2.90. They have four quality guys, including closer Barrett Astin that they can go to. Arkansas' offense has been its Achilles Heel. The bats are capable, but have gone cold too much in the postseason. They scored on run in each of three games against Baylor, but it was good enough to win the clincher, 1-0. They have survived with their pitching. Kent State has a more even offense, batting .302 as a team with 393 runs scored. George Roberts and Jimmy Ride can flat out rake. The Golden Flashes have been consistent against good pitching in the postseason with timely hitting. They have beaten SEC powerhouse Kentucky twice and PAC-12 pitching in Oregon. Arkansas won't instill fear into them. If Kent State gets a good start from Starn, they can win.

                                                                The total is set at 9 with the juice going slightly to the under. Three of Kent State's last four have finished at five runs, Arkansas has played all six games in the NCAAs at nine or under. The under seems a smart play here until Arkansas proves it can belt out some runs. Kent State is +155, Arkansas is -185. Price seems far inflated in favor of the Razorbacks with Kent State having already proven it can win nailbiters.

                                                                Right now, most likely playing, but still thinking:

                                                                Kent State-Arkansas Under
                                                                Florida-S.Carolina Over
                                                                Kent State ML
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #312
                                                                  So far this over looks like a terrible decision.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Forgot how much I loathe God's reason for the mute button A.K.A. Mike Patrick. One of the most brutal PxP guys in every single sport he does. Guy sounds like he's trying to squeeze a turd out of his ass every call he makes.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Taking this tonight because I have a feeling it could drop in lieu of the continued unders trend at this Ballpark. I think at this point anything that is close to ten, you would have to be stupid like I was tonight to try it. Going to think about the Florida-SC game. May wait to see what the team totals are as well, those are often not touched in the CWS and can be decent shots if you find a good #.

                                                                      June 16th [CWS] Kent State-Arkansas Under 9 [-120]
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Balco10
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 09-11-10
                                                                        • 5478

                                                                        #315
                                                                        BS no live in play on this extra innings...EP bad call on the over here and Stoney Brook who has chance against UCLA. Tomorrow should be a better day for you as agree on the. ARK -Kent under 9.
                                                                        Comment
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