on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-10-12, 07:18 PM

I'm out of this shit.

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 07:32 PM

But but but, it's all money management.

**alexknyc** · 05-10-12, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

But but but, it's all money management.

Surviving these losing streaks is.

**moshi** · 05-10-12, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

Surviving these losing streaks is.

Or you could've just played Cleveland...just sayin'

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 08:02 PM

He has a point

Originally posted by moshi

Or you could've just played Cleveland...just sayin'

**stevex** · 05-10-12, 08:04 PM

Saying you should've played Cleveland after the fact is the most ridiculous statement in this thread so far

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-10-12, 08:08 PM

This system is busted this year. The big name favs are all over-priced and the books are raping the public and wannabe squares like us. I'm going to divide the labby lines into more columns and play the road dogs in these 3 game series from here on out.

**moshi** · 05-10-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Saying you should've played Cleveland after the fact is the most ridiculous statement in this thread so far

No its not. I was the one telling everyone to bet the underdog as the first A bet. No one listened.

**oklahoma** · 05-10-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Saying you should've played Cleveland after the fact is the most ridiculous statement in this thread so far

Na, he's referring to his reverse A Bet theory a few pages back which wouldve cashed here. I do think that teams that were swept that clearly didnt give much fight(Boston/Philly) should not be played again. Thats how I'll play it anyway, which is why I didnt bother with Boston tonight no matter how "low" the line was.

**stevex** · 05-10-12, 08:25 PM

You guys are just thinking in terms of the system not doing so well the last week or so. What happens when the A bets win at a crazy high rate at some point. It all evens out. That's what I had to explain over in the JM NBA thread. Just because the A bets haven't been hitting in a week or so just means that they'll hit at a good rate in the coming weeks. Variance people. Learn it.

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 08:28 PM

Do you guys know that Philly has not been swept at home since 2006?

**dlunc3** · 05-10-12, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Do you guys know that Philly has not been swept at home since 2006?

system play or no system play... I have planned since the loss yesterday on doing a monster chase this weekend at home vs SD. Better pitching matchup all three days.. Worley going, then Doc and Hamels....

**Douchebag50** · 05-10-12, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by Douchebag50

Can't wait to see how many people will get burned on the BOSOX series..I'm playing Cleveland, Cleveland has the edge on every WHIP matchup except tomorrows game although Becket gives way too many fly balls, and since they'll be playing at Fenway that is bad news for Boston...going to be playing the +1.5 line all 3 games and the price won't be much higher than playing the -170 line they'll be charging for Sox...

Yo SteveX...not after the fact, BEFORE! We have to start adding filters and taking into consideration the WHIP and GO/AO of the pitching matchups is just smart handicapping...it's like adding facts to complement the system guidelines...I think you guys call it a filter...

**Douchebag50** · 05-10-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

system play or no system play... I have planned since the loss yesterday on doing a monster chase this weekend at home vs SD. Better pitching matchup all three days.. Worley going, then Doc and Hamels....

Unfortunately Phillies bullpen is the shittiest of both leagues and their starters haven't gotten deep into a game for quite a while...if you plan to play Philly on the 5 innings line, you will most likely recoup, but if you play the whole 9 innings your setting yourself up for disappointment...Just my 2 cents...
OR for the same juice get +1.5 on every game for SD...

**abv** · 05-10-12, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

system play or no system play... I have planned since the loss yesterday on doing a monster chase this weekend at home vs SD. Better pitching matchup all three days.. Worley going, then Doc and Hamels....

Yeah, I plan on getting a little creative as well. Probably going to Martingale our current series as I don't see Boston continuing this likely 1 for 9 stretch at home much longer.

Also, does anyone realize whenever we lose a series it often creates a play in the John Morrison system (hagball's/Wallco's thread)? Won some back from Detroit that way.

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 08:50 PM

I like it, I am from Philly too, no way in hell this team gets swept with those 3 on the mound

Originally posted by dlunc3

system play or no system play... I have planned since the loss yesterday on doing a monster chase this weekend at home vs SD. Better pitching matchup all three days.. Worley going, then Doc and Hamels....

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-10-12, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by moshi

No its not. I was the one telling everyone to bet the underdog as the first A bet. No one listened.

No one listened because you dont have a back test behind it. As someone already stated you are basing this off of 41 games. You will lose people money giving them this advice long run when the favorites are hitting over 60% over the past 5 years on the A bets.

**thelimit0310** · 05-10-12, 09:04 PM

For the people following 4/2, looks like the first bet will be for Boston tomorrow. Though I personally will be playing for a small amount given the current performance of the Sox.

JMD
Didn't Solaman's system bomb just last year? It was 1 loss but it was devastating, if they recovered I'd be surprised. That is a system that I would never play as the variance is just way too high. You could play all season and all it takes is one or two losses to wreak havoc on your roll.

**juice050** · 05-10-12, 09:14 PM

man boston is to sad

**dlunc3** · 05-10-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by Douchebag50

Unfortunately Phillies bullpen is the shittiest of both leagues and their starters haven't gotten deep into a game for quite a while...if you plan to play Philly on the 5 innings line, you will most likely recoup, but if you play the whole 9 innings your setting yourself up for disappointment...Just my 2 cents...
OR for the same juice get +1.5 on every game for SD...

Middle relief, you are correct... but phills finally just today called up their stud reliever Jake Diekman... kid will be a huge breath of fresh air for this team... Either way, id bet my soul vance, doc or cole goes 8 this weekend vs this light hitting sd lineup... I wouldnt be surprised if 2 or 3 of them did it. Then pap is lights out in the 9th with a lead.

Charlie sat this team down last night and basically told them to get their shit together... last two times (over the last few yrs) he did this, the team responded with monster winning streaks.

If they dont take at least 2/3 vs this padres team this weekend, I burn my season tix and suddenly turn into a texas fan

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 09:26 PM

Boston lost - anyone know how to make diapers out of paper towels. I am up 23 units on my own picks and down 65 here

**WVU9494** · 05-10-12, 09:30 PM

Isnt the game 3 record 2-4 since there are 4 losses this year

Originally posted by on3

in regards to the posts of money management. the $20/unit is based off of a $2000 bankroll at 1%. the system as it stands is -22 units or $440. i dont know how you would lose your entire bankroll if you only lost 25% of it. even if you jumped on the system at its peak +20 units, you are down 42 units, or 42%. if your entire bankroll is gone when the system AT MOST has lost 50%, your other 50% of losses have come from other areas.

System record 37-4-0; 9-0-0
Units -22
1 unit = $20

5/10

#42 -- cleveland @ BOS -147 (A) -- o/u 9 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses

Game 1 win = 21-20; 7-2
Game 2 win = 14-6; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-3; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

65-67-82-95
40-40-87-93
85-152-126-134

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

BOS to win 65

BOS to win 20

**moshi** · 05-10-12, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

No one listened because you dont have a back test behind it. As someone already stated you are basing this off of 41 games. You will lose people money giving them this advice long run when the favorites are hitting over 60% over the past 5 years on the A bets.

I don't know how to backtest it. One question: is it normal for the system to have three losses this early in the system?

**Lakey** · 05-10-12, 09:47 PM

Looks like there's going to be alot of plays tomorrow. Time to make some money back!!

**KennyM10** · 05-10-12, 10:02 PM

You guys sound like you are a bunch of desperate losers, oh you are!

**dlunc3** · 05-10-12, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by KennyM10

To late now I lost every cent in my account following this clown

Originally posted by KennyM10

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

yea... you sure are one to talk

**KennyM10** · 05-10-12, 10:11 PM

At least I was smart enough to quit and as soon as Boston starting blowing tonight doubled up on the only system I follow now with Toronto. Person has much more sense than you softballs.

**dlunc3** · 05-10-12, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by KennyM10

At least I was smart enough to quit and as soon as Boston starting blowing tonight doubled up on the only system I follow now with Toronto. Person has much more sense than you softballs.

talking about your boy G again? he had boston as well as toronto tonight.. dont forget not to leave that out

**SlickRick1382** · 05-10-12, 10:19 PM

If you can't handle losses stop gambling.

Never seen so many girls on a gambling forum, crying ....

You don't like the system then leave. No one is forcing anyone to do or play anything. Better yet come up with your own system ...

**stevex** · 05-10-12, 10:28 PM

Exactly. It was an A bet loss fellas. Will get it back and plenty more in the coming weeks. My goodness, its only May ha.

**swordsandtequila** · 05-10-12, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by KennyM10

You guys sound like you are a bunch of desperate losers, oh you are!

Douche Bag

noun

1. A small syringe having detachable nozzles for fluid injections, used chiefly for vaginal lavage and for enemas.

2. Also called douche . Slang: Vulgar . a contemptible or despicable person.

**darkmatter117** · 05-10-12, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by moshi

I don't know how to backtest it. One question: is it normal for the system to have three losses this early in the system?

I posted a few pages back that there were something like six losses through May one season ... That was 2007.

Are you suggesting taking the dog on the ML for the A bet, then playing the system as normal for B and C if A loses (i.e., the system wins)? Or half on the favorite ML, half on the dog +1.5 RL?

**moshi** · 05-10-12, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by darkmatter117

I posted a few pages back that there were something like six losses through May one season ... That was 2007.

Are you suggesting taking the dog on the ML for the A bet, then playing the system as normal for B and C if A loses (i.e., the system wins)? Or half on the favorite ML, half on the dog +1.5 RL?

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. I have no idea if it is a good long-term strategy or not but I think you'd be doing okay right about now. Instead of half-half, I would play enough to win your bet back on the +1.5 RL (as in a push) with profits on the more risky ML. B and C have higher win-rates so if the underdog does win the first, play the fave for B and C. Therefore the most you lose in an entire series chase is your bets on B and C minus your win on A.

**eric14tsui** · 05-11-12, 12:27 AM

I like Philly's chances in the coming series vs. SD. could be a filtered if its total hits 9

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-11-12, 12:57 AM

Turning my labby lines of 4/line to NINE/line now. Bets are way too big. Will also scrap Boston this week and take it as a loss. Will double up on the phillies because a few of you guys are so sure that they'll win at least one.