LTA's MLB Plays

[blackeyeshamus]

yeah, LTA!
you're the personification of discipline, sir!
congratulations on an excellent season, and
best of luck tomorrow!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Rockies/Padres over (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

White versus Suppan in the battle of the youngster versus the old vet. In this game, I don't expect either to fare well. White struggled when given the chance and the Padres have faced him before. Suppan fared well last week in his first start this season, but let's see what he does without as much adrenaline. The ump is Fairchild who has a lifetime strike rate under 62.8% and an overall over lean, while the weather is projected to blow out softly to right. Despite Petco, I have this game set at 8.1 and we cash on a final score of 8. I expect a high scoring game and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.49 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Rockies/Padres over (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

White versus Suppan in the battle of the youngster versus the old vet. In this game, I don't expect either to fare well. White struggled when given the chance and the Padres have faced him before. Suppan fared well last week in his first start this season, but let's see what he does without as much adrenaline. The ump is Fairchild who has a lifetime strike rate under 62.8% and an overall over lean, while the weather is projected to blow out softly to right. Despite Petco, I have this game set at 8.1 and we cash on a final score of 8. I expect a high scoring game and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.49 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Orioles ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

The books were giving too much respect to Matusz in the series opener with a closer right around where we open with Arrieta. However, that provides us with 17 cents of value considering I have the O's set at +108. Arrieta has decent numbers this season and the Rangers will be a big public play with the majority of all bets in that direction. There's too much value here for a better pitcher and suprisingly similar offensive numbers to date. I am rolling with the Orioles for 1x. Good luck.

[TC Woods]

On all 3....

[bluevase]

i will try my luck and tail some. thankx

[Redscot]

Looking forward to a good day LTA . Gonna be on the farm all day and I really appreciate how you get some plays in early like this. Added bonus is since I put some $ in 5dimes they offer reduced juice on sides up to 8am, and on R/L and totals all day. Only a few cents but it adds up over a season where one could potentially make close to a 1,000 wagers. Have a great day bro .

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Rockies/Padres over (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

White versus Suppan in the battle of the youngster versus the old vet. In this game, I don't expect either to fare well. White struggled when given the chance and the Padres have faced him before. Suppan fared well last week in his first start this season, but let's see what he does without as much adrenaline. The ump is Fairchild who has a lifetime strike rate under 62.8% and an overall over lean, while the weather is projected to blow out softly to right. Despite Petco, I have this game set at 8.1 and we cash on a final score of 8. I expect a high scoring game and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.49 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Orioles ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

The books were giving too much respect to Matusz in the series opener with a closer right around where we open with Arrieta. However, that provides us with 17 cents of value considering I have the O's set at +108. Arrieta has decent numbers this season and the Rangers will be a big public play with the majority of all bets in that direction. There's too much value here for a better pitcher and suprisingly similar offensive numbers to date. I am rolling with the Orioles for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Marlins -1RL (-117) 1x (Locked)

I'll ride the hot team with the superior pitcher. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Looking forward to a good day LTA . Gonna be on the farm all day and I really appreciate how you get some plays in early like this. Added bonus is since I put some $ in 5dimes they offer reduced juice on sides up to 8am, and on R/L and totals all day. Only a few cents but it adds up over a season where one could potentially make close to a 1,000 wagers. Have a great day bro .

Anyone that would choose a bonus over the reduced juice has no idea what they are doing. The reduced juice is huge. If I weren't getting those numbers through my local, I would already have money at 5d right now. Good luck!

[Manel88]

LTA, could you please give me a website where i can check the career stats for the umpires?

Thank you in advance

[CHAZ]

LTA, could you please give me a website where i can check the career stats for the umpires?

Thank you in advance

I got this from another site awhile back ago. Shows stats going back to 2005

Umps.xls

[wguan2]

Hey LTA, I'm sure you've stated in the past but I just started following your MLB thread. I follow your football and basketball threads more. Anyway, what is your profit goal for this MLB season and then the playoffs? Also what is your unit size as compared to your other sports? Thanks in advance.

[Manel88]

I got this from another site awhile back ago. Shows stats going back to 2005

[ATTACH]41914[/ATTACH]

Thanks! But if anyone have a website i would prefer.

[riffraff24]

Orioles -105 at 5dimes currently. Thoughts LTA?

[Love The Action]

Orioles -105 at 5dimes currently. Thoughts LTA?

I bet invested at +125, so I'm pleased with the number I bought. At -105, the expected value is not the same. Up to you whether to play it...gl

[Redscot]

Orioles -105 at 5dimes currently. Thoughts LTA?

In no way am I attempting to speak for LTA here, but, I grabbed this on 5dimes at +118 and passed on my local who had it even. End of the day, LTA valued it at +108, so long term would be beneficial to pass at -105. GL
Edit: Well you got your answer from the source.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Rockies/Padres over (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

White versus Suppan in the battle of the youngster versus the old vet. In this game, I don't expect either to fare well. White struggled when given the chance and the Padres have faced him before. Suppan fared well last week in his first start this season, but let's see what he does without as much adrenaline. The ump is Fairchild who has a lifetime strike rate under 62.8% and an overall over lean, while the weather is projected to blow out softly to right. Despite Petco, I have this game set at 8.1 and we cash on a final score of 8. I expect a high scoring game and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 7.49 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Orioles ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

The books were giving too much respect to Matusz in the series opener with a closer right around where we open with Arrieta. However, that provides us with 17 cents of value considering I have the O's set at +108. Arrieta has decent numbers this season and the Rangers will be a big public play with the majority of all bets in that direction. There's too much value here for a better pitcher and suprisingly similar offensive numbers to date. I am rolling with the Orioles for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Marlins -1RL (-117) 1x (Locked)

I'll ride the hot team with the superior pitcher. Good luck.

Play #5

White Sox/Indians under (8)(-105) (Locked)

The last time we backed this pitching matchup, the totals closed at 8.5 with -120 juice on the over with a final score that sailed over the total. In this game, the books opened at 8 with juice on the under only to level out the juice a few minutes ago. Hmmm, are the books tipping their hands? Well I have to agree that the under is the play here considering that my model still has this at 7.1 despite both pitchers early struggles. The ump is neutral and weather should not be a factor so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Strong lean on the yankee under, but the wind is blowing out to left, it will likely rain and I am concerned about fatigue with shields considering his recent pitch counts. I have to pass but like the under a lot. Good luck under backers....

[Manel88]

LTA, did you see my post above?

Btw, why is rain favorable to an over?

[daddyv]

i already had a unit on the NYY under...glad to see u were leaning that way too

[meader99]

Josh Hamilton.......WOW.

[SlickRick1382]

LTA, did you see my post above?

Btw, why is rain favorable to an over?

If you have long delays during the game then what happens most of the time is that the starters get pulled. Then we have to rely on the bullpen the rest of the way. That's why it's dangerous to back an under if you expect a rain delay.

[ronnieseah]

can someone kindly point me the link to DIY -1run

[chief42]

MLB -1 Run Calculator |

[Redscot]

Wow, Chris Perez now. 3 straight nights of 9th innings set up for the under . Let's just look at it as getting these out of our system early this year LTA, we will get some of these back as the season progresses. To top it off Infante makes a rare error to let 2 runs in in the Marlins game. Still time left.........hoping for the best.

[Love The Action]

Did that seriously just happen in the White Sox/Indians game? Three days in a row now we get burned in the last inning. Variance is just being such a bastard right now. One of my best ML plays all year was getting Balty at +125 considering they closed at -102, but they never had a chance. I killed the closer with both the Red Sox/KC under and the Marlins runline play, yet both are in jeopardy. All I can do is keep making +ev wagers, but this is getting a little ridiculous.

[Redscot]

Did that seriously just happen in the White Sox/Indians game? Three days in a row now we get burned in the last inning. Variance is just being such a bastard right now. One of my best ML plays all year was getting Balty at +125 considering they closed at -102, but they never had a chance. I killed the closer with both the Red Sox/KC under and the Marlins runline play, yet both are in jeopardy. All I can do is keep making +ev wagers, but this is getting a little ridiculous.

I'm cool as a cucumber bro. Your reads this season are even better than last years so far, just a crazy run of bad variance atm. Keep banging out the plays, I feel a 50+ unit season.

Fitguy made a post recently quoting one of the videos you posted that is on point atm.:

when u have time, watch this video if u haven't already...(it’s one that LTA posted a while back)…anyhow, I thought it a propos of your tendency to “beat yourself up” when the “negative variance” storms hit, as they inevitably will…

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

the most memorable (and most useful to the individual investor, IMO) part of it comes in the last 10 minutes
where Dr. Bob says (I’m paraphrasing very loosely here)…

*i never think in terms of "hot" and "cold"...just positive and negative variance...as long as i keep finding and buying value (what i can control)...i don't worry about the sequence of the wins and losses/the up days and the down days...because i know i'm on an upward (although guaranteed bumpy) path*...he also says something like
*when i'm what people call "hot" or when i'm what people call "cold"...i'm doing exactly the same thing...there's an illusion that when i'm hot, I'm "reading things" better than when i'm cold, but it's just an illusion...it's all just the ebb and flow of variance...like the flow of good and bad poker hands to an excellent poker player

[SlickRick1382]

Did that seriously just happen in the White Sox/Indians game? Three days in a row now we get burned in the last inning. Variance is just being such a bastard right now. One of my best ML plays all year was getting Balty at +125 considering they closed at -102, but they never had a chance. I killed the closer with both the Red Sox/KC under and the Marlins runline play, yet both are in jeopardy. All I can do is keep making +ev wagers, but this is getting a little ridiculous.

Nothing you can do bud. Just a real shit storm that's been passing through. Sadly enough the fact that it even pushed after the White Sox blew a 3-0 lead is the best news I've had today

But I would be lying if I didn't say it gets frustrating ....

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Reds/Brewers under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm cool as a cucumber bro. Your reads this season are even better than last years so far, just a crazy run of bad variance atm. Keep banging out the plays, I feel a 50+ unit season.

Fitguy made a post recently quoting one of the videos you posted that is on point atm.:

when u have time, watch this video if u haven't already...(it’s one that LTA posted a while back)…anyhow, I thought it a propos of your tendency to “beat yourself up” when the “negative variance” storms hit, as they inevitably will…

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

the most memorable (and most useful to the individual investor, IMO) part of it comes in the last 10 minutes
where Dr. Bob says (I’m paraphrasing very loosely here)…

*i never think in terms of "hot" and "cold"...just positive and negative variance...as long as i keep finding and buying value (what i can control)...i don't worry about the sequence of the wins and losses/the up days and the down days...because i know i'm on an upward (although guaranteed bumpy) path*...he also says something like
*when i'm what people call "hot" or when i'm what people call "cold"...i'm doing exactly the same thing...there's an illusion that when i'm hot, I'm "reading things" better than when i'm cold, but it's just an illusion...it's all just the ebb and flow of variance...like the flow of good and bad poker hands to an excellent poker player

Yep....I preach it constantly. With that said, I use SBR as a means of escape. I certainly can't vent my frustrations of this business in real life, so I vent here. You have to let it out somewhere

[Redscot]

Yep....I preach it constantly. With that said, I use SBR as a means of escape. I certainly can't vent my frustrations of this business in real life, so I vent here. You have to let it out somewhere

[pacocn]

Lta, it looks as though C.B. Bucknor will be tomorrow's ump
in the Reds/Brewcrew game, do you have any info on his
strike zone? Thanks

[Catchn_Picks]

Hey guys, to get our minds off of the current string of neg variance, here is an article I'm sure you are going to love. A very good piece from Deadspin on the wonderful world of touting and how it has evolved (devolved?). The author apparently got fired over pursuing this subject. (He wrote for the parent company of Covers.com and I guess this article hit a little too close to home). I appreciate the author's courage.

It could all be much worse. We could have a tout to pay.

I think you will likee.

http://deadspin.com/5907732/in-the-realm-of-gambling-message-boards-anyone-could-be-the-next-sarah-phillips?tag=espn

[LoneStar]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2012/umpire8399.html	5	2-3	9.00	281	178	103	63.4	12.4	6.6	1.88	2.60	1-3

[fitguy67]

Hey, Red...thanks for the cut & paste-up from Dex' thread...seems to have helped the situation...glad he watched the vid and got jazzed about sports-investing again...

[Redscot]

May.....it's the new July (LTA knows what I mean) Just one of those days. Had a chance to load the bases in bottom of the 9th in Rockies game and Scutaro gets hit with the batted ball. Colorado 14 baserunners and get 1 run. You couldn't script a more frustrating night. Good thing about baseball is we have a whole slate of games today to help us turn the page and forget. Keep on nailing the closer LTA, as far as I am concerned you are on fire, just haven't been rewarded with the results.