LTA's MLB Plays

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

The cards are a very strong lean and probable play. The rox are a smaller lean and I also like the under a tad. Will make a decision on the cards shortly. GL

Cool beans, just remember that Pads pen is in a state of flux atm, though they do have Gregerson and Thayer tonight. Fieri was an integral part of it and obviously Street out too.

One thing we didn't comment about in the Nat's game last night. Good old school baseball. Hamels looking at a young upstart of a division rival plunks him. Even better was the way Harper took his lump like a man and then hustled 1st to 3rd on a base hit and stole home! Great stuff!

**meader99** · 05-07-12, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Cool beans, just remember that Pads pen is in a state of flux atm, though they do have Gregerson and Thayer tonight. Fieri was an integral part of it and obviously Street out too. One thing we didn't comment about in the Nat's game last night. Good old school baseball. Hamels looking at a young upstart of a division rival plunks him. Even better was the way Harper took his lump like a man and then hustled 1st to 3rd on a base hit and stole home! Great stuff!

Can't believe Hamels came out and publicly admitted it. Probably wouldn't have gotten a suspension, but now MLB has no choice.

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/7/2012

Play #1

Mets/Phillies under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.48 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Astros ML (-113) 1x (Locked)

The books and sharps are starting to respect the Astros because of their bats and this is a nice matchup for them having destroyed Zambrano many times before. Wandy has a career H/A splits that strongly favor pitching in Houston and he has also performed well against Miami. I give Houston standard home field pricing in this game at -120 which still leaves us 7 cents of value and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rangers -1RL (-113) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**IXL** · 05-07-12, 10:05 AM

Hey LTA nice great picks yesterday, cashed on the mets under. Thanks!!

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 10:51 AM

Looks like I jumped the gun with both the Astros and Rangers. Surprised to see all this balty money come in but their recent success and last weeks solid performance by matusz coupled with two stinkers in a row by Harrison sure seems to have convinced some people that Balty is for real. However, I think all of this just creates value on Texas who are primed to explode from the plate after leaving a ton of guys on base over the weekend. The orioles are hot, but they are not in the same league as Texas. Plus their bullpen is depleted. I will take my chances with the rangers. GL

**No coincidences** · 05-07-12, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Looks like I jumped the gun with both the Astros and Rangers. Surprised to see all this balty money come in but their recent success and last weeks solid performance by matusz coupled with two stinkers in a row by Harrison sure seems to have convinced some people that Balty is for real. However, I think all of this just creates value on Texas who are primed to explode from the plate after leaving a ton of guys on base over the weekend. The orioles are hot, but they are not in the same league as Texas. Plus their bullpen is depleted. I will take my chances with the rangers. GL

Texas hasn't played well at all on this road trip. I think that's what has people skittish -- that, plus Baltimore is looking more and more like they're at least an adequate ballclub.

With that being said, it's a big step forward to assume Matusz is going to slow down the Ranger lineup.

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/7/2012

Play #1

Mets/Phillies under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.48 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Astros ML (-113) 1x (Locked)

The books and sharps are starting to respect the Astros because of their bats and this is a nice matchup for them having destroyed Zambrano many times before. Wandy has a career H/A splits that strongly favor pitching in Houston and he has also performed well against Miami. I give Houston standard home field pricing in this game at -120 which still leaves us 7 cents of value and I am rolling with the Astros for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rangers -1RL (-113) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**JM92** · 05-07-12, 01:11 PM

I was actually watching phillies/nats last nite during the timeouts in the Hawks/Celtics. Just can't believe that happened. Wow.

let's get 'em tonight though! GL everyone.

**BXbomber11** · 05-07-12, 01:37 PM

GL tonight

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 02:15 PM

I am about as anti-Yankee as they come,but respect where it is due:

As a whole, batters have hit .210/.262/.290 against Mariano Rivera in 4,847 plate appearances.

There is an article on him at Fangraphs that has lots more. Wow, an ops of .552....Wow.

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 02:38 PM

I am slightly concerned about the Mets middle infield for our under tonight. Tejada out and I can't think of a worse up the middle combo of Murphy and Turner coupled with Niese' 52% ground ball rate.

**LoneStar** · 05-07-12, 02:55 PM

Lta money bos/kc under 9.5

**No coincidences** · 05-07-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I am about as anti-Yankee as they come,but respect where it is due:

As a whole, batters have hit .210/.262/.290 against Mariano Rivera in 4,847 plate appearances.

There is an article on him at Fangraphs that has lots more. Wow, an ops of .552....Wow.

The only true baseball legend of our generation.

**No coincidences** · 05-07-12, 05:41 PM

Can't believe the Astros are +106 now.

**BigBoi** · 05-07-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Can't believe the Astros are +106 now.

Everyone on the Marlins nuts right now. Went out west and beat two BAD teams in SD and SF. Big Z is still one inning away from being the headcase we all know.

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The only true baseball legend of our generation.

Right on man. Who can you name that has been more head and shoulders dominant at there position in sports? His post season numbers are insane too.

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by BigBoi

Everyone on the Marlins nuts right now. Went out west and beat two BAD teams in SD and SF. Big Z is still one inning away from being the headcase we all know.

I agree BigBoi, but also think the Marlins are a lot better team than they were showing for the first month. Once you get past Bell.

Cishek, Choate, Webb, Mujica are not that bad a pen. They have a solid rotation, Johnson not 100% but not as bad as his numbers indicate atm. Also, as a Mets fan, when Reyes gets hot he can carry a team like few other non-power hitters.

**Chili_Powder** · 05-07-12, 06:02 PM

LTA, Good Luck tonight with all of your selections, in total agreement w/ the Rangers

**pacocn** · 05-07-12, 06:11 PM

Lta, bol this week, go get em

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 07:12 PM

I also like the red sox tonight but did not play them because of the tired bullpen... Hope that was the right call.

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, bol this week, go get em

Same to you

**Rick22** · 05-07-12, 07:14 PM

Hope you're thinking was right LTA cause I thought the same and took the over.

**Donkeys2012** · 05-07-12, 09:04 PM

Fukk Papelbon this fkin clown gives up a 2 out 3 run HR to a guy with no Major league hits even. POS

**SlickRick1382** · 05-07-12, 09:04 PM

Getting old having all these games lost in the 9th inning. Never seen so many damn blown saves and always seem to happen on the Unders ...

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 09:06 PM

Well that blows. Back to back nights set up nicely in the 9th for our under, thwarted. The variance gods owe us a few.

**moguler** · 05-07-12, 09:19 PM

Can't believe it. Another 9th inning disaster. Last night it was Ryan Perry, and it was Papelbon tonight. It was just a brutal beat. The under play was right.

**WVU9494** · 05-07-12, 09:41 PM

Try also having the Phillies ml and then having a 10u on the under last night due to another system. Brutal 10 days.

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Well that blows. Back to back nights set up nicely in the 9th for our under, thwarted. The variance gods owe us a few.

Yep. That's 8x in profit lost due to the Perry and Papelbon debacles, assuming the Cards win tonight. I would have been 5-1 for +6x in profit last night and 3-1 for 2x in profit tonight. You mentioned last July....this is exactly what happened then, but it seemed like it was a daily occurrence. I'm still waiting for the variance gods to pay us back for those bad beats, meanwhile they just keep on piling on with these brutal losses. Nothing you can do though but forget it and move on.

On another note, what was Cole Hamels thinking....keep your mouth shut.

Gotta love Samardizja hit Heyward and then get into a jawing match. I wanted to back the under tonight, but was more concerned about Hanson than Samardijza....

Impressive performance by Zambrano....

Time to finish up some work on tomorrow's card. Let's get this Cards play. GL

**Redscot** · 05-07-12, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yep. That's 8x in profit lost due to the Perry and Papelbon debacles, assuming the Cards win tonight. I would have been 5-1 for +6x in profit last night and 3-1 for 2x in profit tonight. You mentioned last July....this is exactly what happened then, but it seemed like it was a daily occurrence. I'm still waiting for the variance gods to pay us back for those bad beats, meanwhile they just keep on piling on with these brutal losses. Nothing you can do though but forget it and move on.

On another note, what was Cole Hamels thinking....keep your mouth shut.

Gotta love Samardizja hit Heyward and then get into a jawing match. I wanted to back the under tonight, but was more concerned about Hanson than Samardijza....

Impressive performance by Zambrano....

Time to finish up some work on tomorrow's card. Let's get this Cards play. GL

heh heh, I am definitely pitcher-centric, but I have always preached when you are on the mound you gotta impose your will and let them know you are in charge. Miami is a team to keep our eyes on. They combine a lot of interesting elements, speed-power, and their pen is a lot better than they have shown imo.

Tough beats, but the plays are strong bro. Keep it up!

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-07-12, 10:19 PM

I promise you all that we will win many games this baseball season just like we lost over the last two nights. I will admit that it hasn't happened much this MLB season so far, but it must over the course of the season. We will have nights when we bet over in both games just like we lost.

It happened a lot in LTA's past NBA season, especially later in the season.

However, I would like to agree with those of you that wish it would happen sooner rather than later.

LOL

**dlunc3** · 05-07-12, 10:52 PM

stl blowing 7-0 lead... wow

**SlickRick1382** · 05-07-12, 11:06 PM

I don't always like to get ****** in the ass (by MLB teams), but when I do, I prefer a Dos Equis bottle.

**WVU9494** · 05-07-12, 11:20 PM

Haha, nice. I just hope my bankroll holds up to enjoy the winning streak I am about to go on.

**Love The Action** · 05-07-12, 11:58 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/8/2012

Play #1

Rockies/Padres over (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

White versus Suppan in the battle of the youngster versus the old vet. In this game, I don't expect either to fare well. White struggled when given the chance and the Padres have faced him before. Suppan fared well last week in his first start this season, but let's see what he does without as much adrenaline. The ump is Fairchild who has a lifetime strike rate under 62.8% and an overall over lean, while the weather is projected to blow out softly to right. Despite Petco, I have this game set at 8.1 and we cash on a final score of 8. I expect a high scoring game and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-08-12, 12:24 AM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/7/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.23x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

73 - 54 - 9 = +15.50x

Good luck on Tuesday.