LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

i'm leaning on the Jays to beat Boston tonight. Toronto hasnt played many games in front of a sell-out crowd in the SkyDome (not calling it Rogers Center, terrible name) on Opening Night in a long time. the whole city has been talking Jays for some time, and are coming out in full force tonight.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/04/09/toronto-blue-jays-soldout-home-opener.html?cmp=rss

Not to mention with a good 2-1 start on the road in Cleveland, and the BoSox struggling, i'm thinking the Jays ML is a good play tonight.

I lean jays as well, but pass for me because the jays have never faced the bosox rookie tonight and he therefore has the unfamiliarity factor working. Be careful though, there is no such thing as home field advantage in baseball and that should not be used as a basis for plays. It is an entire fallacy to think home field helps in baseball. According to various studies, home field advantage is almost entirely dependent on the umpires. If the umpire historically favors home teams, then there is a "home field advantage." If the ump does not favor the home team, then the crowd is meaningless. This does not apply to wrigley as there has been no proven correlation which is due primarily to the wind variable if I remember correctly. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Love the white sox/indians under tonight but no play for me because all the value is gome. GL

[jas19illini]

This is purely a subjective perspective, but being a White Sox fan my whole life, Ive watched thousands of games. It seems anytime they face an unknown pitcher they get completely shutdown. LTA, seeing as how you seem to be a Sox fan, have you noticed this over the years? That is just one angle that has always stuck in my mind. Idk if it has any validity, but im curious as to whether others who follow the White Sox agree/disagree.

P.S. I know this has nothing to do with anything in particular in this thread. It's just something Ive had on my mind for years, constantly getting pissed off bc my Sox get manhandled by nobodies.

[Love The Action]

This is purely a subjective perspective, but being a White Sox fan my whole life, Ive watched thousands of games. It seems anytime they face an unknown pitcher they get completely shutdown. LTA, seeing as how you seem to be a Sox fan, have you noticed this over the years? That is just one angle that has always stuck in my mind. Idk if it has any validity, but im curious as to whether others who follow the White Sox agree/disagree.

P.S. I know this has nothing to do with anything in particular in this thread. It's just something Ive had on my mind for years, constantly getting pissed off bc my Sox get manhandled by nobodies.

What makes you think I'm a sox fan?

As to your question about Sox pitchers getting shut down against guys they never faced before, that is absolutely true. However, that is not limited to the Sox. It's very common for new pitchers to have success against teams/hitters they never faced before. The scouting reports are limited and the pitcher has no experience of of which to prepare for his at bats. This is widely known to be the "unfamiliarity factor" and one I will play quite often throughout the season. I had a discussion with someone who doubts the effect of the unfamiliarity factor and I know I read some empirical data on it, but now I can't find it. Nevertheless, I think it's a viable "angle" if there is already value on a play and other factors are working in your direction. It's always about finding multiple factors to use to your advantage. A play should never be just about one thing....GL

[Love The Action]

Hey red,
cheers for all the links. I flicked you some points, moreso for pointing me to fangraphs. I can't tell you how much I have learnt in the last few days.

He is a godsend for me....takes away from a lot of the work I used to have to do around here. Red is the man and I hope you all appreciate his efforts

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the play. I'm sure you mentioned it before but I couldn't find it.....do you generally play action or listed pitchers when you play sides? I prefer to go with listed pitchers but I'm curious if you do the same.

Depends. I always play the listed pitcher that I am backing on the side. Take for example tonight's Play #2. I am taking the Natties because of the value provided to the superior pitcher in Edwin Jackson. Although he is mercurial as Red pointed out, he is a better than an "average" pitcher in my mind. I would put him as a solid #3 and he's a #4 for Washington, so I expect some value out of him. Anyway, in this game, I chose to take Jackson as the listed pitcher but played "action" for the Mets. In my mind, you were either going to see Pelfrey or one of the long relief guys if Pelfrey got scratched. However, had there been talk of someone like Dickey taking his place before I made the play, then I would have played both listed pitchers. The point being, sometimes you want to play listed pitches for both sides and sometimes just for the side you are backing because you know you are going to have the advantage regardless and you don't want to miss out on a winner from playing both listed pitchers invariably. Good luck.

[absolutkaos]

I lean jays as well, but pass for me because the jays have never faced the bosox rookie tonight and he therefore has the unfamiliarity factor working. Be careful though, there is no such thing as home field advantage in baseball and that should not be used as a basis for plays. It is an entire fallacy to think home field helps in baseball. According to various studies, home field advantage is almost entirely dependent on the umpires. If the umpire historically favors home teams, then there is a "home field advantage." If the ump does not favor the home team, then the crowd is meaningless. This does not apply to wrigley as there has been no proven correlation which is due primarily to the wind variable if I remember correctly. Good luck.

Thanks man. I appreciate the advice. I find it tough to adjust to thinking about the games in such an analytical way, for example, tonight I feel like the crowd in Toronto will help the Jays in untangible ways. Theyll be pumped up to win in front of the home crowd, maybe theyll run harder, play a bit better. Then I see your perspective and feel like such a "fanboy" and playing right into the hands of the books. Ive still got a lot to learn about these "investment strategies". Appreciate you taking time to explain this stuff. Cheers.

[jas19illini]

What makes you think I'm a sox fan?

As to your question about Sox pitchers getting shut down against guys they never faced before, that is absolutely true. However, that is not limited to the Sox. It's very common for new pitchers to have success against teams/hitters they never faced before. The scouting reports are limited and the pitcher has no experience of of which to prepare for his at bats. This is widely known to be the "unfamiliarity factor" and one I will play quite often throughout the season. I had a discussion with someone who doubts the effect of the unfamiliarity factor and I know I read some empirical data on it, but now I can't find it. Nevertheless, I think it's a viable "angle" if there is already value on a play and other factors are working in your direction. It's always about finding multiple factors to use to your advantage. A play should never be just about one thing....GL

I thought i remember Red saying before the season started that he had some info on "your" White Sox, which led me to believe you were a Sox fan, not to mention you seem to like the Bulls so it seemed to make sense. Thanks for the feedback.

[Vasco]

Depends. I always play the listed pitcher that I am backing on the side. Take for example tonight's Play #2. I am taking the Natties because of the value provided to the superior pitcher in Edwin Jackson. Although he is mercurial as Red pointed out, he is a better than an "average" pitcher in my mind. I would put him as a solid #3 and he's a #4 for Washington, so I expect some value out of him. Anyway, in this game, I chose to take Jackson as the listed pitcher but played "action" for the Mets. In my mind, you were either going to see Pelfrey or one of the long relief guys if Pelfrey got scratched. However, had there been talk of someone like Dickey taking his place before I made the play, then I would have played both listed pitchers. The point being, sometimes you want to play listed pitches for both sides and sometimes just for the side you are backing because you know you are going to have the advantage regardless and you don't want to miss out on a winner from playing both listed pitchers invariably. Good luck.

Thanks for that info, it makes sense.

[Redscot]

He is a godsend for me....takes away from a lot of the work I used to have to do around here. Red is the man and I hope you all appreciate his efforts

Thanks for the kind words bro , to me it has always been about generating info and debate. Makes us all better. Beleive me, I have benefited greatly from your approach.

Back to Jackson, Maybe I was a little harsh, but a #3 starter is middle of the road for a rotation, and that is where he probably belongs. NL Starting pitchers league average 2011 Xfip 3.88, Siera 3.98 ---- Jackson xfip 3.73, siera 4.01 - keep in mind that league average includes spot starters. BTW, I totally agreed with the play, he is superior to Pelf, just think sometimes he gives off the impression of being better than he is. You know I am a Muts fan, but will be rooting for the Nat's for you and the tailers. My local has been closed all day and I haven't been able to reach him, so couldn't get any bets in.....kinda pissed.

[Redscot]

Anybody watching Darvish?! Is he on meltdown . Wow! Don't have a feed on that game would love to know what is going on there............

[mikea33]

Hes getting shelled....lol

[Les_Nuts]

Anybody watching Darvish?! Is he on meltdown . Wow! Don't have a feed on that game would love to know what is going on there............

Its crazy lol. He pitched one about 5ft wide of the box

[absolutkaos]

Anybody watching Darvish?! Is he on meltdown . Wow! Don't have a feed on that game would love to know what is going on there............

https://www.firstrowsports.eu

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the kind words bro , to me it has always been about generating info and debate. Makes us all better. Beleive me, I have benefited greatly from your approach.

Back to Jackson, Maybe I was a little harsh, but a #3 starter is middle of the road for a rotation, and that is where he probably belongs. NL Starting pitchers league average 2011 Xfip 3.88, Siera 3.98 ---- Jackson xfip 3.73, siera 4.01 - keep in mind that league average includes spot starters. BTW, I totally agreed with the play, he is superior to Pelf, just think sometimes he gives off the impression of being better than he is. You know I am a Muts fan, but will be rooting for the Nat's for you and the tailers. My local has been closed all day and I haven't been able to reach him, so couldn't get any bets in.....kinda pissed.

True, but I think he's a solid 3 and better than almost all 4's. He's also played with 4 teams over 2 seasons and still put up respectable numbers. That's not easy to do when you are going from pitching coach to pitching coach and they all think they can "fix" you in just a small part of the season. There's a reason people keep trading for him and it's because with the team/right pitching coach over an exptended period of time he could be a 12 or more game winner, 200 inning a year guy year in and year out. He's got the potential to get there if he got his head out of his ass early in games. Once he gets cruising, he's ok. If he gets into trouble early, forget it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/nl-starting-pitcher-tiered-rankings/

I could debate this list all day, but I think there's an argument that Jackson should be in Tier 6. I think if he had a K% over 20% instead of 17% last season, with a SIERA just under 4, he would have gotten there. This guy has all the stuff to a be a 20% K%, 1.5 GB/FB, and 3.8ish xFIP, SIERA, tERA, FIP type guy.

Ofcourse he just blew the lead so fuk him

[Redscot]

True, but I think he's a solid 3 and better than almost all 4's. He's also played with 4 teams over 2 seasons and still put up respectable numbers. That's not easy to do when you are going from pitching coach to pitching coach and they all think they can "fix" you in just a small part of the season. There's a reason people keep trading for him and it's because with the team/right pitching coach over an exptended period of time he could be a 12 or more game winner, 200 inning a year guy year in and year out. He's got the potential to get there if he got his head out of his ass early in games. Once he gets cruising, he's ok. If he gets into trouble early, forget it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/nl-starting-pitcher-tiered-rankings/

I could debate this list all day, but I think there's an argument that Jackson should be in Tier 6. I think if he had a K% over 20% instead of 17% last season, with a SIERA just under 4, he would have gotten there. This guy has all the stuff to a be a 20% K%, 1.5 GB/FB, and 3.8ish xFIP, SIERA, tERA, FIP type guy.

Ofcourse he just blew the lead so fuk him

I hear you bro, he is tantalizing, but I am kinda sold on him being who he is now, there is also a reason he bounces from team to team. It is a shame he didn't have more time with Dave Duncan, he has the potential to be a 2 on a bad team and a 3 on a good team imo. Anyway, rooting for a Nat's rally. Looks like it will come down to the pens....could be interesting.

[Redscot]

Tomorrow looking like a tough card, lots of uncertainties. Dodgers -1 and over, Stl/Cincy under 9, and Muts/Wash over 8 have my early interest.

On another note I am kinda feeling Oak/K.C. tonight over 7.5 tonight at + odds. Oakland is an under haven but 2 virtual rooks going.....not sure here, any thoughts LTA?

[mikea33]

come on nationals get a run !
they double them in hits yet cant score.

[riffraff24]

Cmon Nats!!!

[WVU9494]

Jesus had $350 on Phillies under and $350 on Wahington. Anyone know how to make diapers out of newspaper?

[mstrofpigs]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/9/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Phillies under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

A great pitching matchup with Sanches versus Hamels. I expect another step forward for Sanchez this season as he continues to throw that changeup more. There is no doubting the emergence of that changeup -- going from throwing it 12% to 17% -- also coincided with a higher K/9, K% and GB/FB score, all of which lead to a sterling 3.29 SIERA and 3.8 WAR. I would not be surprised to see him post similar or better numbers again this season as his BABIP comes down from .310. On the other side, Cole Hamels will be looking to start his year off with a win and I expect him to be focused. I have Hamels as one of the elite pitchers in the NL so there's not reason to go over all of his numbers. I think he pitches well on Monday as the wind is projected to blow across the field toward the first base line. I have this game set 5.9 giving us over a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1. Good luck.

Great analysis LTA. You're horrible at making picks but solid write ups.

[Child's Play]

thats harsh.

but spot on - too bad you forgot about the bullpens... not that they were horrendous, but they can give up runs too

[bmur714]

Great analysis LTA. You're horrible at making picks but solid write ups.

Is there some inside joke about Sammy and a bakery?

Edit: I think I answered my own question...

I've been fading LTA for weeks now. NBA and NFL. His stupid write ups are a joke. Keep posting your picks jackass.

[Love The Action]

thats harsh.

but spot on - too bad you forgot about the bullpens... not that they were horrendous, but they can give up runs too

Spot on? I didn't forget about bullpens. The Mets bullpen will prove no better than Washington's over the course of the season and probably worse because they are going to be overused from not having quality starters like Washington. I got burned last night by two 9th inning collapses -- it happens. Over the course of the year, those losses even out. Regardless, both plays beat the closing price and both were long term winning plays.

The other guy who tried to talk shit -- Ms. Piggy -- is just some fool with a grudge against me so I don't pay any attention. He has 6 posts since the end of 2011 when I had him booted off the SBR under another handle so he has a grudge. I don't know why you are coming in here talking shit, especially since you are trying to operate your own thread. Be careful or the next time you have a bad day the shoe might be on the other foot buddy.

[Love The Action]

Great analysis LTA. You're horrible at making picks but solid write ups.

Ms. Piggy....er Sammy....please just change that avatar. It really is the ugliest thing I have ever season other than your personality. Get a life dude....you have 6 posts on SBR under that Piggy handle and they are all talking shit to me after a losing night. The best part though, is that everytime you try to flame me I go on a hot streak and I don't hear from you for a month. I expect the same to happen today. Thanks!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/9/2012 Recap

0 - 2 = -2.05x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

6 - 8 = -1.70x

Starting the season off with some brutal 9th inning beats, but this is a seven month sport. Anybody worried now should not be doing this....time to get back to work and get ready for Tuesday. Good luck.

[Redscot]

UMPS:

Cle: Davis
Bal: Tim Welke
Tor: McClelland -------------Stingy zone
Cin: Scott
NY: Gorman ----------------Juicy zone
Hou: Meals
Chi: Cederstrom
Tex: DeMuth
Oak: Joyce

Detwiler, Weiland, Moore, Bard (starter), Drabek, Chen, Gomez, Feliz (starter), Godfrey

Not an easy day to cap imo.....

[CHAZ]

Are those the home plate umps for today?

[Redscot]

Are those the home plate umps for today?

Yup.

BTW, I mentioned the Dodgers over last night and still like it, however if it gets to 7 not so much. Home opener against Correia, Kershaw battled the flu and could be a little low on stamina (although I liked the play without that).

[RockyTopGambler]

MLB and ESPN had different umps in the Yanks game last night, ESPN had Schrieber on 1st last night. Redscott where do you get your umps from?

[Madison]

Hey Red,

Reg Darvish. Saw quite a bit (was flipping channels). Control issues early. 44 pitch first. Couple soft hits. Settled down reasonably after. Lots of movement (maybe to much). I'd throw this one out, and save my long term judgement going forward. BOL.

[Redscot]

MLB and ESPN had different umps in the Yanks game last night, ESPN had Schrieber on 1st last night. Redscott where do you get your umps from?

I get it from cappingthegame.com They have a stalking the umps thread, and also have a great ump database.

They are very reliable, but not perfect.

[Love The Action]

Like the under in detroit but the wind is blowing out big time at 19 mph.....

I agree with red that there is not much value on the board today.

[Redscot]

Like the under in detroit but the wind is blowing out big time at 19 mph.....

I agree with red that there is not much value on the board today.

Yeah tough day bro. I'm off today though, so looking forward to seeing how Moore fares against D-Troit. I think Porcello has a better year this year as well. BTW, where does your model have the Dodgers game, I am only luke warm on that one.

[Love The Action]

Royals look interesting tonight, but they have never faced godfrey and he throws nothing but junk.