LTA's NBA Plays

[TC Woods]

I'm thinking as soon as it shows on my book, I'm gonna get some of that Utah/Denver U204 1/2

[mstrofpigs]

I've been fading LTA for weeks now. NBA and NFL. His stupid write ups are a joke. Keep posting your picks jackass.

[TC Woods]

I've been fading LTA for weeks now. NBA and NFL. His stupid write ups are a joke. Keep posting your picks jackass.

Yer a dweeb

[That Guy]

I've been fading LTA for weeks now. NBA and NFL. His stupid write ups are a joke. Keep posting your picks jackass.

...and this is your first post?
Great to see you've added some intelligent debate. More so, start your own thread so we can track your picks

[mikey207]

Eight point is generous looks here. The Nets are on fire from beyond the arch over 50% last two games 35/67. D.Wil is out of his funk and will handle his busness. Nets 4-1 ATS last five .

Sick analysis bruh.

Take it elsewhere.

[Speedy88]

nice call on the jazz LTA.
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[Love The Action]

I've been fading LTA for weeks now. NBA and NFL. His stupid write ups are a joke. Keep posting your picks jackass.

That's cool....it means you are down money, since I am up 5x and hitting 55% in basketball (was hitting 61% before this thursday) & I have only lost a few units in nfl (of which we all know I advise people to play at half of my nba unit size).

So im up well over $1500 since xmas and you are down money. You can't troll me dude because in the end I will always be profitable and if you fade you will always lose.

Oh, btw, we all know this is just another sammy sunshine ghost and you will get kicked off sbr just like your other ghosts. In my year at sbr, I have only had one troll and that was this week with your earlier ghost. You are such a mental midget and your jealousy is obvious.

But you should keep trying to troll before the mods delete your account. I thoroughly look forward to embarrassing you for the mentally challenged degenerate that we all know you are.

Sammy

[Love The Action]

And guys, there is no need for anyone to respond to this new sammy sunshine troll other than me. Please let me handle this mentally unstable moron. He clearly has a mental disability, so we should not be too mean to him. Please just do not respond and put him on your ignore feature. Thanks and good luck sunday!

[Exxpresso]

Keep up the good work LTA, I like your threads very much

[GTS925]

Who is Sammy? Sams N' Charge?

[Redscot]

I got a question for ya LTA. What have been your observations regarding tired legs and points scored? Is that trending to more points (defensive effort waning) or less points (Tired shooting legs, more backups getting minutes with poorer shooting %'s) etc.

Looking at the GS game the total opened at 184 and has been hit all the way up to 186 1/2 +....They are on a East coast swing, B2B, and there is a bit of an early start tonight for them after a late night travel.

The more I look at this game seems like a good spot for Detroit................

Utah is on B2B as well but had 2 days of rest before last nights game in which they pretty much cruised....

[pacocn]

Lta, keep up the good work, as usual
you are a class act

[TC Woods]

I got a question for ya LTA. What have been your observations regarding tired legs and points scored? Is that trending to more points (defensive effort waning) or less points (Tired shooting legs, more backups getting minutes with poorer shooting %'s) etc.

Looking at the GS game the total opened at 184 and has been hit all the way up to 186 1/2 +....They are on a East coast swing, B2B, and there is a bit of an early start tonight for them after a late night travel.

The more I look at this game seems like a good spot for Detroit................

Utah is on B2B as well but had 2 days of rest before last nights game in which they pretty much cruised....

I thought the same thing re "tired legs", that's why I thought Utah/Denver would be a good pick at U204 1/2. I can see now (it's at 206) that maybe I jumped a little early when I wagered a U205....

Live and learn. Hopefully LTA will straighten out my thinking

[MrXYZ]

I'm on the over 186.5 in the Detroit/Golden State game & expect it to hit 189 by tipoff. Look forward to LTA's insights on this matchup if he has a play. I also like Jazz +10.

Lets cash some winners today guys, good luck in the NBA & NFL.

[Love The Action]

Who is Sammy? Sams N' Charge?

No....Sammy Sunshine, aka Hollywood@Philly, aka Jake the Baker, aka mstorofpigs

He got mad when I called him out for being a fraud when he was posting as the Hollywood@Philly guy and now he's trying to troll me.

This guy is a true bipolar mess.

[Love The Action]

I got a question for ya LTA. What have been your observations regarding tired legs and points scored? Is that trending to more points (defensive effort waning) or less points (Tired shooting legs, more backups getting minutes with poorer shooting %'s) etc.

Looking at the GS game the total opened at 184 and has been hit all the way up to 186 1/2 +....They are on a East coast swing, B2B, and there is a bit of an early start tonight for them after a late night travel.

The more I look at this game seems like a good spot for Detroit................

Utah is on B2B as well but had 2 days of rest before last nights game in which they pretty much cruised....

There's no one way of looking at it. Generally, when two teams are both on b2b, I look to the over first. This is especially true if the teams are offensive minded with weak defenses. In general, fatigue spots will lead to less effective defense because for the most part, defense is about energy.

However, that doesn't mean that b2b spots will mean more points because tired legs also can effect team that rely on the jump shot negatively. As we all know, if you don't have the legs, your jump shot will not fall.

Therefore, just like every other situational "angle," you have to look at it on a case by case basis. There are some teams that trend over on b2b and some that trend under. In addition, you need to be able to track b2b advanced stats to decipher how teams trend in b2b situations. Plus, you need to know the personality of certain teams, the players and the coaches.

If you check NBA Stuffer, you can see how different fatigue spots affect OEFF and DEFF. For example, here are the results for 2010-2011

http://www.nbastuffer.com/2010-2011_NBA_Regular_Season_Rest_Days_Stats.html

[burchfield]

Keep up the good work LTA, I like your threads very much

Ditto here. Made more off your picks than lost. Your angles are a lot better than "A team is due for a win." Even if they are misses they have a lot of thought into it.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/14/2012 Recap

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

34 - 28 = +4.95x

Another frustrating day as we easily cash the Jazz, but lose by just a few baskets in the Sixers/Wizards under after they combine for a 56 point 4th quarter. That game was on a 179 point pace through three quarters after they scored 49 points in the 1st quarter, 43 points in the 2nd quarter and 45 points in the 3rd quarter, leaving us a nice cushion for the 4th quarter that they blew out of the water. That was very unexpected too as Washington is one of the worst 4th quarter scoring teams in the league. Nevertheless, we continue to hit at 55% to start the season and remain up almost 5x through the first three weeks of the season which is right on pace for my seasonal goals. Onto Sunday's card and then a big MLK day card for Monday.

[Love The Action]

I'm seeing Steve Nash as probably, but have read other reports that both he and Hill will about tonight.

Anyone know the latest information on Steven Nash and Grant Hill?

[Dexter]

Nash is going to play...he sat out Friday as a precaution.

Not sure about Hill, but he's not a factor anymore on the offensive side. Not sure how he's been defensively though.

According to the coach, both players would have played Friday if it were a playoff game.

[Donnie Brasco]

Looks like serious rlm on the nuggets total, but that boat has sailed!

[Love The Action]

I'm thinking as soon as it shows on my book, I'm gonna get some of that Utah/Denver U204 1/2

Why do you like the under here?

[JohnRhume]

Play #2

76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get the key number of 187, but it never materialized. Nevertheless, I like fading the over after a game like yesterday. Philly shot the lights out and demolished the Wiz, so what's left to play for in this game. I suspect we see a sluggish start from both teams who had to travel last night. Generally, on b2b I look to back the over. However, in this case, today's total actually opened up lower than yesterday's total in this matchup which flew over. I think in this rare case, we need to be open to what the books are telling. Philly has played to 4 unders this year on b2b games showing that they might not come out with the same energy in these situations despite having a young team. Philly is great on offense and defense this year and playing very efficient, however, after shooting almost 56% percent as a team yesterday, I expect a letdown on offense today. All three refs favor the under with Garretson one of the biggest under refs we have on the NBA roster. The Wiz are the Wiz and play too ineeficient and undisciplined to light up the Philly defense, even if they are on a b2b. I only have this game set at 185, so not much value, but I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Hey LTA,

I'm quite new here and first of all I'd like to thank you for all your posts. The way you share your knowledge with precision and patience is just wonderful and I'm learning a lot from you.
I'm very interested in sports models and I have a question regarding the pick quoted above.
Like you said with this pick you only had one point of value with the total set by your model but since you played it I came to the conclusion that on all the other games from yesterday's card you might have the total set even closer to the bookie's total i.e the exact total or +/- 0.5 pt. Is that correct or am I missing something? Also, maybe your model represents just xx % of the parameters you take into account when making a decision?
Sorry if my question is stupid or if it has already been discussed before.
Thanks very much in advance for you answer and keep up the great work!
Take care.

[Love The Action]

Looks like serious rlm on the nuggets total, but that boat has sailed!

I'm not so sure about that.

Nevertheless, even though Sportspy has a 25/75 split in wagers in favor of the under with 3,500 bet volume, Sports Insights has the money even at 50/50 at about the same amount of wagers. Interesting dichotomy in wagers. Usually, those two sources are relatively similar. Keep an eye on Sspy over the next hour to see if there is a shift. They are on a delay, as opposed to SI which is in real time, so perhaps a shift might show itself there as well.

[Love The Action]

Like you said with this pick you only had one point of value with the total set by your model but since you played it I came to the conclusion that on all the other games from yesterday's card you might have the total set even closer to the bookie's total i.e the exact total or +/- 0.5 pt. Is that correct or am I missing something? Also, maybe your model represents just xx % of the parameters you take into account when making a decision?

Good question, but the answer is no. There was other plays with greater value as determined by my model, however, I didn't like those other plays for one reason or another. My model represents the first step I take in my overall capping process. I use my model to determine a starting point, but there are many other factors that I use to determine a play outside of my model. My model uses quantitative factors such as advanced stats to determine a fair number which should hopefully predict which way the line moves. From there, I apply what my model gives me to qualitative factors such as scheduling, motivation, situations, etc. Used together, that is how I determine a play. The key is getting all that work done before the lines come so you know the numbers you are looking to get and can pounce on the most value possible whether that means locking in an opener or waiting to a closing number.

Read some books like Conquering Risk and google "predictive modeling" for more information. Good luck.

[bmansell33]

Any leans or plays today lta

[Love The Action]

Any leans or plays today lta

Maybe...let's see where the lines end up.

[therocket]

LTA have you read the book "the smart money"? I just ordered it.

[Rolo1984]

just a general question what is the best site to monitor where the money is going? Googled some but find it difficult to find a good one to thrust

[Redscot]

just a general question what is the best site to monitor where the money is going? Googled some but find it difficult to find a good one to thrust

Paid sites are your best bet.....as far as free sites I use this one as a reference:

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

[Love The Action]

LTA have you read the book "the smart money"? I just ordered it.

No. Let me know how it is. I heard that was more about about the story of how the writer infiltrated a syndicate than the analytics behind the syndicates' success, but I am interested to hear your thoughts nonetheless.

[Love The Action]

just a general question what is the best site to monitor where the money is going? Googled some but find it difficult to find a good one to thrust

There's no such site. There are sites like Redscot suggested which monitor the number of bets on each side, but there are no sites that monitor the amount of money on each side. Only the books know that....

[bmansell33]

Safe to say if 80% of public is on one side yet other side is favored more money is on favorite? Just my $.02dunno if true or not

[Love The Action]

Safe to say if 80% of public is on one side yet other side is favored more money is on favorite? Just my $.02dunno if true or not

Not necessarily, but that is a common misconception. That's what the whole idea of RLM is. If you have 80% of the bets on one side, but the line moves in favor of the other side, then conceivably the "sharp", "syndicate" or "big" money (whatever you want to call it) is taking the non-public side and forcing the books to react because the money has been tipped to that non-public side.

Consequently, even though 80% of the bets are on one side, doesn't necessarily mean there is more money on that side.

[bmansell33]

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?