LTA's NBA Plays

[absolutkaos]

That is true. What is going on in here. Please take the petty personal attacks and arguments elsewhere and keep the discussion to basketball.

This is not what I would like to see when I log in. Ugh....

Please just ignore the trolls LTA.

Your method of money management, grinding out the season, and making gains over the long term aren't for everyone. They simply can't handle the ups and downs that you preach are part of your system.

Sure, if someone rolls into your thread one night, sees your solid stats and goes 0-4 and they lay 50% of their bankroll they are gonna be upset, but it's crazy that people complain about your picks, when you've said from day 1 of the season that it's all about the long haul.

Keep up the great work, cause i'll be honest, still being up +5 units (after two rough nights) on the still young season is fine by me!

[cleaveland]

LTA's sanctuary of analytical perfection should not be contaminated by the kind of antics that we're witnessing here. This thread should be a refuge for LTA and his followers to enjoy the pearls of wisdom being passed down and appropriate appreciation should come accordingly (although only within acceptable parameters).

[NB-Ace]

LTA's sanctuary of analytical perfection should not be contaminated by the kind of antics that we're witnessing here. This thread should be a refuge for LTA and his followers to enjoy the pearls of wisdom being passed down and appropriate appreciation should come accordingly (although only within acceptable parameters).

^ that was awesome

[NYSportsGuy210]

I am not questioning his picks....merely asking if he had any thoughts on the Trail blazers (-1.5) line at Houston tonight. And I get slammed for it as a result.

[apurvaas]

Dude this is an SBR FREE forum.....anyone can give their picks for free. You are acting as if LTA or any other poster for that matter wins like 60-70% of the time they give out picks in this forum, when they don't. Similarly anyone should be able to ask anyone for their two cents on particular games. It can actually help the OP even cap better because there might be games that he or she didn't realize that they missed. You posting that makes you just as pompous and rude as the people asking for his opinion on certain games.

Show me your record! I follow this guy by his record and his detailed analysis! If you got better, show it and prove it! LTA is doing others favor by doing detailed analysis and jerks like u try to hijack the thread by posting BS... get a life and move on!

LTA, Ignore these guys and keep doing what you do! Mods, Is it possible for you to make a thread where only LTA can post?

[killersweet]

I like LTA's thread, cuz it has the least amount of nonsense. But i can see that it is changing now. Guys, let's keep it simple here. Only constructive posts please.

[pokerwhiz90]

bulls -14... toronto with no depth, and i don't think demar derozan or leandro barbosa are gonna have career nights back to back

[wguan2]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/14/2012

Play #1

Jazz (-8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

With the Nets in a fatigue spot (b2b, 3 in 4), coming off a win over Phoenix and the Jazz playing with revenge from losing last season, left over bitterness about the Williams trade and anger about losing to the Lakers in overtime the other day, I think this is a great situational spot for Utah. The Jazz have played well this season and I expect that to continue tonight. Even though both teams are playing 3 games in 4 nights, the Jazz rested last night while the Nets won a high paced energy depleting game in Phoenix. Utah dominates in the Nets in OEFF, DEFF, EFG%, OEFG%, TS%, OTS% and all the rebounding stats except for defensive rebounding. The biggest disparity is really all about defense, where Utah has played surprisingly well and the Nets are generally the worst team in the league right now. I think the Utah crowd will be rocking and rolling looking in this game and the altitude is going to hurt this Nets team in the 4th quarter. I suspect this is a rather close game through 3 quarters because Williams is the best player on either team and will be ultra-motivated, however, he can't do it alone and his teammates will not be as motivated as him, especially coming off a win yesterday. I think Utah wears the Nets down in the 4th and takes this game by 10 or more. I have this game set at -9.5 and I'm not going to take a chance with the hook on this one by buying down to -8. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

LTA, I feel like you could've really waited on this play to get the key number 7 especially if you're willing to buy the hook. I think the public will be all over the Nets here. The line just moved to 8 and Pinny is juicing the +8. I don't think this will get to 7, but 7.5 is probable. I'm not trying to criticize, just inciting some conversation rather than bashing plays and shit like these other fools, but this play just seems sort of out of character for you?

[Donnie Brasco]

LTA, I feel like you could've really waited on this play to get the key number 7 especially if you're willing to buy the hook. I think the public will be all over the Nets here. The line just moved to 8 and Pinny is juicing the +8. I don't think this will get to 7, but 7.5 is probable. I'm not trying to criticize, just inciting some conversation rather than bashing plays and shit like these other fools, but this play just seems sort of out of character for you?

Now this is productive conversation! I think we see this number creep back to 8.5, 9 before close. Fatigued at altitude after they rolled last night. Great fade spot.

[Donnie Brasco]

Public is on utah by the way. Bout 1800 bets

[YouHave2outs]

thank you for posting LTA

[SoxSide Irish]

Maybe Devin Harris can bust out of his slump tonight against his old team. How is he only averaging 8.7 ppg and shooting 34%? This guy used to be a solid PG

[Dmil]

Eight point is generous looks here. The Nets are on fire from beyond the arch over 50% last two games 35/67. D.Wil is out of his funk and will handle his busness. Nets 4-1 ATS last five .

[Dmil]

My bad Business spell wrong

[HCBoone]

Appreciate your posts always great and valuable opinions.

[wguan2]

You're right Donnie, Utah is the pub bet here. I glanced over that, sorry. It looks like the number is going back toward 8.5. Man.. I was really hoping for 7.5 but oh well, I went ahead and locked in 8 at -105. BOL LTA

[Love The Action]

Whoa...everyone take a deep breath.

First of all, no one even "bashed" me or my picks. Even if they did, there's no need to defend me. I'm a big boy and I can take care of myself. Although I appreciate the supportive sentiment, there's no need to chime in and defend me or attack other posters.

Second, please keep personal battles with other posters that you might develop in other threads out of this one. I would prefer that we just talk about basketball sports investing related topics.

Third, I really don't care if people ask questions about other picks that I have not made. However, everyone should realize that I model and cap the entire card. If I don't play something, there is a reason. Therefore, if you ask me about you really like but I have not posted, chances are you are not going to like what I have to say. You can just operate under the assumption that, if I don't play something, I don't like it for one reason or another. Furthermore, especially during the week, I don't even have the time to answer those types of questions so you shouldn't be offended if I don't respond.

Fourth, you guys are acting like a bunch of women. Stop it.

Fifth, the NBA season is like a roller coaster. There will be ups and downs. However, I expect to hit between 53% and 55% on the season. That is my sweet spot and that's what I have historically been able to do over a large NBA sample exceeding 1,000 plays. Before Thursday's 0-4 reverse sweep, I was hitting at 61%. Consequently, just like with players that shoot above their averages, a regression was expected. That's why you should never play my plays for more than 2%-5% of your BR. When I go bigger, you can go in the 4%-5% range. When I stick to 1x plays, you should be around 3%. When we're running hot like last week, you can play a little aggressive. When we cool off, pull back a little. You need to learn to manage your money if you are going to make it through the NBA season. You should expect where we roll off 10x in profit over a week and then drop a few units the next week. Then another streak, then a little dropoff. By the end of the season, there will be more streaks than dropoffs and the profit will accumulate. In sports investing, you need to be able to handle the ups and downs, peaks and valleys.

Finally, I really don't want to deal with all this BS. If anyone trolls around here, just ignore them and I will handle it. However, for the most part, the biggest SBR trolls stay away from my threads. Therefore, if everyone would just stop all this girlish bickering, we can get back to our goals of grinding out profit.

Thanks and good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I feel like you could've really waited on this play to get the key number 7 especially if you're willing to buy the hook. I think the public will be all over the Nets here. The line just moved to 8 and Pinny is juicing the +8. I don't think this will get to 7, but 7.5 is probable. I'm not trying to criticize, just inciting some conversation rather than bashing plays and shit like these other fools, but this play just seems sort of out of character for you?

The play itself is not out of character at all. This is a great situational spot for Utah and I generally play these spots where I think there's value.

The problem is that I just got head-faked by the line movement. I locked that one in around 10:30 EST, right when Pinny moved to Utah -8.5 (-111). At that same time, all the other books started to move to -9. I made the mistake of jumping on the -8.5 at that time and buying the hook because I had no way of knowing that the line would come back in favor of NJ. Because I had Utah set at -9.5, but really liked the situational spot for Utah, I thought it was worth just getting -8 -120 at that time, so I pulled the trigger.

It's still early in the season and neither me or my model are reading the line movement perfectly yet. I have not found my rhythm or my grasp on the market that I will have mid-season. It takes awhile for me to know how the market is going to react to certain team matchups at certain prices. Generally, once we get to mid season, I am beating closers over 75% of the time. Before this last week, I had a great early read on the market. During this week, the market made some adjustments that I was not ready for. This game is a perfect example. I really didn't see this move on NJ happening and it ended up being a bad decision to jump on the play when I did.

Regardless, yesterday I made four great plays that are long term winners and I still went 2-2. Hopefully, I get lucky today and turn a bad play like this one into a winner. In addition, I think we're starting to see a swing on Utah which might see it close at -8.5 or more. In which case, I will still be relatively satisfied even though I did not get the best number.

It will take a little time to find my rhythm and start firing on all cylinders. However, I pride myself on being ahead of the market and the vast majority of my plays to date have beaten the closer and that's what matters to me.

Now, let's cash Utah

[SoxSide Irish]

Fourth, you guys are acting like a bunch of women. Stop it.

Sounding like Ditka

[jck]

To all posters. Dont bet more than you can afford to lose on Utah -8 or any other of Ltas or anyone elses selections. I put a cap limit of 5% of bankroll on all games. Theres no such thing as a sure thing. This isnt as easy as LTA makes it look. It is very difficult to win at gambling or the casinos would be out of business if it was easy. Stay in control of yourself and be patient. The money we have lost the last couple of days has been the casinos money not ours if you been following LTA since the start. Hang in there it will get better. It always does.

[Speedy88]

to all posters. Dont bet more than you can afford to lose on utah -8 or any other of ltas or anyone elses selections. I put a cap limit of 5% of bankroll on all games. Theres no such thing as a sure thing. This isnt as easy as lta makes it look. It is very difficult to win at gambling or the casinos would be out of business if it was easy. Stay in control of yourself and be patient. The money we have lost the last couple of days has been the casinos money not ours if you been following lta since the start. Hang in there it will get better. It always does.

cool story bro!

[K-Rice]

LTA.. Checking In.

[Dmil]

Public is on utah by the way. Bout 1800 bets

Public is heavy on Utah at my book as well, but the line just dropped to 7.5

[jck]

Public isnt always wrong. Stick with your game plan and wager accordingly.

[mikea33]

LTA, enough with these people. Seriously guys get the **** out if you have nothing to contribute positively to the thread.

[Donnie Brasco]

Public is heavy on Utah at my book as well, but the line just dropped to 7.5

Gotta get more bet volume to decide RLM. havent checked lately

[Holdin Aces]

I like the Utah play, good luck!

[jck]

I put 3% of BR on Utah -8. We have plenty of time to put the 5 percenter on when we turn this corner

[wguan2]

Well said LTA, bol to us on the Utah play. You're completely right by the way about yesterday's plays. Those two early plays were two of the strongest plays I think in the past week and they died because of some 4th quarter bullshit. Oh well, happens. That's why the negativity before the game is over is unnecessary because anything can happen.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/14/2012

Play #1

Jazz (-8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

With the Nets in a fatigue spot (b2b, 3 in 4), coming off a win over Phoenix and the Jazz playing with revenge from losing last season, left over bitterness about the Williams trade and anger about losing to the Lakers in overtime the other day, I think this is a great situational spot for Utah. The Jazz have played well this season and I expect that to continue tonight. Even though both teams are playing 3 games in 4 nights, the Jazz rested last night while the Nets won a high paced energy depleting game in Phoenix. Utah dominates in the Nets in OEFF, DEFF, EFG%, OEFG%, TS%, OTS% and all the rebounding stats except for defensive rebounding. The biggest disparity is really all about defense, where Utah has played surprisingly well and the Nets are generally the worst team in the league right now. I think the Utah crowd will be rocking and rolling looking in this game and the altitude is going to hurt this Nets team in the 4th quarter. I suspect this is a rather close game through 3 quarters because Williams is the best player on either team and will be ultra-motivated, however, he can't do it alone and his teammates will not be as motivated as him, especially coming off a win yesterday. I think Utah wears the Nets down in the 4th and takes this game by 10 or more. I have this game set at -9.5 and I'm not going to take a chance with the hook on this one by buying down to -8. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get the key number of 187, but it never materialized. Nevertheless, I like fading the over after a game like yesterday. Philly shot the lights out and demolished the Wiz, so what's left to play for in this game. I suspect we see a sluggish start from both teams who had to travel last night. Generally, on b2b I look to back the over. However, in this case, today's total actually opened up lower than yesterday's total in this matchup which flew over. I think in this rare case, we need to be open to what the books are telling. Philly has played to 4 unders this year on b2b games showing that they might not come out with the same energy in these situations despite having a young team. Philly is great on offense and defense this year and playing very efficient, however, after shooting almost 56% percent as a team yesterday, I expect a letdown on offense today. All three refs favor the under with Garretson one of the biggest under refs we have on the NBA roster. The Wiz are the Wiz and play too ineeficient and undisciplined to light up the Philly defense, even if they are on a b2b. I only have this game set at 185, so not much value, but I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[apurvaas]

Play #2

76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get the key number of 187, but it never materialized. Nevertheless, I like fading the over after a game like yesterday. Philly shot the lights out and demolished the Wiz, so what's left to play for in this game. I suspect we see a sluggish start from both teams who had to travel last night. Generally, on b2b I look to back the over. However, in this case, today's total actually opened up lower than yesterday's total in this matchup which flew over. I think in this rare case, we need to be open to what the books are telling. Philly has played to 4 unders this year on b2b games showing that they might not come out with the same energy in these situations despite having a young team. Philly is great on offense and defense this year and playing very efficient, however, after shooting almost 56% percent as a team yesterday, I expect a letdown on offense today. All three refs favor the under with Garretson one of the biggest under refs we have on the NBA roster. The Wiz are the Wiz and play too ineeficient and undisciplined to light up the Philly defense, even if they are on a b2b. I only have this game set at 185, so not much value, but I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Got both the plays thanks

[jck]

Play #2

76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get the key number of 187, but it never materialized. Nevertheless, I like fading the over after a game like yesterday. Philly shot the lights out and demolished the Wiz, so what's left to play for in this game. I suspect we see a sluggish start from both teams who had to travel last night. Generally, on b2b I look to back the over. However, in this case, today's total actually opened up lower than yesterday's total in this matchup which flew over. I think in this rare case, we need to be open to what the books are telling. Philly has played to 4 unders this year on b2b games showing that they might not come out with the same energy in these situations despite having a young team. Philly is great on offense and defense this year and playing very efficient, however, after shooting almost 56% percent as a team yesterday, I expect a letdown on offense today. All three refs favor the under with Garretson one of the biggest under refs we have on the NBA roster. The Wiz are the Wiz and play too ineeficient and undisciplined to light up the Philly defense, even if they are on a b2b. I only have this game set at 185, so not much value, but I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Love this selection LTA
everyones thinking its gonna do the same thing as yesterday
Im gonna put a samll 1% BR on Wash +8 for payback to philly
Good Luck guy

[jck]

This philly is a scoring machine

[inn_keeper]

This philly is a scoring machine

Close but no cigar...

[Dmil]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/14/2012

Play #1

Jazz (-8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

With the Nets in a fatigue spot (b2b, 3 in 4), coming off a win over Phoenix and the Jazz playing with revenge from losing last season, left over bitterness about the Williams trade and anger about losing to the Lakers in overtime the other day, I think this is a great situational spot for Utah. The Jazz have played well this season and I expect that to continue tonight. Even though both teams are playing 3 games in 4 nights, the Jazz rested last night while the Nets won a high paced energy depleting game in Phoenix. Utah dominates in the Nets in OEFF, DEFF, EFG%, OEFG%, TS%, OTS% and all the rebounding stats except for defensive rebounding. The biggest disparity is really all about defense, where Utah has played surprisingly well and the Nets are generally the worst team in the league right now. I think the Utah crowd will be rocking and rolling looking in this game and the altitude is going to hurt this Nets team in the 4th quarter. I suspect this is a rather close game through 3 quarters because Williams is the best player on either team and will be ultra-motivated, however, he can't do it alone and his teammates will not be as motivated as him, especially coming off a win yesterday. I think Utah wears the Nets down in the 4th and takes this game by 10 or more. I have this game set at -9.5 and I'm not going to take a chance with the hook on this one by buying down to -8. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

Went other direction . Nice call