LTA's MLB Plays

[gunnersgun]

for those who haven't been paying attention, whenever you see lta make a multi-unit play, hit it hard asap, don't even ask questions, just blindly follow. thanks once again lta.

[815Sox]

Man, that was sure something to see the Cards celebrating while Howard lays injured. Appears like I underestimated a team or two this post season. Thanks again for the plays LTA!

[upscope]

[No coincidences]

Bet the farm on halladay tomorrow -180. What did cliff close at in game 2, something like -167? and over 6.5 -117 wow

Nice hits on the under BTW LTA.

[hardball]

Nice hits on the under BTW LTA.

[Donnie Brasco]

Ur the man bro!

[Love The Action]

If you are digging the unders and feeling adventurous parlaying the 2 dogs with the unders gives like a 19-1 payout. Not advocating this play just info.

I have a feeling you did this and the Brewers were your only downfall....that's why I hate parlays. Three out of four straight up is some nice profit...three out of four in a parlay is a loser...

Damn...was hoping you would hit this

[Jago2008]

LTA I just want to say thank you, I parlayed some of your baseball choices w/ some of my own check this out:

Ticket Number:138258033Accepted Date:10/7/2011 - ESTGraded Date:10/8/2011Wager Type:TotalWager Status:WinRisk:$55.00 (USD) To Win Amount:$1,857.95 (USD)
Description: Baseball - MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Arizona Diamondbacks/Milwaukee Brewers. Under 7 1/2.
Baseball - MLB - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - St. Louis Cardinals/Philadelphia Phillies under 7
Football - NCAA - Boise State vs. Fresno State - Boise State -20 1/2
Basketball - WNBA - Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream - Minnesota Lynx ML +175
Hockey - NHL - Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes - Tampa Bay Lightning +105


Oct 07, 2011 07:15 AM Parlay Win $55.00 $1,857.95



Cheers.

Thanks again.

[Love The Action]

Where's the guy that said he could take the Phillies every day and win more than us

Just another lost soul devoured by the vig

[Love The Action]

LTA I just want to say thank you, I parlayed some of your baseball choices w/ some of my own check this out:

Ticket Number:138258033Accepted Date:10/7/2011 - ESTGraded Date:10/8/2011Wager Type:TotalWager Status:WinRisk:$55.00 (USD) To Win Amount:$1,857.95 (USD)
Description: Baseball - MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Arizona Diamondbacks/Milwaukee Brewers. Under 7 1/2.
Baseball - MLB - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - St. Louis Cardinals/Philadelphia Phillies under 7
Football - NCAA - Boise State vs. Fresno State - Boise State -20 1/2
Basketball - WNBA - Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream - Minnesota Lynx ML +175
Hockey - NHL - Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes - Tampa Bay Lightning +110


Oct 07, 2011 07:15 AM Parlay Win $55.00 $1,857.95 Cheers.

Thanks again.

Wow...nice hit! I'm glad I could help

[Redscot]

I have a feeling you did this and the Brewers were your only downfall....that's why I hate parlays. Three out of four straight up is some nice profit...three out of four in a parlay is a loser...

Damn...was hoping you would hit this

You know me all to well my brother . End of the day between your baseball and NCAA won plenty of units, I only had .2 on the parlay to win roughly 4, I liked it apart from the payoff, I thought there was a beter than 20-1 chance that it would hit. Still, you are right, parlays are not forserious betting, I like them for the excitement and the occasional big hit.

Keep up the hot hand my man, you have been tremendous lately

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/7/11

2 - 0 = +4.5x

MLB 2011 Playoffs

9 - 5 = +4.332x

Since we lost that 4x play last Sunday, we are 8 - 1 for around +10.8x. Not bad for one week...let's keep it going!

[Love The Action]

You know me all to well my brother . End of the day between your baseball and NCAA won plenty of units, I only had .2 on the parlay to win roughly 4, I liked it apart from the payoff, I thought there was a beter than 20-1 chance that it would hit. Still, you are right, parlays are not forserious betting, I like them for the excitement and the occasional big hit.

Keep up the hot hand my man, you have been tremendous lately

Time to get to work...big day of NCAAF and I fell asleep on the couch early last night without getting much work done...have a lot to do...my NCAAF thread should be hopping today

[Redscot]

Time to get to work...big day of NCAAF and I fell asleep on the couch early last night without getting much work done...have a lot to do...my NCAAF thread should be hopping today

I was wondering where you were amidst all the excitement last night. Thought it was some superstition or something .

[Love The Action]

I was wondering where you were amidst all the excitement last night. Thought it was some superstition or something .

Nope...just tired

Didn't get much sleep during the week...

[Love The Action]

Thanks again LTA. I wish there was some way I could ship you some beer through SBR as a small token of my appreciation for all your work.

Since Carp's short start loss, you have been flawless bro, no easy task . Great job, looking forward to the rest of the playoffs

great job LTA...wish I would have tailed last night also. Look forward to your insight for the championship series...

for those who haven't been paying attention, whenever you see lta make a multi-unit play, hit it hard asap, don't even ask questions, just blindly follow. thanks once again lta.

Man, that was sure something to see the Cards celebrating while Howard lays injured. Appears like I underestimated a team or two this post season. Thanks again for the plays LTA!

Ur the man bro!

Thanks guys...let's keep it going for Saturday

[Love The Action]

Just wanted to congratulate Big Dan and his Cardinals on winning yesterday...I know that one was about more than money....here's to you and the Cards buddy

[BiffTFinancial]

LTA, played some bases this week, and tailed you a bunch. for the week, i'm up about 13u, and the only loss tailing you was on the PHI/StL under in game four on that passed ball. great job, pal, and thanks.

[upscope]

Yea I agree LTA....I have been running really sour lately & had lost all confidence in ever cashing another ticket. Pounded those unders last night along w/ getting lucky on the Boise total & am flying high feeling like im ready to piss on some bookmakers today....definitely will be tailing ncaa today.

thanx again for helping restore some confidence.

[Love The Action]

LTA, played some bases this week, and tailed you a bunch. for the week, i'm up about 13u, and the only loss tailing you was on the PHI/StL under in game four on that passed ball. great job, pal, and thanks.

Glad I could help

BTW, in that Philly/Cards Game 4, I only played the Cards on the ML. I did not play the under in that game...maybe you tailed Red on that one because I think he played it.

Good luck today bud

[Love The Action]

Yea I agree LTA....I have been running really sour lately & had lost all confidence in ever cashing another ticket. Pounded those unders last night along w/ getting lucky on the Boise total & am flying high feeling like im ready to piss on some bookmakers today....definitely will be tailing ncaa today.

thanx again for helping restore some confidence.

Glad I could help....hopefully we can have another profitable day

[Redscot]

Lifted this from another forum:

The two umpiring crews that will work the American League and National League Championship Series have been named, Major League Baseball announced on Friday.
Tim Welke, a 28-year Major League umpire, will be the crew chief for the ALCS. That series, which pits the Tigers against the Rangers, will begin on Saturday. The broadcast begins on FOX at 7:30 p.m. ET, with first pitch at 8:05 p.m., from the Ballpark in Arlington.
Welke has worked 17 career postseason assignments, which includes six LCS and four World Series. He'll be joined by Larry Vanover, Jim Wolf, Fieldin Culbreth, Jeff Nelson and regular season crew chief Tom Hallion. Combined, the group has worked 49 postseason assignments.

Gary Darling, a 25-year Major League umpire, will be the crew chief for the NLCS between the NL Central rivals Brewers and Cardinals. That series begins on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TBS, with first pitch at 4:05 p.m., at Miller Park.
Darling has had 14 career postseason assignments, which includes three LCS and two World Series. He'll be joined by Tim Timmons, Sam Holbrook, Mike Everitt, Bill Miller and regular season crew chief Mike Winters. Combined, the group has worked 53 postseason assignments.

[Love The Action]

Lifted this from another forum:

The two umpiring crews that will work the American League and National League Championship Series have been named, Major League Baseball announced on Friday.
Tim Welke, a 28-year Major League umpire, will be the crew chief for the ALCS. That series, which pits the Tigers against the Rangers, will begin on Saturday. The broadcast begins on FOX at 7:30 p.m. ET, with first pitch at 8:05 p.m., from the Ballpark in Arlington.
Welke has worked 17 career postseason assignments, which includes six LCS and four World Series. He'll be joined by Larry Vanover, Jim Wolf, Fieldin Culbreth, Jeff Nelson and regular season crew chief Tom Hallion. Combined, the group has worked 49 postseason assignments.

Gary Darling, a 25-year Major League umpire, will be the crew chief for the NLCS between the NL Central rivals Brewers and Cardinals. That series begins on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TBS, with first pitch at 4:05 p.m., at Miller Park.
Darling has had 14 career postseason assignments, which includes three LCS and two World Series. He'll be joined by Tim Timmons, Sam Holbrook, Mike Everitt, Bill Miller and regular season crew chief Mike Winters. Combined, the group has worked 53 postseason assignments.

Thanks...do the crew chiefs start the series behind the plate?

Anyone have time to check who the crew chief was for the ALDS and NLDS and if they all started those series behind home plate?

Thanks

[lakerboy]

LTA who are you taking tonight?

[Redscot]

Thanks...do the crew chiefs start the series behind the plate?

Anyone have time to check who the crew chief was for the ALDS and NLDS and if they all started those series behind home plate?

Thanks

This from an interview with Ump Gerry Davis:

And there are six umpires on the field instead of four.
Yes. We have two additional sets of eyes – one down the right field line and another in left. This effects our rotation: For a postseason series, the crew chief starts behind home plate and rotates clockwise, moving from home to right field, left field, third base, second base, first base, and back behind the plate. What that amounts to is each umpire has a smaller area of responsibility.

[815Sox]

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
Danny Worth replaces Delmon Young on #Tigers' ALCS roster. #Rangers #MLB

Delmon Young is out

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/8/11

Play #1

Tigers/Rangers under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

There is no way in the world this one goes to 8, so if you can get plus odds and you like this play you might as well lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and they would have to score 8 to burn the under with a matchup that pits two of the best pitchers in the AL against two of the best lineups in the AL. Both pitchers have superior advanced stats, so I won't waste my time detailing everything. Just know these guys are top level guys. The Detroit lineup will be without Delmon Young and he has been their best hitter in a struggling lineup. The biggest pieces of the Tigers lineup have not been producing, especially their best hitter in Cabrera. That lineup will be facing CJ Wilson who struggled mightily against the Rays in the opener of that series. I expect a nice bounce back from Wilson facing a lineup against which he has found some prior success only giving up a collective 10 RBI's and 1 HR over 79 AB's. On the other side, you have a Texas lineup that has been on the sidelines watching the action the last few days going against Verlander who has pretty much dominated them throughout his career. The only regular part of that lineup that who has hit over .300 against Verlander is Hamilton, with 4 hits in 11 AB's. Verlander threw 120 pitches in his last outting, but I don't see fatigue being a factor because most of his starts end in that range. There will be no wind tunnel effect tonight as the wind is predicted to blow directly in at 15 mph from center field. The ump is Tim Welke, who generally has a solid lean. However, if you dig deep into his past stats, he generally has a strike rate in the high 63% range and also leans under when it comes to games set at 7.5 and under. That tells me he may tend to give the high end pitchers the benefit of the doubt. I think this game is too close to call on the side, because both pitchers have great advanced stats and the lineups are not that far apart either. However, I think pitching wins out in this game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[815Sox]

I am on it... lets get it!

[scaredmoney]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/8/11

Play #1

Tigers/Rangers under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

There is no way in the world this one goes to 8, so if you can get plus odds and you like this play you might as well lock it in now. I have this one at 6.7 and they would have to score 8 to burn the under with a matchup that pits two of the best pitchers in the AL against two of the best lineups in the AL. Both pitchers have superior advanced stats, so I won't waste my time detailing everything. Just know these guys are top level guys. The Detroit lineup will be without Delmon Young and he has been their best hitter in a struggling lineup. The biggest pieces of the Tigers lineup have not been producing, especially their best hitter in Cabrera. That lineup will be facing CJ Wilson who struggled mightily against the Rays in the opener of that series. I expect a nice bounce back from Wilson facing a lineup against which he has found some prior success only giving up a collective 10 RBI's and 1 HR over 79 AB's. On the other side, you have a Texas lineup that has been on the sidelines watching the action the last few days going against Verlander who has pretty much dominated them throughout his career. The only regular part of that lineup that who has hit over .300 against Verlander is Hamilton, with 4 hits in 11 AB's. Verlander threw 120 pitches in his last outting, but I don't see fatigue being a factor because most of his starts end in that range. There will be no wind tunnel effect tonight as the wind is predicted to blow directly in at 15 mph from center field. The ump is Tim Welke, who generally has a solid lean. However, if you dig deep into his past stats, he generally has a strike rate in the high 63% range and also leans under when it comes to games set at 7.5 and under. That tells me he may tend to give the high end pitchers the benefit of the doubt. I think this game is too close to call on the side, because both pitchers have great advanced stats and the lineups are not that far apart either. However, I think pitching wins out in this game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Just no chance there is any value here. If you have 6.7 for a rangers home game I assume your model is not park adjusted or that it's severely underestimating park effect

[Redscot]

Just no chance there is any value here. If you have 6.7 for a rangers home game I assume your model is not park adjusted or that it's severely underestimating park effect

Is this new handle an attempt at camouflage?

[scaredmoney]

Is this new handle an attempt at camouflage?

Nah just the first thing I thought of. I'm sure it won't last 24 hours . It's too bad everyone missed out on rangers +107 huuge

[Love The Action]

Just no chance there is any value here. If you have 6.7 for a rangers home game I assume your model is not park adjusted or that it's severely underestimating park effect

No it's included, but so is weather, which is currently mitigating the parks value. A wind blowing directly in at a velocity at more than 12mph is deemed "substantial" in my approach and enough to mitigate the effects of the ballpark itself. Tonight, the wind is blowing directly from the SE at 15 mph and it's supposed to stay that way. Weather can always change, however, so there is a chance the value I have assigned is off by about .3-.4.

[Redscot]

Nah just the first thing I thought of. I'm sure it won't last 24 hours . It's too bad everyone missed out on rangers +107 huuge

Wow, there is a lot of that sentiment going around....What am I missing? Don't see this so decisive tonight.

[scaredmoney]

Wow, there is a lot of that sentiment going around....What am I missing? Don't see this so decisive tonight.

The value is all gone at this point but Verlander was just being priced at absurd level from the outset

And if this senitment comes from people wanting to bet the rangers at -104, well you know what my answer to that is

[scaredmoney]

No it's included, but so is weather, which is currently mitigating the parks value. A wind blowing directly in at a velocity at more than 12mph is deemed "substantial" in my approach and enough to mitigate the effects of the ballpark itself. Tonight, the wind is blowing directly from the SE at 15 mph and it's supposed to stay that way. Weather can always change, however, so there is a chance the value I have assigned is off by about .3-.4.

Do you have evidence on the wind blowing in's effect at arlington? not all winds are created equal in all ballparks. In San Francisco, the wind blows out at 20+ every game. I think you are overestimating the wind here, I've seen plenty of 20+ mph blowing in winds this year from detroit to florida and they were all priced normally which implied the wind was a near non factor