LTA's MLB Plays

**Donnie Brasco** · 09-21-11, 10:03 AM

Wow, was the line u got on shields before or after the pitching change? Up to -135 at 5 dimes!

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I would have rather faced hughes, but I'm not worried. I played shields/action, so my play stands as long as shields starts. I figured this would be a possibility because of hughes' back spasms, but noesi won't be able to go more than 5 innings. Tampa should hit today and wih them facing cc later, they know this first game is crucial.

Were you thinking they may possibly slot C.C. into first game when you played action? I agree that this 1st game is huge for them and Shields has been an ace this year. Not up on my board yet, GL

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 10:06 AM

Holy crap...shields is now -135 after the pitching change....I could have had a huge middle if I put a max bet on shields at +108...

Gotta love beating the closer by fifty cents

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Holy crap...shields is now -135 after the pitching change....I could have had a huge middle if I put a max bet on shields at +108...

Gotta love beating the closer by fifty cents

Interesting Maddon has rookie Lobaton catching him in this big spot, that is showing a lot of confidence.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Were you thinking they may possibly slot C.C. into first game when you played action? I agree that this 1st game is huge for them and Shields has been an ace this year. Not up on my board yet, GL

I considered it, but that would not have been the right call by girardi. Why go ace versus ace, when he could try to steal the first game and then have a huge pitching advantage by having cc ready to go for game 2...it was a calculated gamble that worked out well....now the rays just need to win

**Gio21** · 09-21-11, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I considered it, but that would not have been the right call by girardi. Why go ace versus ace, when he could try to steal the first game and then have a huge pitching advantage by having cc ready to go for game 2...it was a calculated gamble that worked out well....now the rays just need to win

Line went from -102 to -142 with the pitching change .40+ cent steal!!

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 10:16 AM

WTF just happend to the Angels line?

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

WTF just happend to the Angels line?

I have no idea...worst call by me in a long time. I think some sort of info came out that is not publicly available....

I have not had a line move thirty cents against me all year. Something is going on that is out of the ordinary...hopefully we get lucky, but its a losing play for me regardless of final outcome....weird...

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I have no idea...worst call by me in a long time. I think some sort of info came out that is not publicly available....

I have not had a line move thirty cents against me all year. Something is going on that is out of the ordinary...hopefully we get lucky, but its a losing play for me regardless of final outcome....weird...

Can't factor that into your model bro, that's just some bad luck. I am curious what it is

. I do have Tor +155 available to me atm, already bought 1 unit.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Can't factor that into your model bro, that's just some bad luck. I am curious what it is

. I do have Tor +155 available to me atm, already bought 1 unit.

Someone or multiple guys in the Angels lineup must be out...either that, or I just made a huge miscalculation....i believe it's the former as opposed to ther latter, but we will find out when the lineups are released.

I suppose I could buy out and eat the juice, but I want to find out what's going on first...i still like Haren in this comeback spot...i can't imagine this move is based on his poor history against yoronto...

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 11:04 AM

No ramirez or pena for the cubs, so hopefully that helps our under...

I really missed the boat by not locking that reds/astros over in at 8....too late now.

**No coincidences** · 09-21-11, 11:10 AM

Like most of your plays LTA, though I'm on the other side of your Jays bet. Got it at a good price last night.

BOL my friend.

**bigballer891** · 09-21-11, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Someone or multiple guys in the Angels lineup must be out...either that, or I just made a huge miscalculation....i believe it's the former as opposed to ther latter, but we will find out when the lineups are released.

I suppose I could buy out and eat the juice, but I want to find out what's going on first...i still like Haren in this comeback spot...i can't imagine this move is based on his poor history against yoronto...

I think you just miscalculated that one LTA, that line was just massively inflated because LA needs to win and toronto does not. Scosica has been wearing the shit out of haren and weaver all year. Mcgowan is a top prospect who has just been injured for the last year. Nobody really knows what he's going to do. He could dominate or get lit up. Not to mention, Harens career mark at the rodgers centre and the blue jays have the edge in batting. I think somewhere in the -130 range would be fair value for the angels. GL tonite LTA.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Like most of your plays LTA, though I'm on the other side of your Jays bet. Got it at a good price last night.

BOL my friend.

Same to you

Any idea why the angels price dropped so precipitously?

**No coincidences** · 09-21-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Same to you

Any idea why the angels price dropped so precipitously?

Not sure, but haven't done much reading yet today.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by bigballer891

I think you just miscalculated that one LTA, that line was just massively inflated because LA needs to win and toronto does not. Scosica has been wearing the shit out of haren and weaver all year. Mcgowan is a top prospect who has just been injured for the last year. Nobody really knows what he's going to do. He could dominate or get lit up. Not to mention, Harens career mark at the rodgers centre and the blue jays have the edge in batting. I think somewhere in the -130 range would be fair value for the angels. GL tonite LTA.

Perhaps I undervalued Mcgowan...but this is only his third mlb start back after two tears of rehab...

Plus, even though he was a solid prospect, he never really performed well in mlb games except for 2007...4 years ago!!!

If this huge line move is based solely on harens poor history against toronto and the mere possibility that mcgowan will pitch well, as opposed to a couple guys being out for the angels, I may add to the play as opposed to buying out.

Sorry, I'm not buying the mcgowan for cy young bs...

Its hard to believe my model and I made such a huge miscalculation.

**bigballer891** · 09-21-11, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Perhaps I undervalued Mcgowan...but this is only his third mlb start back after two tears of rehab...

Plus, even though he was a solid prospect, he never really performed well in mlb games except for 2007...4 years ago!!!

If this huge line move is based solely on harens poor history against toronto and the mere possibility that mcgowan will pitch well, as opposed to a couple guys being out for the angels, I may add to the play as opposed to buying out.

Sorry, I'm not buying the mcgowan for cy young bs...

Its hard to believe my model and I made such a huge miscalculation.

I never said anything about cy young. He was a young guy with great stuff learning how to pitch before he got injured. His aggregate numbers dont tell the whole story. He was starting to come around before the injury, he was really showing signs of possibly becoming a top 2 pitcher on the team. Again, obviously at this point, nobody knows what hes capable of but the potential is certainly there.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by bigballer891

I never said anything about cy young. He was a young guy with great stuff learning how to pitch before he got injured. His aggregate numbers dont tell the whole story. He was starting to come around before the injury, he was really showing signs of possibly becoming a top 2 pitcher on the team. Again, obviously at this point, nobody knows what hes capable of but the potential is certainly there.

I know you never said cy young...i was taking in general.

Thanks...do you know if he's on a pitch count? I can't imagine his endurance is very high right now....maybe five innings at best and then torontos bullpen is in play...

Good luck in whatever you play

**bigballer891** · 09-21-11, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I know you never said cy young...i was taking in general.

Thanks...do you know if he's on a pitch count? I can't imagine his endurance is very high right now....maybe five innings at best and then torontos bullpen is in play...

Good luck in whatever you play

no I havent seen anything, around 5 innings sounds about right, I doubt he would go more than 6 and then you get into the jays pen. The sooner the better for you.

**EdV38** · 09-21-11, 01:32 PM

No, you didn't undervalue McGowan. Until he gets his K:BB rate better than 1 there's no reason to assume he's back to 2007 (I think that was his one good year - not looking it up) form.

Personally, I think you overvalued Haren in this spot. Does your model take into account pitcher's performances at the ballpark they are pitching? I know you said 32 innings is not enough (usually 30 instances of something is enough to be considered statistically significant). But if 32 innings is not enough for a guy that's been pitching as long as Haren has, you'll pretty much never get any statistically significant numbers outside of inter-divisional games.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by EdV38

No, you didn't undervalue McGowan. Until he gets his K:BB rate better than 1 there's no reason to assume he's back to 2007 (I think that was his one good year - not looking it up) form.

Personally, I think you overvalued Haren in this spot. Does your model take into account pitcher's performances at the ballpark they are pitching? I know you said 32 innings is not enough (usually 30 instances of something is enough to be considered statistically significant). But if 32 innings is not enough for a guy that's been pitching as long as Haren has, you'll pretty much never get any statistically significant numbers outside of inter-divisional games.

Historical performances are not weighted directly into my model, but are considered by me in making a play.

I use my model to identify possible plays with value. Once those plays are identified, then I cap those particular games from every angle possible. If the play fits my model and passes muster after capping it further, I then make it a play.

Thanks for your contribution today and please feel free to provide your input more often.

I would be interested in hearing other people's thoughts as well on when statistical significance is reached when considering pitcher/batter historical matchup data. I am generally of the belief that you need about 500 at bats against one pitcher to have any true statistically significant data for that matchup. Otherwise, head to head matchups are considered, but the weight I give it varies.

**goldengreek** · 09-21-11, 02:17 PM

Got rid of God1 for you guys... enjoy

Good luck LTA and the rest of you guys !

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by goldengreek

Got rid of God1 for you guys... enjoy

Good luck LTA and test rest of you guys !

. I'm taking bets on his next screen name. I think Holy Roller would be good or maybe Divine Intervention

.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 03:36 PM

Well that yankee game sure sucked....we were winning the entire game until the bottom of the 8th when the yankees scored 3 to hand TB the loss...ouch.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 05:09 PM

Just missed the big move on the indians under....line must have changed right before I hit confirm.

Definitely not playing it at 8, so hopefully they saved me some money.

Looking at kc and kc under right now.

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Just missed the big move on the indians under....line must have changed right before I hit confirm.

Definitely not playing it at 8, so hopefully they saved me some money.

Looking at kc and kc under right now.

Glad I tailed you on that Cubs under bro

.

I was able to grab Clev 8 1/2 at -105 fortunately (well, we will see if fortunately

)

Been staring at that K.C under all day man. Honestly I am more worried about K.C. putting up runs than Detroit! Maybe I need to play K.C., they have been stroking and they split with Detroit before Detroit went on their big winning streak.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 05:43 PM

Trout and Kendrick both out of the lineup tonight...why the fuk would they sit kendrick!?!? Well that explains part of the big move, but not all of it

Not feeling particularly good about play #1 right now.

Also missed the line move on kc and kc under because of work. Coupled with that rough loss in ny and this has not been my day so far.

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Glad I tailed you on that Cubs under bro

.

I was able to grab Clev 8 1/2 at -105 fortunately (well, we will see if fortunately

)

Been staring at that K.C under all day man. Honestly I am more worried about K.C. putting up runs than Detroit! Maybe I need to play K.C., they have been stroking and they split with Detroit before Detroit went on their big winning streak.

I might just play kc despite the shitty price....i generally won't play anything after all the value is gone, but this is a good spot for kc.

**Gio21** · 09-21-11, 05:47 PM

.....

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Trout and Kendrick both out of the lineup tonight...why the fuk would they sit kendrick!?!? Well that explains part of the big move, but not all of it

Not feeling particularly good about play #1 right now.

Also missed the line move on kc and kc under because of work. Coupled with that rough loss in ny and this has not been my day so far.

Game still has to be played bro, McGowan is no sure thing and Angels are still favored to win.

I am sure whatever was taking up your time at work will bring more income to you and your fam than the K.C. game my man

. You have been killing it lately, enjoy the spoils

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Game still has to be played bro, McGowan is no sure thing and Angels are still favored to win.

I am sure whatever was taking up your time at work will bring more income to you and your fam than the K.C. game my man

. You have been killing it lately, enjoy the spoils

Good point...I'm not one take anything for granted and I'm lucky enough to have a career and employer which provides me with the flexibility to get a ton of capping done at the office. Especially with this economy and job climate, everyone with a stable job should be thankful. Thanks for reminding me about priorities

**Redscot** · 09-21-11, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Good point...I'm not one take anything for granted and I'm lucky enough to have a career and employer which provides me with the flexibility to get a ton of capping done at the office. Especially with this economy and job climate, everyone with a stable job should be thankful. Thanks for reminding me about priorities

Right on man,gotta return the favor to you. One of the main things I have picked up following you is discipline, positive outlook and even keel

.

**guil0000** · 09-21-11, 06:06 PM

Lawrie out for the Jays

**alamo** · 09-21-11, 06:23 PM

Hi LTA, I took the Angels in running (Bet365 excellent for inrunning!) at Even money after middle of the 1st. I find this to be a very profitable way of beating the juice and recommend it. Just said id share !

**Love The Action** · 09-21-11, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Hi LTA, I took the Angels in running (Bet365 excellent for inrunning!) at Even money after middle of the 1st. I find this to be a very profitable way of beating the juice and recommend it. Just said id share !

What happened that the line was so low...I don't see a score.