LTA's MLB Plays

[815Sox]

Dang, I really like that Reds under too...

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked) CANCELLED -- PITCHING CHANGE MALONEY IN FOR WILLIS

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

This is my biggest play since we cashed with the 4x Cards/Brewers under with Carpenter and Greinke pitching. Today, we have Carpenter and Hamels taking the mound. If this wasn't Sunday, I would give you a huge writeup, however, I have NFL and MLB action to cap. Needless to say, both guys have great advanced stats and both have found great success against these lineups. We have the ESPN Sunday Night game trend and the wind should be blowing straight in from center at 10mph or more. The ump is Darling who is one of the long time best under umps. Both pitchers will be geared up for this one and I expect a classic pitchers dual with the Cardinals fighting to stay in the wild card chase. My model has this one at 6 even and I'm rolling with the under for 5x. Good luck.

Play #5

Astros/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I have to play this one despite the weather concerns. I have it at 7.5 flat, so I'm getting 1.5 runs of value despite a possible wind that shifts from across the field to out to left. The wind is blowing at about 12 mph from right to left, with about 30% of rain. I'm risking that we don't see any weather delays that hurt our starters chance at returning. I like this pitching matchup with Myers and Dempster and this total is way too high because of the weather which might not even hit. Most of the market is still at 8.5, so I'm happy to pay the -120 for 9 and protect against a push with a final of 9. It's going to take a total of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening today. Both pitchers have fared well against these lineups in the past and I expect the same today. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Indians/Twins under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is labeled as Play #6, but in actuality it will be our fifth MLB play because our Mil/Cincy under should be cancelled now that Maloney was substituted for Willis. In this game, I was hoping for a better number to materialize but the juice started to go even greater on the under so I'm locking it now at -115. Masterson has been great all year, if not in his last few starts. Masterson is just an advanced stat stud with a great WAR, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, K% and GB/FB. I think this presents a great bounce back game for Masterson against a weakened Twins lineup. On the other side, Pavano is actually better than people think if you go through his advanced stats. Plus, he has pitched well against the Indians lineup. The wind is blowing in from right at 10 mph and the ump is Everitt with a solid under lean. I'm playing the under in this one for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #6

Indians/Twins under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

This is labeled as Play #6, but in actuality it will be our fifth MLB play because our Mil/Cincy under should be cancelled now that Maloney was substituted for Willis. In this game, I was hoping for a better number to materialize but the juice started to go even greater on the under so I'm locking it now at -115. Masterson has been great all year, if not in his last few starts. Masterson is just an advanced stat stud with a great WAR, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, K% and GB/FB. I think this presents a great bounce back game for Masterson against a weakened Twins lineup. On the other side, Pavano is actually better than people think if you go through his advanced stats. Plus, he has pitched well against the Indians lineup. The wind is blowing in from right at 10 mph and the ump is Everitt with a solid under lean. I'm playing the under in this one for 1x. Good luck.

I was hoping I would see this play pop up as I was already on it.

[Love The Action]

I was hoping I would see this play pop up as I was already on it.

Let's get it Red...big day!!! Hopefully we can add to you boxing windfall from last night and really piss off your local

[BubbleTeaJelly]

with you all the way LTA....!

[Love The Action]

added at reds under-107(above the normal per game limit) and the braves -175 is now in the "huge" category

So what happened...does your book give out action on totals or listed pitchers? Both my books are listed pitchers on totals so my Mil under was cancelled.

I'm not rebooking with Maloney at a lesser number, so I'm of that one...good luck if you're still on it...

Oh, and when you say "above normal per game limit"...is that your personal limit or your book's max bet?

I think you'll cash that Braves play, but what do you have it priced at? I think the Braves are a little expensive here...I can't believe you have this at -185 or more?

Nice call on your Orioles play...huge drop in price. I'm a big fan of Weaver's measurables, despite his slight drop in velocity, so I'm not going to fade him but I wish you luck in doing so. You got a great price.

[Love The Action]

Why does the market seem to like Maloney more than Willis in that Milwaukee game? The under is getting pounded with Maloney, moreso than it did with Willis...Maloney's advanced stats are generally worse.

[Redscot]

Why does the market seem to like Maloney more than Willis in that Milwaukee game? The under is getting pounded with Maloney, moreso than it did with Willis...Maloney's advanced stats are generally worse.

As you were saying, just lit him up for 4 in the first .

[Love The Action]

Yeah...it's 7-0 now...sure glad my bet got cancelled.

[God1]

Im in a charitable mood heres what booked so far....rays -132 braves -175 orioles +184(huge) reds under 9 -110(huge) twins under 8.5 +104 rangers +105

And that is why they call me god. Beat EVERY closer sometimes I even amaze myself

my reds bet wasn't cancelled because I don't specifiy pitchers, you have the option to I don't

[God1]

Post all your plays in here or another thread from now until the rest of the season....it'll give you a platform to track your plays and stir up some discussion.

Or, if you don't want to give away all your "secrets," post them right after the game starts.

I'm already on the Rays -132 as well. Will probably be on the Mil under...working on that one now.

I disagree with your Braves play. They are too expensive in that spot with Beachy possibly regressing a bit. Also disagree with your Balty and Texas plays, but wish you luck.

Braves still might've had value at the -184 close. Not posting my plays

[Love The Action]

And that is why they call me god. Beat EVERY closer sometimes I even amaze myself

my reds bet wasn't cancelled because I don't specifiy pitchers, you have the option to I don't

Uh...no one calls you anything...you call yourself that...big difference

I don't need to call myself anything...I just beat closers as well though...every one on the card (Cards/Phils under pending).

Hopefully, you can get lucky on the Brewers under....

[Love The Action]

Braves still might've had value at the -184 close. Not posting my plays

Weak...

[815Sox]

Dumpster with a crappy start. Hopefully he settles down. Almost time to take him out to the pasture.

[Allure]

Brandon Sluty. Gets bitch slapped!

Game over. Fukk you Braves.

[Love The Action]

Brandon Sluty. Gets bitch slapped!

Game over. Fukk you Braves.

Yeah...I've been worrying about Beachy...they are coming back though...nevertheless, win or lose, the Braves were overvalued in that spot IMO

[God1]

Brandon Sluty. Gets bitch slapped!

Game over. Fukk you Braves.

4-1 in the 4th inning is game over i dont think so not with gee pitching

[God1]

Yeah...I've been worrying about Beachy...they are coming back though...nevertheless, win or lose, the Braves were overvalued in that spot IMO

worrying? Guy is pitching out of his mind lately and pitching better now than earlier in the season. He's their best pitcher right now

[Love The Action]

Dumpster with a crappy start. Hopefully he settles down. Almost time to take him out to the pasture.

Yeah...we need to get a few back to back scoreless innings. Bad...

[Love The Action]

worrying? Guy is pitching out of his mind lately and pitching better now than earlier in the season. He's their best pitcher right now

I would say Hudson is still by far their most dependable pitcher. Hudson 3.4 WAR to Beachy's 2.4.

Beachy is a monster with the strikeouts though...

I sort of like Minor right now, especially against teams that struggle against lefties.

The Braves strength has been pitching all season...that's why you didn't want to play them in a 3 game series. I'm not so sure that's the case right now. All of the starters have question marks right now, but the staff remains one of the best in MLB.

[Allure]

4-1 in the 4th inning is game over i dont think so not with gee pitching

Alright, I've overreacted - but don't we know the Braves? Not a great hitting team and 4-1 ain't that easy to rally for them mostly.

+

Bitchy gives up hits.

[God1]

I would say Hudson is still by far their most dependable pitcher. Hudson 3.4 WAR to Beachy's 2.4.

Probably right. Hudson has started more games that would make sense

The Braves strength has been pitching all season...that's why you didn't want to play them in a 3 game series. I'm not so sure that's the case right now. All of the starters have question marks right now, but the staff remains one of the best in MLB.

It's pretty remarkable how good their pitching is yet it is still a full tier below what the phillies have. Giants have better than the Braves and Brewers are pretty close if not equal I think

[Allure]

Yeah.. right.

[No coincidences]

And that is why they call me god. Beat EVERY closer sometimes I even amaze myself

And yet, what kind of results did it yield? O's get bombed, you're about to lose a -175 with the Braves, lucky push on the MIL/CIN game (though that wouldn't have been your fault), and CLE/MIN under hanging by a thread.

[Love The Action]

Fuking coksucker Twins bullpen...Pavano blanks the Indians through 7 innings and the Twins bullpen gives up 6 fuking runs to fuk Pavano and our under. Scumbag azzholes...

[God1]

And yet, what kind of results did it yield? O's get bombed, you're about to lose a -175 with the Braves, lucky push on the MIL/CIN game (though that wouldn't have been your fault), and CLE/MIN under hanging by a thread.

I won before the games even started kid. The outcome is just variance. That orioles bet was one of the best i've made recently, I beat the true close by 20 cents

[No coincidences]

I won before the games even started kid. The outcome is just variance

Keep telling yourself that.

"That's why they call me god."

[No coincidences]

Braves still might've had value at the -184 close.

I'm still laughing at this one.

Braves had value at -184.

[Allure]

Guy is sharp.

[God1]

Keep telling yourself that.

"That's why they call me god."

You just don't get it bud

[Redscot]

I won before the games even started kid. The outcome is just variance. That orioles bet was one of the best i've made recently, I beat the true close by 20 cents

This is true, BUT, God would of had a hand in the outcomes my mere mortal friend.

[God1]

I'm still laughing at this one.

Braves had value at -184.

They shouldve been -195

[No coincidences]

You just don't get it bud

Don't get what? You were "feeling generous" about sharing your plays, you said "that's why they call me god" when you beat the closing numbers on every play, then you got buried.

You either win a bet or lose a bet. That is the bottom line. As far as I can tell, you won with Tampa (maybe), pushed with your big total, lost huge on the O's when they got killed, lost huge on the Braves because of the chalk, lost on the CLE/MIN under, and you have Texas pending. We're supposed to feel graced by your presence over that? Oh I forgot: I'm simply cornering you on "isolated" plays, the way I always seem to do. That's always your response.

I'm sorry, but judging by what you post vs. LTA, he's a better capper. Period. Plus, he has the guts to keep track of his plays here. You can say "I'm not divulging my secrets" all you want, but I still think you're just being cryptic because you're worried days like today would be just as common as it is for everyone else and "we" couldn't call you "god" anymore.

[No coincidences]

I won before the games even started kid. The outcome is just variance. That orioles bet was one of the best i've made recently, I beat the true close by 20 cents

You got set up on that play by the books. Period.

[Allure]

Don't get what? You were "feeling generous" about sharing your plays, you said "that's why they call me god" when you beat the closing numbers on every play, then you got buried.

You either win a bet or lose a bet. That is the bottom line. As far as I can tell, you won with Tampa (maybe), pushed with your big total, lost huge on the O's when they got killed, lost huge on the Braves because of the chalk, lost on the CLE/MIN under, and you have Texas pending. We're supposed to feel graced by your presence over that? Oh I forgot: I'm simply cornering you on "isolated" plays, the way I always seem to do. That's always your response.

I'm sorry, but judging by what you post vs. LTA, he's a better capper. Period. Plus, he has the guts to keep track of his plays here. You can say "I'm not divulging my secrets" all you want, but I still think you're just being cryptic because you're worried days like today would be just as common as it is for everyone else and "we" couldn't call you "god" anymore.

Guy doesn't even know what value is. I played the Braves as well (RL), but I knew it was square & dumb and don't claim it to have value.
A team that lost 7-5 shoulda been -195? Come on, gtfu.