LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Im in a charitable mood heres what booked so far....rays -132 braves -175 orioles +184(huge) reds under 9 -110(huge) twins under 8.5 +104 rangers +105

Post all your plays in here or another thread from now until the rest of the season....it'll give you a platform to track your plays and stir up some discussion.

Or, if you don't want to give away all your "secrets," post them right after the game starts.

I'm already on the Rays -132 as well. Will probably be on the Mil under...working on that one now.

I disagree with your Braves play. They are too expensive in that spot with Beachy possibly regressing a bit. Also disagree with your Balty and Texas plays, but wish you luck.

[italianbandit]

Nice night for all.
Thanks again LTA.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap

9/16/11

1 - 1 = -0.2x

9/17/11

3 - 1 - 1 = +2x

MLB Season 2011

391 - 358 = +24.365x

Gearing up for a big Sunday of MLB and NFL action!

[Love The Action]

Nice night for all.
Thanks again LTA.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked)

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I will probably lock in the Minny/Cle under tomorrow when my squarer book opens MLB lines. Right now, I can only get -120 under 8.5...

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked)

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[God1]

added at reds under-107(above the normal per game limit) and the braves -175 is now in the "huge" category

[Redscot]

Im in a charitable mood heres what booked so far....rays -132 braves -175 orioles +184(huge) reds under 9 -110(huge) twins under 8.5 +104 rangers +105

GL G1. Unfortunately my local has the first three priced at least 10 cents over your prices. The 2 unders and Rangers play are in my wheelhouse though.

[Redscot]

MLB Recap

9/16/11

1 - 1 = -0.2x

9/17/11

3 - 1 - 1 = +2x

MLB Season 2011

391 - 358 = +24.365x

Gearing up for a big Sunday of MLB and NFL action!

Pushing forward my man, should be a good day today NFL and MLB, lets get them greenbacks

[Cap dat 4ss]

LTA, just wanna drop in and say thx pal. I was needing some MLB action over the last couple of days and decided after reading your analysis to blindly tail you on two plays. And they went 2-0 Thanks again LTA.

[gshock1]

Good luck LTA. I have the over in the rays game.

[Redscot]

LTA & G1 got a question for ya. Do you have a cut off point for juice you will not pay? I had an instance this week where I could have beat the closing "non-juiced" Pinny line by 10 cents but didn't play it because it was in the -200 range. Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

LTA, just wanna drop in and say thx pal. I was needing some MLB action over the last couple of days and decided after reading your analysis to blindly tail you on two plays. And they went 2-0 Thanks again LTA.

[pacocn]

Lta, great day yesterday i was outta town
and i return and you are on fire. Keep it going
lets go big Sunday

[Love The Action]

Punchers chance. Mayweather, albeit a dick is one of the games true masters. He was born in the ring, has all the angles, all the tricks. BUT, he is getting older and hasn't fought in over a year...Ortiz can't carry his jockstrap skill wise, but he is young/dumb and full of well...anyway...he has a chance of physically imposing himself. The way the ref handles Floyd's defense (he uses his shoulder and elbow to fend off) could be a factor. Most likely you will see Ortiz seemingly overwhelm Floyd for a few rounds mauling (although in replay you will see few flush shots really land) and then Floyd will start to pot shot him and break him down.

Most likely scenario, but the fight game is full of surprises


AS a side, Ortiz reportedly will have about a 15 lb weight advantage tonight.

As I said earlier, nice call.

It sounds like you are pretty serious about boxing and play it as an investment. Because it's your "first" sport, how often do you wager in Boxing? What about MMA?

I'm always interested in tailing someone that can make me money in a new market.

Finally, if the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight ever happened, who would win, how and why?

Thanks!

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA. I have the over in the rays game.

Good luck

[Love The Action]

Lta, great day yesterday i was outta town
and i return and you are on fire. Keep it going
lets go big Sunday

The bullpens seem to be doing their jobs lately so that's always nice. Good luck today Paco

[Love The Action]

GL G1. Unfortunately my local has the first three priced at least 10 cents over your prices. The 2 unders and Rangers play are in my wheelhouse though.

I'm actually starting to heat up to the Rangers play a little more than I did last night. But I don't think enough to play it...hard to find an edge whenever you bet against a pitcher like King Felix that can shut even the best offenses down. Plus, the Rangers have had some trouble with FH in the past, especially Hamilton and Kinsler....

[Love The Action]

LTA & G1 got a question for ya. Do you have a cut off point for juice you will not pay? I had an instance this week where I could have beat the closing "non-juiced" Pinny line by 10 cents but didn't play it because it was in the -200 range. Thoughts?

I generally believe that you should play every game that you find an edge. Therefore, if you believe you have an edge on -200 fave, you should probably play it. As a crude example, if you have a game capped at -260 and the market is at -200, you should probably play it because you believe that game will win at a much higher rate than the market price indicates. This assumes you are consistent and accurate with your capping/pricing/process/model/whatever.

However, you should also set limits in that, even if you "love" a play, you should not overpay for it to such an extent that it's no longer a profitable wager. For example, if you loved the Mil/Reds under, but it went down from 9, to 8, that can no longer be played because there is no longer any value remaining. Same with moneylines.

In practice, I generally do not play anything over -150 ish because I do not believe the benefit outweighs the risk, especially when it comes to baseball. In my opinion, there are too many variables at play when you get to that much risk and there are better options out there with less risk. As you know, the higher the juice you play, the higher your win rate must go to be profitable.

Nevertheless, for me, it's like anything else and you have to pick your spots. If I found a -200 fave that I felts was massively undervalued, I like to think I would pull the trigger.

[Redscot]

As I said earlier, nice call.

It sounds like you are pretty serious about boxing and play it as an investment. Because it's your "first" sport, how often do you wager in Boxing? What about MMA?

I'm always interested in tailing someone that can make me money in a new market.

Finally, if the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight ever happened, who would win, how and why?

Thanks!

Boxing is my first love. I have thousands of fights on tape all the way back to Jack Johnson. I even covered it for a while for a web site when I was living in the States. Anyway I wager it heavy because my local allows me to parlay. For instance last night:

Parlay Mayweather decision
Fight lasts more than 11.5 rds 5 units paying 8.1 units

Parlay Mayweather KO
Fight lasts less that 11.5 rds 7 units paying 39.2 units

Parlay Ortiz KO
Fight lasts less than 11.5 rds 1 unit paying 19.4 units

So I won the 2nd parlay 39.2 - the other two 6 total of 33.2 units!

Ortiz decision would have buried me, but i had that as a very remote possibility, although one never knows, a cut and early stoppage goes to the judges etc.

How my local allows me to parlay the fight distance with the outcome is a mystery to me. He only posts the big fights and I routinely take him to the cleaners.

Love MMA too, but just as a spectator, don't get lines with my local

Now the juicy one. If this fight took place 3-4 years ago I would confidently tell you that Mayweather would take the decision over Paq. As it stands today, Paq has grown into his body nicely and is quite formidable physically. Without going into too much detail (I'll save that for if it does happen) I think we would see both guys hit the canvas at some point, and Floyd would probably win a controversial decision based on putting early rounds in the bank, and finish off holding on for dear life.

[Love The Action]

Boxing is my first love. I have thousands of fights on tape all the way back to Jack Johnson. I even covered it for a while for a web site when I was living in the States. Anyway I wager it heavy because my local allows me to parlay. For instance last night:

Parlay Mayweather decision
Fight lasts more than 11.5 rds 5 units paying 8.1 units

Parlay Mayweather KO
Fight lasts less that 11.5 rds 7 units paying 39.2 units

Parlay Ortiz KO
Fight lasts less than 11.5 rds 1 unit paying 19.4 units

So I won the 2nd parlay 39.2 - the other two 6 total of 33.2 units!

Ortiz decision would have buried me, but i had that as a very remote possibility, although one never knows, a cut and early stoppage goes to the judges etc.

How my local allows me to parlay the fight distance with the outcome is a mystery to me. He only posts the big fights and I routinely take him to the cleaners.

Love MMA too, but just as a spectator, don't get lines with my local

Now the juicy one. If this fight took place 3-4 years ago I would confidently tell you that Mayweather would take the decision over Paq. As it stands today, Paq has grown into his body nicely and is quite formidable physically. Without going into too much detail (I'll save that for if it does happen) I think we would see both guys hit the canvas at some point, and Floyd would probably win a controversial decision based on putting early rounds in the bank, and finish off holding on for dear life.

That's awesome...congrats!!!

Looking forward to tailing your Boxing plays

[pacocn]

Lta looks like you substantially beat all the
closers in your nfl picks when do u usually post
your nfl plays?

[Redscot]

That's awesome...congrats!!!

Looking forward to tailing your Boxing plays

Thanks my man . Looking forward to a big day today

[Redscot]

Boston lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
2. Mike Aviles (R) 3B
3. Adrian Gonzalez (L) 1B
4. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
5. David Ortiz (L) DH
6. Conor Jackson (R) LF
7. Darnell McDonald (R) RF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C
9. Marco Scutaro (R) SS

[Luv2Play2]

as the season comes to an end !! id like to take time to thank all of you for getting me back on the + side.. bol always L2P2

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked)

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

This is my biggest play since we cashed with the 4x Cards/Brewers under with Carpenter and Greinke pitching. Today, we have Carpenter and Hamels taking the mound. If this wasn't Sunday, I would give you a huge writeup, however, I have NFL and MLB action to cap. Needless to say, both guys have great advanced stats and both have found great success against these lineups. We have the ESPN Sunday Night game trend and the wind should be blowing straight in from center at 10mph or more. The ump is Darling who is one of the long time best under umps. Both pitchers will be geared up for this one and I expect a classic pitchers dual with the Cardinals fighting to stay in the wild card chase. My model has this one at 6 even and I'm rolling with the under for 5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/18/11

Play #1

Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked)

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)

This is my biggest play since we cashed with the 4x Cards/Brewers under with Carpenter and Greinke pitching. Today, we have Carpenter and Hamels taking the mound. If this wasn't Sunday, I would give you a huge writeup, however, I have NFL and MLB action to cap. Needless to say, both guys have great advanced stats and both have found great success against these lineups. We have the ESPN Sunday Night game trend and the wind should be blowing straight in from center at 10mph or more. The ump is Darling who is one of the long time best under umps. Both pitchers will be geared up for this one and I expect a classic pitchers dual with the Cardinals fighting to stay in the wild card chase. My model has this one at 6 even and I'm rolling with the under for 5x. Good luck.

Play #5

Astros/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I have to play this one despite the weather concerns. I have it at 7.5 flat, so I'm getting 1.5 runs of value despite a possible wind that shifts from across the field to out to left. The wind is blowing at about 12 mph from right to left, with about 30% of rain. I'm risking that we don't see any weather delays that hurt our starters chance at returning. I like this pitching matchup with Myers and Dempster and this total is way too high because of the weather which might not even hit. Most of the market is still at 8.5, so I'm happy to pay the -120 for 9 and protect against a push with a final of 9. It's going to take a total of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening today. Both pitchers have fared well against these lineups in the past and I expect the same today. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Luv2Play2]

ohh my fucing balls!!! im tailing, and gl LTA

[Redscot]

ohh my fucing balls!!! im tailing, and gl LTA

LTA goin' strong today! Let's go boys, this is what separates the men from the mice.

[Love The Action]

ohh my fucing balls!!! im tailing, and gl LTA

LTA goin' strong today! Let's go boys, this is what separates the men from the mice.

It's pretty rare that I get a full run of variance between my model and opening number. Today, I have a full run in the Mil/Cincy under and Cards/Phils under, while more than that in the Astros/Cubs total (notwithstanding the aforementioned weather concerns). I generally go big once we get down to the playoff races and just about everything I look for in a big play under is present in the Cards/Phils game.

Today will be a huge turning point in the season one way or the other. Good luck today gentlemen

[Love The Action]

Play #2

Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked)

This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2 to be cancelled. My locals just pulled the line for this game and one of them posted new pitchers with no line provided. Apparently, Willis has been pulled for Matt Maloney. If this ends up being the case, my bet will be cancelled.

[Redscot]

Maloney in for Willis in Cincy, see you already are on it. My bet will stand for better or worse, my local's bets are action.

[No coincidences]

Good luck LTA! Big card!