LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

I would agree on the Blue Jays and Cubs. However, I don't think you'll see the Cubs going much over +138 and I think you should grab it tonight or tomorrow morning if you like it. I think you'll see a run on the Cubs by mid-morning. I have that one at +125 and that's where I expect it to close.

The Blue Jays are also interesting. However, I don't think there's a ton of value at the current number. I would like to see that one at +140 or more before taking it. Will it get there? That's the question. Morrow's advanced stats are impressive and Toronto knows how to hit Wakefield. I expect there to be a lot of money coming in from Boston schmucks blindly betting Wakefield's drive for 200. It's tough to bet against Boston at home, but if you can Morrow at +140 or more, then there's some value there. Wait it out and see what happens.

Morrow's advanced stats are a little misleading in that his ERA this and last year has been significantly higher than his xFIP and SIERA and approaching 300 innings we are getting to the sample size of his BABIP and LOB% numbers being more than an anomaly. He seems to be one of the very few that truly is worse pitching out of the stretch and it does make sense in that with none on he does a turn towards 2nd base which he can't do with runners on. With that said, I think wakefield is alot worse than his price.

I wouldn't touch the Astros even at +250. With that said, I will be interested to see who Philly puts in their lineup for the game.

I would put the farm on astros +250

Not so sure I would back Billingsley over Kennedy. Billingsley has turned unreliable at best. His stats have steadily declined.

billingsley is unreliable and kennedy is stud. doesn't mean that there isn't a right price, I believe its +115

[Love The Action]

Morrow's advanced stats are a little misleading in that his ERA this and last year has been significantly higher than his xFIP and SIERA and approaching 300 innings we are getting to the sample size of his BABIP and LOB% numbers being more than an anomaly. He seems to be one of the very few that truly is worse pitching out of the stretch and it does make sense in that with none on he does a turn towards 2nd base which he can't do with runners on. With that said, I think wakefield is alot worse than his price.

The jury is still out. He has seen a positive regression in his BABIP, but a reduction in his strand rate which is the ultimate cause for this problems this year. Plus, a lot of his ERA problems can be attributed to a few various horrendous outtings where he gave up 6+. Nevertheless, with his rare ability to strike guys out at such a high rate, I think he remains a candidate for a positive move in his ERA at some point. Compare early Verlander to this Morrow and they are not that far apart. I agree, however, that a play on the Blue Jays is more a fade of Wakefield than play on Morrow.

I would put the farm on astros +250

Good luck. No reason to fade Hamels in this spot. You will probably see +235. That should be worth 3/4 of the farm at least. I just don't see enough value to bet against a top 10 MLB guy at this point. Give me +275 and then you would peak my interest.

billingsley is unreliable and kennedy is stud. doesn't mean that there isn't a right price, I believe its +115

I am probably playing Kennedy. I think there's more value on Kennedy at anything under -120 (I'm going to get -117 probably) than there is on Billingsley at +115. I have Kennedy at -126, but I think you will be able to get Billingsley at +120 before it's said and done.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/13/11

Play #1

Diamondbacks ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

As discussed above, I think there's solid value on the D-backs at this number. I have Kennedy at -126, so we're at least getting nine cents in value. With that said, I think this one will close around -130 and you need to get on this one early if you like it. The Dodgers are hot but the D-Backs are hotter with something to play for besides pride. Billingsley is a guy who has made me money of the years, but this season has not been his best. Kennedy dominates Billingsley across the board in advanced stats by a considerable margin (e.g. WAR 4.2 to 2.1, SIERA 3.3 to 4.04, K% 22% to 19%, etc.). The Diamondbacks have the better offense and are top in the league in fielding compared to the Dodgers coming in at 11. Better pitcher, better hitter, more to play for and a solid price that will beat the closer. There's no doubt this will be a public play, but the public has been killing it lately (even in football -- books got KILLED on Pats). I'm rolling with the Diamondbacks for 1x. Good luck .

Play #2

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I don't think this one sniffs 6.5 anywhere and expect a closer around 6 (-110) on the under or more. Therefore, I'm locking this one in now at even odds and save what I believe will be at least ten cents. I expect the bets to come in on the over at about a 58/42 split, but the juice to slowly but surely shift to the under. Cain always has the ability to throw a shutout every time he takes the mound, especially against a team where he has solid stats, if not winning results. At any rate, I expect this one to be close. Luebke will tow the rubber for the Padres and force Beltran and the Big Panda to move to the right side of the plate. I think that gives Luebke the advantage with his slider and change which make life a bit tough for the right handed hitters. The Giants as a team are weak against lefties and that's not going to help them against Luebke. The ump is Bellino with a strike rate over 63% a career lean slightly to the under. The wind is expect to be blowing out to left field, but only at 5 mph so that's not really a concern. I have this one at 5.15 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #3

Nationals/Mets over (8) 1x (Locked)

My model has this one 9 even, so I like the variance here even though I'm not very fond of overs. Just a fade of these starting pitchers if nothing else. You have one guy in Chang with a WAR of 0 and another guy in Gee with a WAR of 0.2, so needless to say, these guys are not make it or break it guys for these teams. Neither are as bad as people make them out to be and I can find positives in each. However, when they face off in the same game, I expect a high scoring affair. The ump is Bucknor with a long time over lean and runs/game average around 9. The wind is expected to be blowing out at around 13 mph. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Early Leans:

Blue Jays ML
Cubs ML
Cubs/Reds under (only at 9, which means heavy juice as of right now)
LAA/Oak over
NYY/Sea over

[Love The Action]

Just as we predicted, the nats/mets total is up to 8.5 and the dback ml all the way up to -134. The sd/sf total has started coming down a bit as well. Looking good. Perhaps a few more to come...

Just posted four early nfl plays as well http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11409739

Good luck!

[God1]

great call on the cubs movement, the market just keeps on failing to catch up to my opinion of leake. I think there might be some value at -136. grabbed the dodgers at +122

waiting for a little more movement to take the jays and it looks like I missed the boat on the padres

edit: full bet on reds -134

[815Sox]

great call on the cubs movement, the market just keeps on failing to catch up to my opinion of leake. I think there might be some value at -136. grabbed the dodgers at +122

waiting for a little more movement to take the jays and it looks like I missed the boat on the padres

edit: full bet on reds -134

Leake has been very good, he has a great WHIP.

[Redscot]

On the Nats over with ya LTA, unfortunately Zona too pricey here to justify the play. Will most likely join you on the late under as well.

Not on the Reds side but did get the total under 9 this am. GL gents

[Love The Action]

great call on the cubs movement, the market just keeps on failing to catch up to my opinion of leake. I think there might be some value at -136. grabbed the dodgers at +122

waiting for a little more movement to take the jays and it looks like I missed the boat on the padres

edit: full bet on reds -134

I like Leake a lot because he's been undervalued all year. However, I don't like him tonight against a better pitcher and comparable lineup. If you could have gotten Leake at -125, that would be worth it but not at -134. In my opinion, the better play in this game was the juiced up under 9. Nevertheless, you could easily cash if its close once the bullpens take over.

I like toronto, but no play for me. The wind is blowing straight out into the pitchers face at 14mph. This wind action helps the knuckleball flutter instead of roll. I suspect wakefield pitches well tonight.

Good luck tonight. No astros?

[Love The Action]

On the Nats over with ya LTA, unfortunately Zona too pricey here to justify the play. Will most likely join you on the late under as well.

Not on the Reds side but did get the total under 9 this am. GL gents

Zona way too pricey now....

What did you pay for the cubs/reds under 9? I really liked that play but didnt want to pay -125 . I ended up waiting and the line dropped. Good play.

Good luck tonight Red

[Love The Action]

I really like Milwaukee -1.5RL, but it has not gone up in price despite the ML rising to -230 or more. That seems a bit odd....

[mtcook21]

This is odd:

9/13/11 10:10pm* MLB*Baseball* 963 Arizona Diamondbacks +1*-116* vs Los Angeles Dodgers* (I Kennedy - R must Start***C Billingsley - R must Start)

[Love The Action]

This is odd:

9/13/11 10:10pm* MLB*Baseball* 963 Arizona Diamondbacks +1*-116* vs Los Angeles Dodgers* (I Kennedy - R must Start***C Billingsley - R must Start)

That bet will get cancelled as an obviously bad line. That's a good way to get booted from 5d. No books like it when you bet into obvious mistakes....

[mtcook21]

Crap, I hope I don't get booted... You think I should call them?

[italianbandit]

Crap, I hope I don't get booted... You think I should call them?

It depends on how much you are playing. If its small, I wouldn't worry.

[Redscot]

Zona way too pricey now....

What did you pay for the cubs/reds under 9? I really liked that play but didnt want to pay -125 . I ended up waiting and the line dropped. Good play.

Good luck tonight Red

Thanks bud, you too

These are the rest I am on and the prices. Pretty juicy but got a 1/2 run on most.
Straight 958 AT Cincinnati Reds Under +9 -120

Straight 977 AT Los Angeles Angels Over +7½ EV

Straight 971 AT Cleveland Indians Over +8½ -120

Straight 969 AT Toronto Blue Jays Over +10 -110

Straight 967 AT Tampa Bay Rays Over +8 -110

Straight 955 AT Washington Nationals Over +8 -120

Straight 953 AT Florida Marlins Over +8 -110

Straight 977 AT Los Angeles Angels
+110

[Love The Action]

Crap, I hope I don't get booted... You think I should call them?

Nah...like bandit said, you would only get booted if they think you knowingly and purposefully trying to take advantage. If you always bet $100, but hit this one for $2000, you would be obvious about it. If you made your regular wager, there should not be a problem. Bol...

[mtcook21]

Thanks LTA and Bandit, it was my normal amount (which is rather small, so small that maybe they won't notice and it'll cash!)

[JR007]

The idea of a streaking team being more likely to win because they've won the previous game is ridiculous. It's a myth that has been prepetuated over and over again. Kind of like how people that there's such thing as a hot shooter in basketball. There was a study done that said the 9th shot a player took after taking 8 in a row was no more likely to go in. But it's one of those things that sports gamblers and the vast majority of fans will believe and defend vigorously even in the face of contrary evidence.

My liking the pirates is just a good spot where you get the confluence of home underdog, very small(i presume) public play, and superficially overrated pitcher from the opposing team. And Lincoln's advanced numbers are pretty good

then why would you bet against a hot or cold team, do not see any logic in that, explain why streaks exist, ???, any hypothesis on that ???

[Love The Action]

great call on the cubs movement, the market just keeps on failing to catch up to my opinion of leake. I think there might be some value at -136. grabbed the dodgers at +122

waiting for a little more movement to take the jays and it looks like I missed the boat on the padres

edit: full bet on reds -134

[Love The Action]

Thanks bud, you too

These are the rest I am on and the prices. Pretty juicy but got a 1/2 run on most.
Straight 958 AT Cincinnati Reds Under +9 -120

Straight 977 AT Los Angeles Angels Over +7½ EV

Straight 971 AT Cleveland Indians Over +8½ -120

Straight 969 AT Toronto Blue Jays Over +10 -110

Straight 967 AT Tampa Bay Rays Over +8 -110

Straight 955 AT Washington Nationals Over +8 -120

Straight 953 AT Florida Marlins Over +8 -110

Straight 977 AT Los Angeles Angels
+110

[Love The Action]

Natties/Mets game currently 3-2 in the 8th inning. How many unders have we lost in this exact scenario, where the bullpen blows in the final two innings...it sure would be nice to win one like that. The gambling gods do owe us quite a few....

[italianbandit]

then why would you bet against a hot or cold team, do not see any logic in that, explain why streaks exist, ???, any hypothesis on that ???

He's not betting against the streak, he is betting against the public, because he thinks they are overvaluing the team on a streak.

I've been having some interesting conversations about this topic with my friend Jonah a horse player and actually I'll just let him respond as he is right here. He says: "Unlike separate rolls of the dice, which are completely independent events, the result of one baseball game may have an influence on subsequent games. A handicapper may interpret the events of the first game to determine whether the winning team has an advantage that they may sustain, for instance. Similarly, the handicapper may feel that there could be a psychological advantage to the winning team. Really, these effects would best be shown through historical statistical data, but waiting for that data often also means losing any edge. The term "streak" is probably misleading, because it implies luck, which has nothing to do with it. The point is that consecutive games are not purely independent events. Quantifying the effects of one game on another is another story, and it's probably true that streaks are overemphasized rather than the reverse."

[italianbandit]

Nice call on the Reds and under tonight gentlemen. Good luck on that Mets under LTA.

[Love The Action]

Nice call on the Reds and under tonight gentlemen. Good luck on that Mets under LTA.

Haha, actually on the over but wish I was on the under right about now...

[Redscot]

He's not betting against the streak, he is betting against the public, because he thinks they are overvaluing the team on a streak.

I've been having some interesting conversations about this topic with my friend Jonah a horse player and actually I'll just let him respond as he is right here. He says: "Unlike separate rolls of the dice, which are completely independent events, the result of one baseball game may have an influence on subsequent games. A handicapper may interpret the events of the first game to determine whether the winning team has an advantage that they may sustain, for instance. Similarly, the handicapper may feel that there could be a psychological advantage to the winning team. Really, these effects would best be shown through historical statistical data, but waiting for that data often also means losing any edge. The term "streak" is probably misleading, because it implies luck, which has nothing to do with it. The point is that consecutive games are not purely independent events. Quantifying the effects of one game on another is another story, and it's probably true that streaks are overemphasized rather than the reverse."

Very true . But one cannot throw the baby out with the bath water either and look at everything in a test tube. Games are played by humans and there is a psychological element involved. It is an area I honestly think is one of the hardest to quantify, especially by number crunchers. Anyone who has been around sports knows the feel of a locker room or an individual before a big fight has an influence on the outcome. Definitely an interesting topic........

[italianbandit]

Haha, actually on the over but wish I was on the under right about now...

Sorry I misread it, maybe it will be a reverse jinx for ya.

[Redscot]

Joined you on the late night under my man , lets get it. Reyes with a hit, come on Mets lets get this over going. Keep hope alive!

[Redscot]

Well, 'bout to hit the hay, on the Padres and Dodgers small and the Angels medium, but in the event that fails I got the lotto ticket hope.... I play one daily. Gl all on the late games

5Parlay

966 AT San Francisco Giants
-1½ +145

9/13/2011 10:15:00 PM 970 AT Boston Red Sox
-1½ +130

9/13/2011 7:10:00 PM 972 AT Texas Rangers
-1½ +120

9/13/2011 8:05:00 PM 976 AT Kansas City Royals
-1½ +145

9/13/2011 8:10:00 PM 978 AT Oakland Athletics
-1½ +180

9/13/2011 10:05:00 PM 100/8404 # 60938

[fitguy67]

appreciatively lurking and playing along...fascinating (and troll-free) stuff here

[815Sox]

Would be nice if the Snakes pull through and the Angels hang on. Really surprised with Milwaukee not hitting the run line tonight. They have been so good at home and Milwaukee is baseball nuts right now. Miller Park has to be very intimidating right now.

[Pick'nParlays]

2 of 3 nice day LTA

[God1]

I like Leake a lot because he's been undervalued all year. However, I don't like him tonight against a better pitcher and comparable lineup. If you could have gotten Leake at -125, that would be worth it but not at -134. In my opinion, the better play in this game was the juiced up under 9. Nevertheless, you could easily cash if its close once the bullpens take over.

I like toronto, but no play for me. The wind is blowing straight out into the pitchers face at 14mph. This wind action helps the knuckleball flutter instead of roll. I suspect wakefield pitches well tonight.

Good luck tonight. No astros?

Had the astros and the under fortunately. Also was with you on the padres under but I didn't book it until +107 and I wasn't going to bet it if it didn't get there, and then there was a huge move to close at something like -103 which I did not expect.

rolling with the astros and the under again but only booking the under for now at 7 +104.

[Redscot]

MLB 9/13/11

Play #1

Diamondbacks ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

As discussed above, I think there's solid value on the D-backs at this number. I have Kennedy at -126, so we're at least getting nine cents in value. With that said, I think this one will close around -130 and you need to get on this one early if you like it. The Dodgers are hot but the D-Backs are hotter with something to play for besides pride. Billingsley is a guy who has made me money of the years, but this season has not been his best. Kennedy dominates Billingsley across the board in advanced stats by a considerable margin (e.g. WAR 4.2 to 2.1, SIERA 3.3 to 4.04, K% 22% to 19%, etc.). The Diamondbacks have the better offense and are top in the league in fielding compared to the Dodgers coming in at 11. Better pitcher, better hitter, more to play for and a solid price that will beat the closer. There's no doubt this will be a public play, but the public has been killing it lately (even in football -- books got KILLED on Pats). I'm rolling with the Diamondbacks for 1x. Good luck .

Play #2

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I don't think this one sniffs 6.5 anywhere and expect a closer around 6 (-110) on the under or more. Therefore, I'm locking this one in now at even odds and save what I believe will be at least ten cents. I expect the bets to come in on the over at about a 58/42 split, but the juice to slowly but surely shift to the under. Cain always has the ability to throw a shutout every time he takes the mound, especially against a team where he has solid stats, if not winning results. At any rate, I expect this one to be close. Luebke will tow the rubber for the Padres and force Beltran and the Big Panda to move to the right side of the plate. I think that gives Luebke the advantage with his slider and change which make life a bit tough for the right handed hitters. The Giants as a team are weak against lefties and that's not going to help them against Luebke. The ump is Bellino with a strike rate over 63% a career lean slightly to the under. The wind is expect to be blowing out to left field, but only at 5 mph so that's not really a concern. I have this one at 5.15 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #3

Nationals/Mets over (8) 1x (Locked)

My model has this one 9 even, so I like the variance here even though I'm not very fond of overs. Just a fade of these starting pitchers if nothing else. You have one guy in Chang with a WAR of 0 and another guy in Gee with a WAR of 0.2, so needless to say, these guys are not make it or break it guys for these teams. Neither are as bad as people make them out to be and I can find positives in each. However, when they face off in the same game, I expect a high scoring affair. The ump is Bucknor with a long time over lean and runs/game average around 9. The wind is expected to be blowing out at around 13 mph. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Early Leans:

Blue Jays ML
Cubs ML
Cubs/Reds under (only at 9, which means heavy juice as of right now)
LAA/Oak over
NYY/Sea over

Nice night my man. Mets over was the play I felt the strongest about , shows how sharp I am . Still, got the nice under late with ya. Keeping it going bro, I feel a hot streak .

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/14/11

Play #1

AZ/LAD under (6)(-115) 1x Locked)

Sorry, no time for wtiteups. Locked this one in last night, but fell asleep on the couch before I could post. Kershaw wants the win and Hudson is pitching his best right now. Both have great advanced stats and both will be motivated for this game because Kershaw wants the cy young and Hudson wants the playoffs and to make cy young contention. Both pitchers have performed great against these lineups and the weather should not factor into this one with only a light breeze expected. Bill (not Tim) Welke is the ump and he us relatively neutral as to totals this year, but with a slight under lean. I expect a low scoring affair in this one and I'm rolking under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'll get the record updated tonight. Running late for work right now. Good luck to everyone today!