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I'm looking at the Braves/St. Louis game under. However, both pitchers have gotten killed by these lineups in the past, especially by all the stud hitters. What does everyone think about this one...over or under?Last edited by Love The Action; 09-11-11, 09:10 AM.Comment -
Lta has the Twins at a price come up on your screen at
all today. Fister has been great, but -244, he has never
beaten the twins.Comment -
Fister should only be about -225 or under...even at this time of the year. However, I'm not taking a shot with Diamond. Good luck if you go for it! However, it's hard to bet against Detroit right now.
I also lean to Cleveland and SF, but all the value has been sucked out of Cleveland and I like the under in that SF game better than the side. GL!
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I have a pretty strong lean for the Indians.
However, I missed out on over 10 cents of value on the line movement, plus their lineup looks like horseshit today. I expect the Indians to win, but I just can't bet them with such a weak lineup.Comment -
Lta, it was do or die for our under at the trop,
2 outs, Matt Albers vs. Justin Upton, i didn't like
the match up, and i detested the results.
bases juicedComment -
That one was lost by Lester...just a pathetic performance by him giving up 3 in the first inning.
Really loving my play on the Cubbies tonight...might add another unit since we're still getting solid value in the -120 range. This is a huge mismatch in starting pitchers.Comment -
wtf bumgarner lifted after 5 innings
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im on the cubbies too.
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I'm on the Cubbies as well fella's, and like the play. Just checked the Cubs lineup and it is hardly murder's row tonight. Pitching edge should carry the day....GL
Keep in mind the large emotional component as well tonight as they will be honoring the 9/11 victims and the game played by the Mets 10 years ago in the wake of the tragedy.Last edited by Redscot; 09-11-11, 05:47 PM.Comment -
Yeah, you're right. I can't add a unit with that shit lineup.I'm on the Cubbies as well fella's, and like the play. Just checked the Cubs lineup and it is hardly murder's row tonight. Pitching edge should carry the day....GL
Keep in mind the large emotional component as well tonight as they will be honoring the 9/11 victims and the game played by the Mets 10 years ago in the wake of the tragedy.
I really needed that LAD/SF under. Bullpen blew that fuker....turned out to a bad call as both starters got lifted early in the game and the LAD bullpen got lit up. That sucks.Comment -
Kuo killed us walked the 1st two batters.Comment -
Like the white sox, pirates, and dodgers tomorrow. Only line I think worth grabbing now is dodgers -118. Should be interesting to see where the money falls on the yankees gameComment -
Nice call on the Cubs LTA, interesting game. Also thanks for keeping this thread alive, intelligent and positive.
Thanks for the insight God1, can you expand a bit on the pirates, I see the value, but often stay away from streaking teams. I also am looking forward to watching that yankee line ripen a bit on the vine.Comment -
The idea of a streaking team being more likely to win because they've won the previous game is ridiculous. It's a myth that has been prepetuated over and over again. Kind of like how people that there's such thing as a hot shooter in basketball. There was a study done that said the 9th shot a player took after taking 8 in a row was no more likely to go in. But it's one of those things that sports gamblers and the vast majority of fans will believe and defend vigorously even in the face of contrary evidence.
My liking the pirates is just a good spot where you get the confluence of home underdog, very small(i presume) public play, and superficially overrated pitcher from the opposing team. And Lincoln's advanced numbers are pretty goodComment -
Thanks G1, streaks are an interesting phenomena. I agree they are given too much weight. I'm going to keep my eye out for more studies and articles on it.Comment -
Hey guys, what site is the best for finding public betting percentages? Ur response is greatly appreciated! BolComment -
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Thx figueComment -
Good call on the Cubs LTA, and thank you Jason Bay for stranding the bases load with one out!
Been spending more time studying lines and understanding a few betting concepts this morning than capping to be honest. I did grab Tampa at -125 this morning, they have renewed hope and Niemann has been infinitely better than Britton 2nd half.
King Felix needs a good look against Hughes and the Yanks a brutal stretch with no rest.
Mets
, WSox and Pads also are leans for me at the moment. Looking forward to your thoughts my man.
Oak over is awfully tempting too......Last edited by Redscot; 09-12-11, 01:34 PM.Comment -
With u on tampa redscot, i got it at -129, already up to -140! Bol !Comment -
Good call on the Cubs LTA, and thank you Jason Bay for stranding the bases load with one out!
Been spending more time studying lines and understanding a few betting concepts this morning than capping to be honest. I did grab Tampa at -125 this morning, they have renewed hope and Niemann has been infinitely better than Britton 2nd half.
King Felix needs a good look against Hughes and the Yanks a brutal stretch with no rest.
Mets, WSox and Pads also are leans for me at the moment. Looking forward to your thoughts my man.
Oak over is awfully tempting too......
Really late getting to the games because of some family and work responsibilities.
I like felix, but we missed the line movement and all value is gone.
White Sox are a lean, but it doesnt make much sense to fade the tigers right now.
Padres are a solid lean...more work to be done on that one.
I like your tampa play, but that's tok expensive at the current price...you got a good one. I also have a strong lean on the under. Britton is baltys best pitcher, with solid advanced stats. I don't like thee early movement, but if you take away a few starts against the yanks and boston, his numbers look way better.
I also like the dodgers and marlins/braves under. Lots of work to do on this card. BOL
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I got smoked on this pirates game, got it at +124, definitely going to add at +137
agree about the mariners, I missed the boat on that oneComment -
Looking at the lineups and Britton's periph's I am liking that under too LTA, at 8 1/2 most places now, biggest concern would be how much pen Balt is gonna need tonight. Also intrigued by the Braves under, no Stanton in Fla. tonight and the lineup looks WEAK. Volstad's SIERA just made me do a double take
, GB dominant too.
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MLB 9/12/11
Play #1
TB/Bal under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
Play #2
FL/Atl under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)
In the first play, we have the whole world on the over driving this total up to 8.5 at very little juice. That provided us with enough value to make this a play. Note that only pinny, greek and mbook have stayed at 8....hmm, I wonder why. Perhaps, they don't want sharp under bettors to cash on a total of 8. If they feared the over, they would be at 8.5. Both pitchers are underrated wirh Britton the only solid pitcher Balty has and Niemann putting together a great second half until last two starts against texas. Both have solid advanced stats and histories against these lineups. Weather is not a factor.
In the second game, Florida has a banged up lineup that will have a tough time with Beachy. On the other side, Volstad has been underrated this season with solid advanced stats and has only given up more than 4 er's once in his last ten starts. All four of these teams had to travel last night and the bats may be a little heavy today. I am rolling with both unders for 1x each.
Still looking at the dodgers ml and padres ml. Good luck.Comment -
The friggin unders are so painful lately. Tailed tampa and atlanta!Comment -
big big bet on the under in the yanks game. with you on the dodgersComment -
Yeah...but at least we got the split.
You would think the books start providing a little more value on the under after getting killed on the overs over the last couple months. Plenty of time for unders with some late season matchups. I will start having more 3x+ plays as we get closer to some playoff race type games.Comment -
Blue jays and astros both look good tomorrow. I like the Cubs if they get over +140. I'm sure I'll wind up on the dodgers after that gets bet upComment -
I would agree on the Blue Jays and Cubs. However, I don't think you'll see the Cubs going much over +138 and I think you should grab it tonight or tomorrow morning if you like it. I think you'll see a run on the Cubs by mid-morning. I have that one at +125 and that's where I expect it to close.
The Blue Jays are also interesting. However, I don't think there's a ton of value at the current number. I would like to see that one at +140 or more before taking it. Will it get there? That's the question. Morrow's advanced stats are impressive and Toronto knows how to hit Wakefield. I expect there to be a lot of money coming in from Boston schmucks blindly betting Wakefield's drive for 200. It's tough to bet against Boston at home, but if you can Morrow at +140 or more, then there's some value there. Wait it out and see what happens.
I wouldn't touch the Astros even at +250. With that said, I will be interested to see who Philly puts in their lineup for the game.
Not so sure I would back Billingsley over Kennedy. Billingsley has turned unreliable at best. His stats have steadily declined. I have a strong lean on the D-backs.Last edited by Love The Action; 09-12-11, 10:48 PM.Comment
