LTA's MLB Plays

[No coincidences]

[pacocn]

Lta, nice call on that brew crew Under

[Love The Action]

Thanks guys

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/7/11

1 - 1 = +3x

MLB Season 2011

375 - 348 = +18.785x

[BennyFang]

Great call on the under!

Me, 4 one run losses......Seattle +1 (3-1), Red Sox (11-10), Houston (5-4), White Sox (5-4).....3 come from behind. wow....even my Braves had come from behind one run loss as you well know.

OK....gotta move on....BOL tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

Great call on the under!

Me, 4 one run losses......Seattle +1 (3-1), Red Sox (11-10), Houston (5-4), White Sox (5-4).....3 come from behind. wow....even my Braves had come from behind one run loss as you well know.

OK....gotta move on....BOL tomorrow.

Ouch...sorry Benny...bounceback Thursday!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/8/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-106) 1.5x (Locked)

We tried to back Vargas in his last start against Oakland and that was a big mistake. In this game, we'll roll with the fade. Hochevar has been pitching very solid lately and dominates Vargas in the advanced stats. In addition, we have an interesting history with the individual matchups. The KC lineup has fared well against Vargas led by Butler and the Seattle lineup has struggled agianst Hochevar hitting under .200 BAA and under .500 OPS combined. I also think Casper Wells will be out of the Seattle lineup. In addition, KC has been hitting lefties exceedingly well as the season progresses and especially in the last 20 games where they are hitting over .290. I think Vargas is on the fade list for the rest of the year and Hochevar is a starter to keep an eye on. I have the Royals at -115 in this and that's where I expect this game to close. I think KC has the clear advantage at starting pitching and hitting, so as long as the bullpen does its job, the Royals should win and will will cash our 1.5x ticket. Good luck.

[funnyman]

Like the Royals play.

[Redscot]

Like the Royal's play too.

Mil/Phil under 8 (heavy juice) intriguing too. Gotta figure this to be a bit of a statement series for two teams that look like they are on a collision course.

Zona under tempting but, Luebke may be hitting the wall a bit.

Gotta figure the books are counting on a Braves hangover from Phil's series with the pricing. Minor has been solid with good periph's and Schwinden is a smoke and mirrors guy in ML debut. On that note Mets 2nd game is Gee, another smoke and mirrors guy. If Mets somehow win game one gotta feel a Braves chase in game 2 would be the play.

Ugly card imo, may have interest in Wash game 2 depending on line.

Nice night last night LTA, looking forward to see what you will be playing

[1Time!]

Any early game plays/leans LTA that I can lock in before I go to bed here in Australia?! (in next 15min! Haha!)

[Love The Action]

Any early game plays/leans LTA that I can lock in before I go to bed here in Australia?! (in next 15min! Haha!)

The royals ml....see above. That's it for right now. Still working on the rest of the card. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Like the Royal's play too.

Mil/Phil under 8 (heavy juice) intriguing too. Gotta figure this to be a bit of a statement series for two teams that look like they are on a collision course.

Zona under tempting but, Luebke may be hitting the wall a bit.

Gotta figure the books are counting on a Braves hangover from Phil's series with the pricing. Minor has been solid with good periph's and Schwinden is a smoke and mirrors guy in ML debut. On that note Mets 2nd game is Gee, another smoke and mirrors guy. If Mets somehow win game one gotta feel a Braves chase in game 2 would be the play.

Ugly card imo, may have interest in Wash game 2 depending on line.

Nice night last night LTA, looking forward to see what you will be playing

Good looking leans

[1Time!]

The royals ml....see above. That's it for right now. Still working on the rest of the card. Good luck.

I'll be awake & up for that one! Cheers!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Detroit/Cleveland under (8.5)(-120) 2x or under (8)(-110) for 1x

My book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I woke up. During that time, the line moved from 8.5 to 8. I have a call into my local agent to see if he will honor the under 8.5 (-120) for 2x. Otherwise, I have reserved 1x at (8)(-110) at the same site once it went up. I am going to ask that he cancel that wager though and give me the 8.5. I suggest if you guys like this play and can still get the 8.5, you should jump on it. Still capping the whole card so no writeups. More plays to come. Good luck.

CANCELLED

Both of my bets were cancelled on this one because my local agent couldn't help me out with the 8.5 and then he informed me that the maintenance on the site this morning was due to them switching to a new online website. Therefore, the play I put in earlier at 8 was cancelled too. Because I have no money on this play, I am not counting it in the records win or lose. Not really happy about it because I really like this play, but shit happens and this local is generally very fair. Good luck for those on the under!

Got some good news today as my local agent called to say they will be honoring my 1x bet on the under 8 in this game because I locked it in at the old website before the switch the new site. That's awesome...I really need that positive unit right now. Because my record includes all official plays that I have money on and because I released it as a play, I am going to add it to the records. Updated record follows.

MLB Season 2011

376 - 348 = +19.785x

[Love The Action]

No play on the early games. Lean to the Dodgers and Billingsley in game 1 of the DH and to the Yanks/Balty under.

I am looking hard at Philly tonight. Getting Hamels at -124 range is always intriguing and worth a look.

I wish I would have jumped on the Braves early in the -120 range because -130+ is pretty tough to swallow.

I lean to the SD/AZ under, but my concern is whether the league and AZ has caught up to Luebke and made the necessary adjustments.

Looking at a few other MLB plays as well.

I'm also starting to get interested in the total in tonight's NFL game. I liked the over at any number over 44, but when you get to 48, then I start to think under. First game of the season and it's a big TV game will have the public pounding the over. If I can get 48.5, that might cinch it for me and I take the under for a small play. Just like college, I start off the NFL season conservatively. If I play the NFL game, I will get my NFL thread up. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/8/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-106) 1.5x (Locked)

We tried to back Vargas in his last start against Oakland and that was a big mistake. In this game, we'll roll with the fade. Hochevar has been pitching very solid lately and dominates Vargas in the advanced stats. In addition, we have an interesting history with the individual matchups. The KC lineup has fared well against Vargas led by Butler and the Seattle lineup has struggled agianst Hochevar hitting under .200 BAA and under .500 OPS combined. I also think Casper Wells will be out of the Seattle lineup. In addition, KC has been hitting lefties exceedingly well as the season progresses and especially in the last 20 games where they are hitting over .290. I think Vargas is on the fade list for the rest of the year and Hochevar is a starter to keep an eye on. I have the Royals at -115 in this and that's where I expect this game to close. I think KC has the clear advantage at starting pitching and hitting, so as long as the bullpen does its job, the Royals should win and will will cash our 1.5x ticket. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-109) 1x (Locked) (First Game of Doubleheader)

I wanted to see the lineups in this one before I placed my wager and in so doing I had to endure a 20 cent price increase on the Braves from -120 to -140 on the ML. Generally, I wouldn't bet after such a move, however, once I saw the lineups I just have to roll with the Braves here and I will risk the push because I think the Braves roll. Based on the two lineups, it's clear the Braves are serious about breaking their losing streak and winning this first game. Notice the Braves are bringing out the big guns to start the early game rather than rest anyone for the night game. That tells me they have some sense of urgency starting Bourn, Jones, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Prado, Heward, Gonzalez and Minor against Tejada, Turner, Duda, Wright, Pagan, Bay, Evans, Paulino and Schwinden. Minor should be ready to exact some revenge after his worst starts this year were against the Mets giving up 5 and 4 earned runs in those two starts. Against this lineup, I expect better. Minor is a guy who has performed well for the Braves this year and is highly regarded in the organization. On the other side, Schwinden is considered a "C" prospect who had a great first half of the season but has started to regress. It was actually surprising to most Mets analysts that Schwinden is getting this start as they thought it would go to a more highly regarded prospect. Generally, I like to stay away from rookies making their first start because the hitters are unfamiliar with that pitcher and that pitcher's "stuff." That usually gives the pitcher an advantage. However, I don't think Schwinden's new found cutter, which is apparently why he did have some early season success, will keep the Braves "A" lineup at bay today. I think the Braves are ready to break their losing streak and jump over Schwinden early. I trust Minor to keep the Mets to no more than 3 runs and Braves to coast to an easy win in the first game of the double header. I'm taking the Braves -1 RL for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

No play on the early games. Lean to the Dodgers and Billingsley in game 1 of the DH and to the Yanks/Balty under.

I am looking hard at Philly tonight. Getting Hamels at -124 range is always intriguing and worth a look.

I wish I would have jumped on the Braves early in the -120 range because -130+ is pretty tough to swallow.

I lean to the SD/AZ under, but my concern is whether the league and AZ has caught up to Luebke and made the necessary adjustments.

Looking at a few other MLB plays as well.

I'm also starting to get interested in the total in tonight's NFL game. I liked the over at any number over 44, but when you get to 48, then I start to think under. First game of the season and it's a big TV game will have the public pounding the under. If I can get 48.5, that might cinch it for me and I take the under for a small play. Just like college, I start off the NFL season conservatively. If I play the NFL game, I will get my NFL thread up. Good luck today.

1) Bills is a fat tub of lard.
2) The public's pounding the over in the NFL game.

[Love The Action]

1) Bills is a fat tub of lard.
2) The public's pounding the over in the NFL game.

Yeah, I don't know why Billinsley sucks so bad now. Glad I laid off.

I meant the public was pounding the over...typo. That's why I like the under. I can get 48, but if it goes above that, I will take the under for a small wager.

You playing any NFL or NCAAF tonight?

[BetGrinder]

gl with yor plays TBA!

[GGALLERT]

Is it me or is the day worng here? LTA bets show 9/7/11

[Love The Action]

Is it me or is the day worng here? LTA bets show 9/7/11

Shit...sorry...just a typo. Haven't been sleeping much

Fixed it...thanks!

[Redscot]

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-109) 1x (Locked) (First Game of Doubleheader)

I wanted to see the lineups in this one before I placed my wager and in so doing I had to endure a 20 cent price increase on the Braves from -120 to -140 on the ML. Generally, I wouldn't bet after such a move, however, once I saw the lineups I just have to roll with the Braves here and I will risk the push because I think the Braves roll. Based on the two lineups, it's clear the Braves are serious about breaking their losing streak and winning this first game. Notice the Braves are bringing out the big guns to start the early game rather than rest anyone for the night game. That tells me they have some sense of urgency starting Bourn, Jones, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Prado, Heward, Gonzalez and Minor against Tejada, Turner, Duda, Wright, Pagan, Bay, Evans, Paulino and Schwinden. Minor should be ready to exact some revenge after his worst starts this year were against the Mets giving up 5 and 4 earned runs in those two starts. Against this lineup, I expect better. Minor is a guy who has performed well for the Braves this year and is highly regarded in the organization. On the other side, Schwinden is considered a "C" prospect who had a great first half of the season but has started to regress. It was actually surprising to most Mets analysts that Schwinden is getting this start as they thought it would go to a more highly regarded prospect. Generally, I like to stay away from rookies making their first start because the hitters are unfamiliar with that pitcher and that pitcher's "stuff." That usually gives the pitcher an advantage. However, I don't think Schwinden's new found cutter, which is apparently why he did have some early season success, will keep the Braves "A" lineup at bay today. I think the Braves are ready to break their losing streak and jump over Schwinden early. I trust Minor to keep the Mets to no more than 3 runs and Braves to coast to an easy win in the first game of the double header. I'm taking the Braves -1 RL for 1x. Good luck.

As a Mets fan, you hit the nail on the head with Schwinden, could not agree more with your analysis. I knew Reyes would be getting one game off, being the first only strengthens the bet. I actually grabbed this one at -125 early this morning. Will be rooting for a 2+ run victory now . As a side, I also grabbed the 2nd game ev. Just a much better team that has the Mets number.

[Love The Action]

I just found about Utley and the concussion when I was looking into the Philly/Milwaukee game. I was leaning Philly ML but then looked at the injury report. Now I lean to the under instead. That explains the steam...man I was late on that one. The question is if it is a play at 7.5...I usually won't play a total after dropping a half run, especially when that half run takes away the chance for a push. Anyone have the ump info in that one?

[Redscot]

No play on the early games. Lean to the Dodgers and Billingsley in game 1 of the DH and to the Yanks/Balty under.

I am looking hard at Philly tonight. Getting Hamels at -124 range is always intriguing and worth a look.

I wish I would have jumped on the Braves early in the -120 range because -130+ is pretty tough to swallow.

I lean to the SD/AZ under, but my concern is whether the league and AZ has caught up to Luebke and made the necessary adjustments.

Looking at a few other MLB plays as well.

I'm also starting to get interested in the total in tonight's NFL game. I liked the over at any number over 44, but when you get to 48, then I start to think under. First game of the season and it's a big TV game will have the public pounding the over. If I can get 48.5, that might cinch it for me and I take the under for a small play. Just like college, I start off the NFL season conservatively. If I play the NFL game, I will get my NFL thread up. Good luck today.

LTA, I'm curious what your stance is on teaser's in football. For instance. N.O. + 10 1/2 under 54? Personally I lean G.B. but 10 1/2 is a very nice number.

For N.O. to win I think they will need to be able to establish the run early. G.B. can be inconsistent against the run and it greatly limits Mathews ability to freelance and wreck havoc on the passing game. If it gets in to a shootout, despite my respect for Brees I think it favors G.B.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I'm curious what your stance is on teaser's in football. For instance. N.O. + 10 1/2 under 54? Personally I lean G.B. but 10 1/2 is a very nice number.

For N.O. to win I think they will need to be able to establish the run early. G.B. can be inconsistent against the run and it greatly limits Mathews ability to freelance and wreck havoc on the passing game. If it gets in to a shootout, despite my respect for Brees I think it favors G.B.

I'm not a big fan of teasers. I don't make them for real money but will use them for "action" here and there. Remember, when you are looking at teasers, it's all about key numbers. Beating key numbers is crucial in NFL wagering.

Here are the key numbers for NFL:

Key sides: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 13, 17, 8, 21

Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38, 31, 29, 36, 52, 54, 50, 35, 57, 58

So these "key" numbers are the numbers that hit most often and if you can condition a teaser to beat those key numbers, you are giving yourself an edge. Generally, whether you are betting teasers or not, you always want to beat key numbers. For example if you like a 3 point favorite, you never bet them at -3.5 and if possible, you try to bet them at -2.5. This is because more games end with a 3 point difference than any other number. This is true for the total numbers I have posted above as well.

For tonight's game, I lean to the Saints ML and the under. I may make an action wager and parlay Saints ML and the under and then also bet the under for a half unit. That's what I am considering right now anyway. We'll see.

GL

[No coincidences]

Really like a Saints/under tease LTA.

You get to 10.5 and a total of 54 at -110. I'd take my chances with that one.

[No coincidences]

LTA, I'm curious what your stance is on teaser's in football. For instance. N.O. + 10 1/2 under 54? Personally I lean G.B. but 10 1/2 is a very nice number.

Just saw this post -- exactly.

[Redscot]

Really like a Saints/under tease LTA.

You get to 10.5 and a total of 54 at -110. I'd take my chances with that one.

Exactly passing the 10 threshold was what turned me on . LTA's detailed response was very enlightening too, thanks bro .

[Luv2Play2]

yes as always he's a class act.. ty LTA

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/8/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-106) 1.5x (Locked)

We tried to back Vargas in his last start against Oakland and that was a big mistake. In this game, we'll roll with the fade. Hochevar has been pitching very solid lately and dominates Vargas in the advanced stats. In addition, we have an interesting history with the individual matchups. The KC lineup has fared well against Vargas led by Butler and the Seattle lineup has struggled agianst Hochevar hitting under .200 BAA and under .500 OPS combined. I also think Casper Wells will be out of the Seattle lineup. In addition, KC has been hitting lefties exceedingly well as the season progresses and especially in the last 20 games where they are hitting over .290. I think Vargas is on the fade list for the rest of the year and Hochevar is a starter to keep an eye on. I have the Royals at -115 in this and that's where I expect this game to close. I think KC has the clear advantage at starting pitching and hitting, so as long as the bullpen does its job, the Royals should win and will will cash our 1.5x ticket. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves -1 RL (-109) 1x (Locked) (First Game of Doubleheader)

I wanted to see the lineups in this one before I placed my wager and in so doing I had to endure a 20 cent price increase on the Braves from -120 to -140 on the ML. Generally, I wouldn't bet after such a move, however, once I saw the lineups I just have to roll with the Braves here and I will risk the push because I think the Braves roll. Based on the two lineups, it's clear the Braves are serious about breaking their losing streak and winning this first game. Notice the Braves are bringing out the big guns to start the early game rather than rest anyone for the night game. That tells me they have some sense of urgency starting Bourn, Jones, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Prado, Heward, Gonzalez and Minor against Tejada, Turner, Duda, Wright, Pagan, Bay, Evans, Paulino and Schwinden. Minor should be ready to exact some revenge after his worst starts this year were against the Mets giving up 5 and 4 earned runs in those two starts. Against this lineup, I expect better. Minor is a guy who has performed well for the Braves this year and is highly regarded in the organization. On the other side, Schwinden is considered a "C" prospect who had a great first half of the season but has started to regress. It was actually surprising to most Mets analysts that Schwinden is getting this start as they thought it would go to a more highly regarded prospect. Generally, I like to stay away from rookies making their first start because the hitters are unfamiliar with that pitcher and that pitcher's "stuff." That usually gives the pitcher an advantage. However, I don't think Schwinden's new found cutter, which is apparently why he did have some early season success, will keep the Braves "A" lineup at bay today. I think the Braves are ready to break their losing streak and jump over Schwinden early. I trust Minor to keep the Mets to no more than 3 runs and Braves to coast to an easy win in the first game of the double header. I'm taking the Braves -1 RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I struggled whether to make this play or not because I was not able to get 8 and I hate the idea of not getting the push at that number. However, the juice started rolling in on the under even at 7.5 and I thought I better get it at -110 before it gets worse. I never recommend taking a total of 7.5 after it opened at 8, but I am going to take a shot here. Hamels is top 10 MLB stuff across the board when you look at his advanced stats. He is the total package, able to get strikeouts with a K% over 23%, able to get groundballs as evidenced by his GB/FB over 1.6 and able to dominate a game with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the 2.8 range. On the other side, Narveson is a mini Hamels with stats that are worse but not horrible (e.g. K% of 18%, GB/FB of 1.23 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA around 3.8-4.2 range). Narveson's H/A splits show he generally pitches better in Milwaukee, and with Philly not playing Rollings, Utley or Ibanez because of injury or trying to get more righties in the lineup, I think Narveson can limit the Phillies to 4 runs or less. Hamels has generally dominated the Brewers lineup except for Fielder and McGehee, so I feel safe that he pitches another gem tonight. The wind in Milwaukee is strong tonight blowing from left to right at 15 mph. However, I don't know if the roof is closed or open. I called the Miller Park roof hotline, but the message they have up is old from last week's cardinals game. I also do not know who the ump is right now. However, the Brewers have a 11-20 o/u record against lefties and I don't expect them to hurt Hamels too much. This line has dropped steadily and looks to be dropping to -120 juice on the under at 7.5. I'm going to take a shot and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Looking at the lineup's I am actually starting to warm to Cleveland at the price .

This has nothing to do with it, but a wacky stat nonetheless. Huff has a crazy gamelog. If you look at his every other start, starting from 6/3 you get these runs given up......1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0......holy **** and he is on the every other start tonight!

[No coincidences]

Looking at the lineup's I am actually starting to warm to Cleveland at the price .

This has nothing to do with it, but a wacky stat nonetheless. Huff has a crazy gamelog. If you look at his every other start, starting from 6/3 you get these runs given up......1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0......holy **** and he is on the every other start tonight!

I considered them as well, given the White Sox are iffy vs. lefties and are so dysfunctional in general.

Just don't like the Tribe's lineup right now, though.

[Redscot]

Looks like Gibson in Mil, couldn't ask for much more than that ump wise. GL all

[Love The Action]

Damn Braves bullpen...couldn't hold a 2 run lead in the bottom of the 8th against a shit lineup. Hopefully they at least don't blow the push in the bottom of the 9th. Just once, I would like to win a game in the late innings.

[Love The Action]

I will have my first NFL play of the year of the under 48 between NO/GB. Posting my NFL thread shortly. Good luck!