New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**Tommygunn** · 06-13-11, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Small Timer

Atlanta is also the daily free pick which has been doing well

Yeah I count that as a system play

**Formulawiz** · 06-14-11, 05:42 AM

ML plays went 1-1, -0.15 units
YTD 50-29, +14.05 units

plays later today

**Formulawiz** · 06-14-11, 06:37 AM

Today's ML plays. FAV must be < -140

HOU, ARI, LAD, NYY?

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Scientific Approach 13Jun11: PIT, -188 MLW, -179 Filtered (CLE, ARZ, CIN) System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

BM, LAA was a play yesterday, it was good to -134?

Yourself and Formulawiz should be posting the line parameters?
It would be a big help, if we new what the line constraints were, on the plays?
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 07:34 AM

BM, I see what happened with the LAA play yesterday ST had the current M/L at -135 and that was the opening line.
But the line on LAA dropped to -122 making it a play yesterday for S/A.
Drop what you have been doing and start posting the line parameters, becuse some plays do drop out
and come in, as they do with the M/L System?
EX: LAA No Play if >-134 SUN WAS was a play thats 2 wins and we can use them!
Thanks for your help.
shiva

**BrewMaster** · 06-14-11, 07:54 AM

Record Official Start 15May11: 55-52 (+3.09 units)

Scientific Approach 14Jun11:

CLE, -106
PIT, -120 (play if better than +105)
ARZ, -187
CIN, -329
ATL, -181

Filtered (TEX,TB,CWS)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**BrewMaster** · 06-14-11, 07:56 AM

Shiva, I try to do my best to post plays within range of the 25 pt differential, but I cannot watch lines all day. I'll post the ones close to the differential with a "play if better than" statement after. That's the best I can do.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Shiva, I try to do my best to post plays within range of the 25 pt differential, but I cannot watch lines all day. I'll post the ones close to the differential with a "play if better than" statement after. That's the best I can do.

You dont have to watch lines all day, thats not the point.
Just post the line parameters and your done, then check on the lines the next day to see what came in or dropped out.
This will only help you and S/A.
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 08:29 AM

Complimentary Selection for 6/13/2011

Take Arizona W/Collmenter over San Fran W/Cain NO PLAY if > -125

EX: ARZ No Play if >-125
Now you have check the lines 15-20 minutes prior to the start of this game, at a majority of the casinos.
Check if ARZ, is inside the line parameters set by Sportrends?
BOL

**HoulihansTX** · 06-14-11, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(82-74) +4.60Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 13
Bullpen Projection System

Pitt 5.07W (-110)
Angels 3.39 W (-125)
Dodgers 3.26 L (-115)
Brew 3.09 L (+100)
Atl 2.18 L (-115)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(84-77) +3.30Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 14
Bullpen Projection System

Yanks 3.34
Atl 3.02
Dodgers 2.89
Angels 2.96
Brew 2.71
Pitt 2.17

Florida np L2
Detroit np>-150
Balty np L2
Minny np(CWS W2)
Colorado np L2
SF np(Zona W2)

There is a contradiction w/ the recommendation of playing Zona as a Free Play, and this filter listed on Sportrends.
--- Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.
Zona is traveling clear across the country.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 09:11 AM

TPR system went 0-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
48-56 –11.58u

H/A system went 2-1 yesterday.
PIT –108 W
LAA –110 W
LAD –110 L
Start Date 05/29
17-9 +5.11u

Total Plays went 1-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/01
22-17-1 +3.21u

P/T Power Plays went 2-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
3-1 +1.90u

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 09:14 AM

06/14/2011
TPR Plays
No Plays if >-175
BOS 1.6
ARZ 1.3
KC 1.3
CWS 1.0 W/2 MIN W/2 CWS ok
STL 1.7 np L/3
COL 1.5 np L/3

H/A System Plays
No Plays if >-175
ATL
CWS
LAA

Total Plays
All 1/2U
ATL & NYM Over 7 –125
MIN & CWS Over 7.5 –120
SEA & LAA Over 6.5 –110

P/T Power Plays
No Plays if >-175
ATL, CWS

S/A add..
ATL Play if <-156
Filter No Play if ATL >-150
5Dimes ATL -146

**ShivaBowl** · 06-14-11, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

There is a contradiction w/ the recommendation of playing Zona as a Free Play, and this filter listed on Sportrends. --- [FONT="]Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game. [/font][FONT="]Zona is traveling clear across the country.[/font][FONT="][/font][FONT="][/font]

**BrewMaster** · 06-14-11, 10:42 AM

Shiva... CWS filters out against MIN with W2 streak.

**Tommygunn** · 06-14-11, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Shiva... CWS filters out against MIN with W2 streak.

I think he's calling it even because CWS have won 2 in a row

**docvinny** · 06-14-11, 02:16 PM

thanks for posting plays again guys

**rask7rask7** · 06-15-11, 06:19 AM

Best of luck with your picks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-15-11, 07:32 AM

TPR system went 1-2 yesterday.
BOS +114 L
ARZ –115 L
KC +147 W
Start Date 05/01
49-5/8 –12-26u

H/A system went 1-1 yesterday.
ATL –132 L
CWS PPD
LAA –142 W
Start Date 05/29
18-10 +4.97u

Total Plays went 0-1-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/01
22-18-2 +2.11u

P/T Power Plays went 0-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
3-2 +0.58u

**ShivaBowl** · 06-15-11, 09:08 AM

FYI: I have sizable wagers (to win $250.00) on these teams.
And I thought I would share them with you.
I’m thinking.. I may start up the Ugly Dog thread again? BOL.
8:05 PM ET Milwaukee Brewers +100
7:10 PM ET Boston Red Sox –125
10:10 PM ET Seattle Mariners -120

**HoulihansTX** · 06-15-11, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(84-77) +3.30Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 14
Bullpen Projection System

Yanks 3.34 W (-140)
Atl 3.02 L (-130)
Dodgers 2.89 L (-125)
Angels 2.96 W (-140)
Brew 2.71 L (-140)
Pitt 2.17 W (+130)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(87-80) +2.65Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 15
Bullpen Projection System

San Fran 9.28
Cincy 5.19
Yanks 3.10
Angels 2.96
Boston 1.75
Pitt 1.02

No Plays
Atl np L2 8.13
Stl np L2 4.78
Florida np L2(GM1 & GM2) 2.72
Balty np L2 2.61
Minny np(CWS W2) 1.99

**barts185** · 06-15-11, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

I think he's calling it even because CWS have won 2 in a row

Seems like there's been a little bit of this lately (not a lot, but a few games), so just trying to get a clarification if we are changing the filter from

Never bet against a team on a 2 game or longer winning streak.
Never bet on a team on a 2 game or longer losing streak.

to

Don't bet against a team on a 2 game or longer winning streak UNLESS the team to bet on has a winning streak which is just as long or longer.

Don't bet on a team on a 2 game or longer losing streak UNLESS the other team also has a losing streak which is just as long, or longer.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-15-11, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Florida np L2(GM1 & GM2) Stl np L2 Balty np L2 Atl np L2 Minny np(CWS W2)

Hey HoulihansTX, could you start posting the numbers along with your BPR No Plays? I don’t use the no play filters with the BPR System.
It would save me on time, if I didn’t have to go back and look them up on ST.
Thanks for your help!
BOL, Shiva

**ShivaBowl** · 06-15-11, 10:33 AM

06/15/2011

TPR System Plays
COL 1.5
BOS 1.5
KC 1.3
STL 1.6 np L/4
ARZ 1.3 np SFO W/2

H/A System Plays
WAS
CWS 1/2U W/W2
CHC

P/T Power Plays
BOS
CWS 1/2U W/W2
SFO 1/2U

**BrewMaster** · 06-15-11, 10:54 AM

14Jun11 Result: 2-3
Record Official Start 15May11: 57-55 (+1.87 units)

Scientific Approach 15Jun11:

CIN, -116 (play if better than +109)
NYY, -165 (play if better than -140)
NYM, -130
BOS, -175
PIT, -237
CWS, -201
KC, -130

Filtered (STL, MLW, TOR)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**joeytunes** · 06-15-11, 11:03 AM

i liked ugly dogs...shiv

**BrewMaster** · 06-15-11, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

FYI: I have sizable wagers (to win $250.00) on these teams.
And I thought I would share them with you.
I’m thinking.. I may start up the Ugly Dog thread again? BOL.
8:05 PM ET Milwaukee Brewers +100
7:10 PM ET Boston Red Sox –125
10:10 PM ET Seattle Mariners -120

Please do!

**Small Timer** · 06-15-11, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

FYI: I have sizable wagers (to win $250.00) on these teams.
And I thought I would share them with you.
I’m thinking.. I may start up the Ugly Dog thread again? BOL.
8:05 PM ET Milwaukee Brewers +100
7:10 PM ET Boston Red Sox –125
10:10 PM ET Seattle Mariners -120

Thanks for the heads up Shiva.

**Tommygunn** · 06-15-11, 01:01 PM

I hate to sound like grilldogs but can we have ML Wiz before 3pm games start?

Thanks

**gryfyn1** · 06-15-11, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

I hate to sound like grilldogs but can we have ML Wiz before 3pm games start?

Thanks

you can see it here

www.sportrends.com

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

although Ill admit that im bit confused by the example given, it seems to say that is the number they had (projected moneyline) and the offered line differ, go with what Vegas is saying.

example for day the projection show that Toronto should be +105, but they are listed a -170, so go with Toronto @ -170 (filter not taken into account)

**ShivaBowl** · 06-15-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

14Jun11 Result: 2-3 Record Official Start 15May11: 57-55 (+1.87 units) Scientific Approach 15Jun11: )
NYY, -165 (play if better than -140)

Sorry BM Play NYY, If better then -140 but not over -150 ?
Or play nyy if <-140 ?
thanks

**barts185** · 06-15-11, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by gryfyn1

you can see it here

www.sportrends.com

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

although Ill admit that im bit confused by the example given, it seems to say that is the number they had (projected moneyline) and the offered line differ, go with what Vegas is saying.

example for day the projection show that Toronto should be +105, but they are listed a -170, so go with Toronto @ -170 (filter not taken into account)

You have it correct. The moneyline systems says that when there appears to be value, there actually isn't, so take the side where you are getting the bad value (once you take the filters into account).

**Formulawiz** · 06-15-11, 03:31 PM

ML system went 0-2, -2.45 units
YTD 50-31, +11.6 units

Todays plays

COL?, PIT, NYY

**Formulawiz** · 06-16-11, 06:30 AM

ML system went 2-0, +2 units
YTD 52-31, +13.6 units

Plays later today

**Formulawiz** · 06-16-11, 07:43 AM

There seems to be no ML plays today

**BrewMaster** · 06-16-11, 08:04 AM

15Jun11 Result: 4-2 (CIN line filtered out stated requirement)
Record Official Start 15May11: 61-57 (+3.60 units)

Scientific Approach 16Jun11:

CLE, -155
BOS, -145
SF, -122 (play at +103 or better)

Filtered (STL, MLW, TOR)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck