New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**joeytunes** · 06-06-11, 07:45 AM

does anyone pay for the sportstrend thing

**ShivaBowl** · 06-06-11, 08:00 AM

TPR system went 4-3 yesterday.
+0.44u
Start Date 05/01
43-43 -0.60u

H/A system went 0-2 yesterday.
-3.07u
Start Date 05/29
5-3 –0.52u

H/A Total Plays went 2-0 yesterday.
+2.00u
Start Date 06/01
6-1 +5.00u

**ShivaBowl** · 06-06-11, 08:00 AM

06/06/11
H/A System Plays
MLW, SEA, TAM,

H/A Total Plays
FLA & MLW Over 8
CWS & SEA Over 8
LAA & TAM Over 7.5
TEX & DET Over 9.5
PHI & LAD Over 7.5
SFO & WAS Over 6

TPR System Plays
No Plays
CLE 1.4 L/4
CWS 1.0 L/2
COL 1.2 SD W/3

**ShivaBowl** · 06-06-11, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays, fav must be < -140 MIL, TOR, TB?

Bump

**losemyloot** · 06-06-11, 08:08 AM

Yesterdays PT Power Plays 6/5
CIN -129 L
TOR +130 W
BOS -135 n/p
PIT +170 L
DET +135 W
LAA +110 L
COL -110 L
TB +135 L
Yesterday 2-5 -2.74 Units
Start Date 05/01
67-82 -8.82 Units

Todays PT Power Plays 6/6
LAD
WAS
n/p if >-130

Filtered Out
CIN n/p L2
FLA n/p L4
CWS n/p L2
LAA n/p L2

**BrewMaster** · 06-06-11, 08:20 AM

05Jun11 Result: 1-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 39-41, -2.30 units

Scientific Approach 06Jun11:

SEA, -204

Filtered (CLE, KC, COL)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-06-11, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(60-50) +6.7Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 5
Bullpen Projection System

Atl 11.02 L (-115)
Seattle 4.54 W (-145)
San Fran 1.89 W (-105)
Detroit 1.67 W (+135)
Brew Crew 1.59 W (+125)
Cincy 1.39 L (-130)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(64-52) +8.85Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 6
Bullpen Projection System

Brew Crew 5.95
Seattle 5.56
Washington 3.71
San Diego 3.69
Toronto 2.01
Tampa 1.10

Indians np L2
Cincy np L2
Tx np(Det W2)

**HoulihansTX** · 06-06-11, 09:35 AM

Did everyone get Mr Carrots PM? What do you guys think?

**BrewMaster** · 06-06-11, 10:29 AM

Great analysis. We need someone to do that. I tried but with tracking the plays plus the analytics it just takes too much time. I'll take a deeper dive into the numbers later.

Thanks for the efforts Mr. C!

**HoulihansTX** · 06-06-11, 10:37 AM

Yea I'm going to look @his numbers tonight. I'm on currently on the road.

**Formulawiz** · 06-06-11, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Did everyone get Mr Carrots PM? What do you guys think?

No can you post the PM

**Formulawiz** · 06-06-11, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by joeytunes

does anyone pay for the sportstrend thing

What thing are you referring to

**joeytunes** · 06-06-11, 11:01 AM

whats carrots pm? re post?

**GGZOLA** · 06-06-11, 11:38 AM

not bad units at all so far in 2 months

**ShivaBowl** · 06-06-11, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

No can you post the PM

Source; Mr.Carrot
I am working on the bullpen system deeply.
You can find there how each filter is working
L2 - works great
W2 - doesnt work
-150 - doesnt work
statistics for no filters applied, all filtres applied etc.

And I added new filter
no play if bullpen is under 1,This filter is neutral/works

There are home/away teams stats and favs/dogs stats too.

If this spreedsheet cant help you to improve system, sorry for that
Thanks Mr.Carrot its a big help.

**The Dream** · 06-06-11, 12:04 PM

Yes I have used it for football, basketball, and baseball

**The Dream** · 06-06-11, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by joeytunes

does anyone pay for the sportstrend thing

Yes I have it for football, basketball, and baseball

**Formulawiz** · 06-06-11, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Source; Mr.Carrot
I am working on the bullpen system deeply.
You can find there how each filter is working
L2 - works great
W2 - doesnt work
-150 - doesnt work
statistics for no filters applied, all filtres applied etc.

And I added new filter
no play if bullpen is under 1,This filter is neutral/works

There are home/away teams stats and favs/dogs stats too.

If this spreedsheet cant help you to improve system, sorry for that
Thanks Mr.Carrot its a big help.

This looks like a terrific tool. Can someone explain it in more detail. Sercondly can we as an individual use the spreadsheet. If so, where do we enter the stats

**BrewMaster** · 06-06-11, 02:22 PM

I added a line to compute winning percentage.

TOP 3 winning percentage (%):
-150 = 69%
W2 only = 67%
L2 under filters = 61%

Mr. Carrot, could you explain what exactly L2, "under filters" means? And does the under 1,8 mean the value of the BPR number that Houli normally provides?

**Dollar Bin** · 06-06-11, 04:07 PM

Thanks for the spreadsheet. Definitely useful.

**Mr.Carrot** · 06-06-11, 04:12 PM

Guys, I havent wanted public it now

If was just to analyze and I was wonder what do you think about it and how it can improve your systems.

L2 - is current filter no play on team with 2 and more losses in a row and this filter is working great, its saved us money

L2 + W2 is similar filter as L2, just it is together if play is on L2 and againts W2 together
W2 - is current filter no play against team with 2 or more winners in a row. This filter doesnt work as well, this filter has stolen us 18 winners and saved 9 losses only
-150 is current filter, no play if -150
under 1,8 is my personal filtr, no play if bullpen is under |1,8|

You can find on the list "detail" detailed data and try found any other filters(home, dogs...)
I tried use sweep filter but it is neutral filter.

There are also total WL stats used diferent filters
first - no filters applied
SBR plays
Al filters applied and my plays

Just check it

I dont want you must change anything in your current filters, just to let you know how it works and try find some new filters.
You know, more heads can find better ways to win.
I hope we can find some good working filters (or not) for the second half of the season

GL and sorry for my EN

**duocargo** · 06-06-11, 04:26 PM

nice work Mr.Carrot

**grilldog24** · 06-06-11, 04:38 PM

any moneyline plays tonite ?

**linedrivr** · 06-06-11, 04:44 PM

good luck tonight fellas.

**barts185** · 06-06-11, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by grilldog24

any moneyline plays tonite ?

UNOFFICIALLY, I would say MIL, MIN, TOR, TAM. Also SDG if -105 or worse, but that looks like it's moved out of range. Again, these are unofficial, wait for Formulawiz to confirm, only posting since it's getting close.

Edit - MIN is a play, I mistakenly removed it. Sorry. Projected line is CLE -185 / MIN +185, so anything CLE -160 or better / MIN +160 or worse I think would be a play on MIN.

I didn't see post 735 or would not have responded. I'm not looking to get into any of the issues like last year, so am staying out of it (even when I'm positive mistakes are being made) and just trying to help when possible. Sorry if my posting of what I thought were the plays caused any issues.

**staf** · 06-06-11, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by grilldog24

any moneyline plays tonite ?

check post 735

**Mr.Carrot** · 06-07-11, 01:43 AM

It takes about 1 hour daily fill the spreedsheet thats no prob, but find some filters or plays, it takes 4 or 5 hours.
For example check L2 filter on home teams etc. There are many of scopes to checking.

Please remember, data is for 3 weeks only.
GL

**rask7rask7** · 06-07-11, 04:56 AM

Very good record so far!

**Formulawiz** · 06-07-11, 06:02 AM

ML plays went 2-1, +0.85 units
YTD 42-21, +14.85

ML plays later today

**Formulawiz** · 06-07-11, 06:47 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav < -140

ATL?, COL, TOR.
ATL L2 but FLA L5. Up to you if you want to play this game.

**BrewMaster** · 06-07-11, 07:40 AM

06Jun11 Result: 0-1
Record Official Start 15May11: 39-42, -3.40 units

Scientific Approach 07Jun11:

PIT, -120
STL, -173
SD, -111

Filtered (CLE, NYY, WAS, OAK, TOR)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-07-11, 08:22 AM

TPR system went 0-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
43-43 -0.60u

H/A system went 2-1 yesterday.
MLW –130 W
SEA –103 L
TAM –134 W
PHI >-175 np W
SFG >-175 np W
DET np TEX w/5 W
+0.97
Start Date 05/29
7-4 +0.45u

H/A Total Plays went 3-3 yesterday.
Start Date 06/01
9-4 +4.99u

**losemyloot** · 06-07-11, 08:32 AM

Yesterdays PT Power Plays 6/6
LAD +175 L
WAS +170 L
Yesterday 0-2 -2.0 Units
Start Date 05/01
67-84 -10.82 Units

Todays PT Power Plays 6/7
MIN
PIT
CWS
SFG 1/2U (Currently n/p at -145)
n/p if >-130

Filtered Out
NYY n/p BOS W3
NYM n/p MIL W4

**HoulihansTX** · 06-07-11, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(64-52) +8.85Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 6
Bullpen Projection System

Brew Crew 5.95 W (-130)
Seattle 5.56 L (+100)
Washington 3.71 L (+170)
San Diego 3.69 L (-105)
Toronto 2.01 L (-115)
Tampa 1.10 W (-140)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(66-56) +6.65Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 7
Bullpen Projection System

Seattle 8.62
Cincy 4.92
Stl 4.76
Toronto 4.12
San Diego 3.57
Detroit 3.28
Zona 2.60

Dodgers np(Philly W2)
Cleveland np L2
Brew np >-150
Wash np(SF W2)
Atl np L2

**ShivaBowl** · 06-07-11, 09:03 AM

06/07/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays
MLW np >-175
OAK np IP <-20
ARZ np PP-DIF<-50
DET np PP-DIF <-50
CWS np H/A-IP-DIF >+10
TOR np KC IP <-20

H/A Total Plays
MLW & NYM Over 8
CWS & SEA Over 7
PIT & ARZ Over 7.5
TEX & DET Over 9.5

TPR System Plays
COL 1.2
STL 1.2
ARZ 1.1
CWS 1.1
CLE 1.4 np L/4