Shut Out System

[apwmel]

Thanks for updating.

[pagodo]

Hi everyone,

I've been thinking about doing this for a few days now and finally got some time to sit down and get it done, killing time at the hotel.
This is basically a full set of this year's system losses which I think tells you all you need to know about the risks that you take with these systems. What the guys who started the thread have been saying all along is that this is a bankroll-killing system if you chase, you absolutely have to use a labby and you have to manage it very carefully, especially if you plan on going after all sets of games. I think this year's five losses were, with one exception, easily avoidable on part of the bettor and I also think there is a simple pattern emerging (on both sides of the system, or with both systems as you prefer) from these results: it's not a good idea fading a good team playing at home / tailing a weaker team playing away. I know I'm stating the obvious, but to some, especially the ones jumping in and seeing a 250-4 system record, it might not be as clear-cut.

The bottom line is: use common sense and apply your own filters (on top of proper money management).

[The one exception would be Detroit, it was very unusual for the Mariners to hit like they did for three games in a row, I was shocked to actually see them sweeping the Tigers at Comerica Park in this fashion. That's MLB baseball, isn't it, where the seemingly impossible occurs with startling frequency.]

I'll be updating this list whenever a loss arrives -- fingers crossed for as few as possible!

--
2011 Shutout System Losses:

--
SYSTEM 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase)

(1.) Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee @ San Diego, 0-1
game 1, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 7-6
game 2, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 3-2
game 3, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 3-1
game 4, Milwaukee vs Washington, 11-3
game 5, Milwaukee vs Washington, 7-6
game 6, Milwaukee vs Washington, 6-4


--
SYSTEM 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase)

(1.) Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore vs Texas, 5-0
game 1, Baltimore vs Texas, 1-13
game 2, Baltimore vs Texas, 0-3
game 3, Baltimore @ NY Yankees, 4-7
game 4, Baltimore @ NY Yankees, 5-6
game 5, Baltimore @ Cleveland, 2-8
game 6, Baltimore @ Cleveland, 3-8


(2.) Detroit Tigers

Detroit vs Ch White Sox, 3-0
game 1, Detroit vs Seattle, 3-7
game 2, Detroit vs Seattle, 1-10
game 3, Detroit vs Seattle, 2-7
game 4, Detroit @ Cleveland, 5-9
game 5, Detroit @ Cleveland, 2-3
game 6, Detroit @ Cleveland, 4-5


(3.) Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee @ Houston, 5-0
game 1, Milwaukee @ Houston, 1-2
game 2, Milwaukee @ Houston, 0-5
game 3, Milwaukee @ Atlanta, 2-6
game 4, Milwaukee @ Atlanta, 3-8
game 5, Milwaukee @ Atlanta, 0-8
game 6, Milwaukee @ Atlanta, 1-2


(4.) Oakland Athletics

Oakland vs LA Angels, 14-0
game 1, Oakland vs Minnesota, 3-4
game 2, Oakland vs Minnesota, 1-11
game 3, Oakland @ San Francisco, 1-2
game 4, Oakland @ San Francisco, 0-3
game 5, Oakland @ San Francisco, 4-5
game 6, Oakland @ LA Angels, 1-4

--

[JW Cash]

great job on this shut out system mitch by boy....what else ya got up your sleeve

[goodone]

A 6 game chase, LOL with 3 teams omitted (those 3 teams were probably omitted because they represented the 3 system losses).

Since its a 6 game chase, (assuming -110 per bet), you would have to win about 69 out of each 70 bets to break even.

Therefore a 285-3 record is NOT that impressive especially considering that the sample has already been tinkered with by a 3 team omission.

COMPLETELY WORTHLESS SYSTEM!!!

Actually, your contribution to this thread is the only worthless thing in here. So please, I would like to ask you, that if you think this all is so worthless, you just move on and let everyone else just be.

And all others in here: please do not respond to this guy and let's just keep the thread going as it was: positively

[dlunc3]

Good luck on Cleveland today boys

[c-fut]

Just missed the Cleveland play. BOL to everyone

[DustyDiamond]

The basic rule of the labby is to cross off two numbers after a win and only add one after a loss; with the 3-strike you simply cross off three after a win. You're clearing lines faster, so the key is deciding on a proper starting unit size. I went with the 3-strike as I'm running lots of lines for different systems and plays and more numbers give me more flexibility with variance.

An example; starting line:
20-20-20-20-20-20
I'm betting on Game 1 and win, cross off three:
20-20-20
Next day, betting on another Game 1 (favorite, 80 to win 60) and lost:
20-20-20-80
I always distribute the loss throughout a line (or two, but never more than two), so let's say it could look like this:
40-30-30-40
And next day, betting on Game 2 to win 100.

Thank you!!! Points for you.

[dlunc3]

great win tonight boys

[zeusky]

Good win with the Indians today; nice work Pagodo.

[cancan]

Nice work once again

[pagodo]

everyone!

The Cleveland bats did not explode as I said they would, but fortunately Carrasco and the RP's got the job done at last. The Tigers delivered in the 10th as well for us fading TB.

Lots of risky plays in system 2, I think I might go with the Nats as they're playing six at home, but I need to check some numbers first.
Fading Pittsburgh, LAA and SD -- with confidence

*

UPDATE
Tuesday, 6/14

Shutouts on Monday (6/13):
CLE @ NYY, 1-0
ChC vs MIL, 1-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/13)
fade Tampa Bay, game 3
fade Pittsburgh, game 1
fade San Diego, game 1
fade LA Angels, game 1

Plays for 6/14:
fade Pittsburgh, game 2
fade San Diego, game 2
fade LA Angels, game 2
fade NY Yankees, game 1
fade Milwaukee, game 1


Game 1: 69-68
Game 2: 36-29
Game 3: 14-15
Game 4: 8-7
Game 5: 3-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (133-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/13)
tail Cleveland, game 5
tail NY Mets, game 1

Plays for 6/14:
tail Baltimore, game 3
tail NY Mets, game 2
tail Washington, game 1
tail Kansas City, game 1
tail Cleveland, game 1
tail Ch Cubs, game 1


Game 1: 65-70
Game 2: 38-31
Game 3: 15-15
Game 4: 4-11
Game 5: 3-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (129-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702.
---

[pipmenow]

Thank for the updates. The Labby part can get pretty confusing. I started system 1 (fade) yesterday.
fade - Pitts so my play was NYM +1.5, I took the plus line because they were dogs.
fade - SD so the play was COL money-line
fade - LAA sos the play was Seattle +1.5, underdog

Labby set up as follows:
Game 1 - 5 5 5 5
Game 2 - 5 5 5 5
game 3 - 5 5 5 5
game 4 - 5 5 5 5
game 5 - 5 5 5 5
game 6 - 5 5 5 5

Since all three games lost and my total lost was 51, I split it up to three line, the new line look like this:
Game 1 - 5 5 5 5 17
Game 2 - 5 5 5 5 17
game 3 - 5 5 5 5 17
game 4 - 5 5 5 5
game 5 - 5 5 5 5
game 6 - 5 5 5 5

6/14 plays
Game 2: Atlanta (B) ml, St. Louis (B) ml, Oakland (B) ml,
Game 1: TX (A) ml, NYY (A) ml.
All to win 22.

Any comments. Thanks.

[pagodo]

Thank for the updates. The Labby part can get pretty confusing. I started system 1 (fade) yesterday.
fade - Pitts so my play was NYM +1.5, I took the plus line because they were dogs.
fade - SD so the play was COL money-line
fade - LAA sos the play was Seattle +1.5, underdog

Labby set up as follows:
Game 1 - 5 5 5 5
Game 2 - 5 5 5 5
game 3 - 5 5 5 5
game 4 - 5 5 5 5
game 5 - 5 5 5 5
game 6 - 5 5 5 5

Since all three games lost and my total lost was 51, I split it up to three line, the new line look like this:
Game 1 - 5 5 5 5 17
Game 2 - 5 5 5 5 17
game 3 - 5 5 5 5 17
game 4 - 5 5 5 5
game 5 - 5 5 5 5
game 6 - 5 5 5 5

6/14 plays
Game 2: Atlanta (B) ml, St. Louis (B) ml, Oakland (B) ml,
Game 1: TX (A) ml, NYY (A) ml.
All to win 22.

Any comments. Thanks.

The labby lines are fine, you can set your labby up however you wish, just be aware of how they could grow with a few game 4's or 5's down the line, so keep your unit size / labby line size in check. Also, there's no need to play plus run lines with these systems, the juice will kill you, but that's just me, if you're feeling comfortable with +1,5 juice, that's fine.

You got me with the plays though. If you're fading with system 1, your B plays tonight would be Houston, Colorado and Seattle and your A plays would be Ch Cubs and Texas.

[pipmenow]

You're right. Thank you.

[pagodo]

Verlander, Karstens and Weaver had massive games and as a result we've got not one, not two, but three conflicting chases

UPDATE
Wednesday, 6/15

Shutouts on Tuesday (6/14):
DET vs CLE, 4-0
TB vs BOS, 4-0
PIT @ HOU, 1-0
LAA @ SEA, 4-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/14)
fade Pittsburgh, game 2
fade San Diego, game 2
fade LA Angels, game 2
fade NY Yankees, game 1
fade Milwaukee, game 1

Plays for 6/15:
fade Pittsburgh, game 3
fade LA Angels, game 3
fade NY Yankees, game 2
fade Cleveland, game 1
fade Boston, game 1
fade Houston, game 1
fade Seattle, game 1


Game 1: 70-69
Game 2: 37-31
Game 3: 14-15
Game 4: 8-7
Game 5: 3-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (135-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/14)
tail Baltimore, game 3
tail NY Mets, game 2
tail Washington, game 1
tail Kansas City, game 1
tail Ch Cubs, game 1
tail Cleveland, game 1

Plays for 6/15:
tail Baltimore, game 4
tail Cleveland, game 2
tail Tampa Bay, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail Pittsburgh, game 1
tail LA Angels, game 1


Game 1: 68-71
Game 2: 39-31
Game 3: 15-16
Game 4: 4-11
Game 5: 3-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (133-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702.
---

[cancan]

Good luck for today plays.
And some points

[pagodo]

Good luck for today plays.
And some points

Thank you!

The system is doing very good, hope everyone's making $ !

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone keeping the good vibe in this thread. And also for the points!

One more thing: Prime, zeusky, I will be unable to post system updates on Friday and Saturday (6/17 and 6/18). I'll be happy to pick up the mantle again on Sunday.

GL all!

[atari5200]

Pagodo, can I ask you a question about conflicting plays and the 3 strike labby? If you take both teams and the winning team will allow you to cross off 3 numbers while the loss will add on 1 number, then you'll make progress with 2 numbers crossed off. The lines will get thicker with bigger numbers but they'll never get long. Have you thought about this method and taking both sides of every game?

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Thursday, 6/16

Shutouts on Wednesday (6/15):
BOS @ TB, 3-0
NYM @ ATL, 4-0
WSH vs STL, 10-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/15)
fade Pittsburgh, game 3
fade LA Angels, game 3
fade NY Yankees, game 2
fade Cleveland, game 1
fade Boston, game 1
fade Houston, game 1
fade Seattle, game 1

Plays for 6/16:
fade Pittsburgh, game 4
fade NY Yankees, game 3
fade Cleveland, game 2
fade Boston, game 2
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade Atlanta, game 1
fade St Louis, game 1
(pending: fade Seattle, game 2)

Game 1: 71-72
Game 2: 37-32
Game 3: 15-16
Game 4: 8-7
Game 5: 3-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (137-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/15)
tail Baltimore, game 4
tail Cleveland, game 2
tail Tampa Bay, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail Pittsburgh, game 1
tail LA Angels, game 1

Plays for 6/16:
tail Baltimore, game 5
tail Tampa Bay, game 2
tail Detroit, game 2
tail NY Mets, game 1
tail Boston, game 1
tail Washington, game 1
(pending: tail LA Angels, game 2)

Game 1: 69-74
Game 2: 40-31
Game 3: 15-16
Game 4: 4-12
Game 5: 3-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (135-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702.
---

[pagodo]

Pagodo, can I ask you a question about conflicting plays and the 3 strike labby? If you take both teams and the winning team will allow you to cross off 3 numbers while the loss will add on 1 number, then you'll make progress with 2 numbers crossed off. The lines will get thicker with bigger numbers but they'll never get long. Have you thought about this method and taking both sides of every game?

Yes, I have!

The 3-strike method suits these systems perfectly also because of the conflicting plays

My first thought was to start with just several lines and not follow every chase; but after giving it some thought, I decided on simple lines with three numbers, so that a win could clear a starting line. I still won't follow every chase, but it will be most of them. The trick then is to have a starting line (which is pretty much the basic unit size) with low starting value, which in my case is roughly 0.2% of roll.

I know you've been following this thread since the beginning and since I'm a relative newbie (at SBRF) I'd love to know how you have been tackling these systems.

[angtank]

Nice system...

[cancan]

Good luck with your picks.

[atari5200]

well pagodo, i'm still trying to figure why we wouldn't just take the most evenly matched teams with the closest odds and play both sides. This is about betting both teams to win and i'm not talking about the shut out system or any other system. The 3 strike labby should work in theory and produce wins with lines being cleared continuously by simply taking both teams to win.

something has to be missing here...how could this be? why wouldn't we all just do that and print money?

[pagodo]

well pagodo, i'm still trying to figure why we wouldn't just take the most evenly matched teams with the closest odds and play both sides. This is about betting both teams to win and i'm not talking about the shut out system or any other system. The 3 strike labby should work in theory and produce wins with lines being cleared continuously by simply taking both teams to win.

something has to be missing here...how could this be? why wouldn't we all just do that and print money?

I've been asking myself the same question over and over again

I'm not too good at mathematics and I'm not a labby expert (just did some reading on it and backtesting possible line management options); but it also seems obvious to me that if you would do that, simply bet on both teams in a matchup to win, you would always score 50% of your bets, clear lines and earn profit. It's pretty much what IceBet is doing with the overs and unders -- betting all the games to go over (one set of lines) and at the same time all the games to go under (another set of lines).

So I honestly don't know, we would have to consult a labby expert with such a simple question as ours.

The one thing that comes to mind though, is that, if you were to bet on matchups / both teams to win, you probably wouldn't be able to do that at one bookie long-term, you would have to manage one set of lines and bets at one bookie and the other at another bookie.

--
Also, guys, just to give a heads up, it will be a bit hectic for me the next few days, so I'll only drop by for a minute to the forum tomorrow and on Saturday and I won't be able to post the updates; but will surely be back on Sunday.

Good luck, everyone!

[atari5200]

alright, so we can only wonder. I've played this system 3 different ways. An evenly distributed multiple labby line for all the games produced the best result for me. I tried making separate lines for games 1 and 2 , then 3 and 4, and 5 and 6 but only games 1 and 2 cleared consistently.

now i lean heavily on only playing games 1 and 2. If a shut out another team and they played well, we got them again to win once more. By the time they lose 3 or 4 in a row and go to game 4 or 5, who really cares if they shut someone out 3 or 4 games ago? Do they as a team even remember it? the fresh game 1 fade/tail is the best one to carry the 50-54% win rate. The rest of the games (3-6) should be based on rpi, opponents hot bats, streaks, pitchers, and overall feeling about the game itself.

Good luck!

[cancan]

good luck today, Pagodo

[GGPLAYER]

I never thought it was possible to lose 4 games in a row fading the Pittsburgh Pirates!

[pipmenow]

At one time I used a good labby method to play both sides of the over/under in NBA. The same problem always comes up. You can still have a bad run and the bets get big. You can start with small profit per bet, but it takes forever to built a bankroll. It's a tough nut to crack.

[GGPLAYER]

Anyone updating these today? I think these are the plays...

Fade
5 Pitt (unreal this team has won 4 in a row)
4 NYY (you gonna fade them against the Cubs) I may regret this statement
3 Bos
2 Sea
2 Atl (should have lost last night)
1 Fla
1 CWS

Tail:
3 TB
2 NYM
2 LAA
1 Philly
1 Min

I think that's right. If not then fix it.

[pagodo]

Thanks for filling in, GGPlayer!

One more chase in the tail section of the system, game 2 on the Angels.

I'll put a quick update up tomorrow morning (I might just post AE's picks from my phone in the service plays section later) and be back with a full update on Sunday.

Good luck, everyone!

--
game 5 (Cleveland) looks like a lock, doesn't it

[dlunc3]

good win boys

[pagodo]

Fantastic night, eight series finished!
Just a bit of a letdown that there were no shutouts, but there still are plays on the board for tonight:

fade Boston, game 4 (looking risky from the beginning)
fade Seattle, game 3

tail NY Mets, game 3
tail Philadelphia, game 2

I'll be back with a full update tomorrow morning,
GL all!

[cancan]

Keep up the good work guys!

[angtank]

Yeah buddy!!!

[GGPLAYER]

Pitt finally lost a game! If Bos wins today I'll start fading them tomorrow.